• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population data estimation

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Estimation of Smoking Prevalence among Adolescents in a Community by Design-based Analysis (설계기준 분석 방법에 의한 지역사회 청소년 흡연율 추정)

  • Park, Soon-Woo;Lee, Sang-Won;Park, Jung Han;Yun, Yeon-Ok;Lee, Won-Kee;Kim, Jong-Yeon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.317-324
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    • 2006
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to estimate the unbiased smoking prevalence and its standard errors among adolescents in a large city in Korea, by design-based analysis. Methods: All the students in Daegu city were stratified by grade, gender and region, and then schools as primary sampling units (PSU) were selected by probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling. One or two classes were sampled randomly from each grade, from 5th grade in elementary schools to the 3rd grade in high schools. The students anonymously completed a standardized self-administered questionnaire from October to December 2004. The total number of respondents was 8,480 in the final analysis, excluding the third graders in the general high schools because of incomplete sampling. The sampling weight was calculated for each student after post-stratification adjustment, with adjustment being made for the missing cases. The data were analyzed with Stata 8.0 with consideration of PSU, weighting and the strata variables. Results: The smoking prevalence (%) and standard errors for male students from the fifth grade in elementary schools to the second grade in high schools were $0.93{\pm}0.47,\;1.83{\pm}0.74,\;3.16{\pm}1.00,\;5.12{\pm}1.02,\;10.86{\pm}1.13,\;15.63{\pm}2.44\;and\;17.96{\pm}2.67$, and those for the female students were $0.28{\pm}0.28,\;1.17{\pm}0.73,\;3.13{\pm}0.60,\;1.45{\pm}0.58,\;3.94{\pm}0.92,\;8.75{\pm}1.86\;and\;10.04{\pm}1.70$, sequentially. Conclusions: The smoking prevalence from this study was much higher than those from the other conventional studies conducted in Korea. The point estimates and standard errors from the design-based analysis were different from those of the model-based analysis. These findings suggest the importance of design-based analysis to estimate unbiased prevalence and standard errors in complex survey data and this method is recommended to apply to future surveys for determining the smoking prevalence for specific population.

A Study on Water Demand Forecasting Methods Applicable to Developing Country (개발도상국에 적용 가능한 물수요 예측 방법 연구)

  • Sung-Uk Kim;Kye-Won Jun;Wan-Seop Pi;Jong-Ho Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2023
  • Many developing countries face challenges in estimating long-term discharge due to the lack of hydrological data for water supply planning, making it difficult to establish a rational water supply plan for decision-making on water distribution. The study area, the Bandung region in Indonesia, is experiencing rapid urbanization and population concentration, leading to a severe shortage of freshwater. The absence of water reservoir prediction methods has resulted in a water supply rate of approximately 20%. In this study, we aimed to propose an approach for predicting water reservoirs in developing countries by analyzing water safety and potential water supply using the MODSIM (Modified SIMYLD) network model. To assess the suitability of the MODSIM model, we applied the unit hydrograph method to calculate long-term discharge based on 19 years of discharge data (2002-2020) from the Pataruman observation station. The analysis confirmed alignment with the existing monthly optimal operation curve. The analysis of power plant capacity revealed a difference of approximately 0.30% to 0.50%, and the water intake safety at the Pataruman point showed 1.64% for Q95% flow and 0.47% for Q355 flow higher. Operational efficiency, compared to the existing reservoir optimal operation curve, was measured at around 1%, confirming the potential of using the MODSIM network model for water supply evaluation and the need for water supply facilities.

The Validity Test of Statistical Matching Simulation Using the Data of Korea Venture Firms and Korea Innovation Survey (벤처기업정밀실태조사와 한국기업혁신조사 데이터를 활용한 통계적 매칭의 타당성 검증)

  • An, Kyungmin;Lee, Young-Chan
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.245-271
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    • 2023
  • The change to the data economy requires a new analysis beyond ordinary research in the management field. Data matching refers to a technique or processing method that combines data sets collected from different samples with the same population. In this study, statistical matching was performed using random hotdeck and Mahalanobis distance functions using 2020 Survey of Korea Venture Firms and 2020 Korea Innovation Survey datas. Among the variables used for statistical matching simulation, the industry and the number of workers were set to be completely consistent, and region, business power, listed market, and sales were set as common variables. Simulation verification was confirmed by mean test and kernel density. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that statistical matching was appropriate because there was a difference in the average test, but a similar pattern was shown in the kernel density. This result attempted to expand the spectrum of the research method by experimenting with a data matching research methodology that has not been sufficiently attempted in the management field, and suggests implications in terms of data utilization and diversity.

