• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population models

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A study on the development of severity-adjusted mortality prediction model for discharged patient with acute stroke using machine learning (머신러닝을 이용한 급성 뇌졸중 퇴원 환자의 중증도 보정 사망 예측 모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Baek, Seol-Kyung;Park, Jong-Ho;Kang, Sung-Hong;Park, Hye-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.11
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    • pp.126-136
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a severity-adjustment model for predicting mortality in acute stroke patients using machine learning. Using the Korean National Hospital Discharge In-depth Injury Survey from 2006 to 2015, the study population with disease code I60-I63 (KCD 7) were extracted for further analysis. Three tools were used for the severity-adjustment of comorbidity: the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), the Elixhauser comorbidity index (ECI), and the Clinical Classification Software (CCS). The severity-adjustment models for mortality prediction in patients with acute stroke were developed using logistic regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine methods. The most common comorbid disease in stroke patients were hypertension, uncomplicated (43.8%) in the ECI, and essential hypertension (43.9%) in the CCS. Among the CCI, ECI, and CCS, CCS had the highest AUC value. CCS was confirmed as the best severity correction tool. In addition, the AUC values for variables of CCS including main diagnosis, gender, age, hospitalization route, and existence of surgery were 0.808 for the logistic regression analysis, 0.785 for the decision tree, 0.809 for the neural network and 0.830 for the support vector machine. Therefore, the best predictive power was achieved by the support vector machine technique. The results of this study can be used in the establishment of health policy in the future.

Growth rates and nitrate uptake of co-occurring red-tide dinoflagellates Alexandrium affine and A. fraterculus as a function of nitrate concentration under light-dark and continuous light conditions

  • Lee, Kyung Ha;Jeong, Hae Jin;Kang, Hee Chang;Ok, Jin Hee;You, Ji Hyun;Park, Sang Ah
    • ALGAE
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.237-251
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    • 2019
  • The dinoflagellate genus Alexandrium is known to often form harmful algal blooms causing human illness and large-scale mortality of marine organisms. Therefore, the population dynamics of Alexandrium species are of primary concern to scientists and aquaculture farmers. The growth rate of the Alexandrium species is the most important parameter in prediction models and nutrient conditions are critical parameters affecting the growth of phototrophic species. In Korean coastal waters, Alexandrium affine and Alexandrium fraterculus, of similar sizes, often form red-tide patches together. Thus, to understand bloom dynamics of A. affine and A. fraterculus, growth rates and nitrate uptake of each species as a function of nitrate ($NO_3$) concentration at $100{\mu}mol\;photons\;m^{-2}s^{-1}$ under 14-h light : 10-h dark and continuous light conditions were determined using a nutrient repletion method. With increasing $NO_3$ concentration, growth rates and $NO_3$ uptake of A. affine or A. fraterculus increased, but became saturated. Under light : dark conditions, the maximum growth rates of A. affine and A. fraterculus were 0.45 and $0.42d^{-1}$, respectively. However, under continuous light conditions, the maximum growth rate of A. affine slightly increased to $0.46d^{-1}$, but that of A. fraterculus largely decreased. Furthermore, the maximum nitrate uptake of A. affine and A. fraterculus under light : dark conditions were 12.9 and $30.1pM\;cell^{-1}d^{-1}$, respectively. The maximum nitrate uptake of A. affine under continuous light conditions was $16.4pM\;cell^{-1}d^{-1}$. Thus, A. affine and A. fraterculus have similar maximum growth rates at the given $NO_3$ concentration ranges, but they have different maximum nitrate uptake rates. A. affine may have a higher conversion rate of $NO_3$ to body nitrogen than A. fraterculus. Moreover, a longer exposure time to the light may confer an advantage to A. affine over A. fraterculus.

Study of Soil Erosion for Evaluation of Long-term Behavior of Radionuclides Deposited on Land (육상 침적 방사성 핵종의 장기 거동 평가를 위한 토사 침식 연구)

