• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction interval

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Performance effectiveness of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatricrisk of mortality III (PRISM III) in pediatric patients with intensive care in single institution: Retrospective study (단일 병원에서 소아 중환자의 예후인자 예측을 위한 PIM2 (pediatric index of mortality 2)와 PRIMS III (pediatric risk of mortality)의 유효성 평가 - 후향적 조사 -)

  • Hwang, Hui Seung;Lee, Na Young;Han, Seung Beom;Kwak, Ga Young;Lee, Soo Young;Chung, Seung Yun;Kang, Jin Han;Jeong, Dae Chul
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1158-1164
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : To investigate the discriminative ability of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatric risk of mortality III (PRISM III) in predicting mortality in children admitted into the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods : We retrospectively analyzed variables of PIM2 and PRISM III based on medical records with children cared for in a single hospital ICU from January 2003 to December 2007. Exclusions were children who died within 2 h of admission into ICU or hopeless discharge. We used Students t test and ANOVA for general characteristics and for correlation between survivors and non-survivors for variables of PIM2 and PRISM III. In addition, we performed multiple logistic regression analysis for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for discrimination, and calculated standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for estimation of prediction. Results : We collected 193 medical records but analyzed 190 events because three children died within 2 h of ICU admission. The variables of PIM2 correlated with survival, except for the presence of post-procedure and low risk. In PRISM III, there was a significant correlation for cardiovascular/neurologic signs, arterial blood gas analysis but not for biochemical and hematologic data. Discriminatory performance by ROC showed an area under the curve 0.858 (95% confidence interval; 0.779-0.938) for PIM2, 0.798 (95% CI; 0.686-0.891) for PRISM III, respectively. Further, SMR was calculated approximately as 1 for the 2 systems, and multiple logistic regression analysis showed ${\chi}^2(13)=14.986$, P=0.308 for PIM2, ${\chi}^2(13)=12.899$, P=0.456 for PRISM III in Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. However, PIM2 was significant for PRISM III in the likelihood ratio test (${\chi}^2(4)=55.3$, P<0.01). Conclusion : We identified two acceptable scoring systems (PRISM III, PIM2) for the prediction of mortality in children admitted into the ICU. PIM2 was more accurate and had a better fit than PRISM III on the model tested.

Quantification of Temperature Effects on Flowering Date Determination in Niitaka Pear (신고 배의 개화기 결정에 미치는 온도영향의 정량화)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Jin-Hee;Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Seung-Heui;Park, Gun-Hwan;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2009
  • Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from $4^{\circ}C$ to $10^{\circ}C$ (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.

Quantitative Elemental Analysis in Soils by using Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy(LIBS) (레이저유도붕괴분광법을 활용한 토양의 정량분석)

  • Zhang, Yong-Seon;Lee, Gye-Jun;Lee, Jeong-Tae;Hwang, Seon-Woong;Jin, Yong-Ik;Park, Chan-Won;Moon, Yong-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.399-407
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    • 2009
  • Laser induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS) is an simple analysis method for directly quantifying many kinds of soil micro-elements on site using a small size of laser without pre-treatment at any property of materials(solid, liquid and gas). The purpose of this study were to find an optimum condition of the LIBS measurement including wavelengths for quantifying soil elements, to relate spectral properties to the concentration of soil elements using LIBS as a simultaneous un-breakdown quantitative analysis technology, which can be applied for the safety assessment of agricultural products and precision agriculture, and to compare the results with a standardized chemical analysis method. Soil samples classified as fine-silty, mixed, thermic Typic Hapludalf(Memphis series) from grassland and uplands in Tennessee, USA were collected, crushed, and prepared for further analysis or LIBS measurement. The samples were measured using LIBS ranged from 200 to 600 nm(0.03 nm interval) with a Nd:YAG laser at 532 nm, with a beam energy of 25 mJ per pulse, a pulse width of 5 ns, and a repetition rate of 10 Hz. The optimum wavelength(${\lambda}nm$) of LIBS for estimating soil and plant elements were 308.2 nm for Al, 428.3 nm for Ca, 247.8 nm for T-C, 438.3 nm for Fe, 766.5 nm for K, 85.2 nm for Mg, 330.2 nm for Na, 213.6 nm for P, 180.7 nm for S, 288.2 nm for Si, and 351.9 nm for Ti, respectively. Coefficients of determination($r^2$) of calibration curve using standard reference soil samples for each element from LIBS measurement were ranged from 0.863 to 0.977. In comparison with ICP-AES(Inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy) measurement, measurement error in terms of relative standard error were calculated. Silicon dioxide(SiO2) concentration estimated from two methods showed good agreement with -3.5% of relative standard error. The relative standard errors for the other elements were high. It implies that the prediction accuracy is low which might be caused by matrix effect such as particle size and constituent of soils. It is necessary to enhance the measurement and prediction accuracy of LIBS by improving pretreatment process, standard reference soil samples, and measurement method for a reliable quantification method.

