• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.705-713
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• 2021

케이지 조립체는 발사대의 사격 플랫폼 역할을 하므로 목표물에 대한 사격 정확성을 확보하기 위한 정확한 조준이 필수적이다. 그러나 천무 발사대의 방향성 오류로 인한 케이지의 비정상적인 회전으로 장비에 대한 품질 문제가 지속적으로 발생하였다. 이러한 무기체계의 품질문제는 우리 군의 전력 손실에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 현재 운용중인 천무 발사대 케이지의 방향성 오류 현상을 대상으로 결함 고찰 및 원인분석을 수행하여, 개선방안을 도출하였다. 또한 케이지 방향 결정 신호 흐름 구성 분석을 통해 방향성 오류 발생이 가능한 예상 원인을 모두 도출하여 소프트웨어 방어 설계를 통해 방향성 상실 문제를 완전 차단하고자 하였다. 본 연구를 통해 데이터의 불특정한 신호를 방지하여 레졸버의 신호오류를 개선하였다. 또한 데이터의 왜곡을 최소화하기 위하여, 방향성 판단방식을 개선하였다. 마지막으로 케이지 회전방향에 대한 데이터가 저장오류나 통신오류로부터 영향을 받지 않도록 방향성 저장공간과 확인방식을 개선하였다. 개선사항에 대한 신뢰성은 체계 적용성 검증을 수행하여 입증되었다. 본 연구는 향후 유사무기체계에 대한 고장분석 및 설계에 참고자료가 될 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.277-286
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• 2021

Background: As trade increases, the influx of various alien species and their spread to new regions are prevalent and no longer a special problem. Anthropogenic activities and climate changes have made the distribution of alien species out of their native range common. As a result, alien species can be easily found anywhere, and they have nothing but only a few differences in intensity. The prevalent distribution of alien species adversely affects the ecosystem, and a strategic management plan must be established to control them effectively. To this end, hot spots and cold spots were analyzed according to the degree of distribution of invasive alien plants, and major environmental factors related to hot spots were found. We analyzed the 10,287 distribution points of 126 species of alien plants collected through the national survey of alien species by the hierarchical model of species communities (HMSC) framework. Results: The explanatory and fourfold cross-validation predictive power of the model were 0.91 and 0.75 as AUC values, respectively. The hot spots of invasive plants were found in the Seoul metropolitan area, Daegu metropolitan city, Chungcheongbuk-do Province, southwest shore, and Jeju island. Generally, the hot spots were found where the higher maximum temperature of summer, precipitation of winter, and road density are observed, but temperature seasonality, annual temperature range, precipitation of the summer, and distance to river and sea were negatively related to the hot spots. According to the model, the functional traits accounted for 55% of the variance explained by the environmental factors. The species with higher specific leaf areas were more found where temperature seasonality was low. Taller species preferred the bigger annual temperature range. The heavier seed mass was only preferred when the max temperature of summer exceeded 29 ℃. Conclusions: In this study, hot spots were places where 2.1 times more alien plants were distributed on average than non-hot spots (33.5 vs 15.7 species). The hot spots of invasive plants were expected to appear in less stressful climate conditions, such as low fluctuation of temperature and precipitation. Also, the disturbance by anthropogenic factors or water flow had positive influences on the hot spots. These results were consistent with the previous reports about the ruderal or competitive strategies of invasive plants instead of the stress-tolerant strategy. The functional traits are closely related to the ecological strategies of plants by shaping the response of species to various environmental filters, and our result confirmed this. Therefore, in order to effectively control alien plants, it is judged that the occurrence of disturbed sites in which alien plants can grow in large quantities is minimized, and the river management of waterfronts is required.

