• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제37권3호
• /
• pp.33-38
• /
• 2009

When we estimate the parameters of software reliability models, we usually use maximum liklihood estimator(MLE). But this method is required a large data set. In particular, when we want to estimate it with small observed data such as early stages of testing, we give rise to the non-existence of MLE. Therefore, it is interesting to look into the influence of parameter estimators obtained using MLE. In this paper, we use two non-homogenous poisson process software reliability growth model: delayed S-shaped model and log power model. In this paper, we calculate the sensitivity of estimators about failure intensity function for two SRGMs respectively.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제67권11호
• /
• pp.1523-1529
• /
• 2018

Electric vehicles that are currently in operation are being produced domestically. Therefore, there is no great difficulty in receiving or repairing the failed parts or in the overall repair. On the other hand, most of the electric locomotives are manufactured by introducing the parts and technology of foreign vehicle manufacturers. In this paper, conducted a study about life cycle cost analysis of developed auxiliary power unit in 8200 series electric locomotive and suggested cost down method. This confirms the economic benefits of the developed products of the auxiliary power supply compared to the existing products. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of MTBF was conducted to suggest a life cycle cost down method.

• 한국정밀공학회지
• /
• 제22권10호
• /
• pp.137-143
• /
• 2005

The integrity of steam generator tubes in nuclear power plant should be maintained sufficiently during operation. For sake of this, complicated assessment procedures are required such as fracture mechanics analysis, etc. The integrity assessment of tubes has been performed by using conventional deterministic approaches while there are many uncertainties to carry out a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic integrity assessment is considered as an alternative method for integrity assessment. The objectives of this study are to develop an integrity assessment system based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and to predict the failure probability of steam generator tubes containing an axial through-wall crack. The developed integrity assessment system consists of three evaluation modules, which apply first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method, respectively. The system has been applied to predict failure probability of steam generator tubes and the estimation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제55권8호
• /
• pp.3017-3029
• /
• 2023

In the late in-vessel phase of a nuclear reactor severe accident, the internal heat transfer and crust evolution during the debris bed melting process have important effects on the thermal load distribution along the vessel wall, and further affect the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) failure mode and the state of melt during leakage. This study coupled the phase change model and large eddy simulation to investigate the variations of the temperature, melt liquid fraction, crust and heat flux distributions during the debris bed melting process in the hypothetical severe accident of HPR1000. The results indicated that the heat flow towards the vessel wall and upper surface were similar at the beginning stage of debris melting, but the upward heat flow increased significantly as the development of the molten pool. The maximum heat flux towards the vessel wall reached 0.4 MW/m². The thickness of lower crust decreased as the debris melting. It was much thicker at the bottom region with the azimuthal angle below 20° and decreased rapidly at the azimuthal angle around 20-50°. The maximum and minimum thicknesses were 2 and 90 mm, respectively. By contrast, the distribution of upper crust was uniform and reached stable state much earlier than the lower crust, with the thickness of about 10 mm. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of initial condition indicated that as the decrease of time interval from reactor scram to debris bed dried-out, the maximum debris temperature and melt fraction became larger, the lower crust thickness became thinner, but the upper crust had no significant change. The sensitivity analysis of in-vessel retention (IVR) strategies indicated that the passive and active external reactor vessel cooling (ERVC) had little effect on the internal heat transfer and crust evolution. In the case not considering the internal reactor vessel cooling (IRVC), the upper crust was not obvious.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.55-63
• /
• 2013

Nuclear power plant site selection is a complex process and its successful completion is a critical milestone in the NPP development cycle. Proper siting of NPP will ensure public health and safety, environmental conservation, reduced project failure risks and a smooth NPP development process among other benefits. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the application of systems engineering to the problem of NPP siting in Kenya. The siting process demonstrated in this paper includes stakeholder need analysis where stakeholders are identified and their needs concerning NPP site are elicited and converted into system functional requirements. A value model is then developed and potential sites iteratively subjected to three types of criteria i.e. exclusionary criteria, avoidance criteria and suitability criteria. This process is used to identify the candidate sites. An additive value model; multiple objectives Decision Analysis (MODA) is then used to calculate candidate solutions values. The site with the highest solution value score is selected. Sensitivity studies using different criterion weight sets (thereby reflecting different viewpoints) can be conducted to assess their effect on the selection of a preferred site and thereby lend additional credibility to the decision process.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• 제22권5호
• /
• pp.543-553
• /
• 2016

The growing complexity of modern technological systems requires more flexible and powerful reliability analysis tools. Existing tools encounter a number of limitations including lack of modeling power to address components interactions for complex systems and lack of flexibility in handling component failure distribution. We propose a reliability modeling framework based on the Bayesian network (BN). It can combine historical data with expert judgment to treat data scarcity. The proposed methodology is applied to wind turbines reliability analysis. The observed result shows that a BN based reliability modeling is a powerful potential solution to modeling and analyzing various kinds of system components behaviors and interactions. Moreover, BN provides performing several inference approaches such as smoothing, filtering, what-if analysis, and sensitivity analysis for considering system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제36권5호
• /
• pp.430-449
• /
• 2004

