• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction#4

Search Result 6,614, Processing Time 0.038 seconds

Studies on Discrimination between Organic Rice and Non-organic Rice using Natural Abundance of Stable Isotope Nitrogen($\delta^{15}N$) (질소 안정동위원소 자연존재비($\delta^{15}N$)를 이용한 유기벼와 일반벼 판별법 탐색)

  • Lee, Hyo-Won;Lee, Sang-Mo
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.257-269
    • /
    • 2010
  • To investigate the possibility of discrimination between organic and non-organic rice using stable isotope nitrogen of natural abundance, organic rice of 17 samples and non-organic rice of 13 samples grown at adjoining organic rice field were collected in 2008. Rice was grinded into brown rice, milled rice and hull, and samples were analysed for nitrogen and $\delta^{15}N$ at NICEM. Authors also made inquiries about N source for both farmers who conduct organic- and non-organic rice cultivation. In order to know whether the $\delta^{15}N$ can be used in discrimination between organic and non-organic rice, discriminant analysis were made with SPSS and logistic method. 1. Organic farmers used manure, rice bran, used mushroom culture, fermented fertilizer (company products), and oil cake, but non-organic farmers applied compound fertilizer. Rice straws were remained in organic rice field while moved out in non-organic field. 2. There were difference in $\delta^{15}N$ among organic rice and its byproduct(7.760????% in hull, 6.720????% in rice), but significant difference was not found between them. And the trend was same between province. Non-organic rice showed similar results. 3. Significant difference of $\delta^{15}N$ were found between organic rice and non-organic rice (p<0.01) and between hull of organic rice and that of non-organic rice hull (p<0.05). $\delta^{15}N$ seemed to be useful criteria for discrimination of organic and non-organic rice. 4. When applied discrimination analysis of SPSS and logistic, there were significant difference between organic rice, non-organic rice and its byproducts except brown rice and hull in SPSS method. Hull can be used as the most useful component for unknown sample prediction with 83.3% probability.

A Study on Dose-Response Models for Foodborne Disease Pathogens (주요 식중독 원인 미생물들에 대한 용량-반응 모델 연구)

  • Park, Myoung Su;Cho, June Ill;Lee, Soon Ho;Bahk, Gyung Jin
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.29 no.4
    • /
    • pp.299-304
    • /
    • 2014
  • The dose-response models are important for the quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) because they would enable prediction of infection risk to humans from foodborne pathogens. In this study, we performed a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis to better quantify this association. The meta-analysis applied a final selection of 193 published papers for total 43 species foodborne disease pathogens (bacteria 26, virus 9, and parasite 8 species) which were identified and classified based on the dose-response models related to QMRA studies from PubMed, ScienceDirect database and internet websites during 1980-2012. The main search keywords used the combination "food", "foodborne disease pathogen", "dose-response model", and "quantitative microbiological risk assessment". The appropriate dose-response models for Campylobacter jejuni, pathogenic E. coli O157:H7 (EHEC / EPEC / ETEC), Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio cholera, Rota virus, and Cryptosporidium pavum were beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.15$, ${\beta}=7.59$, fi = 0.72), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.49$, ${\beta}=1.81{\times}10^5$, fi = 0.67) / beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.22$, ${\beta}=8.70{\times}10^3$, fi = 0.40) / beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.18$, ${\beta}=8.60{\times}10^7$, fi = 0.60), exponential (r=$1.18{\times}10^{-10}$, fi = 0.14), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.11$, ${\beta}=6,097$, fi = 0.09), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.21$, ${\beta}=1,120$, fi = 0.15), exponential ($r=7.64{\times}10^{-8}$, fi = 1.00), betapoisson (${\alpha}=0.17$, ${\beta}=1.18{\times}10^5$, fi = 1.00), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.25$, ${\beta}=16.2$, fi = 0.57), exponential ($r=1.73{\times}10{-2}$, fi = 1.00), and exponential ($r=1.73{\times}10^{-2}$, fi = 0.17), respectively. Therefore, these results provide the preliminary data necessary for the development of foodborne pathogens QMRA.

