• Title/Summary/Keyword: Pre-design

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Development of deep learning structure for complex microbial incubator applying deep learning prediction result information (딥러닝 예측 결과 정보를 적용하는 복합 미생물 배양기를 위한 딥러닝 구조 개발)

  • Hong-Jik Kim;Won-Bog Lee;Seung-Ho Lee
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.116-121
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we develop a deep learning structure for a complex microbial incubator that applies deep learning prediction result information. The proposed complex microbial incubator consists of pre-processing of complex microbial data, conversion of complex microbial data structure, design of deep learning network, learning of the designed deep learning network, and GUI development applied to the prototype. In the complex microbial data preprocessing, one-hot encoding is performed on the amount of molasses, nutrients, plant extract, salt, etc. required for microbial culture, and the maximum-minimum normalization method for the pH concentration measured as a result of the culture and the number of microbial cells to preprocess the data. In the complex microbial data structure conversion, the preprocessed data is converted into a graph structure by connecting the water temperature and the number of microbial cells, and then expressed as an adjacency matrix and attribute information to be used as input data for a deep learning network. In deep learning network design, complex microbial data is learned by designing a graph convolutional network specialized for graph structures. The designed deep learning network uses a cosine loss function to proceed with learning in the direction of minimizing the error that occurs during learning. GUI development applied to the prototype shows the target pH concentration (3.8 or less) and the number of cells (108 or more) of complex microorganisms in an order suitable for culturing according to the water temperature selected by the user. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed microbial incubator, the results of experiments conducted by authorized testing institutes showed that the average pH was 3.7 and the number of cells of complex microorganisms was 1.7 × 108. Therefore, the effectiveness of the deep learning structure for the complex microbial incubator applying the deep learning prediction result information proposed in this paper was proven.

An Analytical Study on the Seismic Behavior and Safety of Vertical Hydrogen Storage Vessels Under the Earthquakes (지진 시 수직형 수소 저장용기의 거동 특성 분석 및 안전성에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Sang-Moon Lee;Young-Jun Bae;Woo-Young Jung
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.152-161
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    • 2023
  • In general, large-capacity hydrogen storage vessels, typically in the form of vertical cylindrical vessels, are constructed using steel materials. These vessels are anchored to foundation slabs that are specially designed to suit the environmental conditions. This anchoring method involves pre-installed anchors on top of the concrete foundation slab. However, it's important to note that such a design can result in concentrated stresses at the anchoring points when external forces, such as seismic events, are at play. This may lead to potential structural damage due to anchor and concrete damage. For this reason, in this study, it selected an vertical hydrogen storage vessel based on site observations and created a 3D finite element model. Artificial seismic motions made following the procedures specified in ICC-ES AC 156, as well as domestic recorded earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.0, were applied to analyze the structural behavior and performance of the target structures. Conducting experiments on a structure built to actual scale would be ideal, but due to practical constraints, it proved challenging to execute. Therefore, it opted for an analytical approach to assess the safety of the target structure. Regarding the structural response characteristics, the acceleration induced by seismic motion was observed to amplify by approximately ten times compared to the input seismic motions. Additionally, there was a tendency for a decrease in amplification as the response acceleration was transmitted to the point where the centre of gravity is located. For the vulnerable components, specifically the sub-system (support columns and anchorages), the stress levels were found to satisfy the allowable stress criteria. However, the concrete's tensile strength exhibited only about a 5% margin of safety compared to the allowable stress. This indicates the need for mitigation strategies in addressing these concerns. Based on the research findings presented in this paper, it is anticipated that predictable load information for the design of storage vessels required for future shaking table tests will be provided.

