• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Control

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Clinicopathologic Characteristics and Prognoses for Multicentric Occurrence and Intrahepatic Metastasis in Synchronous Multinodular Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

  • Li, Shi-Lai;Su, Ming;Peng, Tao;Xiao, Kai-Yin;Shang, Li-Ming;Xu, Bang-Hao;Su, Zhi-Xiong;Ye, Xin-Ping;Peng, Ning;Qin, Quan-Lin;Chen, De-Feng;Chen, Jie;Li, Le-Qun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2013
  • Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide, and the outcomes for patients are still poor. It is important to determine the original type of synchronous multinodular HCC for preoperative assessment and the choice of treatment therapy as well as for the prediction of prognosis after treatment. Aims: To analyze clinicopathologic characteristics and prognoses in patients with multicentric occurrence (MO) and intrahepatic metastasis (IM) of synchronous multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: The study group comprised 42 multinodular HCC patients with a total of 112 nodules. The control group comprised 20 HCC patients with 16 single nodular HCC cases and 4 HCC cases with a portal vein tumor emboli. The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop region was sequenced, and the patients of the study group were categorized as MO or IM based on the sequence variations. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the important clinicopathologic characteristics in the two groups. Results: In the study group, 20 cases were categorized as MO, and 22 as IM, whereas all 20 cases in the control group were characterized as IM. Several factors significantly differed between the IM and MO patients, including hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg), cumulative tumor size, tumor nodule location, cirrhosis, portal vein and/or microvascular tumor embolus and the histological grade of the primary nodule. Multivariate analysis further demonstrated that cirrhosis and portal vein and/or microvascular tumor thrombus were independent factors differentiating between IM and MO patients. The tumor-free survival time of the MO subjects was significantly longer than that of the IM subjects ($25.7{\pm}4.8$ months vs. $8.9{\pm}3.1$ months, p=0.017). Similarly, the overall survival time of the MO subjects was longer ($31.6{\pm}5.3$ months vs. $15.4{\pm}3.4$ months, p=0.024). The multivariate analysis further demonstrated that the original type (p=0.035) and Child-Pugh grade (p<0.001) were independent predictors of tumor-free survival time. Cirrhosis (p=0.011), original type (p=0.034) and Child-Pugh grade (p<0.001) were independent predictors of overall survival time. Conclusions: HBeAg, cumulative tumor size, tumor nodule location, cirrhosis, portal vein and/or microvascular tumor embolus and histological grade of the primary nodule are important factors for differentiating IM and MO. MO HCC patients might have a favorable outcome compared with IM patients.

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

Limitation of Prediction on Intravenous Immunoglobulin Responsiveness in Kawasaki Disease (가와사끼병에서 정맥용 면역글로불린 치료 반응 예측의 한계)

  • Kim, Seong-Koo;Han, Ji-Yoon;Rhim, Jung Woo;Oh, Jin Hee;Han, Ji-Whan;Lee, Kyung Yil;Kang, Jin-Han;Lee, Joon-Sung
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : We aimed to evaluate predictive parameters for non-response to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) before IVIG use using two controls. Methods : We evaluated 229 consecutive KD patients who were treated with 2 g/kg of IVIG at a single center. Those who had persistent fever >24 hours after IVIG infusion made up the 23 IVIG non-responders; the first control included a total 206 defervesced cases and the second control included 46 cases that were matched for age and pre-treatment fever duration to non-responders. Results : Demographic and clinical characteristics were similar in IVIG non-responders and responders at presentation. As for laboratory findings, the neutrophil differential, CRP, AST, ALT, and LDH were higher, and lymphocyte differential, total protein, albumin, platelet count, and total cholesterol were significantly lower in IVIG non-responders compared to responders by univariate analysis in both study designs. However in multivariate analysis, non-responders showed a significantly higher neutrophil differential (cutoff value, >77%, sensitivity 68.4% and specificity 79.5%) and lower cholesterol (<124 mg/dL, sensitivity 79% and specificity 70.5%). Whereas plasma albumin (<3.6 g/dL, sensitivity 73.7% and specificity 60%) was the sole laboratory parameter of non-responders in the second study design. Conclusion : Severity of inflammation in KD was reflected by higher or lower laboratory values at presentation. Because the multivariate analysis for these indices may be influenced by some confounding factors, including the numbers of patients of different ages and fever duration, other assessment modalities are needed for KD patients with the greatest risk of coronary artery lesions.