• 한국해양환경ㆍ에너지학회지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.202-210
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• 2013

최근 소득증대로 인해 해양레저에 대한 관심이 높아짐에 따라 해양레저용으로 많이 이용되는 활주형선의 선형설계와 생산에 대한 많은 연구 개발이 필요해지고 있다. 지금까지 수행된 활주형선의 저항에 대한 연구를 분석해본 결과 활주형선은 속도가 빠르고 침수표면적이 매우 작기 때문에 일반 선박과는 다른 저항 특성을 가지고 있음을 알게 되었다. 본 연구는 현재 조선소와 추진기 및 엔진 생산업체에서 유효마력 산정에 널리 활용되는 Savitsky공식을 이용하여 연구대상 활주형선의 전저항을 먼저 계산한 후 이론해석과 풍동실험을 통하여 활주형선 주위에 대한 유동특성을 분석하고 속도와 트림각도 변화에 따른 공기저항, 양력 등을 구하였다. 또한 이 결과를 이용하여 전저항에 대한 공기저항의 비율을 속도와 트림각 변화에 대하여 이론해석결과와 실험결과를 비교하고 분석하였으며 본 연구결과는 좀 더 정확한 유효마력 추정에 활용되어 산출근거를 무시하고 막연하게 고마력 엔진을 장착하는 폐단을 막을 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 한편 기상 이변으로 인한 자연재해가 증가하면서 온실가스에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 국제해사기구(IMO)에서는 선박의 설계 단계에서 적용되는 에너지 효율 지수(EEDI)와 해상을 운항할 때 적용되는 에너지 효율지수(EEOI)를 제정하여 선박으로부터 배출되는 온실가스를 줄이려 하고 있다. 그러나 이 규정은 총톤수(GT) 400톤 이상의 선박에 적용될 예정이므로 해양레저용 선박과 같은 소형 선박은 대형 선박에 비해 단위 출력 당 온실가스 배출량은 오히려 많지만 이 IMO 규정에 의한 규제를 받지 않는다. 따라서 본 연구는 소형선박인 해양레저용 활주형선의 온실 가스 배출량을 산출함으로써 이에 대한 문제점을 제기하고 소형선박에 적용될 수 EEDI 계산법 제정의 필요성을 제시하였다.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.1-32
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• 2018

본 연구는 경제적으로 국내에 큰 영향을 주었던 글로벌 금융위기를 기반으로 총 10년의 연간 기업데이터를 이용한다. 먼저 시대 변화 흐름에 일관성있는 부도 모형을 구축하는 것을 목표로 금융위기 이전(2000~2006년)의 데이터를 학습한다. 이후 매개 변수 튜닝을 통해 금융위기 기간이 포함(2007~2008년)된 유효성 검증 데이터가 학습데이터의 결과와 비슷한 양상을 보이고, 우수한 예측력을 가지도록 조정한다. 이후 학습 및 유효성 검증 데이터를 통합(2000~2008년)하여 유효성 검증 때와 같은 매개변수를 적용하여 모형을 재구축하고, 결과적으로 최종 학습된 모형을 기반으로 시험 데이터(2009년) 결과를 바탕으로 딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 기반의 기업부도예측 모형이 유용함을 검증한다. 부도에 대한 정의는 Lee(2015) 연구와 동일하게 기업의 상장폐지 사유들 중 실적이 부진했던 경우를 부도로 선정한다. 독립변수의 경우, 기존 선행연구에서 이용되었던 재무비율 변수를 비롯한 기타 재무정보를 포함한다. 이후 최적의 변수군을 선별하는 방식으로 다변량 판별분석, 로짓 모형, 그리고 Lasso 회귀분석 모형을 이용한다. 기업부도예측 모형 방법론으로는 Altman(1968)이 제시했던 다중판별분석 모형, Ohlson(1980)이 제시한 로짓모형, 그리고 비시계열 기계학습 기반 부도예측모형과 딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘을 이용한다. 기업 데이터의 경우, '비선형적인 변수들', 변수들의 '다중 공선성 문제', 그리고 '데이터 수 부족'이란 한계점이 존재한다. 이에 로짓 모형은 '비선형성'을, Lasso 회귀분석 모형은 '다중 공선성 문제'를 해결하고, 가변적인 데이터 생성 방식을 이용하는 딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘을 접목함으로서 데이터 수가 부족한 점을 보완하여 연구를 진행한다. 현 정부를 비롯한 해외 정부에서는 4차 산업혁명을 통해 국가 및 사회의 시스템, 일상생활 전반을 아우르기 위해 힘쓰고 있다. 즉, 현재는 다양한 산업에 이르러 빅데이터를 이용한 딥러닝 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있지만, 금융 산업을 위한 연구분야는 아직도 미비하다. 따라서 이 연구는 기업 부도에 관하여 딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 분석을 진행한 초기 논문으로서, 금융 데이터와 딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘을 접목한 연구를 시작하는 비 전공자에게 비교분석 자료로 쓰이기를 바란다.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.25-38
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• 2019