Assessing the Damage: An Exploratory Examination of Electronic Word of Mouth (손해평고(损害评估): 대전자구비행소적탐색성고찰(对电子口碑行销的探索性考察))

  • Funches, Venessa Martin;Foxx, William;Park, Eun-Joo;Kim, Eun-Young
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.188-198
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    • 2010
  • This study attempts to examine the influence that negative WOM (NWOM) has in an online context. It specifically focuses on the impact of the service failure description and the perceived intention of the communication provider on consumer evaluations of firm competence, attitude toward the firm, positive word of mouth and behavioral intentions. Studies of communication persuasiveness focus on "who says what; to whom; in which channel; with what effect (Chiu 2007)." In this research study, we examine electronic web posting, particularly focusing on two aspects of "what": the level of service failure communicated and perceived intention of the individual posting. It stands to reason electronic NWOM that appears to be trying to damage a product’s or firm's reputation will be viewed as more biased and will thus be considered as less credible. According to attribution theory, people search for the causes of events especially those that are negative and unexpected (Weiner 2006). Hennig-Thurau and Walsh (2003) state "since the reader has only limited knowledge and trust of the author of an online articulation the quality of the contribution could be expected to serve as a potent moderator of the articulation-behavior relationship. We therefore posit the following hypotheses: H1. Subjects exposed to electronic NWOM describing a high level of service failure will provide lower scores on measures of (a) firm competence, (b) attitude toward the firm, (c) positive word of mouth, and (d) behavioral intention than will subjects exposed to electronic NWOM describing a low level of service failure. H2. Subjects exposed to electronic NWOM with a warning intent will provide lower scores on measures of (a) firm competence, (b) attitude toward the firm, (c) positive word of mouth, and (d) behavioral intention than will subjects exposed to electronic NWOM with a vengeful intent. H3. Level of service failure in electronic NWOM will interact with the perceived intention of the electronic NWOM, such that there will be a decrease in mean response on measures of (a) firm competence, (b) attitude toward the firm, (c) positive word of mouth, and (d) behavioral intention from electronic NWOM with a warning intent to a vengeful intent. The main study involved a2 (service failure severity) x2 (NWOM with warning versus vengeful intent) factorial experiment. Stimuli were presented to subjects online using a mock online web posting. The scenario described a service failure associated with non-acceptance of a gift card in a brick-and-mortar retail establishment. A national sample was recruited through an online research firm. A total of 113 subjects participated in the study. A total of 104 surveys were analyzed. The scenario was perceived to be realistic with 92.3% giving the scenario a greater than average response. Manipulations were satisfactory. Measures were pre-tested and validated. Items were analyzed and found reliable and valid. MANOVA results found the multivariate interaction was not significant, allowing our interpretation to proceed to the main effects. Significant main effects were found for post intent and service failure severity. The post intent main effect was attributable to attitude toward the firm, positive word of mouth and behavioral intention. The service failure severity main effect was attributable to all four dependent variables: firm competence, attitude toward the firm, positive word of mouth and behavioral intention. Specifically, firm competence for electronic NWOM describing high severity of service failure was lower than electronic NWOM describing low severity of service failure. Attitude toward the firm for electronic NWOM describing high severity of service failure was lower than electronic NWOM describing low severity of service failure. Positive word of mouth for electronic NWOM describing high severity of service failure was lower than electronic NWOM describing low severity of service failure. Behavioral intention for electronic NWOM describing high severity of service failure was lower for electronic NWOM describing low severity of service failure. Therefore, H1a, H1b, H1c and H1d were all supported. In addition, attitude toward the firm for electronic NWOM with a warning intent was lower than electronic NWOM with a vengeful intent. Positive word of mouth for electronic NWOM with a warning intent was lower than electronic NWOM with a vengeful intent. Behavioral intention for electronic NWOM with a warning intent was lower than electronic NWOM with a vengeful intent. Thus, H2b, H2c and H2d were supported. However, H2a was not supported though results were in the hypothesized direction. Otherwise, there was no significant multivariate service failure severity by post intent interaction, nor was there a significant univariate service failure severity by post intent interaction for any of the three hypothesized variables. Thus, H3 was not supported for any of the four hypothesized variables. This study has research and managerial implications. The findings of this study support prior research that service failure severity impacts consumer perceptions, attitude, positive word of mouth and behavioral intentions (Weun et al. 2004). Of further relevance, this response is evidenced in the online context, suggesting the need for firms to engage in serious focused service recovery efforts. With respect to perceived intention of electronic NWOM, the findings support prior research suggesting reader's attributions of the intentions of a source influence the strength of its impact on perceptions, attitude, positive word of mouth and behavioral intentions. The implication for managers suggests while consumers do find online communications to be credible and influential, not all communications are weighted the same. A benefit of electronic WOM, even when it may be potentially damaging, is it can be monitored for potential problems and additionally offers the possibility of redress.

