• 제목/요약/키워드: Precipitation estimation

검색결과 486건 처리시간 0.031초

Characterization Of Rainrate Fields Using A Multi-Dimensional Precipitation Model

  • Yoo, Chul-sang;Kwon, Snag-woo
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • 제1권2호
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    • pp.147-158
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    • 2000
  • In this study, we characterized the seasonal variation of rainrate fields in the Han river basin using the WGR multi-dimensional precipitation model (Waymire, Gupta, and Rodriguez-Iturbe, 1984) by estimating and comparing the parameters derived for each month and for the plain area, the mountain area and overall basin, respectively. The first-and second-order statistics derived from observed point gauge data were used to estimate the model parameters based on the Davidon-Fletcher-Powell algorithm of optimization. As a result of the study, we can find that the higher rainfall amount during summer is mainly due to the arrival rate of rain bands, mean number of cells per cluster potential center, and raincell intensity. However, other parameters controlling the mean number of rain cells per cluster, the cellular birth rate, and the mean cell age are found invariant to the rainfall amounts. In the application to the downstream plain area and upstream mountain area of the Han river basin, we found that the number of storms in the mountain area was estimated a little higher than that in the plain area, but the cell intensity in the mountain area a little lower than that in the plain area. Thus, in the mountain area more frequent but less intense storms can be expected due to the orographic effect, but the total amount of rainfall in a given period seems to remain the same.

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서울지역 강우자료를 이용한 침투량 산정과 사면에서의 침투거동 모의 (Estimation of Infiltration and Simulation of Seepage Behavior in Slope using the Rainfall Data in Seoul)

  • 이일주;오태석;문영일
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.103-109
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    • 2008
  • 사면에서의 강우는 경사와 토양의 물리적 성질에 따라 침투와 유출이 분리되게 되는데, 사면 해석에서는 강우가 모두 침투된다는 가정 하에 분석이 이루어져 지하수위가 과대 산정되는 경향이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 서울지점의 강우분석에 이어 해석적 침투모형 중 적용성이 뛰어난 NRCS 모형과 Horton 모형을 이용하여 토양형에 따른 침투량과 유출량을 분리시킨 후, 토양을 분석하였다. 사면의 경사는 국내 설계기준에 의해 많이 적용되는 경사에 대한 단면을 구성하였으며, 산정된 침투량을 바탕으로 경사보정을 한 후 수치해석을 통해 침투거동 및 지하수위양상에 대해 분석하였다. 분석 결과에서 토양형이 D형에서 A형으로 갈수록 지하수위 변화양상이 크게 나타났다.

Assessing the Impacts of Errors in Coarse Scale Data on the Performance of Spatial Downscaling: An Experiment with Synthetic Satellite Precipitation Products

  • Kim, Yeseul;Park, No-Wook
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.445-454
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    • 2017
  • The performance of spatial downscaling models depends on the quality of input coarse scale products. Thus, the impact of intrinsic errors contained in coarse scale satellite products on predictive performance should be properly assessed in parallel with the development of advanced downscaling models. Such an assessment is the main objective of this paper. Based on a synthetic satellite precipitation product at a coarse scale generated from rain gauge data, two synthetic precipitation products with different amounts of error were generated and used as inputs for spatial downscaling. Geographically weighted regression, which typically has very high explanatory power, was selected as the trend component estimation model, and area-to-point kriging was applied for residual correction in the spatial downscaling experiment. When errors in the coarse scale product were greater, the trend component estimates were much more susceptible to errors. But residual correction could reduce the impact of the erroneous trend component estimates, which improved the predictive performance. However, residual correction could not improve predictive performance significantly when substantial errors were contained in the input coarse scale data. Therefore, the development of advanced spatial downscaling models should be focused on correction of intrinsic errors in the coarse scale satellite product if a priori error information could be available, rather than on the application of advanced regression models with high explanatory power.