정보화 시대의 넘쳐나는 콘텐츠들 속에서 사용자의 관심과 요구에 맞는 양질의 정보를 선별해내는 과정은 세대를 거듭할수록 더욱 중요해지고 있다. 정보의 홍수 속에서 사용자의 정보 요구를 단순한 문자열로 인식하지 않고, 의미적으로 파악하여 검색결과에 사용자 의도를 더 정확하게 반영하고자 하는 노력이 이루어지고 있다. 구글이나 마이크로소프트와 같은 대형 IT 기업들도 시멘틱 기술을 기반으로 사용자에게 만족도와 편의성을 제공하는 검색엔진 및 지식기반기술의 개발에 집중하고 있다. 특히 금융 분야는 끊임없이 방대한 새로운 정보가 발생하며 초기의 정보일수록 큰 가치를 지녀 텍스트 데이터 분석과 관련된 연구의 효용성과 발전 가능성이 기대되는 분야 중 하나이다. 따라서, 본 연구는 주식 관련 정보검색의 시멘틱 성능을 향상시키기 위해 주식 개별종목을 대상으로 뉴럴 텐서 네트워크를 활용한 지식 개체명 추출과 이에 대한 성능평가를 시도하고자 한다. 뉴럴 텐서 네트워크 관련 기존 주요 연구들이 추론을 통해 지식 개체명들 사이의 관계 탐색을 주로 목표로 하였다면, 본 연구는 주식 개별종목과 관련이 있는 지식 개체명 자체의 추출을 주목적으로 한다. 기존 관련 연구의 문제점들을 해결하고 모형의 실효성과 현실성을 높이기 위한 다양한 데이터 처리 방법이 모형설계 과정에서 적용되며, 객관적인 성능 평가를 위한 실증 분석 결과와 분석 내용을 제시한다. 2017년 5월 30일부터 2018년 5월 21일 사이에 발생한 전문가 리포트를 대상으로 실증 분석을 진행한 결과, 제시된 모형을 통해 추출된 개체명들은 개별종목이 이름을 약 69% 정확도로 예측하였다. 이러한 결과는 본 연구에서 제시하는 모형의 활용 가능성을 보여주고 있으며, 후속 연구와 모형 개선을 통한 성과의 제고가 가능하다는 것을 의미한다. 마지막으로 종목명 예측 테스트를 통해 본 연구에서 제시한 학습 방법이 새로운 텍스트 정보를 의미적으로 접근하여 관련주식 종목과 매칭시키는 목적으로 사용될 수 있는 가능성을 확인하였다.

• 동의생리병리학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.1-24
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• 2003

