• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Analysis

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Clinical Significance of the Bacille Calmette-Guérin Site Reaction in Kawasaki Disease Patients Aged Less than 18 Months

  • Park, Sung Hyeon;Yu, Jeong Jin;You, Jihye;Kim, Mi Jin;Shin, Eun Jung;Jun, Hyun Ok;Baek, Jae Suk;Kim, Young-Hwue;Ko, Jae-Kon
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.148-155
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of Bacille Calmette-$Gu{\acute{e}}rin$ (BCG) site reaction in terms of diagnosis and outcome prediction in young children with Kawasaki disease (KD). Methods: The incidence of BCG site reaction in the respective age ranges was investigated in 1,058 patients who were admitted at Asan Medical Center between January 2006 and February 2017. The 416 patients under 18 months of age were enrolled as subjects for the analysis of the association between BCG site reaction and other laboratory and clinical findings. The analysis was performed separately in complete and incomplete KD groups. Results: The incidence rate of BCG site reaction was peaked at 6-12 months (83%) and decreased with increasing age after 12 months in 1,058 patients (P<0.001). The incidence rate was above 70% in KD aged less than 18 months and more frequent than those of cervical lymphadenopathy. The logistic regression analyses showed that the principal clinical findings including conjunctivitis (P=0.781), red lips/oral mucosa (P=0.963), rash (P=0.510), cervical lymphadenopathy (P=0.363), changes in extremities (P=0.283) and the coronary artery aneurysm (P=0.776) were not associated with the BCG site reaction. Conclusions: The BCG site reaction could be a useful diagnostic tool independent to principal clinical findings in KD developing in children aged <18 months, who underwent BCG vaccination. Outcome of KD patients was not different between groups with or without the BCG site reaction in both complete KD and incomplete KD.

Label Embedding for Improving Classification Accuracy UsingAutoEncoderwithSkip-Connections (다중 레이블 분류의 정확도 향상을 위한 스킵 연결 오토인코더 기반 레이블 임베딩 방법론)

  • Kim, Museong;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.175-197
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    • 2021
  • Recently, with the development of deep learning technology, research on unstructured data analysis is being actively conducted, and it is showing remarkable results in various fields such as classification, summary, and generation. Among various text analysis fields, text classification is the most widely used technology in academia and industry. Text classification includes binary class classification with one label among two classes, multi-class classification with one label among several classes, and multi-label classification with multiple labels among several classes. In particular, multi-label classification requires a different training method from binary class classification and multi-class classification because of the characteristic of having multiple labels. In addition, since the number of labels to be predicted increases as the number of labels and classes increases, there is a limitation in that performance improvement is difficult due to an increase in prediction difficulty. To overcome these limitations, (i) compressing the initially given high-dimensional label space into a low-dimensional latent label space, (ii) after performing training to predict the compressed label, (iii) restoring the predicted label to the high-dimensional original label space, research on label embedding is being actively conducted. Typical label embedding techniques include Principal Label Space Transformation (PLST), Multi-Label Classification via Boolean Matrix Decomposition (MLC-BMaD), and Bayesian Multi-Label Compressed Sensing (BML-CS). However, since these techniques consider only the linear relationship between labels or compress the labels by random transformation, it is difficult to understand the non-linear relationship between labels, so there is a limitation in that it is not possible to create a latent label space sufficiently containing the information of the original label. Recently, there have been increasing attempts to improve performance by applying deep learning technology to label embedding. Label embedding using an autoencoder, a deep learning model that is effective for data compression and restoration, is representative. However, the traditional autoencoder-based label embedding has a limitation in that a large amount of information loss occurs when compressing a high-dimensional label space having a myriad of classes into a low-dimensional latent label space. This can be found in the gradient loss problem that occurs in the backpropagation process of learning. To solve this problem, skip connection was devised, and by adding the input of the layer to the output to prevent gradient loss during backpropagation, efficient learning is possible even when the layer is deep. Skip connection is mainly used for image feature extraction in convolutional neural networks, but studies using skip connection in autoencoder or label embedding process are still lacking. Therefore, in this study, we propose an autoencoder-based label embedding methodology in which skip connections are added to each of the encoder and decoder to form a low-dimensional latent label space that reflects the information of the high-dimensional label space well. In addition, the proposed methodology was applied to actual paper keywords to derive the high-dimensional keyword label space and the low-dimensional latent label space. Using this, we conducted an experiment to predict the compressed keyword vector existing in the latent label space from the paper abstract and to evaluate the multi-label classification by restoring the predicted keyword vector back to the original label space. As a result, the accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score used as performance indicators showed far superior performance in multi-label classification based on the proposed methodology compared to traditional multi-label classification methods. This can be seen that the low-dimensional latent label space derived through the proposed methodology well reflected the information of the high-dimensional label space, which ultimately led to the improvement of the performance of the multi-label classification itself. In addition, the utility of the proposed methodology was identified by comparing the performance of the proposed methodology according to the domain characteristics and the number of dimensions of the latent label space.

Comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis of ensemble-based hydrologic data assimilation using airGRdatassim (airGRdatassim을 이용한 앙상블 기반 수문자료동화 기법의 비교 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Garim;Lee, Songhee;Kim, Bomi;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.761-774
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    • 2022
  • Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

A Study of Life Safety Index Model based on AHP and Utilization of Service (AHP 기반의 생활안전지수 모델 및 서비스 활용방안 연구)

  • Oh, Hye-Su;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Jeong, Jong-Woon;Jang, Jae-Min;Yang, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.864-881
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims is to provide a total care solution preventing disaster based on Big Data and AI technology and to service safety considered by individual situations and various risk characteristics. The purpose is to suggest a method that customized comprehensive index services to prevent and respond to safety accidents for calculating the living safety index that quantitatively represent individual safety levels in relation to daily life safety. Method: In this study, we use method of mixing AHP(Analysis Hierarchy Process) and Likert Scale that extracted from consensus formation model of the expert group. We organize evaluation items that can evaluate life safety prevention services into risk indicators, vulnerability indicators, and prevention indicators. And We made up AHP hierarchical structure according to the AHP decision methodology and proposed a method to calculate relative weights between evaluation criteria through pairwise comparison of each level item. In addition, in consideration of the expansion of life safety prevention services in the future, the Likert scale is used instead of the AHP pair comparison and the weights between individual services are calculated. Result: We obtain result that is weights for life safety prevention services and reflected them in the individual risk index calculated through the artificial intelligence prediction model of life safety prevention services, so the comprehensive index was calculated. Conclusion: In order to apply the implemented model, a test environment consisting of a life safety prevention service app and platform was built, and the efficacy of the function was evaluated based on the user scenario. Through this, the life safety index presented in this study was confirmed to support the golden time for diagnosis, response and prevention of safety risks by comprehensively indication the user's current safety level.

Utilization of Smart Farms in Open-field Agriculture Based on Digital Twin (디지털 트윈 기반 노지스마트팜 활용방안)

  • Kim, Sukgu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2023.04a
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    • pp.7-7
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    • 2023
  • Currently, the main technologies of various fourth industries are big data, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, mixed reality (MR), and drones. In particular, "digital twin," which has recently become a global technological trend, is a concept of a virtual model that is expressed equally in physical objects and computers. By creating and simulating a Digital twin of software-virtualized assets instead of real physical assets, accurate information about the characteristics of real farming (current state, agricultural productivity, agricultural work scenarios, etc.) can be obtained. This study aims to streamline agricultural work through automatic water management, remote growth forecasting, drone control, and pest forecasting through the operation of an integrated control system by constructing digital twin data on the main production area of the nojinot industry and designing and building a smart farm complex. In addition, it aims to distribute digital environmental control agriculture in Korea that can reduce labor and improve crop productivity by minimizing environmental load through the use of appropriate amounts of fertilizers and pesticides through big data analysis. These open-field agricultural technologies can reduce labor through digital farming and cultivation management, optimize water use and prevent soil pollution in preparation for climate change, and quantitative growth management of open-field crops by securing digital data for the national cultivation environment. It is also a way to directly implement carbon-neutral RED++ activities by improving agricultural productivity. The analysis and prediction of growth status through the acquisition of the acquired high-precision and high-definition image-based crop growth data are very effective in digital farming work management. The Southern Crop Department of the National Institute of Food Science conducted research and development on various types of open-field agricultural smart farms such as underground point and underground drainage. In particular, from this year, commercialization is underway in earnest through the establishment of smart farm facilities and technology distribution for agricultural technology complexes across the country. In this study, we would like to describe the case of establishing the agricultural field that combines digital twin technology and open-field agricultural smart farm technology and future utilization plans.