Effective Coastal Water Quality Management and Marine Environmental Impact Assessment (연안의 효율적 수질관리 방향과 해양환경영향평가)

  • Lee, Dae-In;Eom, Ki-Hyuk;Kim, Gui-Young;Hong, Sok-Jin;Lee, Won-Chan;Jang, Ju-Hyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2008
  • This study examined principles and techniques of efficient water quality management as well as total coastal pollutant loads and the relevant examples in the advanced countries from the viewpoints of water quality improvement and pollution control in coastal areas. The problems and improvements in an estimation of the current total pollutant loads were also pointed out. In addition, discussion was made on the relationship between total pollutant loads and environmental capacity as well as particulars requiring extensive examination on access to and study on water quality model used as prediction tool for marine environment. Furthermore, this study proposed details of and improvement plans for water quality control to be reflected and absorbed into systems and policies related to coastal water quality. In coastal areas, which are subject to total coastal pollutant loads, it is necessary to calculate pollutant loads reduction and allocation, to propose them in detail in statement in relations to new pollution sources for the corresponding projects or plans in environmental impact assessment and prior environmental review system. Also, in relations to regional plans for coastal management, the local government concerned must focus more on environmental management plan to implement data on pollution sources and pollutant loads flown into sea areas under basic jurisdiction, therefore it is required to actively respond to expansion and introduction of total coastal pollutant loads system in the future. Total coastal pollutant loads system must be expanded and executed by considering characteristics of sea area and changes in the environment of land. For pollution sources in land, the competent authorities in charge of coastal environment will need to initiatively administer supervision, monitoring activities and achieve integration and operation of the related laws by preparing legal bases for management system or adjusting the related laws.

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Disease Progression from Chronic Hepatitis C to Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma is Associated with Increasing DNA Promoter Methylation

  • Zekri, Abd El-Rahman Nabawy;Nassar, Auhood Abdel-Monem;El-Rouby, Mahmoud Nour El-Din;Shousha, Hend Ibrahim;Barakat, Ahmed Barakat;El-Desouky, Eman Desouky;Zayed, Naglaa Ali;Ahmed, Ola Sayed;Youssef, Amira Salah El-Din;Kaseb, Ahmed Omar;El-Aziz, Ashraf Omar Abd;Bahnassy, Abeer Ahmed
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.6721-6726
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    • 2013
  • Background: Changes in DNA methylation patterns are believed to be early events in hepatocarcinogenesis. A better understanding of methylation states and how they correlate with disease progression will aid in finding potential strategies for early detection of HCC. The aim of our study was to analyze the methylation frequency of tumor suppressor genes, P14, P15, and P73, and a mismatch repair gene (O6MGMT) in HCV related chronic liver disease and HCC to identify candidate epigenetic biomarkers for HCC prediction. Materials and Methods: 516 Egyptian patients with HCV-related liver disease were recruited from Kasr Alaini multidisciplinary HCC clinic from April 2010 to January 2012. Subjects were divided into 4 different clinically defined groups - HCC group (n=208), liver cirrhosis group (n=108), chronic hepatitis C group (n=100), and control group (n=100) - to analyze the methylation status of the target genes in patient plasma using EpiTect Methyl qPCR Array technology. Methylation was considered to be hypermethylated if >10% and/or intermediately methylated if >60%. Results: In our series, a significant difference in the hypermethylation status of all studied genes was noted within the different stages of chronic liver disease and ultimately HCC. Hypermethylation of the P14 gene was detected in 100/208 (48.1%), 52/108 (48.1%), 16/100 (16%) and 8/100 (8%) among HCC, liver cirrhosis, chronic hepatitis and control groups, respectively, with a statistically significant difference between the studied groups (p-value 0.008). We also detected P15 hypermethylation in 92/208 (44.2%), 36/108 (33.3%), 20/100 (20%) and 4/100 (4%), respectively (p-value 0.006). In addition, hypermethylation of P73 was detected in 136/208 (65.4%), 72/108 (66.7%), 32/100 (32%) and 4/100 (4%) (p-value <0.001). Also, we detected O6MGMT hypermethylation in 84/208 (40.4%), 60/108 (55.3%), 20/100 (20%) and 4/100 (4%), respectively (p value <0.001. Conclusions: The epigenetic changes observed in this study indicate that HCC tumors exhibit specific DNA methylation signatures with potential clinical applications in diagnosis and prognosis. In addition, methylation frequency could be used to monitor whether a patient with chronic hepatitis C is likely to progress to liver cirrhosis or even HCC. We can conclude that methylation processes are not just early events in hepatocarcinogenesis but accumulate with progression to cancer.