This study was done to compile 104 experimental theses which are related to the antitumor and immuno-activating therapies between February 1990 through February 2002. Master's and doctoral theses were dassified by schools, degrees, materials, effects, experimental methods of antitumor and immunoactivity, and results. The following results were obtained from this study : 1. Classifying the theses by the school, 34.6% were presented by Daejeon University, 29.8% by Kyung-hee University and 11.5% by Won-kwang University. Of all theses, 51.0% were aimed for the doctoral degree and 43.3% were for the master's degree. All of three universities have their own cancer centers. 2. Classifying the theses by herb materials, complex prescription accounted for 60.3%, single herb accounted for 24.8% and herbal acupuncture accounted for 14.2%. Considering the key principles of the traditional medicine, complex prescription was much more thoroughly studied than single herb prescription. The results showed that the complex prescription had both antitumor activity and immuno-activating activity, which might reflects on multi-activation mechanisms by complex components. 3. Classifying the theses by the efficacy of herbs examined, in single herb, invigorating spleen and supplementing was 35.5%, expelling toxin and cooling was 29.0%, activating blood flow and removing blood stasis was 12.9%. In herbal acupuncture, invigorating spleen and supplementing was 52.9%, expelling toxin and cooling was 29.4%. In complex prescription, pathogen-free status was 41.9%, strengthening healthy qi to eliminate pathogen was 35.5%, strengthening healthy qi was 22.6%. It is presumed that the antitumor and immunoactivating therapy based on syndrome differentiation is the best way to develop oriental oncology. 4. Classifying the theses by antitumor experiments, cytotoxic effect was 48.1 %, survival time was 48.1 % and change of tumor size was 42.3%. Survival rate was not necessarily correlated with cytotoxicity. These data reflect the characteristic, wholistic nature of the oriental medicine which is based on BRM (biological response modifier). 5. Classifying the theses by immunoactivating experiments, hemolysin titer was 51.0%, hemagglutinin titer was 46.2% and NK cell's activity was 44.2%. In the future studies, an effort to elucidate specific molecular and cellular mechanisms of cytokine production in the body would be crucial. 6. Classifying the theses according to the data in terms of antitumor activity, 50% was evaluated good, 24.0% was excellent, and 15.5% have no effect. In an evaluation of immuno-activating activity, 35.9% was excellent and 18.0% showed a little effect. The index point, as described here, may helps to use experimental data for clinical trials. Changes in index points by varying dosage implicate the importance of oriental medical theory for prescription. 7. In 167 materials, IIP (immunoactivating index point, mean : 3.12±0.07) was significantly higher than AIP(antitumor index point, mean : 2.83±0.07). These data demonstrate that the effect of herb medicine on tumor activity depends more on immunoactivating activity than antitumor activity. This further implies that the development of herbal antitumor drugs must be preceded by the mechanistic understanding of immunoactivating effect. 8. After medline-searching tumor and herb-related articles from NCBI web site, we conclude that most of the studies are primarily focused on biomolecular mechanisms and/or pathways. Henceforth, we need to define the biomolecular mechanisms and/or pathways affected by herbs or complicated prescriptions. 9. Therefore, the most important point of oriental medical oncology is to conned between experimental results and clinical trials. For the public application of herbal therapy to cancer, it is critical to present the data to mass media. 10. To develop the relationship of experimental results and clinical trials, university's cancer clinic must have a long-range plan related to the university laboratories and, at the same time, a regular consortium for this relationship is imperative. 11. After all these efforts, a new type herbal medicine for cancer therapy which is to take care of the long-term administering and safety problem must be developed. Then, it would be expected that anti-tumor herbal acupuncture can improve clinical symptoms and quality of life (QOL) for cancer patients. 12. Finally, oriental medical cancer center must be constructed in NCC (National Cancer Center) or government agency for the development of oriental medical oncology which has international competitive power.

• 감성과학
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.101-112
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• 2018