A quantitative model for a control system that integrates human operators, systems, and their interactions is developed based on discrete functions. After identifying the major entities and the key factors that are important to each entity in the control system, a quantitative analysis to estimate the recovery failure probability from an abnormal state is performed. A numerical analysis based on assumed values of related variables shows that this model produces reasonable results. The concept of 'relative sensitivity' is introduced to identify the major factors affecting the reliability of the control system. The analysis shows that the hardware factor and the design factor of the instrumentation system have the highest relative sensitivities in this model. T도 probability of human operators performing incorrect actions, along with factors related to human operators, are also found to have high relative sensitivities. This model is applied to an analysis of the TMI-2 nuclear power plant accident and systematically explains how the accident took place.

• Applied Biological Chemistry
• /
• 제50권4호
• /
• pp.245-252
• /
• 2007

FTA(fault tree analysis)는 system 오류 관리를 위한 정성적/정량적 기법으로 적용되고 있다. FTA를 적용한 PCR의 오류 관리 system의 구축을 위한 시범적 단계로서 PCR 실행의 여러 단계 중 가장 간단한 단계인 '반응액의 제조 및 PCR 기기 사용 단계'를 모델로 하여 분석하였다. PCR 실행시 발생할 수 있는 오류를 연역적 논리 방식에 의해 fault tree의 형태로 규명하였다. Fault tree는 오류 관리의 최상위 요소인 top event를 중심으로 중간 계층을 이루는 intermediate events와 최하위의 요소인 basic events로 세분하여 구성하였다. Top event는 '반응액의 제조 및 PCR 기기 사용 단계에서의 오류'; 중간계층 events는 '기기 유래 오류', '실험행위 유래 오류'; basic events는 '정전상황', 'PCR 기기 선정', '기기 사용 관리', '기기 내구성', '조작의 오류', '시료 구분의 오류'로 분석되었다. 이로부터 top event의 원인 분석 및 중요 관리점을 도출하기 위하여 정성적/정량적 분석을 실시하였다. 정성적 기법으로 minimal cut sets, structural importance, common cause vulnerability를 분석하였고, 정량적 기법으로 simulation, cut set importance, item importance, sensitivity를 분석하였다. 정성적 분석과 정량적 분석의 결과에서 '시료 구분의 오류'와 '기기 조작의 오류'가 제 1중요관리점; '기기 관리의 오류'와 '내구성에 의한 오류'는 제 2중요관리점으로 일치되게 나타났다. 그러나 '정전상황'과 '기기 선정의 오류'는 정성적 분석에서만 중요관리점으로 분석되었다. 특히 sensitivity 분석에서 '기기 관리의 오류'는 사용 시간이 경과함에 따라 가장 중요한 관리점으로 부각되었다. 결론적으로 FTA는 PCR 모델 case에 대한 오류의 원인 분석 및 그 방지를 위한 중요관리점을 제시함에 따라, 궁극적으로 미래에 PCR의 오류 관리 system을 완성할 수 있는 효과적인 방법으로 사료된다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제26권3호
• /
• pp.411-419
• /
• 1994

원자력발전소 중대사고시 예상되는 수소생성과 이에 따른 수소연소로 인한 압력증가로 야기되는 격납용기의 파손화률을 몬테카를로 방법을 통하여 계산하였다. 몬테카를로 계산을 수행하기 위해서는 각각의 입력변수들에 대한 적절한 확률분포함수가 요구되는데, 통계적인 처리를 통하여 구하였다. 고리 2호기에 대한 계산을 수행하였으며, 입력변수들에 대한 민감도 분석도 실시하였다. 고리 2호기에서 수소연소로 인한 격납용기의 파손확률은 60% 이하로 계산되었으며, 민감도 분석결과 SFD가 중요한 인자이긴 하지만 다른 인자들도 무시할 수 없는 영향을 미치고 있음이 밝혀졌다.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
• /
• 제16권1호
• /
• pp.53-72
• /
• 1991

An integrated model is developed in this paper for the performance assessment of high level radioactive waste repository. This integrated model consists of two simple mathematical models. One is a multiple-barrier failure model of the repository system based on constant failure rates which provides source terms to biosphere. The other is a biosphere model which has multiple pathways for radionuclides to reach to human. For the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the risk assessment of high level radioactive waste repository, Latin hypercube sampling and rank correlation techniques are applied to this model. The former is cost-effective for large computer programs because it gives smaller error in estimating output distribution even with smaller number of runs compared to crude Monte Carlo technique. The latter is good for generating dependence structure among samples of input parameters. It is also used to find out the most sensitive, or important, parameter groups among given input parameters. The methodology of the mathematical modelling with statistical analysis will provide useful insights to the decision-making of radioactive waste repository selection and future researches related to uncertain and sensitive input parameters.