Experimental Study for Confirmation of Relaxation Zone in the Underground Cavity Expansion (지중 내 공동 확장에 따른 이완영역 확인을 위한 실험적 연구)

  • Kim, Youngho;Kim, Hoyeon;Kim, Yeonsam;You, Seung-Kyong;Han, Jung-Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.231-240
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    • 2017
  • Recently, there have been frequent occurrences of ground sink in the urban area, which have resulted in human and material damage and are accompanied by economic losses. This is caused by artificial factors such as soil loss, poor compaction, horizontal excavation due to the breakage of the aged sewage pipe, and lack of water proof at vertical excavation. The ground sink can be prevented by preliminary restoration and reinforcement through exploration, but it can be considered that it is not suitable for urgent restoration by the existing method. In this study, a model experiment was carried out to simulate the in-ground cavities caused by groundwater flow for developing non-excavation urgent restoration in underground cavity and the range of the relaxation zone was estimated by detecting the around the cavity using a relaxation zone detector. In addition, disturbance region and relaxation region were separated by injecting gypsum into cavity formed in simulated ground. The shape of the underground cavity due to the groundwater flow was similar to that of the failure mode III formed in the dense relative density ground due to water pipe breakage in the previous study. It was confirmed that the relaxed region detected using the relaxation zone detector is formed in an arch shape in the cavity top. The length ratio of the relaxation region to the disturbance region in the upper part of the cavity center is 2: 1, and it can be distinguished by the difference in the decrease of the shear resistance against the external force. In other words, it was confirmed that the secondary damage should not occur in consideration of the expandability of the material used as the injecting material in the pre-repair and reinforcement, and various ground deformation states will be additionally performed through additional experiments.

Analyzing the Characteristics of Pre-service Elementary School Teachers' Modeling and Epistemic Criteria with the Blackbox Simulation Program (블랙박스 시뮬레이션에 참여한 초등예비교사의 모형 구성의 특징과 인식적 기준)

  • Park, Jeongwoo;Lee, Sun-Kyung;Shim, Han Su;Lee, Gyeong-Geon;Shin, Myeong-Kyeong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.305-317
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we investigated the characteristics of participant students' modeling with the blackbox simulation program and epistemic criteria. For this research, we developed a blackbox simulation program, which is an ill-structured problem situation reflecting the scientific practice. This simulation program is applied in the activities. 23 groups, 89 second year students of an education college participated in this activity. They visualized, modeled, modified, and evaluated their thoughts on internal structure in the blackbox. All of students' activities were recorded and analyzed. As a result, the students' models in blackbox activities were categorized into four types considering their form and function. Model evaluation occurred in group model selection. Epistemic criteria such as empirical coherence, comprehensiveness, analogy, simplicity, and implementation were adapted in model evaluation. The educational implications discussed above are as follows: First, the blackbox simulation activities in which the students participated in this study have educational implications in that they provide a context in which the nature of scientific practice can be experienced explicitly and implicitly by constructing and testing models. Second, from the beginning of the activity, epistemic criteria such as empirical coherence, comprehensiveness, analogy, simplicity, and implementation were not strictly adapted and dynamically flexibly adapted according to the context. Third, the study of epistemic criteria in various contexts as well as in the context of this study will broaden the horizon of understanding the nature of scientific practice. Simulation activity, which is the context of this study, can lead to research related to computational thinking that will be more important in future society. We expect to be able to lead more discussions by furthering this study by elaborating and systematizing its context and method.