본 연구는 교통사고 예방과 사후 처리를 위한 차량용 블랙박스 디자인 개발로 블랙박스 시장 성장에 따른 기업의 대내외 블랙박스 디자인 경쟁력을 높이기 위해 진행되었다. 과거 블랙박스 시장은 꾸준히 증가하는 소비자 수요를 맞추기 위해 무분별하게 상품을 양산했었다. 수많은 종류의 차량용 블랙박스는 현재 사후관리, 품질, 디자인 등 소비자 요구를 잘 반영한 제품만이 생존하고 있다. IT 및 사회관계망의 발전으로 정보와 공유, 소비의 사이클이 빨라지면서 소비자의 다양한 요구가 발생하고 있는 상황이다. 따라서 급변하는 소비자의 니즈를 효과적으로 조사할 수 있는 새로운 디자인 방법이 필요하다고 생각한다. 새로운 소비자 니즈 조사방법으로 사례연구 및 전문가의 집단지성 방법론을 활용하여 빠르고 효과적인 소비자 요구를 도출할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 사례 연구에서 베스트셀러 블랙박스를 조사하여 디자인의 흐름을 파악하고, 차량에 장착되는 제품이라는 특수성을 고려하여 블랙박스 최적의 거치 구간을 조사했다. 이후, 블랙박스 디자인 전문가 집단의 담론을 통해 디자인의 지향점을 찾고, 블랙박스를 사용하면서 발생한 문제점을 논의하는 과정과 소비자 요구 조사 과정을 거처 블랙박스 개발에 반영했다. 집단지성 분석을 통해 새로운 거치 방식을 제안한 선도형 블랙박스(A type) 타입과 사전조사 분석을 반영한 양산 개선형 블랙박스(B type) 타입으로 나누어 디자인을 제안했다. 선도형 블랙박스는 차량과 일체형으로 디자인을 구현하고자 접착식 거치 방식이 아닌 룸미러 경첩(hinge)를 감싼 후 나사로 체결하는 구조로 구현하였다. 그 결과 차량과 일체화된 형상을 구현할 수 있었고, 집단지성 분석으로 조사된 문제점인 거치대 접착식 블랙박스의 탈 거 문제를 해결할 수 있었다. 양산 개선형 블랙박스는 사전 트렌드 조사를 통해 도출된 스타일 및 재질을 차량과 같은 방식으로 구현했으며 SD카드 탈거시 본체 전원을 자동으로 끌 수 있도록 슬라이드 구조를 채택하여 소비자 요구를 반영 하였다. 이처럼 본 연구는 트렌드 분석과 집단지성 방법을 통해 진화되는 소비자의 니즈를 발견하고 두 가지 분석에 의해 도출된 블랙박스를 비교할 수 있다. Ideation, Modeling, Rendering, Mock-up을 통해 양산을 구현하는 디자인 전 과정을 다루고 있다. 디자인 방법과 구현을 통해 기업의 블랙박스 디자인 경쟁력 강화에 기여하고자 했다.

• 시큐리티연구
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• 제39호
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• pp.319-353
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• 2014

2001년 9/11 테러공격 이후에 미국은 사이버 안보를 가장 위중한 국가안보 문제로 인식한다. 미국 국방부는 2013년 처음으로 사이버 전쟁이 물리적인 테러보다 더 큰 국가안보 위협임을 확인했다. 단적으로 윌리암 린(William J. Lynn) 국방부 차관의 지적처럼 오늘날 사이버 공간은 육지, 바다, 하늘, 우주 다음의 '제5의 전장(the fifth domain of warfare)'이라고 함에 의문이 없다. 인터넷의 활용과 급속한 보급은 사이버 공간에서의 상상하지 못했던 역기능을 창출한 것이다. 이에 사이버 정보와 사이버 네트워크 보호까지를 포괄하지 않으면 국가안보 수호의 목표를 달성할 수 없게 되었다. 그런데 이러한 위험성에도 불구하고 각국은 운영상의 효율성과 편리성, 국제교류 등 외부세계와의 교류확대를 위해 국가기간망의 네트워크화를 더욱 확대해 가고 있고 인터넷에의 의존도는 심화되고 있다. 하지만 그 실천적인 위험성에도 불구하고 우리의 법제도적 장치와 사이버 안전에 대한 인식수준은 현실을 제대로 반영하지 못하고 있는 것으로 판단된다. 오늘날 가장 실천적이고 현실적인 위협을 제기하는 사이버 안보의 핵심은 하나도 둘도 계획의 구체성과 실천력의 배양이다. 대책회의나 교육 등은 부차적이다. 실전적인 사이버 사령부와 사이버 정보기구 그리고 사이버 전사의 창설과 육성에 더 커다란 노력을 경주해야 하고, 우리의 경우에는 가장 많은 경험을 가지고 인력과 장비를 가진 국가정보원의 사이버 수호 역량을 고양하고 더 많은 책무를 부담시키고 합리적인 업무 감독을 다하는 것에 있다고 할 것이다. 이에 본고는 법규범적으로 치안질서와 별개 개념으로서의 국가안보에 대한 무한책임기구인 국가정보기구의 사이버 안보에 대한 책무와 그에 더하여 필요한 사이버 정보활동과 유관활동의 범위를 검토하고자 한다. 사이버 테러와 사이버 공격을 포괄한 사이버 공격(Cyber Attack)에 대한 이해와 전자기장을 물리적으로 장악하는 전자전에 대한 연구도 포함한다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.237-237
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• 2015