Prediction of Potential Risk Posed by a Military Gunnery Range after Flood Control Reservoir Construction (홍수조절지 건설 후 사격장 주변지역의 위해성예측 사례연구)

  • Ryu, Hye-Rim;Han, Joon-Kyoung;Nam, Kyoung-Phile;Bae, Bum-Han
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2007
  • Risk assessment was carried out in order to improve the remediation and management strategy on a contaminated gunnery site, where a flood control reservoir is under construction nearby. Six chemicals, including explosive chemicals and heavy metals, which were suspected to possess risk to humans by leaching events from the site were the target pollutants for the assessment. A site-specific conceptual site model was constructed based on effective, reasonable exposure pathways to avoid any overestimation of the risk. Also, conservative default values were adapted to prevent underestimation of the risk when site-specific values were not available. The risks of the six contaminants were calculated by API's Decision Support System for Exposure and Risk Assessment with several assumptions. In the crater-formed-area(Ac), the non-carcinogenic risks(i.e., HI values) of TNT(Tri-Nitro-Toluene) and Cd were slightly larger than 1, and for RDX(Royal Demolition Explosives), over 50. The total non-carcinogenic risk of the whole gunnery range calculated to a significantly high value of 62.5. Carcinogenicity of Cd was estimated to be about $10^{-3}$, while that of Pb was about $5\;{\times}\;10^{-4}$, which greatly exceeded the generally acceptable carcinogenic risk level of $10^{-4}{\sim}10^{-6}$. The risk assessment results suggest that an immediate remediation practice for both carcinogens and non-carcinogens are required before the reservoir construction. However, for more accurate risk assessment, more specific estimations on condition shifts due to the construction of the reservoir are required, and more over, the effects of the pollutants to the ecosystem is also necessary to be evaluated.

Prediction of infectious diseases using multiple web data and LSTM (다중 웹 데이터와 LSTM을 사용한 전염병 예측)

  • Kim, Yeongha;Kim, Inhwan;Jang, Beakcheol
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2020
  • Infectious diseases have long plagued mankind, and predicting and preventing them has been a big challenge for mankind. For this reasen, various studies have been conducted so far to predict infectious diseases. Most of the early studies relied on epidemiological data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the problem was that the data provided by the CDC was updated only once a week, making it difficult to predict the number of real-time disease outbreaks. However, with the emergence of various Internet media due to the recent development of IT technology, studies have been conducted to predict the occurrence of infectious diseases through web data, and most of the studies we have researched have been using single Web data to predict diseases. However, disease forecasting through a single Web data has the disadvantage of having difficulty collecting large amounts of learning data and making accurate predictions through models for recent outbreaks such as "COVID-19". Thus, we would like to demonstrate through experiments that models that use multiple Web data to predict the occurrence of infectious diseases through LSTM models are more accurate than those that use single Web data and suggest models suitable for predicting infectious diseases. In this experiment, we predicted the occurrence of "Malaria" and "Epidemic-parotitis" using a single web data model and the model we propose. A total of 104 weeks of NEWS, SNS, and search query data were collected, of which 75 weeks were used as learning data and 29 weeks were used as verification data. In the experiment we predicted verification data using our proposed model and single web data, Pearson correlation coefficient for the predicted results of our proposed model showed the highest similarity at 0.94, 0.86, and RMSE was also the lowest at 0.19, 0.07.

Application of Predictive Microbiology for Shelf-life Estimation of Tteokgalbi Containing Dietary Fiber from Rice Bran (예측미생물학을 활용한 미강 식이섬유 함유 떡갈비의 유통기한 설정)

  • Heo, Chan;Kim, Hyoun-Wook;Choi, Yun-Sang;Kim, Cheon-Jei;Paik, Hyun-Dong
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.232-239
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this study is to estimate the shelf-life of Tteokgalbi containing dietary fiber extracted from rice bran by using the predictive microbiology. This Tteokgalbi was made with 0%, 1%, 2%, and 3% dietary fiber. The number of total viable cells, anaerobic, psychrotrophic, and heat-stable bacteria and coliforms was calculated during 15 days of storage under $4{\pm}1^{\circ}C$ and the obtained data was applied to Baranyi function. The evaluation of fitness between predicted and observed data showed that these were matched in a satisfactory way. Heat-stable bacteria was detected lower than <1 log CFU/g and coliforms were not detected during the storage. The changes of total viable cells and psychrotrophic bacteria in Tteokgalbi were increased gradually, but dramatically increased after 3 days of storage. The models of total viable cells and anaerobic bacteria showed very similar growth trends and values of growth parameters each other. The estimated shelf-life of each Tteokgalbi was calculated from the predictive model of total viable cells and the estimated shelf-life was 1.7, 2.3, 2.3, and 2.4 days, respectively. The results suggested that the prediction of bacteria growth could be used to evaluate the microbiological safety and determine the shelf-life of Tteokgalbi as ready-to-eat food in the local market.

