• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Analysis

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Warm Season Hydro-Meteorological Variability in South Korea Due to SSTA Pattern Changes in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Region (열대 태평양 SSTA 패턴 변화에 따른 우리나라 여름철 수문 변동 분석)

  • Yoon, Sun-kwon;Kim, Jong-Suk;Lee, Tae-Sam;Moon, Young-IL
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-63
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional hydrologic variability during warm season (June-September) in South Korea due to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation) pattern changes over the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). We performed composite analysis (CA) and statistical significance test by Student's t-test using observed hydrologic data (such as, precipitation and streamflow) in the 113 sub-watershed areas over the 5-Major River basin, in South Korea. As a result of this study, during the warm-pool (WP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year shows a significant increasing tendency than normal years. Particularly, during the cold-tongue (CT) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ decaying years clearly decreasing tendency compared to the normal years was appeared. In addition, the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ years tended to show a slightly increasing tendency and maintain the average year state. In addition, from the result of scatter plot of the percentage anomaly of hydrologic variables during warm season, it is possible to identify the linear increasing tendency. Also the center of the scatter plot shows during the WP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year (+17.93%, +26.99%), the CT El $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (-8.20%, -15.73%), and the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (+8.89%, +15.85%), respectively. This result shows a methodology of the tele-connection based long-range water resources prediction for reducing climate forecasting uncertainty, when occurs the abnormal SSTA (such as, El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$) phenomenon in the TPO region. Furthermore, it can be a useful data for water managers and end-users to support long-range water-related policy making.

A Study on the Hydrocarbon Dew Point Prediction by the Compositions of the Fuel Gas Mixtures (연료용 혼합가스 조성에 따른 탄화수소 이슬점 예측)

  • Kim, Young-Gu;Choi, Seul-Gi;Ahn, Jung-Jin;Lee, Chang-Eon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.44-48
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    • 2015
  • The equations of hydrocarbon dew points(DT) of the fuel gas mixtures have been derived using the multiple regression analysis. In QSDR(Quantitative Structure Dew-point Relationship), the principal descriptors are CN(average carbon number) and BI(the ratio of the branched isomers). QSDRs studied by changing the pressures of the fuel gas mixtures in the range of 100 kPa ~ 500 kPa are as follows; $$DT(^{\circ}C)=-683.1+1224.98CN-898.01CN^2+308.58CN^3-49.56CN^4+3.02CN^5-12.42BI$$ (at 100 kPa, $$R_{adj}{^2}=0.99$$) (1) $$DT(^{\circ}C)=-745.2+1351.66CN-978.1CN^2+332.7CN^3-52.96CN^4+3.20CN^5-12.84BI$$ (at 200 kPa, $$R_{adj}{^2}=0.99$$) (2) $$DT(^{\circ}C)=-795.4+1457.1CN-1051.1CN^2+357.53CN^3-57.07CN^4+3.46CN^5-13.10BI$$ (at 300 kPa, $$R_{adj}{^2}=0.99$$) (3) $$DT(^{\circ}C)=-868.1+1608.4CN-1156.0CN^2+393.38CN^3-63.06CN^4+3.85CN^5-13.39BI$$ (at 500 kPa, $$R_{adj}{^2}=0.99$$) (4) As the average carbon numbers in the mixed fuel being reduced or the ratio of the branched isomers having a boiling point lower increase, The hydrocarbon dew point becomes lower, The differences between the hydrocarbon-dew points determined by the multiple regression and those calculated by the commercial program, VMGSim are negligible.

Prediction of Nitrate Contamination of Groundwater in the Northern Nonsan area Using Multiple Regression Analysis (다중 회귀 분석을 이용한 논산 북부 지역 지하수의 질산성 질소 오염 예측)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Koh, Dong-Chan;Ko, Kyung-Seok;Yeo, In-Wook
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.57-73
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    • 2008
  • Nitrate concentrations were measured up to 49 mg/L (as $NO_3$-N) and 22% of the samples exceeded drinking water standard in shallow and bedrock groundwater of the northern Nonsan area. Nitrate concentrations showed a significant difference among land use groups. To predict nitrate concentration in groundwater, multiple regression analysis was carried out using hydrogeologic parameters of soil media, topography and land use which were categorized as several groups, well depth and altitude, and field parameters of temperature, pH, DO and EC. Hydrogeologic parameters were quantified as area proportions of each category within circular buffers centering at wells. Regression was performed to all the combination of variables and the most relevant model was selected based on adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. $R^2$). Regression using hydrogelogic parameters with varying buffer radii show highest Adj. $R^2$ at 50m and 300m for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively. Shallow groundwater has higher Adj. $R^2$ than bedrock groundwater indicating higher susceptibility to hydrogeologic properties of surface environment near the well. Land use and soil media was major explanatory variables for shallow and bedrock groundwater, respectively and residential area was a major variable in both shallow and bedrock groundwater. Regression involving hydrogeologic parameters and field parameters showed that EC, paddy and pH were major variables in shallow groundwater whereas DO, EC and natural area were in bedrock groundwater. Field parameters have much higher explanatory power over the hydrogeologic parameters suggesting field parameters which are routinely measured can provide important information on each well in assessment of nitrate contamination. The most relevant buffer radii can be applied to estimation of travel time of contaminants in surface environment to wells.