The district of Marlborough has had more than its share of river management projects over the past 150 years, each one uniquely affecting the geomorphology and flood hazard of the Wairau Plains. A major early project was to block the Opawa distributary channel at Conders Bend. The Opawa distributary channel took a third and more of Wairau River floodwaters and was a major increasing threat to Blenheim. The blocking of the Opawa required the Wairau and Lower Wairau rivers to carry greater flood flows more often. Consequently the Lower Wairau River was breaking out of its stopbanks approximately every seven years. The idea of diverting flood waters at Tuamarina by providing a direct diversion to the sea through the beach ridges was conceptualised back around the 1920s however, limits on resources and machinery meant the mission of excavating this diversion didn't become feasible until the 1960s. In 1964 a 10 m wide pilot channel was cut from the sea to Tuamarina with an initial capacity of $700m^3/s$. It was expected that floods would eventually scour this 'Wairau Diversion' to its design channel width of 150 m. This did take many more years than initially thought but after approximately 50 years with a little mechanical assistance the Wairau Diversion reached an adequate capacity. Using the power of the river to erode the channel out to its design width and depth was a brilliant idea that saved many thousands of dollars in construction costs and it is somewhat ironic that it is that very same concept that is now being used to deal with the aggradation problem that the Wairau Diversion has caused. The introduction of the Wairau Diversion did provide some flood relief to the lower reaches of the river but unfortunately as the Diversion channel was eroding and enlarging the Lower Wairau River was aggrading and reducing in capacity due to its inability to pass its sediment load with reduced flood flows. It is estimated that approximately $2,000,000m^3$ of sediment was deposited on the bed of the Lower Wairau River in the time between the Diversion's introduction in 1964 and 2010, raising the Lower Wairau's bed upwards of 1.5m in some locations. A numerical morphological model (MIKE-11 ST) was used to assess a number of options which led to the decision and resource consent to construct an erodible (fuse plug) bank at the head of the Wairau Diversion to divert more frequent scouring-flows ($+400m^3/s$)down the Lower Wairau River. Full control gates were ruled out on the grounds of expense. The initial construction of the erodible bank followed in late 2009 with the bank's level at the fuse location set to overtop and begin washing out at a combined Wairau flow of $1,400m^3/s$ which avoids berm flooding in the Lower Wairau. In the three years since the erodible bank was first constructed the Wairau River has sustained 14 events with recorded flows at Tuamarina above $1,000m^3/s$ and three of events in excess of $2,500m^3/s$. These freshes and floods have resulted in washout and rebuild of the erodible bank eight times with a combined rebuild expenditure of $80,000. Marlborough District Council's Rivers & Drainage Department maintains a regular monitoring program for the bed of the Lower Wairau River, which consists of recurrently surveying a series of standard cross sections and estimating the mean bed level (MBL) at each section as well as an overall MBL change over time. A survey was carried out just prior to the installation of the erodible bank and another survey was carried out earlier this year. The results from this latest survey show for the first time since construction of the Wairau Diversion the Lower Wairau River is enlarging. It is estimated that the entire bed of the Lower Wairau has eroded down by an overall average of 60 mm since the introduction of the erodible bank which equates to a total volume of $260,000m^3$. At a cost of $$0.30/m^3$ this represents excellent value compared to mechanical dredging which would likely be in excess of $$10/m^3$. This confirms that the idea of using the river to enlarge the channel is again working for the Wairau River system and that in time nature's "excavator" will provide a channel capacity that will continue to meet design requirements.

• 안보군사학연구
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• 통권8호
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• pp.49-168
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• 2010

Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.