Prediction of Parthenogenetic Developmental Potential by Polar Body Extrusion and First Cleavage on In Vitro Maturation and Development of Porcine Follicular Oocytes (돼지 난모 세포의 Ethanol 처리에 의한 단위 발생에 있어서 극체 방출란과 분할란 선별에 따른 배발달율 비교)

  • Kim, H.J.;Cho, S.R.;Choe, J.Y.;Choi, S.H.;Han, M.H.;Son, D.S.;Lee, S.S.;Sang, B.D.;Ryu, I.S.;Kim, I.C.;Kim, S.J.;Kim, I.H.;Kim, S.K.
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.121-126
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study was carried out to examine the selection effects of in vitro matured porcine follicular oocytes with polar body extrusion and early cleavage as non-invasive marker to know the developmental competence in advance. The porcine oocytes matured for 48 h were examined the polar body extrusion. The examined oocytes were matured for additional $16{\sim}18h$ and activated with 7% ethanol and cultured in $5{\mu}g/ml$ cytochalasin B for 5 h for diploid formation. The treated oocytes were cultured and examined the cleavage after 48 h and continued culturing for 5 days. The oocytes of 21.9% were discarded in morphological selection and 32.1% oocytes were discarded by failure of first polar body extrusion. The selected oocytes were matured and activated and then after 48 h the cleavage rates were examined. In morphologically selected oocytes, 15.8% oocytes were not cleaved and 52.6% oocytes were normally cleaved and 31.6% oocytes were hyper-cleaved over 8-cell stage. However in the first polar body extruded oocytes, 7.1% oocytes were not cleaved and 73.1% oocytes were normally cleaved and 19.8% oocytes were hyper-cleaved. The morphologically selected embryos that not cleavage-selected were developed in 16.7% up to blastocyst and the morphologically selected and cleavage-selected embryos were developed in 31.7%. The polar body extruded oocytes that were not carried out cleavage selection were developed in 39.0% and the polar body extruded and cleavage-selected embryos were developed 49.0%. The first cleavage timing was examined with 12 h interval after activation. In $0{\sim}12,\;12{\sim}24,\;24{\sim}36,\;and\;36{\sim}48h$ intervals, 4.1%, 68.6%, 19.1%, and 2.3% oocytes were cleaved and 5.9% oocytes were not cleaved until 48 after activation. The cleaved oocytes in each interval were cultured and developed upto blastocyst with 0, 39.1, 9.5, and 0%, respectively. This results suggests that polar body extruded and cleaved at $12{\sim}36h$ embryo has higher developmental potential than the others.

Prediction of Forest Fire Danger Rating over the Korean Peninsula with the Digital Forecast Data and Daily Weather Index (DWI) Model (디지털예보자료와 Daily Weather Index (DWI) 모델을 적용한 한반도의 산불발생위험 예측)

  • Won, Myoung-Soo;Lee, Myung-Bo;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Yoon, Suk-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2012
  • Digital Forecast of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) represents 5 km gridded weather forecast over the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding oceanic regions in Korean territory. Digital Forecast provides 12 weather forecast elements such as three-hour interval temperature, sky condition, wind direction, wind speed, relative humidity, wave height, probability of precipitation, 12 hour accumulated rain and snow, as well as daily minimum and maximum temperatures. These forecast elements are updated every three-hour for the next 48 hours regularly. The objective of this study was to construct Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems on the Korean Peninsula (FFDRS_KORP) based on the daily weather index (DWI) and to improve the accuracy using the digital forecast data. We produced the thematic maps of temperature, humidity, and wind speed over the Korean Peninsula to analyze DWI. To calculate DWI of the Korean Peninsula it was applied forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression analysis, i.e. $[1+{\exp}\{-(2.494+(0.004{\times}T_{max})-(0.008{\times}EF))\}]^{-1}$. The result of verification test among the real-time observatory data, digital forecast and RDAPS data showed that predicting values of the digital forecast advanced more than those of RDAPS data. The results of the comparison with the average forest fire danger rating index (sampled at 233 administrative districts) and those with the digital weather showed higher relative accuracy than those with the RDAPS data. The coefficient of determination of forest fire danger rating was shown as $R^2$=0.854. There was a difference of 0.5 between the national mean fire danger rating index (70) with the application of the real-time observatory data and that with the digital forecast (70.5).