Effect of Green Tea and Saw Dust Contents on Dynamic Modulus of Elasticity of Hybrid Composite Boards and Prediction of Static Bending Strength Performances (이종복합보드의 동적탄성률에 미치는 녹차와 톱밥 배합비율의 영향 및 정적 휨 강도성능의 예측)

  • Park, Han-Min;Lee, Soo-Kyeong;Seok, Ji-Hoon;Choi, Nam-Kyeong;Kwon, Chang-Bae;Heo, Hwang-Sun;Byeon, Hee-Seop;Yang, Jae-Kyung;Kim, Jong-Chul
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
    • /
    • v.46 no.2
    • /
    • pp.9-17
    • /
    • 2012
  • In this study, in addition to the green tea - wood fiber hybrid composite boards of previous researches, to make effective use of saw dust of domestic cypress tree with functionalities and application as interior materials, eco-friendly hybrid composite boards were manufactured from wood fiber, green tea and saw dust of cypress tree. We investigated the effect of the component ratio of saw dust and green tea on dynamic MOE (modulus of elasticity). Dynamic MOE was within 1.41~1.65 GPa, and showed the highest value in wood fiber : green tea : saw dust = 50 : 40 : 10 of the component ratio, and had the lowest value in 50 : 30 : 20 of component ratio. These values were 1.4~1.6 times higher than static bending MOE of wood fiber - saw dust - green tea hybrid composite boards, and were 2.0~2.9 times lower than those of green tea - wood fiber hybrid composite boards reported in the previous researches. From the results of correlation regression analyses between dynamic MOE and static strength performances, a very high correlation coefficients were obtained, therefore it was found that static bending strength performances can be estimated with a high reliability from dynamic MOE.

Review on Research Result for Bophi Vum Chrome Mineralized Zone in Northwestern Myanmar (미얀마 북서부 보피붐 크롬광화대 연구결과 리뷰)

  • Heo, Chul-Ho;Ryoo, Chung-Ryul;Park, Gyesoon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.52 no.5
    • /
    • pp.499-508
    • /
    • 2019
  • Based on the preliminary surveys for the occurrences of the Muwellut chrome-nickel mineralized zone ($800km^2$) in northwestern Myanmar, Bophivum area was selected as the detailed exploration area after considering data source, geological potential, metallogenic province, necessity of resource development on target mineral, exploration activity, grade, ore deposit type, nearby operating mine, infrastructure and exploration prediction effect. From 2013 to 2016, KIGAM and DGSE carried out geological and geochemical survey with 1:1,000 scale, magnetic survey(areal extent, $1.672km^2$), trench survey(19 trench, total length 392 m), pitting survey(18 pit, total depth 42.6m), exploration drilling(6holes 600m, 2015; 13holes 617.4m). We analyzed Cr and Ni contents of 77 drill cores with specific gravity in Yangon DGSE analytical center. Considering surface geological survey, geochemical exploration, magnetic survey, trench survey and drilling data, we divided Bophivum area into 8 blocks. Resource estimation are divided into measured and indicated resources. Measured resource is about 9,790t and indicated resource is about 12,080t with the average grade of Cr 11.8% and Ni 0.34%. In case of Bophivum area, if we develop by tying up Webula chrome mineralized zone in the south, it will be possible to upgrade the medium-scale mine. Geologically, the ophiolite belt are distributed in the western and eastern part in Myanmar. So, the exploration technology obtained from exploation in Bophivum area will be helpful to discover the hidden chromitite ore body in Myanmar ophiolite belt in the future.

Prognostic Value of Day 3 Inhibin-B on Assisted Reproductive Technology Outcome (보조 생식술 결과에 있어서 기저혈중 Inhibin-B의 예후인자로서의 유용성)