Effects of Alcohol on Psychomotor Performance and Subjective Assessments In Normal Adults with Variation of Acetaldehyde Dehydrogenase I (정상성인에서 ALDH-I의 변이가 알콜의 정신운동성 수행과 주관적 평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoon, Bo Hyun;Yoon, Jin Sang
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.222-239
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of alcohol on the psychomotor performance and subjective assessment in healthy Korean adults with acetaldehyde dehydrogenase I(ALDH-I) isozyme variance. A total of 20 male subjects, half with active ALDH-I and the other half with inactive ALDH-I, were selected through both a self-reporting questionnaire examining alcohol sensitivity and the Higuchi's ethanol patch test detecting ALDH-I deficiency. In a doule-blind, placebo-controlled cross-over design, each subject consumed four doses of alcohol(0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0g/kg) and placebo on five separate occasions at weekly intervals, Treatment order was fully balanced using a $5{\times}5$ Latin square, Psychomotor performance tests[coritical flicker fusion threshold(CFF) and choice reaction time(CRT)] and self-estimate questionnaires were conducted at baseline and at time points of 20, 40, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180 minutes after consuming the test drug for 20 minutes, Blood alcohol concentrations(BACs) using breath analyzer were measured at baseline and at time points of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120, 150, 180 minutes after drinking, The BACs and the mean changes in the psychomotor performances and subjective assessments from pre-alcohol baseline, were compared between the two groups. The findings were summarized as follows : 1) BACs were tended to be higher in the inactive group than the active in all of the four alcohol doses. However significant group differences were only after the 0.5g/kg dose of alcohol. 2) The inactive group showed significant impairment in CFFT at most time points alter 0.75 and 1.0g/kg doses of alcohol. 3) In CRT, total reaction time(TRT) significantly prolonged in the inactive group than the active group at 20 minutes after 0.25 and 1.0g/kg doses of alcohol and at 40, 60, 90 minutes alter 0.75g/kg dose of alcohol. In the inactive group, recognition time component significantly increased at 20, 60, 90 minutes after 1.0g/kg dose of alcohol, while movement time component significantly increased at 40, 60 minutes after 0.75g/kg dose of alcohol. 4) Subjective evaluation of the effect of alcohol revealed that physical and mental conditions as well as a self-estimate of the effects of alcohol on performance were significantly worse in the inactive group than the active at some time points alter all of the lour alcohol doses, wihch were more pronounced after 0.75 and 1.0g/kg doses of alcohol. 5) Most of the group differences mentioned above, still remained statistically significant after BAC was entered as a covariate, These findings demonstrated that the alcohol sensitivity is higher in individuals with inactive ALDH-I than those with active ALDH-I both on the subjective assessments and the objective psychomotor performances. Furthermore, these results suggest thai the alcohol sensitivity may be determined by acetaldehyde concentration rather than BAC per se. In future studies, after more accurate genotyping for ALDH-I, the relationships between BAC, acetaldehyde concentration and alcohol sensitivities should be clearly defined.

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Using the METHONTOLOGY Approach to a Graduation Screen Ontology Development: An Experiential Investigation of the METHONTOLOGY Framework