레이더 자료를 이용한 강우입자분포의 통계적 분석 연구 (Rain Cell Size Distribution Using Radar Data During Squall Line Episodes)

  • Ricardo S. Tenorio;Kwon, Byung-Hyuk;Lee, Dong-In
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제4권5호
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    • pp.971-976
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    • 2000
  • The main objective of this paper is to present the rain cell size distribution observed during squall line episodes in the Sudano-Sahelian region. The used data were collected during the EPSAT Program [Etude des Precipitation par SATellite (Satellites Study of Precipitation)] which has been developed since 1958, on an experimental area located near Niamey, Niger (2 10′32"E, 13 28′38"N). The data were obtained with a C-band radar and a network composed of approximately 100 raingages over a 10,000 $\textrm{km}^2$. In this work a culling of the squall line episodes was made for the 1992 rainy season. After radar data calibration using the raingage network a number of PPI (Plan Position Indicator) images were generated. Each image was then treated in order to obtain a series of radar reflectivity (Z) maps. To describe the cell distribution, a contouring program was used to analyze the areas with rain rate greater than or equal to the contour threshold (R$\geq$$\tau$). 24700 contours were generated, where each iso-pleth belongs to a predefined threshold. Computing each cell surface and relating its area to an equi-circle (a circle having the same area as the cell), a statistical analysis was made. The results show that the number of rain cells having a given size is an inverse exponential function of the equivalent radius. The average and median equivalent radii ate 1.4 and 0.69 In respectively. Implications of these results for the precipitation estimation using threshold methods are discussed.

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IDENTIFICATION OF POSSIBLE MERCURY SOURCES AND ESTIMATION OF MERCURY WET DEPOSITION FLUX IN LAKE ONTARIO FROM LAKE ONTARIO ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION STUDY (LOADS)

  • Han, Young-Ji
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제10권6호
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    • pp.306-315
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    • 2005
  • Total gas phase mercury (TGM) concentrations and event wet-only precipitation for Hg were collected for nine months (from April, 2002 to Dec., 2002) at Sterling, NY on the shoreline of Lake Ontario. TGM concentrations measured in this study ($3.02{\pm}2.14\;ng/m^3$) were in somewhat high range compared to other background sites. Using simplified quantitative transport bias analysis (SQTBA) possible sources affecting high Hg concentration in Sterling was identified, and they are coal-fired power plants located in southern NY and Pennsylvania. Wet deposition measured at Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) sites including Pt. Petre and Egbert, ON were compared with data obtained at the Sterling to estimate the total mercury wet deposition flux to Lake Ontario. The wet deposition flux was calculated to be the highest at the Sterling site ($7.94\;{\mu}g/m^2$ from April, 2002 to Dec. 2002) and the lowest at the Egbert ($3.92\;{\mu}g/m^2$), due to the both the difference in precipitation depth and Hg concentration in the precipitation. The deposition measured at the Sterling site is similar to Lake Michigan deposition of $6-14\;{\mu}g/m^2$ (converted for ninth months) measured for Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study (LMMBS).

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in Thailand Using Geographic Information System

  • Kingpaiboon, Sununtha;Netwong, Titiya
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
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    • pp.804-806
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    • 2003
  • Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is essential in the design of hydraulic structures such as dams, weirs and flood control structures. Up to the present, PMP has been derived from any proper single storm which can have a large error. PMP values should be evaluated from many historic heavy storm events from all over the country. Since this can be done at the spots of storm occurring and the calculated PMP from all spots in the country can be correlated. The objectives of this study are therefore to evaluate PMP from historic heavy storm data from 1972 to 2000 by using meteorological method, then to correlate and to present the results using GIS. The maximized rainfall depths can be calculate from depth of heavy rainfall and dew point temperature, and then can be analyzed for each rainfall duration to obtain spatial rainfall distribution by using GIS. The depth-area-duration relationship of maximized rainfall can be obtained and this helps to develop enveloped curves . The results from this study are a set of contour maps of PMP for each rainfall duration for all over the country and the depth-area-duration relationships for the area of 100 to 50,000 km.$^{2}$ at duration of 1, 2 and 3 days.