  • Bai, Sang-Wook;Kim, Jin-Young;Lee, Kyung-Sool;Won, Jong-Gun;Lee, Yong-Joo;Yi, Ji-Won;Chang, Kyung-Hwan;Lee, Byung-Seok;Park, Ki-Hyun;Cho, Dong-Jae;Song, Chan-Ho
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.217-223
    • /
    • 1997
  • This study was performed to determine if women with day 3 serum inhibin-B concentrations <45pg/ml (conversion factor to SI unit, 1.00) demonstrate a poor response to ovulation induction and assisted reproductive technology outcome to women with inhibin-B${\ge}45pg$/ml, independant of day 3 FSH, E2 and patient age. From Jan 1996 to Dec 1996, 16 volunteers patients who underwent 25 IVF cycles with luteal phase GnRH agonist suppression and HMG stimulation were allocated to the study group. We evaluated day 3 serum inhibin-B, FSH, E2, peak E2, cancellation rate per initiated cycle (%) and clinical pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (%) according to the above two groups and independent of patient age, day 3 FSH, day 3 E2 and all of above combined. Women with day 3 serum inhibin-B${\ge}45pg$/ml demonstrated higher average day 3 inhibin-B level, clinical pregnancy rate per initiated cycle ($20.3{\pm}2.5$ pg/ml vs $80.9{\pm}5.0$ pg/ml, p<0.05; 24.8% vs 8.5%, p<0.05) and lower day 3 FSH level, cancellation rate per initiated cycle ($6.9{\pm}0.3$ mIU/ml vs $8.5{\pm}0.5$ mIU/ml, p<0.05; 1.5% vs 9.0%, p<0.05). Women with day 3 serum inhibin${\ge}45pg$/ml and age<40 year demonstrated higher pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (28.2% vs 7.4%, p<0.05) and lows. day 3 FSH level, cancellation rate per initiated cycle ($6.9{\pm}0.5$ mIU/ml vs $8.2{\pm}0.7$ mIU/ml, p<0.05; 1.0% vs 9.0%, p<0.05). Women with day 3 serum inhibin${\ge}45pg$/ml and day 3 FSH<15mIU/ml demonstrated higher pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (33.5% vs 9.5%, p<0.05) and lower day 3 FSH level, cancellation rate per initiated cycle ($7.7{\pm}0.2$ mIU/ml vs $8.5{\pm}0.5$ mIU/ml, p<0.05; 1.5% vs 10.0%, p<0.05). Women with day 3 serum inhibin${\ge}45pg$/ml and day 3 E2<50pg/ml demonstrated higher pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (30.0% vs 9.5%, p<0.05) and lower cancellation rate per initiated cycle (1.5% vs 9.5%, p<0.05). Women with day 3 serum inhibin${\ge}45pg$/ml, age<40 year, day 3 FSH<15mIU/ml and day 3 E2<50pg/ml demonstrated higher pregnancy rate per initiated cycle (30.0% vs 10.8%, p<0.05) and lower day 3 FSH level, cancellation rate per initiated cycle ($6.8{\pm}0.6$ mIU/ml vs $8.4{\pm}0.9$ mIU/ml, p<0.05; 1.5% vs 7.8%, p<0.05). Therefore women with low day 3 serum inhibin-B concentrations demonstrate a poorer response to ovulation induction and are less likely to conceive a clinical pregnancy though ART relative to women with high day 3 inhibin-B and day 3 serum inhibin-B, in addition to a day 3 FSH, E2 and patient age, appears helpful in prediction in IVF-ET outcome.

  • PDF

Recent Changes in Bloom Dates of Robinia pseudoacacia and Bloom Date Predictions Using a Process-Based Model in South Korea (최근 12년간 아까시나무 만개일의 변화와 과정기반모형을 활용한 지역별 만개일 예측)

  • Kim, Sukyung;Kim, Tae Kyung;Yoon, Sukhee;Jang, Keunchang;Lim, Hyemin;Lee, Wi Young;Won, Myoungsoo;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Hyun Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.110 no.3
    • /
    • pp.322-340
    • /
    • 2021
  • Due to climate change and its consequential spring temperature rise, flowering time of Robinia pseudoacacia has advanced and a simultaneous blooming phenomenon occurred in different regions in South Korea. These changes in flowering time became a major crisis in the domestic beekeeping industry and the demand for accurate prediction of flowering time for R. pseudoacacia is increasing. In this study, we developed and compared performance of four different models predicting flowering time of R. pseudoacacia for the entire country: a Single Model for the country (SM), Modified Single Model (MSM) using correction factors derived from SM, Group Model (GM) estimating parameters for each region, and Local Model (LM) estimating parameters for each site. To achieve this goal, the bloom date data observed at 26 points across the country for the past 12 years (2006-2017) and daily temperature data were used. As a result, bloom dates for the north central region, where spring temperature increase was more than two-fold higher than southern regions, have advanced and the differences compared with the southwest region decreased by 0.7098 days per year (p-value=0.0417). Model comparisons showed MSM and LM performed better than the other models, as shown by 24% and 15% lower RMSE than SM, respectively. Furthermore, validation with 16 additional sites for 4 years revealed co-krigging of LM showed better performance than expansion of MSM for the entire nation (RMSE: p-value=0.0118, Bias: p-value=0.0471). This study improved predictions of bloom dates for R. pseudoacacia and proposed methods for reliable expansion to the entire nation.