  • Park, Jin-Soo;Sung, Ki-Moon;Moon, Se-Won
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.125-155
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    • 2010
  • Ontologies have been adopted in various business and scientific communities as a key component of the Semantic Web. Despite the increasing importance of ontologies, ontology developers still perceive construction tasks as a challenge. A clearly defined and well-structured methodology can reduce the time required to develop an ontology and increase the probability of success of a project. However, no reliable knowledge-engineering methodology for ontology development currently exists; every methodology has been tailored toward the development of a particular ontology. In this study, we developed a Graduation Screen Ontology (GSO). The graduation screen domain was chosen for the several reasons. First, the graduation screen process is a complicated task requiring a complex reasoning process. Second, GSO may be reused for other universities because the graduation screen process is similar for most universities. Finally, GSO can be built within a given period because the size of the selected domain is reasonable. No standard ontology development methodology exists; thus, one of the existing ontology development methodologies had to be chosen. The most important considerations for selecting the ontology development methodology of GSO included whether it can be applied to a new domain; whether it covers a broader set of development tasks; and whether it gives sufficient explanation of each development task. We evaluated various ontology development methodologies based on the evaluation framework proposed by G$\acute{o}$mez-P$\acute{e}$rez et al. We concluded that METHONTOLOGY was the most applicable to the building of GSO for this study. METHONTOLOGY was derived from the experience of developing Chemical Ontology at the Polytechnic University of Madrid by Fern$\acute{a}$ndez-L$\acute{o}$pez et al. and is regarded as the most mature ontology development methodology. METHONTOLOGY describes a very detailed approach for building an ontology under a centralized development environment at the conceptual level. This methodology consists of three broad processes, with each process containing specific sub-processes: management (scheduling, control, and quality assurance); development (specification, conceptualization, formalization, implementation, and maintenance); and support process (knowledge acquisition, evaluation, documentation, configuration management, and integration). An ontology development language and ontology development tool for GSO construction also had to be selected. We adopted OWL-DL as the ontology development language. OWL was selected because of its computational quality of consistency in checking and classification, which is crucial in developing coherent and useful ontological models for very complex domains. In addition, Protege-OWL was chosen for an ontology development tool because it is supported by METHONTOLOGY and is widely used because of its platform-independent characteristics. Based on the GSO development experience of the researchers, some issues relating to the METHONTOLOGY, OWL-DL, and Prot$\acute{e}$g$\acute{e}$-OWL were identified. We focused on presenting drawbacks of METHONTOLOGY and discussing how each weakness could be addressed. First, METHONTOLOGY insists that domain experts who do not have ontology construction experience can easily build ontologies. However, it is still difficult for these domain experts to develop a sophisticated ontology, especially if they have insufficient background knowledge related to the ontology. Second, METHONTOLOGY does not include a development stage called the "feasibility study." This pre-development stage helps developers ensure not only that a planned ontology is necessary and sufficiently valuable to begin an ontology building project, but also to determine whether the project will be successful. Third, METHONTOLOGY excludes an explanation on the use and integration of existing ontologies. If an additional stage for considering reuse is introduced, developers might share benefits of reuse. Fourth, METHONTOLOGY fails to address the importance of collaboration. This methodology needs to explain the allocation of specific tasks to different developer groups, and how to combine these tasks once specific given jobs are completed. Fifth, METHONTOLOGY fails to suggest the methods and techniques applied in the conceptualization stage sufficiently. Introducing methods of concept extraction from multiple informal sources or methods of identifying relations may enhance the quality of ontologies. Sixth, METHONTOLOGY does not provide an evaluation process to confirm whether WebODE perfectly transforms a conceptual ontology into a formal ontology. It also does not guarantee whether the outcomes of the conceptualization stage are completely reflected in the implementation stage. Seventh, METHONTOLOGY needs to add criteria for user evaluation of the actual use of the constructed ontology under user environments. Eighth, although METHONTOLOGY allows continual knowledge acquisition while working on the ontology development process, consistent updates can be difficult for developers. Ninth, METHONTOLOGY demands that developers complete various documents during the conceptualization stage; thus, it can be considered a heavy methodology. Adopting an agile methodology will result in reinforcing active communication among developers and reducing the burden of documentation completion. Finally, this study concludes with contributions and practical implications. No previous research has addressed issues related to METHONTOLOGY from empirical experiences; this study is an initial attempt. In addition, several lessons learned from the development experience are discussed. This study also affords some insights for ontology methodology researchers who want to design a more advanced ontology development methodology.

An Effect of the Self-Regulation Program for Hypertensives -Synthesis & testing of Orem and Bandura's theory- (본태성 고혈압 환자의 자가간호증진을 위한 자기조절 프로그램 효과 -Orem이론과 Bandura이론의 합성과 검증-)

