• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Analysis

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근적외선분석계를 이용한 국내산 쌀의 성분예측모델 개발(I) -현미와 백미의 성분예측모델- (Development of a Constituent Prediction Model of Domestic Rice Using Near Infrared Reflectance Analyzer(I) -Constituent Prediction Model of Brown and Milled Rice-)

  • 한충수;동하원강
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.198-207
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    • 1996
  • To measure the moisture content, protein and viscosity of brown and milled rice with Near Infrared Reflectance(NIR) analyzer, the comparison and analysis of the data from the chemical analysis and NIR analyzer were conducted. The purpose of this study is to find out the fundamental data required for the prediction of rice qualify and taste rank, and to develop a measuring method of constituents and physical characteristics of domestic rice with NIR analyzer. The important results can be summarized as follows. 1. The $r^2$ and SEC of moisture calibration from brown rice powder were 0.87 and 0.09 respectively, those of milled rice powder were 0.95 and 0.08 respectively. 2. The $r^2$ and SEC of protein calibration from brown rice powder were 0.83 and 0.20 respectively, those of milled rice powder were 0.86 and 0.20 respectively. 3. The $r^2$ and SEC of viscosity calibration from brown rice powder were 0.36 and 15.50 respectively, those of milled rice powder were 0.55 and 12.98 respectively. Further study is required to develop better prediction model for viscosity. It is necessary the continuous study including wavelength selection, because $r^2$ is small for practical use. 4. The regression equation for one rice variety was nearly coincident with other. Therefore, it is required that the prediction model should be developed for the all rice samples.

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Deformation Monitoring and Prediction Technique of Existing Subway Tunnel: A Case Study of Guangzhou Subway in China

  • Qiu, Dongwei;Huang, He;Song, Dong-Seob
    • 한국측량학회지
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    • 제30권6_2호
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    • pp.623-629
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    • 2012
  • During the construction of crossing engineering one of the important measures to ensure the safety of subway operation is the implementation of deformation surveying to the existing subway tunnel. Guangzhou new subway line 2 engineering which crosses the existing tunnel is taken as the background. How to achieve intelligent and automatic deformation surveying forecast during the subway tunnel construction process is studied. Because large amount of surveying data exists in the subway construction, deformation analysis is difficult and prediction has low accuracy, a subway intelligent deformation prediction model based on the PBIL and support vector machine is proposed. The PBIL algorithm is used to optimize the exact key parameters combination of support vector machine though probability analysis and thereby the predictive ability of the model deformation is greatly improved. Through applications on the Guangzhou subway across deformation surveying deformation engineering the prediction method's predictive ability has high accuracy and the method has high practicality. It can support effective solution to the implementation of the comprehensive and accurate surveying and early warning under subway operation conditions with the environmental interference and complex deformation.

무기체계의 상세설계 단계에 적용을 위한 한국형 정비도 예측 S/W 개발 (Development of Korean Maintainability-Prediction Software for Application to the Detailed Design Stages of Weapon Systems)

  • 권재언;김수주;허장욱
    • 한국기계가공학회지
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    • 제20권10호
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    • pp.102-111
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    • 2021
  • Maintainability is a major design parameter that includes availability as well as reliability in a RAM (reliability, availability, maintainability) analysis, and is an index that must be considered when developing a system. There is a lack of awareness of the importance of predicting and analyzing maintainability; therefore, it is dependent on past-experience data. To improve the utilization rate, maintainability must be managed as a key indicator to meet the user's requirements for failure maintenance time and to reduce life-cycle costs. To improve the maintainability-prediction accuracy in the detailed design stage, we present a maintainability-prediction method that applies Method B of the Military Standardization Handbook (MIL-HDBK-472) Procedure V, as well as a Korean maintainability-prediction software package that reflects the system complexity.