A Comparative Study on the Travel Behavior of Residents by Housing Types and Implication Deduction for TOD Implementation (TOD구현을 위한 주택유형별 거주자의 통행행태 비교 분석 및 시사점도출)

  • Lee, Kyu Jin;Park, Kwan Hwee;Choi, Keechoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2014
  • Recently, urban and transportation planning for Transit Oriented Development(TOD) has become a major issue. For the effective policy implementation of TOD, it is important to understand the travel behavior of residents in housing areas. In this study, we compared the travel behaviors of residents by housing types based on 'the 2010 Household Travel Survey Data' focusing on metropolitan areas. By building an estimation model for subway trip frequency by housing types, it was identified that the factors influencing subway trips and ultimately suggested implications to increase the use of the subway. The highest share of bus mode was for detached house residents with 22.8%, whereas the share of subway mode was highest by efficiency apartment residents with 17.5%. Walking distance to the subway from efficiency apartment and row house were verified as 661meters and 749meters. As the residents of each housing type have more cars and bicycles, their subway trips were decreased. It was also found that subway trips were increased when the population density of residence was high with good accessibility to subway stations and poor accessibility to bus service. In this study, the statistical findings to differentiate the planning factors of public transportation by housing types were also provided. The results of this study would be used for urban design considering the travel behaviors of residents by housing types and can also be utilized for promoting the patronage of public transportation. Some limitations and a future research agenda have also been discussed.

Estimation of the Daily Human Intake of Acrylamide (AA) Based on Urinary N-acetyl-S-(2-carbamoylethyl)-cysteine (AAMA) and the Contribution of Dietary Habits in South Korean Adults (요중 AAMA에 의한 한국 성인 아크릴아마이드(AA)의 하루섭취량 추정 및 기여 식습관에 대한 분석)

  • LEE, Jin-Heon;LEE, Kee-Jae;KANG, Hee-Sook
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.235-245
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: This study estimated the adult Korean daily intake of acrylamide (AA) and investigated its relationship with demographic, lifestyle and dietary habits by using urinary concentrations of N-acetyl-S-(2-carbamoylethyl)-cysteine (AAMA). Methods: Human data (n=1870) was collected in a nationwide cross-sectional biomonitoring program representing the population (18-69 years) residing in South Korea. Urinary AAMA was analyzed with a LC-MS/MS system. Daily intakes of AA were estimated using mass daily AAMA, which was calculated through urinary AAMA concentration and daily creatinine excretion. Statistical analysis was performed with SAS procedures for calculating geometric means, confidence intervals and the exponentiated beta coefficient of multiple linear regressions. Results: Daily intake of AA was estimated at $0.475{\mu}g/kg$ body weight (BW) per day (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.447-0.503). In the case of current smokers, AA intake was $0.957{\mu}g/kg$ BW per day (95% CI: 0.847-1.067), which was significantly higher than that of former smokers and never smoked (p<0.0001). The strong affecting factors were age (95% CI: 0.68-1.14; p=0.0180), education level (95% CI: 1.05-1.42; p=0.0163), body mass index (BMI) (95% CI: 1.00-1.82; p<0.0001), and smoking status (95% CI: 0.97-3.05; p<0.0001). Korean dietary habits increasing AA intake were coffee (p=0.0005), cup noodles (p=0.0010) and canned foods (p=0.0005). Meanwhile, foods decreasing AA intake were fresh fruit (p=0.0076), cooked beef (p=0.0335) and cooked pork (p=0.0147). Conclusion: The Korean daily intake of AA in adults was estimated to be similar with those found in developed countries. The factors increasing daily AA intake were coffee, cup noodles and canned foods, and decreasing factors were fresh fruit, cooked beef and cooked pork.