  • Park, Young-Im;Hong, Yeo-Shin
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.109-129
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    • 1994
  • Chronic health problems has become a major concern and challenge to the health care professionals today. Especially hypertension, one of the leading primary cause of death in Korea, is a typical chronic disease requiring adequate and continuous management. Though these hypertensives need to maintain desirable health practice by themselves for their life time, many previous studies indicated that most of the essential hypertensives have no specific symptoms and thus, reluctant to follow appropriate medical regimens causing the condition further aggravated and complicated. Self-care is an essential factor that keeps chronic patients in control of their health and wellness. Thus this study was conducted to identify the effect of the comprehensive self-regulation program as a nursing intervention on the promotion self-care performance and improvement in physical parameters of hypertensives. For this purpose, a one group quasi-experimental research with pre and post test design was used. The subjects of the study was consisted of thirty persons with mild or moderate essential hypertension from two companies in Cheong-ju city. The whole program was carried out from October, 1993 to February, 1994. The self-regulation program was consisted with group education on hypertension and self-care, self-regulation including the blood pressure self-monitoring and recording, recording of daily self-care activities, and encouraging and reinforcing self-efficacy through verbal persuation and enactive attainment. The subjects were asked to measure their own blood pressure by themselves twice per day and to record blood pressure and the daily self-care performance according to the instructions provided during the whole period of 9 weeks. The instruments used for data collection in this study were as follows : 1) Instruments used for measuring the knowledge about hypertension, multiple health locus of control, and perceived benifits and barriers were adapted from previous studies and modified by author to be fit for the subjects. 2) Self-efficacy scale and self-care performance record were developed by the author. 3) Physiological parameters included systolic / diastolic blood pressure, body weight, level of blood cholesterol, and 24hour ambulatory blood pressure. The post-experimental Cronbach's Alpha as the reliability test of scales were 0.703-0.897, an appropriate level of confidence. The effect of the program was analyzed by experimental stages ; the first week, the fifth week, and the ninth week since the experimental imput began. Data were analyzed by the SPSS PC+ program with paired t-test and t-test, repeated measure ANOVA, and pearson's correlation to de termine the effect of program. The results were as follows : 1) After the self-regulation program, scores on knowledge(t=-2.41, p=.011), perceived self-efficacy (F=5.60, p=.001), self-care performance(F=22.31, p=.0001) were significantly higher than those before the program. 2) After the program, both systolic and diastolic blood pressure were significantly lower than those before the program(F=10.89 -13.11, p=.0001). However in 24hour ambulatory blood pressure, systolic mean pressure was nearly significantly lower, but not in diastolic mean pressure. 3) After the program, the body weight was significant decresed(t=5.53, p=.0001), but the blood cholesterol level was not decreased significantly except in those cases with higher cholesterol level. 4) There were significant relationships between changes in self-care performance and diastolic pressure at 1st week (r=.3389, p=.033) and changes in self-care performance and systolic pressure at 9th week(r=.3651, p=.024). 5) There were significant relationship between perceived self-efficacy and self-care performance at 5th week(r=.5313, p=.001) and 9th week (r=.3026, p=.052). 6) After the program, internal health locus of control and perceived benefits did not show significant change, but perceived barriers was significantly lower than those before the program (t=3.57, p=.0001). From the above results, it can be concluded that 1) The self-regulation program is an effective nursing strategy to promote self-care performance of hypertensives and to lower the blood pressure. Thus this program can be recommended in the management of the hypertensives in workplaces and community settings. 2) The synthesis of Orem's self-care theory and Bandura's self-regulation & self-efficacy theory in this study was proved to enhance explanation and prediction of the change of self-care behavior. Thus the result of the study would contribute in development of the self-care theory and an expansion of practice-theory.

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Development of Market Growth Pattern Map Based on Growth Model and Self-organizing Map Algorithm: Focusing on ICT products (자기조직화 지도를 활용한 성장모형 기반의 시장 성장패턴 지도 구축: ICT제품을 중심으로)

  • Park, Do-Hyung;Chung, Jaekwon;Chung, Yeo Jin;Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2014
  • Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

Development and Application of Scientific Inquiry-based STEAM Education Program for Free-Learning Semester in Middle School (중학교 자유학기제에 적합한 과학 탐구 중심의 융합인재교육 프로그램 개발 및 적용)

  • Jeong, Hyeondo;Lee, Hyonyong
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.334-350
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    • 2017
  • The purposes of this study are to develop scientific-inquiry based on STEAM education program and to investigate the effects of the program on middle-school students' interests, self-efficacy, and career choice about science, technology/engineering, and mathematics. In order to develop this program, the literature investigation and previous studies were conducted, so that finally the developmental direction was based on scientific inquiry and the developmental theme and model were selected. A total 92 first-graders in G middle-school of Daegu city were participated in this study. A single group pre-post test paired t-test was conducted to figure out changes of students' interest, self-efficacy, and career choices before or after applying this program. In addition, in-depth interviews were conducted with 14 students to find their specific responses. The results of this study were as follows. First, STEAM education program on the theme of 'RC Airplane' was developed on the basis of the 'ADBA' model. Second, the developed STEAM educational program not only results a decisive difference statistically but also has significant effects on middle-school students' interests, self-efficacy, and career choice in science, technology/engineering, and mathematics, who are involved in the free-semester program, across the overall affective domain. In conclusion, the STEAM educational program in this study could affect significant meanings to middle-school students during the free-semester. It could contribute to facilitate middle-school students' education for happiness and to grow the creative STEAM talents.