Forecasting performance and determinants of household expenditure on fruits and vegetables using an artificial neural network model

  • Kim, Kyoung Jin;Mun, Hong Sung;Chang, Jae Bong
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제47권4호
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    • pp.769-782
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    • 2020
  • Interest in fruit and vegetables has increased due to changes in consumer consumption patterns, socioeconomic status, and family structure. This study determined the factors influencing the demand for fruit and vegetables (strawberries, paprika, tomatoes and cherry tomatoes) using a panel of Rural Development Administration household-level purchases from 2010 to 2018 and compared the ability to the prediction performance. An artificial neural network model was constructed, linking household characteristics with final food expenditure. Comparing the analysis results of the artificial neural network with the results of the panel model showed that the artificial neural network accurately predicted the pattern of the consumer panel data rather than the fixed effect model. In addition, the prediction for strawberries was found to be heavily affected by the number of families, retail places and income, while the prediction for paprika was largely affected by income, age and retail conditions. In the case of the prediction for tomatoes, they were greatly affected by age, income and place of purchase, and the prediction for cherry tomatoes was found to be affected by age, number of families and retail conditions. Therefore, a more accurate analysis of the consumer consumption pattern was possible through the artificial neural network model, which could be used as basic data for decision making.

Proposals for flexural capacity prediction method of externally prestressed concrete beam

  • Yan, Wu-Tong;Chen, Liang-Jiang;Han, Bing;Wei, Feng;Xie, Hui-Bing;Yu, Jia-Ping
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제83권3호
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    • pp.363-375
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    • 2022
  • Flexural capacity prediction is a challenging problem for externally prestressed concrete beams (EPCBs) due to the unbonded phenomenon between the concrete beam and external tendons. Many prediction equations have been provided in previous research but typically ignored the differences in deformation mode between internal and external unbonded tendons. The availability of these equations for EPCBs is controversial due to the inconsistent deformation modes and ignored second-order effects. In this study, the deformation characteristics and collapse mechanism of EPCB are carefully considered, and the ultimate deflected shape curves are derived based on the simplified curvature distribution. With the compatible relation between external tendons and the concrete beam, the equations of tendon elongation and eccentricity loss at ultimate states are derived, and the geometric interpretation is clearly presented. Combined with the sectional equilibrium equations, a rational and simplified flexural capacity prediction method for EPCBs is proposed. The key parameter, plastic hinge length, is emphatically discussed and determined by the sensitivity analysis of 324 FE analysis results. With 94 collected laboratory-tested results, the effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed, and comparisons with the previous formulas are made. The results show the better prediction accuracy of the proposed method for both stress increments and flexural capacity of EPCBs and the main reasons are discussed.

A Study on Crime Prediction to Reduce Crime Rate Based on Artificial Intelligence

  • KIM, Kyoung-Sook;JEONG, Yeong-Hoon
    • 한국인공지능학회지
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.15-20
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    • 2021
  • This paper was conducted to prevent and respond to crimes by predicting crimes based on artificial intelligence. While the quality of life is improving with the recent development of science and technology, various problems such as poverty, unemployment, and crime occur. Among them, in the case of crime problems, the importance of crime prediction increases as they become more intelligent, advanced, and diversified. For all crimes, it is more critical to predict and prevent crimes in advance than to deal with them well after they occur. Therefore, in this paper, we predicted crime types and crime tools using the Multiclass Logistic Regression algorithm and Multiclass Neural Network algorithm of machine learning. Multiclass Logistic Regression algorithm showed higher accuracy, precision, and recall for analysis and prediction than Multiclass Neural Network algorithm. Through these analysis results, it is expected to contribute to a more pleasant and safe life by implementing a crime prediction system that predicts and prevents various crimes. Through further research, this researcher plans to create a model that predicts the probability of a criminal committing a crime again according to the type of offense and deploy it to a web service.