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Prediction of Necrotizing Pancreatitis on Early CT Based on the Revised Atlanta Classification (개정된 아틀란타 분류법에 근거한 초기 CT에서의 괴사성 췌장염의 예측)

  • Yeon Seon Song;Hee Sun Park;Mi Hye Yu;Young Jun Kim;Sung Il Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.81 no.6
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    • pp.1436-1447
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    • 2020
  • Purpose To investigate the clinical and CT features at admission to predict the progression to necrotizing pancreatitis (NP) in patients initially diagnosed with interstitial edematous pancreatitis (IEP). Materials and Methods Patients with IEP who underwent contrast-enhanced CT at admission and follow-up CT (< 14 days) were included (n = 178). Two radiologists performed a consensus review of follow-up CT scans and diagnosed the type of acute pancreatitis as IEP or NP. Laboratory findings at admission were recorded. Clinical, CT, and laboratory findings were compared between the IEP-IEP group and IEP-NP group using the chi-square test and the t-test. Multivariate analysis was also performed. Results There were 112 and 66 patients in the IEP-IEP and the IEP-NP groups, respectively. The proportion of patients with alcohol etiology was significantly larger in the IEP-NP group. Among the CT findings, the presence of peripancreatic fluid and heterogeneous parenchymal enhancement were more frequently observed in the IEP-NP group. Among the laboratory variables, serum C-reactive protein levels and white blood cell counts were significantly higher in the IEP-NP group. Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of peripancreatic fluid and heterogeneous parenchymal enhancement were significant findings distinguishing the two groups. Conclusion CT findings, such as the presence of peripancreatic fluid and heterogeneous pancreatic parenchymal enhancement, may be helpful in predicting the progression to NP in patients initially diagnosed with IEP.

Radiomics Analysis of Gray-Scale Ultrasonographic Images of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma > 1 cm: Potential Biomarker for the Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis (Radiomics를 이용한 1 cm 이상의 갑상선 유두암의 초음파 영상 분석: 림프절 전이 예측을 위한 잠재적인 바이오마커)

  • Hyun Jung Chung;Kyunghwa Han;Eunjung Lee;Jung Hyun Yoon;Vivian Youngjean Park;Minah Lee;Eun Cho;Jin Young Kwak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.84 no.1
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2023
  • Purpose This study aimed to investigate radiomics analysis of ultrasonographic images to develop a potential biomarker for predicting lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. Materials and Methods This study included 431 PTC patients from August 2013 to May 2014 and classified them into the training and validation sets. A total of 730 radiomics features, including texture matrices of gray-level co-occurrence matrix and gray-level run-length matrix and single-level discrete two-dimensional wavelet transform and other functions, were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used for selecting the most predictive features in the training data set. Results Lymph node metastasis was associated with the radiomics score (p < 0.001). It was also associated with other clinical variables such as young age (p = 0.007) and large tumor size (p = 0.007). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.687 (95% confidence interval: 0.616-0.759) for the training set and 0.650 (95% confidence interval: 0.575-0.726) for the validation set. Conclusion This study showed the potential of ultrasonography-based radiomics to predict cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC; thus, ultrasonography-based radiomics can act as a biomarker for PTC.