Comparative analysis of auto-calibration methods using QUAL2Kw and assessment on the water quality management alternatives for Sum River (QUAL2Kw 모형을 이용한 자동보정 방법 비교분석과 섬강의 수질관리 대안 평가)

  • Cho, Jae Heon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.345-356
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    • 2016
  • In this study, auto-calibration method for water quality model was compared and analyzed using QUAL2Kw, which can estimate the optimum parameters through the integration of genetic algorithm and QUAL2K. The QUAL2Kw was applied to the Sum River which is greatly affected by the pollution loads of Wonju city. Two auto-calibration methods were examined: single parameter application for the whole river reach and separate parameter application for each reach of multiple reaches. The analysis about CV(RMSE) and fitness of the GA show that the separate parameter auto-calibration method is better than the single parameter method in the degree of precision. Thus the separate parameter auto-calibration method is applied to the water quality modelling of this study. The calibrated QUAL2Kw was used for the three scenarios for the water quality management of the Sum River, and the water quality impact on the river was analyzed. In scenario 1, which improve the effluent water quality of Wonju WWTP, BOD and TP concentrations of the Sum River 4-1 station which is representative one of Mid-Watershed, are decreased 17.7% and 29.1%, respectively. And immediately after joining the Wonjucheon, BOD and TP concentrations are decreased 50.4% and 40.5%, respectively. In scenario 2, Wonju water supply intake is closed and multi-regional water supply, which come from other watershed except the Sum River, is provided. The Sum River water quality in scenario 2 is slightly improved as the flow of the river is increased. Immediately after joining the Wonjucheon, BOD and TP concentrations are decreased 0.18mg/L and 0.0063mg/L, respectively. In scenario 3, the water quality management alternatives of scenario 1 and 2 are planned simultaneously, the Sum River water quality is slightly more improved than scenario 1. Water quality prediction of the three scenarios indicates that effluent water quality improvement of Wonju WWTP is the most efficient alternative in water quality management of the Sum River. Particularly the Sum River water quality immediately after joining the Wonjucheon is greatly improved. When Wonju water supply intake is closed and multi-regional water supply is provided, the Sum River water quality is slightly improved.

Clinicopathologic Characteristics and Prognoses for Multicentric Occurrence and Intrahepatic Metastasis in Synchronous Multinodular Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

  • Li, Shi-Lai;Su, Ming;Peng, Tao;Xiao, Kai-Yin;Shang, Li-Ming;Xu, Bang-Hao;Su, Zhi-Xiong;Ye, Xin-Ping;Peng, Ning;Qin, Quan-Lin;Chen, De-Feng;Chen, Jie;Li, Le-Qun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2013
  • Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common cancers worldwide, and the outcomes for patients are still poor. It is important to determine the original type of synchronous multinodular HCC for preoperative assessment and the choice of treatment therapy as well as for the prediction of prognosis after treatment. Aims: To analyze clinicopathologic characteristics and prognoses in patients with multicentric occurrence (MO) and intrahepatic metastasis (IM) of synchronous multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: The study group comprised 42 multinodular HCC patients with a total of 112 nodules. The control group comprised 20 HCC patients with 16 single nodular HCC cases and 4 HCC cases with a portal vein tumor emboli. The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D-loop region was sequenced, and the patients of the study group were categorized as MO or IM based on the sequence variations. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the important clinicopathologic characteristics in the two groups. Results: In the study group, 20 cases were categorized as MO, and 22 as IM, whereas all 20 cases in the control group were characterized as IM. Several factors significantly differed between the IM and MO patients, including hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg), cumulative tumor size, tumor nodule location, cirrhosis, portal vein and/or microvascular tumor embolus and the histological grade of the primary nodule. Multivariate analysis further demonstrated that cirrhosis and portal vein and/or microvascular tumor thrombus were independent factors differentiating between IM and MO patients. The tumor-free survival time of the MO subjects was significantly longer than that of the IM subjects ($25.7{\pm}4.8$ months vs. $8.9{\pm}3.1$ months, p=0.017). Similarly, the overall survival time of the MO subjects was longer ($31.6{\pm}5.3$ months vs. $15.4{\pm}3.4$ months, p=0.024). The multivariate analysis further demonstrated that the original type (p=0.035) and Child-Pugh grade (p<0.001) were independent predictors of tumor-free survival time. Cirrhosis (p=0.011), original type (p=0.034) and Child-Pugh grade (p<0.001) were independent predictors of overall survival time. Conclusions: HBeAg, cumulative tumor size, tumor nodule location, cirrhosis, portal vein and/or microvascular tumor embolus and histological grade of the primary nodule are important factors for differentiating IM and MO. MO HCC patients might have a favorable outcome compared with IM patients.