Prediction of Dietary Protein-Energy Balance by Milk Urea Nitrogen and Protein Contents in Dairy Cow (젖소의 우유 중 단백질과 요소태질소 측정에 의한 사료의 에너지와 단백질 균형 상태 예측)

  • Moon, J.S.;Joo, Y.S.;Kang, H.M.;Jang, G.C.;Kim, J.M.;Lee, B.K.;Park, Y.H.;Son, C.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.573-584
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    • 2002
  • Milk urea nitrogen (MUN) and Milk protein (MP) are being used as indicators of the protein-energy balance and for actual farm feeding practices. The purpose of this study was to investigate the MUN and MP concentrations of individual cows and bulk tank milk to evaluate the dietary protein-energy balance from lactating Holstein cows. Mean MUN and MP concentrations in the milk samples obtained from 132,636 cows of 4,856 herd during Jan. 1999 to Dec. 2001 were 16.2 5.2mg/dl and 3.30 0.35%, respectively. The highest values were found during summer and lowest valued during winter in MUN. But, the average contents of MP were the highest during winter and the lowest during summer. In order to evaluate protein-energy balance for feeding, we set the level of recommended MP range of 2.90${\sim}$3.29% in early lactation considering a negative energy balance. The recommended level of MP in mid-lactation and late lactation were set as 3.10${\sim}$3.49%, and 3.30${\sim}$3.69%, respectively. Recommended MUN range of 12${\sim}$18 mg/dl was determined through the whole lactation period. Individual cows milk were analyzed by the 9 types based on this levels of MP and MUN in this study. Among the total cows investigated, 26.8%, 25.8%, and 22.2% have shown the recommended criteria of MP and MUN values, respectively. Also, of total herds surveyed, 11.6% had MUN values lower than 12.0 mg/dl and 32.9% had values higher than 18.0 mg/dl and 44.5% of total herd have not met with the recommended criteria of MP values in bulk tank milk. In case of MP, out of the total herd surveyed, 26.0% had MP values lower than 3.10% and 24.0% had values higher than 3.30% and 50.0% had MP values outside the recommended interval (3.1${\sim}$3.3%). This study has indicates that many dairy farms are under improper feeding management practice of the dietary protein-energy balance.

Corporate Credit Rating based on Bankruptcy Probability Using AdaBoost Algorithm-based Support Vector Machine (AdaBoost 알고리즘기반 SVM을 이용한 부실 확률분포 기반의 기업신용평가)

  • Shin, Taek-Soo;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.25-41
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    • 2011
  • Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are being recognized as competitive tools as compared with other data mining techniques for solving pattern recognition or classification decision problems. Furthermore, many researches, in particular, have proved them more powerful than traditional artificial neural networks (ANNs) (Amendolia et al., 2003; Huang et al., 2004, Huang et al., 2005; Tay and Cao, 2001; Min and Lee, 2005; Shin et al., 2005; Kim, 2003).The classification decision, such as a binary or multi-class decision problem, used by any classifier, i.e. data mining techniques is so cost-sensitive particularly in financial classification problems such as the credit ratings that if the credit ratings are misclassified, a terrible economic loss for investors or financial decision makers may happen. Therefore, it is necessary to convert the outputs of the classifier into wellcalibrated posterior probabilities-based multiclass credit ratings according to the bankruptcy probabilities. However, SVMs basically do not provide such probabilities. So it required to use any method to create the probabilities (Platt, 1999; Drish, 2001). This paper applied AdaBoost algorithm-based support vector machines (SVMs) into a bankruptcy prediction as a binary classification problem for the IT companies in Korea and then performed the multi-class credit ratings of the companies by making a normal distribution shape of posterior bankruptcy probabilities from the loss functions extracted from the SVMs. Our proposed approach also showed that their methods can minimize the misclassification problems by adjusting the credit grade interval ranges on condition that each credit grade for credit loan borrowers has its own credit risk, i.e. bankruptcy probability.

Pinhole Bone Scintigraphic Manifestation of Fibrous Dysplasia (섬유성 이형성증의 바늘구멍 골스캔 소견)

  • Baek, Jee-Hee;Lee, Sung-Yong;Kim, Sung-Hoon;Chung, Yong-An;Kim, Bum-Soo;Song, Ha-Hun;Chung, Soo-Kyo;Kang, Si-Won;Bahk, Yong-Whee;Shinn, Kyung-Sub
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.452-458
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    • 1997
  • To evaluate the pinhole scintigraphic findings and its significance, authors retrospectively compared the pinhole bone scintigrams and corresponding radiograms of 16 lesions in 14 patients with fibrous dysplasia. They were diagnosed pathologically in 10 lesions and radiologically in 6 lesions. The mean age of patients was 41.1 years. The mean interval between two studies was 1.1 days. Locations were ribs 7, pelvic bone 4, clavicle 1, long bones 4(femur 2, tibia 1, humerus 1). The radiographic findings were as follows : the central portions were radiolucent(n=9), ground-glass opacities(n=5) or sclerotic(n=2) and the peripheral appearance were sclerotic rim(n=5), septation(n=7), cortical perforation (n=10) and invisible cortical thinning(n=9). Pinhole scintigraphic findings were as follows; Central portions showed normal 1+ uptake in 6 cases(radiolucent 5, ground-glass opacity 1), slightly increased 2+ upta- ke in 7 cases(radiolucent 4, ground-glass opacity 3), and marked 3+ uptake in 3 cases(ground-glass opacity 1, sclerotic 2). The 15 of 16 lesions showed more intense uptake in the peripheral portion: slightly increased 2+ uptake corresponding to the sclerotic rim(5/5) and unvisible cortical thinning(1/9), and irregular foci of marked 3 + uptake corresponding to septation(7/7), cortical perforation(10/10) and invisible cortical thinning (8/9). One of 16 lesions showed homogeneous 2+ uptake. In conclusion, pinhole scintigram provides information on regional activity of the fibrous dysplasia, which would be helpful in diagnosis, prediction of prognosis and determination of treatment plan.