Validation of Satellite Scatterometer Sea-Surface Wind Vectors (MetOp-A/B ASCAT) in the Korean Coastal Region (한반도 연안해역에서 인공위성 산란계(MetOp-A/B ASCAT) 해상풍 검증)

  • Kwak, Byeong-Dae;Park, Kyung-Ae;Woo, Hye-Jin;Kim, Hee-Young;Hong, Sung-Eun;Sohn, Eun-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.42 no.5
    • /
    • pp.536-555
    • /
    • 2021
  • Sea-surface wind is an important variable in ocean-atmosphere interactions, leading to the changes in ocean surface currents and circulation, mixed layers, and heat flux. With the development of satellite technology, sea-surface winds data retrieved from scatterometer observation data have been used for various purposes. In a complex marine environment such as the Korean Peninsula coast, scatterometer-observed sea-surface wind is an important factor for analyzing ocean and atmospheric phenomena. Therefore, the validation results of wind accuracy can be used for diverse applications. In this study, the sea-surface winds derived from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) mounted on MetOp-A/B (METeorological Operational Satellite-A/B) were validated compared to in-situ wind measurements at 16 marine buoy stations around the Korean Peninsula from January to December 2020. The buoy winds measured at a height of 4-5 m from the sea surface were converted to 10-m neutral winds using the LKB (Liu-Katsaros-Businger) model. The matchup procedure produced 5,544 and 10,051 collocation points for MetOp-A and MetOp-B, respectively. The root mean square errors (RMSE) were 1.36 and 1.28 m s-1, and bias errors amounted to 0.44 and 0.65 m s-1 for MetOp-A and MetOp-B, respectively. The wind directions of both scatterometers exhibited negative biases of -8.03° and -6.97° and RMSE values of 32.46° and 36.06° for MetOp-A and MetOp-B, respectively. These errors were likely associated with the stratification and dynamics of the marine-atmospheric boundary layer. In the seas around the Korean Peninsula, the sea-surface winds of the ASCAT tended to be more overestimated than the in-situ wind speeds, particularly at weak wind speeds. In addition, the closer the distance from the coast, the more the amplification of error. The present results could contribute to the development of a prediction model as improved input data and the understanding of air-sea interaction and impact of typhoons in the coastal regions around the Korean Peninsula.

Comparison of Wind Vectors Derived from GK2A with Aeolus/ALADIN (위성기반 GK2A의 대기운동벡터와 Aeolus/ALADIN 바람 비교)

  • Shin, Hyemin;Ahn, Myoung-Hwan;KIM, Jisoo;Lee, Sihye;Lee, Byung-Il
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.37 no.6_1
    • /
    • pp.1631-1645
    • /
    • 2021
  • This research aims to provide the characteristics of the world's first active lidar sensor Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) wind data and Geostationary Korea Multi Purpose Satellite 2A (GK2A) Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) data by comparing two wind data. As a result of comparing the data from September 2019 to August 1, 2020, The total number of collocated data for the AMV (using IR channel) and Mie channel ALADIN data is 177,681 which gives the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.73 m/s and the correlation coefficient is 0.98. For a more detailed analysis, Comparison result considering altitude and latitude, the Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) is 0.2-0.3 at most latitude bands. However, the upper and middle layers in the lower latitudes and the lower layer in the southern hemispheric are larger than 0.4 at specific latitudes. These results are the same for the water vapor channel and the visible channel regardless of the season, and the channel-specific and seasonal characteristics do not appear prominently. Furthermore, as a result of analyzing the distribution of clouds in the latitude band with a large difference between the two wind data, Cirrus or cumulus clouds, which can lower the accuracy of height assignment of AMV, are distributed more than at other latitude bands. Accordingly, it is suggested that ALADIN wind data in the southern hemisphere and low latitude band, where the error of the AMV is large, can have a positive effect on the numerical forecast model.