A Statistical model to Predict soil Temperature by Combining the Yearly Oscillation Fourier Expansion and Meteorological Factors (연주기(年週期) Fourier 함수(函數)와 기상요소(氣象要素)에 의(依)한 지온예측(地溫豫測) 통계(統計) 모형(模型))

  • Jung, Yeong-Sang;Lee, Byun-Woo;Kim, Byung-Chang;Lee, Yang-Soo;Um, Ki-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 1990
  • A statistical model to predict soil temperature from the ambient meteorological factors including mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures, precipitation, wind speed and snow depth combined with Fourier time series expansion was developed with the data measured at the Suwon Meteorolical Service from 1979 to 1988. The stepwise elimination technique was used for statistical analysis. For the yearly oscillation model for soil temperature with 8 terms of Fourier expansion, the mean square error was decreased with soil depth showing 2.30 for the surface temperature, and 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500-cm soil temperatures. The $r^2$ ranged from 0.913 to 0.988. The number of lag days of air temperature by remainder analysis was 0 day for the soil surface temperature, -1 day for 5 to 30-cm soil temperature, and -2 days for 50-cm soil temperature. The number of lag days for precipitaion, snow depth and wind speed was -1 day for the 0 to 10-cm soil temperatures, and -2 to -3 days for the 30 to 50-cm soil teperatures. For the statistical soil temperature prediction model combined with the yearly oscillation terms and meteorological factors as remainder terms considering the lag days obtained above, the mean square error was 1.64 for the soil surfac temperature, and ranged 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500cm soil temperatures. The model test with 1978 data independent to model development resulted in good agreement with $r^2$ ranged 0.976 to 0.996. The magnitudes of coeffcicients implied that the soil depth where daily meteorological variables night affect soil temperature was 30 to 50 cm. In the models, solar radiation was not included as a independent variable ; however, in a seperated analysis on relationship between the difference(${\Delta}Tmxs$) of the maximum soil temperature and the maximum air temperature and solar radiation(Rs ; $J\;m^{-2}$) under a corn canopy showed linear relationship as $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.902+1.924{\times}10^{-3}$$ Rs for leaf area index lower than 2 $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.274+8.881{\times}10^{-4}$$ Rs for leaf area index higher than 2.

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Optimization and Development of Prediction Model on the Removal Condition of Livestock Wastewater using a Response Surface Method in the Photo-Fenton Oxidation Process (Photo-Fenton 산화공정에서 반응표면분석법을 이용한 축산폐수의 COD 처리조건 최적화 및 예측식 수립)

  • Cho, Il-Hyoung;Chang, Soon-Woong;Lee, Si-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.642-652
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    • 2008
  • The aim of our research was to apply experimental design methodology in the optimization condition of Photo-Fenton oxidation of the residual livestock wastewater after the coagulation process. The reactions of Photo-Fenton oxidation were mathematically described as a function of parameters amount of Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$ and pH($x_3$) being modeled by the use of the Box-Behnken method, which was used for fitting 2nd order response surface models and was alternative to central composite designs. The application of RSM using the Box-Behnken method yielded the following regression equation, which is an empirical relationship between the removal(%) of livestock wastewater and test variables in coded unit: Y = 79.3 + 15.61x$_1$ - 7.31x$_2$ - 4.26x$_3$ - 18x$_1{^2}$ - 10x$_2{^2}$ - 11.9x$_3{^2}$ + 2.49x$_1$x$_2$ - 4.4x$_2$x$_3$ - 1.65x$_1$x$_3$. The model predicted also agreed with the experimentally observed result(R$^2$ = 0.96) The results show that the response of treatment removal(%) in Photo-Fenton oxidation of livestock wastewater were significantly affected by the synergistic effect of linear terms(Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$, pH(x$_3$)), whereas Fe(II) $\times$ Fe(II)(x$_1{^2}$), $H_2O_2$ $\times$ $H_2O_2$(x$_2{^2}$) and pH $\times$ pH(x$_3{^2}$) on the quadratic terms were significantly affected by the antagonistic effect. $H_2O_2$ $\times$ pH(x$_2$x$_3$) had also a antagonistic effect in the cross-product term. The estimated ridge of the expected maximum response and optimal conditions for Y using canonical analysis were 84 $\pm$ 0.95% and (Fe(II)(X$_1$) = 0.0146 mM, $H_2O_2$(X$_2$) = 0.0867 mM and pH(X$_3$) = 4.704, respectively. The optimal ratio of Fe/H$_2O_2$ was also 0.17 at the pH 4.7.

A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.