관망자료를 이용한 인공지능 기반의 누수 예측 (Artificial Intelligence-based Leak Prediction using Pipeline Data)

  • 이호현;홍성택
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제26권7호
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    • pp.963-971
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    • 2022
  • 상수도 관망은 국가 수도 시설의 주요한 구성 요소이지만 대부분이 지중에 매립되어 있어 배관의 노후화 정도 및 누수를 파악하기 어려우므로 유지관리 하기가 매우 어렵다. 본 연구에서는 관망에 설치된 다양한 센서 조합을 가정하여, 데이터 조합에 따른 관로 누수 판별 가능성을 검토하기 위하여 선형회귀분석, 뉴로퍼지 등의 인공지능 알고리즘을 통한 유량과 압력 예측을 실시하여 최적 알고리즘을 도출하였다. 공급압력 예측을 통한 누수판별의 경우 뉴로퍼지 알고리즘이 선형회귀분석에 비하여 우수하였다. 누수유량 예측에서는 뉴로퍼지를 이용한 유량예측이 우선 고려되어야 한다. 다만, 유량을 모사하기 힘든 경우에는 선형 알고리즘을 이용한 공급압력 예측이 이루어져야 할 것으로 사료 된다.

지도학습 기반 수출물량 및 수출금액 예측 모델 개발 (Development of Export Volume and Export Amount Prediction Models Based on Supervised Learning)

  • 나동길;유영웅
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제46권2호
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    • pp.152-159
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    • 2023
  • Due to COVID-19, changes in consumption trends are taking place in the distribution sector, such as an increase in non-face-to-face consumption and a rapid growth in the online shopping market. However, it is difficult for small and medium-sized export sellers to obtain forecast information on the export market by country, compared to large distributors who can easily build a global sales network. This study is about the prediction of export amount and export volume by country and item for market information analysis of small and medium export sellers. A prediction model was developed using Lasso, XGBoost, and MLP models based on supervised learning and deep learning, and export trends for clothing, cosmetics, and household electronic devices were predicted for Korea's major export countries, the United States, China, and Vietnam. As a result of the prediction, the performance of MAE and RMSE for the Lasso model was excellent, and based on the development results, a market analysis system for small and medium sellers was developed.

에폭시 아스팔트 혼합물의 에폭시 화학 조성에 따른 양생수준 예측 (A Study on Curing Level Prediction Model for Varying Chemical Composition of Epoxy Asphalt Mixture)

  • 조신행;김낙석
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제35권2호
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    • pp.465-470
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    • 2015
  • 에폭시 아스팔트 혼합물은 에폭시 수지와 경화제의 화학반응이 진행되어 양생시간을 거쳐 성능 발현이 이루어진다. 에폭시 아스팔트의 양생수준은 후속공정의 진행과 교통개방 및 공정계획의 수립에 절대적인 영향을 미치므로 정확한 예측모델의 개발이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 기존 예측식에 사용되는 인자들의 화학적 의미 분석을 통하여 에폭시 수지의 농도와 경화특성을 반영하여 기존식보다 확대된 적용 범위를 갖는 양생수준 예측식을 제시하였다. 실외양생 실험과 비교 결과 상관계수가 0.971 이상으로 나타나 조성이 다른 에폭시 아스팔트 혼합물의 온도와 시간에 따른 양생수준을 예측할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다.

CNN-LSTM Coupled Model for Prediction of Waterworks Operation Data

  • Cao, Kerang;Kim, Hangyung;Hwang, Chulhyun;Jung, Hoekyung
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • 제14권6호
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    • pp.1508-1520
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we propose an improved model to provide users with a better long-term prediction of waterworks operation data. The existing prediction models have been studied in various types of models such as multiple linear regression model while considering time, days and seasonal characteristics. But the existing model shows the rate of prediction for demand fluctuation and long-term prediction is insufficient. Particularly in the deep running model, the long-short-term memory (LSTM) model has been applied to predict data of water purification plant because its time series prediction is highly reliable. However, it is necessary to reflect the correlation among various related factors, and a supplementary model is needed to improve the long-term predictability. In this paper, convolutional neural network (CNN) model is introduced to select various input variables that have a necessary correlation and to improve long term prediction rate, thus increasing the prediction rate through the LSTM predictive value and the combined structure. In addition, a multiple linear regression model is applied to compile the predicted data of CNN and LSTM, which then confirms the data as the final predicted outcome.