  • Min, Byung-Il;Yang, Byung-Mo;Kim, Jiyoon;Park, Kihyun;Kim, Sora;Lee, Jung Lyul;Suh, Kyung-Suk
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2019
  • The accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) resulted in the deposition of large quantities of radionuclides over parts of eastern Japan. Radioactive contaminants have been observed over a large area including forests, cities, rivers and lakes. Due to the strong adsorption of radioactive cesium by soil particles, radioactive cesium migrates with the eroded soil, follows the surface flow paths, and is delivered downstream of population-rich regions and eventually to coastal areas. In this study, we developed a model to simulate the transport of contaminated sediment in a watershed hydrological system and this model was compared with observation data from eroded soil observation instruments located at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. Two methods were applied to analyze the soil particle size distribution of the collected soil samples, including standardized sieve analysis and image analysis methods. Numerical models were developed to simulate the movement of soil along with actual rainfall considering initial saturation, rainfall infiltration, multilayer and rain splash. In the 2019 study, a numerical model will be used to add rainfall shield effect by trees, evaporation effect and shield effects of surface water. An eroded soil observation instrument has been installed near the Wolsong nuclear power plant since 2018 and observation data are being continuously collected. Based on these observations data, we will develop the numerical model to analyze long-term behavior of radionuclides on land as they move from land to rivers, lakes and coastal areas.

A Stratified Mixed Multiplicative Quantitative Randomize Response Model (층화 혼합 승법 양적속성 확률화응답모형)

  • Lee, Gi-Sung;Hong, Ki-Hak;Son, Chang-Kyoon
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2895-2905
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    • 2018
  • We present a mixed multiplicative quantitative randomized response model which added a unrelated quantitative attribute and forced answer to the multiplicative model suggested by Bar-Lev et al. (2004). We also try to set up theoretical grounds for estimating sensitive quantitative attribute according to circumstances whether or not the information for unrelated quantitative attribute is known. We also extend it into the stratified mixed multiplicative quantitative randomized response model for stratified population along with two allocation methods, proportional and optimum allocation. We can see that the various quantitative randomized response models such as Eichhorn-Hayre's model (1983), Bar-Lev et al.'s model (2004), Gjestvang-Singh's model (2007) and Lee's model (2016a), are one of the special occasions of the suggested model. Finally, We compare the efficiency of our suggested model with Bar-Lev et al.'s (2004) and see that the bigger the value of $C_z$, the more the efficiency of the suggested model is obtained.

Analysis of Operation Efficiency in Private University Using the DEA (DEA를 활용한 국내 사립대학 운영 효율성 분석)

  • Bae, Young-Min;Han, Seung-Jo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2021
  • The structure of universities needs to be adjusted and reformed to cope with the decrease in admission resources and the quality of education due to the low birth rate and aging population. Such a policy is receiving much attention. To analyze the relative efficiency of private universities in Korea from the perspective of resource and performance, this study evaluated the efficiency of private university operation by applying a DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) technique. The DEA measurements were compared with the diagnosis results of the department of education (Government) in 2018. The input and output variables used in the research analysis were utilized by the university's notification materials (public disclosure information). An analysis of the operational efficiency showed that 48% (12 universities) of the 25 DMUs (Decision Making Unit) were efficient for DEA-BCC models and that some of the capacity-building universities were operating efficiently. In addition, the DEA analysis found ways to improve inefficient groups through DEA-Additive results. This paper can be meaningful because it confirmed the relative efficiency of private universities and suggested improvement directions through the DEA method, which is characterized by the simultaneous consideration of various input and output factors. This will help apply the limited resources related to the input and output elements of each university.

Road Extraction from Images Using Semantic Segmentation Algorithm (영상 기반 Semantic Segmentation 알고리즘을 이용한 도로 추출)

  • Oh, Haeng Yeol;Jeon, Seung Bae;Kim, Geon;Jeong, Myeong-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.239-247
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    • 2022
  • Cities are becoming more complex due to rapid industrialization and population growth in modern times. In particular, urban areas are rapidly changing due to housing site development, reconstruction, and demolition. Thus accurate road information is necessary for various purposes, such as High Definition Map for autonomous car driving. In the case of the Republic of Korea, accurate spatial information can be generated by making a map through the existing map production process. However, targeting a large area is limited due to time and money. Road, one of the map elements, is a hub and essential means of transportation that provides many different resources for human civilization. Therefore, it is essential to update road information accurately and quickly. This study uses Semantic Segmentation algorithms Such as LinkNet, D-LinkNet, and NL-LinkNet to extract roads from drone images and then apply hyperparameter optimization to models with the highest performance. As a result, the LinkNet model using pre-trained ResNet-34 as the encoder achieved 85.125 mIoU. Subsequent studies should focus on comparing the results of this study with those of studies using state-of-the-art object detection algorithms or semi-supervised learning-based Semantic Segmentation techniques. The results of this study can be applied to improve the speed of the existing map update process.