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Impacts of Argo temperature in East Sea Regional Ocean Model with a 3D-Var Data Assimilation (동해 해양자료동화시스템에 대한 Argo 자료동화 민감도 분석)

  • KIM, SOYEON;JO, YOUNGSOON;KIM, YOUNG-HO;LIM, BYUNGHWAN;CHANG, PIL-HUN
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2015
  • Impacts of Argo temperature assimilation on the analysis fields in the East Sea is investigated by using DAESROM, the East Sea Regional Ocean Model with a 3-dimensional variational assimilation module (Kim et al., 2009). Namely, we produced analysis fields in 2009, in which temperature profiles, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) anomaly were assimilated (Exp. AllDa) and carried out additional experiment by withdrawing Argo temperature data (Exp. NoArgo). When comparing both experimental results using assimilated temperature profiles, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the Exp. AllDa is generally lower than the Exp. NoArgo. In particular, the Argo impacts are large in the subsurface layer, showing the RMSE difference of about $0.5^{\circ}C$. Based on the observations of 14 surface drifters, Argo impacts on the current and temperature fields in the surface layer are investigated. In general, surface currents along the drifter positions are improved in the Exp. AllDa, and large RMSE differences (about 2.0~6.0 cm/s) between both experiments are found in drifters which observed longer period in the southern region where Argo density was high. On the other hand, Argo impacts on the SST fields are negligible, and it is considered that SST assimilation with 1-day interval has dominant effects. Similar to the difference of surface current fields between both experiments, SSH fields also reveal significant difference in the southern East Sea, for example the southwestern Yamato Basin where anticyclonic circulation develops. The comparison of SSH fields implies that SSH assimilation does not correct the SSH difference caused by withdrawing Argo data. Thus Argo assimilation has an important role to reproduce meso-scale circulation features in the East Sea.

Prognostic Significance of Pre-operative FDG-PET in Colorectal Cancer Patients with Hepatic Metastasis (대장직장암 간전이 환자에서 수술전 FDG PET의 예후인자로서의 중요성)

  • Lee, Hyo-Sang;Lee, Won-Woo;Kim, Duck-Woo;Kang, Sung-Bum;Lee, Kyoung-Ho;Lee, Keun-Wook;Kim, Jee-Hyun;Kim, Sang-Eun
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.429-435
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic value of preoperative FDG-PET in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with hepatic metastasis (HM). Materials and Methods: 24 CRC patients (M:F=14:10; age, $63{\pm}10$ yrs) with HM who had undergone preoperative FDG PET were included. Cure-intent surgery was performed in all the patients and HMs were controlled using resection (n=13), radio-frequency ablation (RFA) (n=7), and resection plus RFA (n=4). Potential prognostic markers tested were maxSUV of primary tumor, maxSUV of HM, maxSUV ratio of HM over primary tumor (M/P ratio), histologic grade, CEA level, venous/lymphatic/nerve invasion, T stage, N stage, no. of HM, no. of lymph node metastasis, and treatment modality of HM. Results: 14 CRC patients developed a recurrence with a median follow-up duration of 244 days, whereas 10 patients did not develop recurrence with a median follow-up duration of 504 days. M/P ratios but other potential prognostic markers were significantly higher in the recurrent patients ($0.72{\pm}0.14$) than recurrence-free patients ($0.54{\pm}0.23$) (p=0.038). M/P ratio only was found to predict recurrence by Cox multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 37.7, 95% confidence interval 2.01-706.1, p=0.016). The 11 patients with lower M/P ratio of <0.61 had significantly better disease-free survival rate than the 13 patients with higher M/P ratio (${\geq}0.61$) (p=0.026). Conclusion: maxSUV ratio of HM over primary tumor (M/P ratio) may be useful for prognosis prediction of CRC patients with HM. Higher FDG uptake of HM than that of primary tumor may indicate a more advanced status in stage IV CRC.