The Analysis of the Road Freight Transportation using the Simultaneous Demand-Supply Model (수요-공급의 동시모형을 통한 공로 화물운송특성분석)

  • 장수은;이용택;지준호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.7-18
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    • 2001
  • This study represents a first attempt in Korea to develop the simultaneous freight supply-demand model which considers the relationship between freight supply and demand. As the existing study was limited in one area, or the supply and the demand was separated and assumed not to affect each other, this study take it into consideration the fact that the demand affects supply and simultaneously vice versa. This approach allows us to diagnose a policy carried on and helps us to make a resonable alternative for the effectiveness of freight transportation system. To find a relationship between them, we use a method of econometrics. a structural equation theory and two stage least-squares(2SLS) estimation technique, to get rid of bias which involves two successive applications of OLS. Based on the domestic freight data, this study consider as explanatory variables a number of population(P), industry(IN), the amount of production of the mining and manufacturing industries(MMI), the rate of the effectiveness of freight capacity(LE) and the distance of an empty carriage operation(VC). This study describes well the simultaneous process of freight supply-demand system in that the increase of VC from the decrease of VC raises the cargo capacity and cargo capacity also augments VC. By the way. it is analyzed that the increment of VC due to the increase of the cargo capacity is larger than the reduction of VC owing to the increase of the quantify of goods. Therefore an alternative policy is needed in a short and long run point of view. That is to say, to promote the effectiveness of the freight transportation system, a short term supply control and a long run logistic infrastructure are urgent based on the restoration of market economy by successive deregulation. So we are able to conclude that gradual deregulation is more desirable to build effective freight market.

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Study on the Characteristics of Physical By Obesity Level of Adolescent Girls (사춘기 여학생의 비만도에 따른 신체발육의 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Bok;Kim, Myung
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.88-102
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    • 1992
  • The exact estimation of physical growth by Obesity level has important meaning to the health care and evaluation on adolescent girls. So this study tried to clear the relationship between weight and body fat by using data for the height, weight of 124 elementary school children and high school student in Seoul. Then this study tried to show the physical growth pattern and various characteristics by Obesity level by using longitudinal for the height, weight of 1113 high school students in Seoul, and it also tried to show what influencing factors on the physical growth of this aged population. The result could be summarized as follows. 1. The relationship between weight and body fat(%) has 0.81475(r) at age 9 and 0.69361(r) at age 18. Also the relationship between weight and lean body muscle(LBM %) has -0.81470(r) at age 9 and -0.64729(r) at age 18. 2. The weakness, normal and obesity groups were classified by Obesity level. In case of weakness group showed the very low Obesity level at age 8 to 11, in case of obesity group showed the high Obesity level at age 15 to 18. Also Rohrer index was decreasing tendency up to age 12 in weakness group and increasing tendency over age 14 in obesity group. 3. When the height and weight growth pattern was compared, height growth was superior to weight growth at age 9 to 14.5 in normal group. But weight growth was inferior to height growth at age 9 to 14.5 in normal group. In obesity group, weight growth was superior to height growth at age 7 to 18. On the other hand the height growth of weakness group was superior to the normal group and the obesity group except age 11 to 12. 4. On height velocity curve by PHV age obesity group showed the most growth amount per year(9.00Cm/yr), and the next is normal group(8.77Cm/yr), weakness group(8.70Cm/yr). Then the difference between PHV age and PWV age was within 1 year in these three groups. 5. In these three groups, height velocity curve by menarcheal age showed the PHV before 2~3 years of menarcheal age. And weight velocity curve by menarcheal age showed the remarkable PWV before 1 year of menarcheal age.

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Carcass Traits in Hanwoo Steer (거세한우의 도체형질에 대한 유전모수 추정)

  • Yoon, H.B.;Kim, S.D.;Na, S.H.;Chang, U.M.;Lee, H.K.;Jeon, G.J.;Lee, D.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.383-390
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    • 2002
  • The data were consisted of 1,262 records for carcass traits observed at Hanwoo steers from 1998 to 2001 at Namwon and Deakwanryung branch of National Livestock Research Institute, Rural Development Administration. Pedigrees of young bulls were traced back to search for magnifying inbreeding. Genetic parameters for carcass traits with Gibbs sampling in a threshold animal model were compared to estimates with REML algorithm in linear model. As the results, most of bulls were not inbred and sire pedigree group was non-inbred population. However, most of the bulls fell in some relationship with each other. Heritability estimates as fully posterior means by Gibbs samplers in threshold model were higher than those by REML in linear model. Furthermore, these estimates in threshold model using GS showed higher estimates than estimates using tested young bulls in previous study and same model. Heritability estimate by GS for marbling score was 0.74 and genetic correlation estimate between marbling score and body weight at slaughter was –0.44. Further study for correlation of breeding values between REML algorithm in linear model and Gibbs sampling algorithm in threshold model was needed.