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유효가뭄지수(EDI)를 이용한 한반도 미래 가뭄 특성 전망 (Projection of Future Changes in Drought Characteristics in Korea Peninsula Using Effective Drought Index)

  • 곽용석;조재필;정임국;김도우;장상민
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.31-45
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    • 2018
  • This study implemented the prediction of drought properties (number of drought events, intensity, duration) using the user-oriented systematical procedures of downscaling climate change scenarios based the multiple global climate models (GCMs), AIMS (APCC Integrated Modeling Solution) program. The drought properties were defined and estimated with Effective Drought Index (EDI). The optimal 10 models among 29 GCMs were selected, by the estimation of the spatial and temporal reproducibility about the five climate change indices related with precipitation. In addition, Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) as the downscaling technique is much better in describing the observed precipitation events than Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM). Even though the procedure was systematically applied, there are still limitations in describing the observed spatial precipitation properties well due to the offset of spatial variability in multi-model ensemble (MME) analysis. As a result, the farther into the future, the duration and the number of drought generation will be decreased, while the intensity of drought will be increased. Regionally, the drought at the central regions of the Korean Peninsula is expected to be mitigated, while that at the southern regions are expected to be severe.

원격탐사자료를 이용한 시⋅공간적으로 분포되어 있는 토양수분산정 및 가뭄평가: (II) 가뭄 (Soil Moisture Estimation and Drought Assessment at the Spatio-Temporal Scales using Remotely Sensed Data: (II) Drought)

  • 신용철;최경숙;정영훈;양재의;임경재
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.70-79
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    • 2016
  • Based on the soil moisture data assimilation suggested in the first paper (I), we estimated root zone soil moisture and evaluated drought severity using remotely sensed (RS) data. We tested the impacts of various spatial resolutions on soil moisture variations, and the model outputs showed that resolutions of more than 2-3 km resulted in over-/under-estimation of soil moisture values. Thus, we derived the 2 km resolution-scaled soil moisture dynamics and assessed the drought severity at the study sites (Chungmi-cheon sites 1 and 2) based on the estimated soil/root parameters and weather forcings. The drought indices at the sites were affected mainly by precipitation during the spring season, while both the precipitation and land surface characteristics influence the spatial distribution of drought during the rainy season. Also, the drought severity showed a periodic cycle, but additional research on drought cycles should be conducted using long-term historical data. Our proposed approach enabled estimation of daily root zone soil moisture dynamics and evaluation of drought severity at various spatial scales using MODIS data. Thus, this approach will facilitate efficient management of water resources.

An advanced single-particle model for C3S hydration - validating the statistical independence of model parameters

  • Biernacki, Joseph J.;Gottapu, Manohar
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.989-999
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    • 2015
  • An advanced continuum-based multi-physical single particle model was recently introduce for the hydration of tricalcium silicate ($C_3S$). In this model, the dissolution and the precipitation events are modeled as two different yet simultaneous chemical reactions. Product precipitation involves a nucleation and growth mechanism wherein nucleation is assumed to happen only at the surface of the unreacted core and product growth is characterized via a two-step densification mechanism having rapid growth of a low density initial product followed by slow densification. Although this modeling strategy has been shown to nicely mimic all stages of $C_3S$ hydration - dissolution, dormancy (induction), the onset of rapid hydration, the transition to slow hydration and prolonged reaction - the major criticism is that many adjustable parameters are required. If formulated correctly, however, the model parameters are shown here to be statistically independent and significant.

수자원 가용능력을 고려한 수문학적 가뭄지수의 개발 (Development of a Hydrological Drought Index Considering Water Availability)

  • 박민지;신형진;최영돈;박재영;김성준
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제53권6호
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    • pp.165-170
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    • 2011
  • Recently natural disasters such as the frequency and intensity of drought have been increasing as a result of climate change. This study suggests a drought index, WADI (Water Availability Drought Index), that considers water availability using 6 components (water intake, groundwater level, agricultural reservoir water level, dam inflow, streamflow, and precipitation) using the Z score and data monitoring on a nationwide level. SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) was applied in coastal area. For the severe droughts of 2001 spring and 2008 autumn, the index was evaluated by comparison with reported damage areas. suggested to combine The spatial concordance rate of WADI in 2001 and 2008 for estimation of the degree of drought severity was 50 % and 24 % compared to the actual recorded data respectively.