A Study on Prediction of Asian Dusts Using the WRF-Chem Model in 2010 in the Korean Peninsula (WRF-Chem 모델을 이용한 2010년 한반도의 황사 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Ok Jin;Moon, Yun Seob
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.90-108
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    • 2015
  • The WRF-Chem model was applied to simulate the Asian dust event affecting the Korean Peninsula from 11 to 13 November 2010. GOCART dust emission schemes, RADM2 chemical mechanism, and MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme were adopted within the WRF-Chem model to predict dust aerosol concentrations. The results in the model simulations were identified by comparing with the weather maps, satellite images, monitoring data of $PM_{10}$ concentration, and LIDAR images. The model results showed a good agreement with the long-range transport from the dust source area such as Northeastern China and Mongolia to the Korean Peninsula. Comparison of the time series of $PM_{10}$ concentration measured at Backnungdo showed that the correlation coefficient was 0.736, and the root mean square error was $192.73{\mu}g/m^3$. The spatial distribution of $PM_{10}$ concentration using the WRF-Chem model was similar to that of the $PM_{2.5}$ which were about a half of $PM_{10}$. Also, they were much alike in those of the UM-ADAM model simulated by the Korean Meteorological Administration. Meanwhile, the spatial distributions of $PM_{10}$ concentrations during the Asian dust events had relevance to those of both the wind speed of u component ($ms^{-1}$) and the PBL height (m). We performed a regressive analysis between $PM_{10}$ concentrations and two meteorological variables (u component and PBL) in the strong dust event in autumn (CASE 1, on 11 to 23 March 2010) and the weak dust event in spring (CASE 2, on 19 to 20 March 2011), respectively.

Purification and Biological Characterization of Wild-type and Mutants of a Levan Fructotransferase from Microbacterium sp. AL-210 (Microbacterium sp. A-210이 생성하는 Levan fructotransferase의 정제 및 생물학적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Eun-Young;Jeong, Mi-Suk;Cha, Jae-Ho;Jang, Se-Bok
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.1218-1225
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    • 2009
  • Difractose anhydrides (DFAs) is studied as a sweetener for diabetics because of its structural property. DFAs have four types: DFA I, III, IV (degradation of levan) and V (degradation of inulin). Especially, DFA IV has been shown to enhance the absorption of calcium in experiments using rats. Levan fructotransferase is an enzyme for producing di-d-fructose-2,6':6,2-dianhydride (DFA IV). To identify structural characterization, we purified wild-type and mutants (D63A, D195N and N85S) of levan fructotransferase (LFTase) from Microbacterium sp. AL-210. These proteins were purified to apparent homogeneity by Ni-NTA affinity column, Q-sepharose ion exchange and gel filtration chromatography and detected by SDS-PAGE. They were also analyzed by circular dichroism (CD) measurements, JNET secondary structure prediction, activity measurements at various temperatures, and pH analysis. The optimum pH for the enzyme-catalyzed reaction was pH 7.5 and optimum temperature was observed at $55^{\circ}C$. Along with wild-type LFTase, mutants were analyzed by CD measurement, fluorescence analysis and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). N85S showed less $\alpha$-helix and more $\beta$ strand than others. Also, N85S showed almost the same curve as wild-type in their steady-state fluorescence spectra, whereas mutant D63A and D195N showed higher intensity than wild-type. The amino acid sequence of wild-type LFTase was compared to the sequences of exo-inulinase from Aspergillus awamori, a plant fructan 1-exohydrolase from Cichorium intybus, and Thermotogo maritime (Tm) invertase and showed a high identity with Exo-inulinase from Aspergillus awamori.