Analysis of Growth Characteristics and Yield Pattern of 'Cupra' and 'Fiesta' Paprika for Yield Prediction (수량예측을 위한 'Cupra', 'Fiesta' 파프리카의 생육특성 및 수확량 패턴 분석)

  • Joung, Kyong Hee;Jin, Hy Jeong;An, Jae Uk;Yoon, Hae Suk;Oh, Sang Suk;Lim, Chae Shin;Um, Yeong Cheol;Kim, Hee Dae;Hong, Kwang Pyo;Park, Seong Min
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.349-355
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    • 2018
  • This study was aimed at predicting the yield of paprika (Capsicum annuum L.) through analyzing the growth characteristics, yield pattern and greenhouse environment. In the greenhouse of the Gyeongnam area (667 m above sea level), the red paprika 'Cupra' and the yellow paprika 'Fiesta' were grown from July 5, 2016 to July 15, 2017. The planting density was $3.66plants/m^2$ and attracted 2 stems. During the cultivation period, the average external radiation of the glasshouse was $14.36MJ/m^2/day$ and the internal average temperature was controlled as $20.1^{\circ}C$. After 42 weeks of planting, the growth rate of 'Cupra' was 7.3 cm/week and that of 'Fiesta' was 6.9 cm/week. The first fruit setting of 'Cupra' appeared at 1.0th node and 'Fiesta' at 2.7th node. The first harvest of 'Fiesta' was 11 weeks after planting and 'Fiesta' was 14 weeks. Comparing the yield per 10 a until the end of the cultivation in July, 'Fiesta' was 19,307 kg, which was 2.4% higher than that of 'Cupra'. And the fruit weight ratio of over 200 g of 'Cupra' was 27.7% which was 7.7% higher than that of 'Fiesta'. The average required days to harvest after fruit setting of 'Cupra' was 72.6 days and 'Fiesta' was 63.8 days. According to the relationship between the average required days to harvest and the cumulative radiation (during from fruit setting to harvest), the more radiation increases the less required days to harvest increases after February. In terms of yield, 'Cupra' increased in yield as the cumulative radiation increased, while 'Fiesta' showed an irregular pattern. Cumulative radiation from fruit setting to harvest was negatively correlated with required days to harvest after February in both cultivars. But in relation to yield, there were difference between 'Cupra' and 'Fiesta'.

Analysis of Environmental Design Data for Growing Pleurotus ervngii (큰 느타리버섯 재배사의 환경설계용 자료 분석)

  • Yoon, Yong-Cheol;Suh, Won-Myung;Lee, In-Bok
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2005
  • This study was carried out to file up using effect and requirement of energy for environmental design data of Pleurotus eryngii growing houses. Heating and cooling Degree-Hour (D-H) were calculated and compared for. some Pleurotus eryngii growing houses of sandwich-panel (permanent) o. arch-roofed(simple) type structures modified and suggested through field survey and analysis. Also thermal resistance (R-value) was calculated for the heat insulating and covering materials of the permanent and simple-type, which were made of polyurethane or polystyrene panel and $7\~8$ layers heat conservation cover wall. The variations of heating and cooling D-H simulated for Jinju area was nearly linearly proportional to the setting inside temperatures. The variations of cooling D-H was much more sensitive than those of heating D-H. Therefore, it was expected that the variations of required energy in accordance with setting temperature or actual temperature maintained inside of the cultivation house could be estimated and also the estimated results of heating and cooling D-H could be effectively used far the verification of environmental simulation as well as for the calculation of required energy amounts. When the cultivation floor areas are all equal, panel type houses to be constructed by various combinations of materials were found to by far more effective than simple type pipe house in the aspect of energy conservation maintenance except some additional cost invested initially. And also the energy effectiveness of multi-span house compared to single span together with the prediction of energy requirement depending on the level insulated for the wall and roof area could be estimated. Additionally, structural as well as environmental optimizations are expected to be possible by calculating periodical and/or seasonal energy requirements for those various combinations of insulation level and different climate conditions, etc.