Calculation Method of Oil Slick Area on Sea Surface Using High-resolution Satellite Imagery: M/V Symphony Oil Spill Accident (고해상도 광학위성을 이용한 해상 유출유 면적 산출: 심포니호 기름유출 사고 사례)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Shin, Hye-Kyeong;Jang, So Yeong;Ryu, Joung-Mi;Kim, Pyeongjoong;Yang, Chan-Su
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.37 no.6_1
    • /
    • pp.1773-1784
    • /
    • 2021
  • In order to minimize damage to oil spill accidents in the ocean, it is essential to collect a spilled area as soon as possible. Thus satellite-based remote sensing is a powerful source to detect oil spills in the ocean. With the recent rapid increase in the number of available satellites, it has become possible to generate a status report of marine oil spills soon after the accident. In this study, the oil spill area was calculated using various satellite images for the Symphony oil spill accident that occurred off the coast of Qingdao Port, China, on April 27, 2021. In particular, improving the accuracy of oil spill area determination was applied using high-resolution commercial satellite images with a spatial resolution of 2m. Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, LANDSAT-8, GEO-KOMPSAT-2B (GOCI-II) and Skysat satellite images were collected from April 27 to May 13, but five images were available considering the weather conditions. The spilled oil had spread northeastward, bound for coastal region of China. This trend was confirmed in the Skysat image and also similar to the movement prediction of oil particles from the accident location. From this result, the look-alike patch observed in the north area from the Sentinel-1A (2021.05.01) image was discriminated as a false alarm. Through the survey period, the spilled oil area tends to increase linearly after the accident. This study showed that high-resolution optical satellites can be used to calculate more accurately the distribution area of spilled oil and contribute to establishing efficient response strategies for oil spill accidents.

Analytical Review of the Forensic Anthropological Techniques for Stature Estimation in Korea (한국에서 사용되는 법의인류학적 키 추정 방법에 대한 제언)

  • Jeong, Yangseung;Woo, Eun Jin
    • Anatomy & Biological Anthropology
    • /
    • v.31 no.4
    • /
    • pp.121-131
    • /
    • 2018
  • Stature is one of the unique biological properties of a person, which can be used for identification of the individual. In this regard, statures are estimated for the unknown victims from crimes and disasters. However, the accuracy of estimates may be compromised by inappropriate methodologies and/or practices of stature estimation. Discussed in this study are the methodological issues related to the current practices of forensic anthropological stature estimation in Korea, followed by suggestions to enhance the accuracy of the stature estimates. Summaries of forensic anthropological examinations for 560 skeletal remains, which were conducted at the National Forensic Service (NFS), were reviewed. Mr. Yoo Byung-eun's case is utilized as an example of the NFS's practices. To estimate Mr. Yoo's stature, Trotter's (1970) femur equation was applied even though the fibula equation of a lower standard error was available. In his case report, the standard error associated with the equation (${\pm}3.8cm$) was interpreted as an 'error range', which gave a hasty impression that the prediction interval is that narrow. Also, stature shrinkage by aging was not considered, so the estimated stature in Mr. Yoo's case report should be regarded as his maximum living stature, rather than his stature-at-death. Lastly, applying Trotter's (1970) White female equations to Korean female remains is likely to underestimate their statures. The anatomical method will enhance the accuracy of stature estimates. However, in cases that the anatomical method is not feasible, the mathematical method based on Korean samples should be considered. Since 1980's, effort has been made to generate stature estimation equations using Korean samples. Applying the equations based on Korean samples to Korean skeletal remains will enhance the accuracy of the stature estimates, which will eventually increase the likelihood of successful identification of the unknowns.