Impacts of Argo temperature in East Sea Regional Ocean Model with a 3D-Var Data Assimilation (동해 해양자료동화시스템에 대한 Argo 자료동화 민감도 분석)

  • KIM, SOYEON;JO, YOUNGSOON;KIM, YOUNG-HO;LIM, BYUNGHWAN;CHANG, PIL-HUN
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2015
  • Impacts of Argo temperature assimilation on the analysis fields in the East Sea is investigated by using DAESROM, the East Sea Regional Ocean Model with a 3-dimensional variational assimilation module (Kim et al., 2009). Namely, we produced analysis fields in 2009, in which temperature profiles, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) anomaly were assimilated (Exp. AllDa) and carried out additional experiment by withdrawing Argo temperature data (Exp. NoArgo). When comparing both experimental results using assimilated temperature profiles, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the Exp. AllDa is generally lower than the Exp. NoArgo. In particular, the Argo impacts are large in the subsurface layer, showing the RMSE difference of about $0.5^{\circ}C$. Based on the observations of 14 surface drifters, Argo impacts on the current and temperature fields in the surface layer are investigated. In general, surface currents along the drifter positions are improved in the Exp. AllDa, and large RMSE differences (about 2.0~6.0 cm/s) between both experiments are found in drifters which observed longer period in the southern region where Argo density was high. On the other hand, Argo impacts on the SST fields are negligible, and it is considered that SST assimilation with 1-day interval has dominant effects. Similar to the difference of surface current fields between both experiments, SSH fields also reveal significant difference in the southern East Sea, for example the southwestern Yamato Basin where anticyclonic circulation develops. The comparison of SSH fields implies that SSH assimilation does not correct the SSH difference caused by withdrawing Argo data. Thus Argo assimilation has an important role to reproduce meso-scale circulation features in the East Sea.

An Analysis on Factors Related to the Job Satisfaction of Dental Hygienists at J Region (J지역 치과위생사의 직무스트레스 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Hyun-Ok;Ju, On-Ju;Kim, Young-Im
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the job stress and job stressors of dental hygienists. The subjects in the study were 220 dental hygienists who worked in north Jeolla province. After a mail survey was conducted from July 24 through September 24, 2006, the responses from 180 dental hygienists(response rate 81.8%) were gathered, and 156 answer sheets were analyzed except 24 incomplete ones that couldn't be analyzable. The findings of the study were as follows: 1. As for the correlation of overall job stress to turnover intention, their entire stress was under the influence of unreasonable treatment (r = 0.382), conflicts as a professional(r = 0.285), tough working environments(r = 0.303), conflicts with colleagues(r = 0.233), and heavy workload (r = 0.262). Those who were more stressed were more willing to change their occupation, and their stress level made a statistically significant difference to that(p < 0.01). 2. A multiple regression analysis was carried out by selecting the job stressors and turnover intention as independent and dependent variables respectively to see how each of the stressors affected job stress. And unreasonable treatment(p < 0.001) was identified as what had the biggest impact on that, followed by conflicts as a professional(p < 0.05), and tough working environments (p < 0.05). The stressors made a 22.2% prediction of turnover intention.

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A Study on the Visual Preference of Users according to the Location of Benches at Urban Community Parks (도시공원에서 벤치의 배치장소에 따른 이용자의 시각적 선호도에 관한 연구)

  • 유상완;문석기;권상준
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to find out what is the preference of users according to the location of benches at urban community parks. This location of benches is seperated into 4 patterns according to arranging pattern of water space, a walk, pergola and shelter, greenspace. To investigate the visual preference is examined by analyzing visual volume of 4 patterns. Results are as follows; 1. Factor analysis by the total data showed that 5 factors explain 60.40 percent of total variance of the location of bench visual character. They were classified by the sensitive factor, visual factor, physical-individual factor, distinct factor, density factor. Among 5 factors, the sensitive factor which represented psychological reaction was appreciated to be highest. 2. Most of 20 items showed the following scores of mean values in sementic differential experiment : Spot 1->Spot 4-> 2-> 3. The mean values between arrangement place locational differences showed significantly, that could explain to be a violent contrast between the natural factors(weater space, green space, etc) and the artificial factors (around of pergola, shelter, etc)

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