Detection of Urban Trees Using YOLOv5 from Aerial Images (항공영상으로부터 YOLOv5를 이용한 도심수목 탐지)

  • Park, Che-Won;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_2
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    • pp.1633-1641
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    • 2022
  • Urban population concentration and indiscriminate development are causing various environmental problems such as air pollution and heat island phenomena, and causing human resources to deteriorate the damage caused by natural disasters. Urban trees have been proposed as a solution to these urban problems, and actually play an important role, such as providing environmental improvement functions. Accordingly, quantitative measurement and analysis of individual trees in urban trees are required to understand the effect of trees on the urban environment. However, the complexity and diversity of urban trees have a problem of lowering the accuracy of single tree detection. Therefore, we conducted a study to effectively detect trees in Dongjak-gu using high-resolution aerial images that enable effective detection of tree objects and You Only Look Once Version 5 (YOLOv5), which showed excellent performance in object detection. Labeling guidelines for the construction of tree AI learning datasets were generated, and box annotation was performed on Dongjak-gu trees based on this. We tested various scale YOLOv5 models from the constructed dataset and adopted the optimal model to perform more efficient urban tree detection, resulting in significant results of mean Average Precision (mAP) 0.663.

Development of prediction model identifying high-risk older persons in need of long-term care (장기요양 필요 발생의 고위험 대상자 발굴을 위한 예측모형 개발)

  • Song, Mi Kyung;Park, Yeongwoo;Han, Eun-Jeong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2022
  • In aged society, it is important to prevent older people from being disability needing long-term care. The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction model to discover high-risk groups who are likely to be beneficiaries of Long-Term Care Insurance. This study is a retrospective study using database of National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) collected in the past of the study subjects. The study subjects are 7,724,101, the population over 65 years of age registered for medical insurance. To develop the prediction model, we used logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and multi-layer perceptron neural network. Finally, random forest was selected as the prediction model based on the performances of models obtained through internal and external validation. Random forest could predict about 90% of the older people in need of long-term care using DB without any information from the assessment of eligibility for long-term care. The findings might be useful in evidencebased health management for prevention services and can contribute to preemptively discovering those who need preventive services in older people.

Spatio-temporal analysis with risk factors for five major violent crimes (위험요인이 포함된 시공간 모형을 이용한 5대 강력범죄 분석)

  • Jeon, Young Eun;Kang, Suk-Bok;Seo, Jung-In
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.619-629
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    • 2022
  • The five major violent crimes including murder, robbery, rape·forced indecent act, theft, and violence are representative crimes that threaten the safety of members of society and occur frequently in real life. These crimes have negative effects such as lowering the quality of citizens' life. In the case of Seoul, the capital of Korea, the risk for the five major violent crimes is increasing because the population density of Seoul is increasing as a large number of people in the provinces move to Seoul. In this study, to reduce this risk, the relative risk for the occurrence of the five major violent crimes in Seoul is modeled using three spatio-temporal models. In addition, various risk factors are included to identify factors that significantly affect the relative risk of the five major violent crimes. The best model is selected in terms of the deviance information criterion, and the analysis results including various visualizations for the best model are provided. This study will help to establish efficient strategies to sustain people's safe everyday living by analyzing important risk factors affecting the risk of the five major violent crimes and the relative risk of each region.

One-health Approach in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Focusing on Animal Infection (One-health 관점에서 본 Post-COVID-19 시대의 동물 감염)

  • Hye-Jeong Jang;Sun-Nyoung Yu;O-Yu Kwon;Soon-Cheol Ahn
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2023
  • To prepare for the threat of a future epidemic in the post-COVID-19 era, research based on the one-health concept (i.e., the health of humans, animals, and the environment as "one") is essential. Cross-species infections are being identified as a result of the high infection rate and viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. The possibility of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to mink has been determined. In addition, the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to cats through contact has been considered possible. The data so far show that livestock and poultry are less likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, if infections are established through a new mutation, the resulting diseases are expected to have enormous ripple effects on various fields, such as human food security, the economy, and trade. In addition, there are concerns about the endemic prospect of SARS-CoV-2 and the high accessibility of companion animals. This is because the evolution of the virus likely occurs in animal hosts. Once SARS-CoV-2 is established in other species, they might serve as intermediate hosts for the re-emergence of the virus in the human population. Thus, it is necessary to ensure a rapid response to future outbreaks by accumulating research data on the animal infection of SARS-CoV-2. These data can have implications for the development of animal models for vaccines and therapeutics against SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, in this study, epidemiological reviews were analyzed, and response strategies against SARS-CoV-2 infection in animals were presented using the One-health approach.