Estimation of Genetic Gains in Commercial Layer Breeding Population (상업용 난용종계 집단에서의 유전적 개량량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 오봉국;최연호
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.243-254
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    • 1990
  • This study was carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the selection for commercial populations of layer chickens subjected to multiple objectives. For that purpose, predicted selection responses obtained from estimated genetic parameters and observed values were compared. Data for two layer pure lines, Line-w(Single Comb White Leghorn) and Line-B (brown layer) which have been maintained at the Mani Breeding Farm were collected from 1980 to 1985 during 5 generations. The annual genetic gains were estimated by the moth of selection index in retrospect on the basis of selection differentials, phenotypic and genetic variance-covariance for the traits considered. SM was found to be shorten by 1.67 days and 1.14 days per generation in Line-W and Line-B. EN300 and EN400 were found to be increased by 4.15 and 5.92 per generation in Line-W and 257 and 3.73 per generation in Line-B. The annual gains realized were found to be significantly different from expected gains predicted on the basis of the annual selection differentials and genetic parameters in later generations, but it could not be concluded that the differences were attributed to genetic effects.

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters and Trends for Length of Productive Life and Lifetime Production Traits in a Commercial Landrace and Yorkshire Swine Population in Northern Thailand

  • Noppibool, Udomsak;Elzo, Mauricio A.;Koonawootrittriron, Skorn;Suwanasopee, Thanathip
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.29 no.9
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    • pp.1222-1228
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this research was to estimate genetic parameters and trends for length of productive life (LPL), lifetime number of piglets born alive (LBA), lifetime number of piglets weaned (LPW), lifetime litter birth weight (LBW), and lifetime litter weaning weight (LWW) in a commercial swine farm in Northern Thailand. Data were gathered during a 24-year period from July 1989 to August 2013. A total of 3,109 phenotypic records from 2,271 Landrace (L) and 838 Yorkshire sows (Y) were analyzed. Variance and covariance components, heritabilities and correlations were estimated using an Average Information Restricted Maximum Likelihood (AIREML) procedure. The 5-trait animal model contained the fixed effects of first farrowing year-season, breed group, and age at first farrowing. Random effects were sow and residual. Estimates of heritabilities were medium for all five traits ($0.17{\pm}0.04$ for LPL and LBA to $0.20{\pm}0.04$ for LPW). Genetic correlations among these traits were high, positive, and favorable (p<0.05), ranging from $0.93{\pm}0.02$ (LPL-LWW) to $0.99{\pm}0.02$ (LPL-LPW). Sow genetic trends were non-significant for LPL and all lifetime production traits. Sire genetic trends were negative and significant for LPL ($-2.54{\pm}0.65d/yr$; p = 0.0007), LBA ($-0.12{\pm}0.04piglets/yr$; p = 0.0073), LPW ($-0.14{\pm}0.04piglets/yr$; p = 0.0037), LBW ($-0.13{\pm}0.06kg/yr$; p = 0.0487), and LWW ($-0.69{\pm}0.31kg/yr$; p = 0.0365). Dam genetic trends were positive, small and significant for all traits ($1.04{\pm}0.42d/yr$ for LPL, p = 0.0217; $0.16{\pm}0.03piglets/yr$ for LBA, p<0.0001; $0.12{\pm}0.03piglets/yr$ for LPW, p = 0.0002; $0.29{\pm}0.04kg/yr$ for LBW, p<0.0001 and $1.23{\pm}0.19kg/yr$ for LWW, p<0.0001). Thus, the selection program in this commercial herd managed to improve both LPL and lifetime productive traits in sires and dams. It was ineffective to improve LPL and lifetime productive traits in sows.