• Title/Summary/Keyword: Political risk

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Economic Development, Globalization, Political Risk and CO2 Emission: The Case of Vietnam

  • VU, Thi Van;HUANG, De Chun
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the dynamic effects of economic development, international cooperation, electricity consumption, and political risk on the escalation of CO2 emission in Vietnam. We adopted autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality method to examine the interaction between CO2 and various economic and political factors, including foreign direct investment, trade openness, economic growth, manufacture, electricity consumption, and political risk in Vietnam since the economic revolution in 1986. The findings reflect opposite influence between these factors and the level of CO2 in the intermediate and long-term durations. Accordingly, foreign direct investment and CO2 emission have a bidirectional relationship, in which foreign direct investment accelerates short-term CO2 emission, but reduces it in the long run through an interactive mechanism. Moreover, economic development increases the volume of CO2 emission in both short and long run. There was also evidence that political risk has a negative effect on the environment. Overall, the findings confirm lasting negative environmental effects of economic growth, trade liberalization, and increased electricity consumption. These factors, with Granger causality, mutually affect the escalation of CO2 in Vietnam. In order to control the level of CO2, more efforts are required to improve administrative transparency, attract high-quality foreign investment, and decouple the environment from economic development.

Assessment Models of Political Risk and the Sensitivity Analysis (정치적 위험의 평가모형과 민감도분석)

  • Moon, Chang-Kuen;Yim, Chun-Ho
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.105-122
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    • 2007
  • This paper identifies the dimensions of political risk on the basis of the classification between risk and uncertainties to implement the precise identification and assessment of the various types of political risk and develop the sound assessment model to accomplish their practical applications. This paper shows the concrete and detailed processes of deriving the assessment models and applying them with the microsoft excel spreadsheet, confirms the result of Butler and Joaquin(1998), and presents the methods of identifying the various combination effects of the political risk impact and the covariance relationship with the market portfolio return through the sensitivity analysis.

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In the middle of a perfect storm: political risks of the Belt and Road project at Kyaukphyu, Myanmar

  • Morris, David
    • Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.210-236
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    • 2021
  • China's Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure connectivity and other projects are presented in much of the discourse as a grand strategy to trap developing nations in debt, to exert asymmetric power and construct a new world economic order. The asymmetric relationship between China and Myanmar might therefore be expected to generate a range of political risks for stakeholders. Myanmar itself presents a "perfect storm" of problems, with dysfunctional governance, civil conflict, under-development and growing economic dependence on China. The Kyaukphyu port project and associated Special Economic Zone in Myanmar's troubled Rakhine state is investigated as a case study of risks on the Belt and Road. While worst case fears China might seize military control of the port appear unlikely, at least in current conditions, empirical observation indicates the complexity on the ground generates an array of other risks - as well as opportunities, should conditions allow. Further, despite challenges and constrained capacity, Myanmar governments have demonstrated agency, including by re-negotiating control and costs of the Kyaukphyu project. The case underlines that conditions are more complicated than simply China's asymmetric power. A sceptical approach is taken to normative discourses in order to build inductive understanding of how stakeholders and local experts perceive dynamics underway. A political risk approach is deployed to develop a framework to identify, analyse and assess risks for actors in relation to the Kyaukphyu project. The research findings are presented on an interim basis, given current constraints on field interviews due to the current crisis.

A Study of Institutional Theory and Korean FDI (진출국 제도와 해외직접투자 선택에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Eungo-Sok
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.107-121
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this paper is to explore the determining factors of foreign direct investment(FDI) of Korea by using institutioanl theory. In addition, this study divides institutional facts into the formal and the informal institutions. The empirical test implements multiful regression analysis focuing on korean electronics and automotive industry. The dependent variables are FDI outflow and the independent ones are corruption, econimic freedom, political risk, human development, and culturan distance. According to the empirical results, corruptin and human development have positive effects on Korean FDI outflow. On the other hand, political risks and economic freedom have negative effects on Korean FDI outflow. This results indicate the importance of forman and informal institutional facotrs as determinants of Korean FDI outflow.

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A Study on Risk Management of Bill of Lading in International Trade Transaction (국제무역거래에서 선하증권의 위험관리에 관한연구)

  • Han, Nak-Hyun
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.37
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    • pp.187-216
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    • 2008
  • Risk regarding the possibility of loss can be especially problematic. If a loss is certain to occur, it may be planned for in advance and treated as a definite, known expense. It is when there is uncertainty about the occurrence of a loss that risk becomes an important problem. The word risk is often used in connection with insurance. No one generally accepted definition of risk exists, however. Of the many definitions, two distinctive ones are commonly used. One defines risk as the variation in possible outcomes of an event based on chance. That is, the greater the number of different outcomes that may occur, the greater the risk. Another way of expressing this concept is to state: The greater the variation around an average expected loss, the greater the risk. The second definition of risk is the uncertainty concerning a possible loss. The definition of risk as a useful one because it focuses attention on the degree of risk in given situations. The degree of risk is a measure of the accuracy with which the outcome of an event based on chance can be predicted. For now, it will serve our purpose to note the more accurate the prediction of the outcome of an event based on chance, the lower the degree of risk. After sources of risks are identified and measured, a decision can be made as to how the risk should be handled. A pure risk that is not identified does not disappear, the business merely loses the opportunity to consciously decide on the best technique for dealing with that risk. The process used to systematically manage risk exposures is known as risk management. Some persons use the term risk management only in connection with businesses, and often the term refers only to the management of pure risks. In this sense, the traditional risk management goal has been to minimize the cost of pure risk to the company. But as firms broaden the ways that they view and manage many different types of risk, the need for new terminology has become apparent. The terms integrated risk management and enterprise risk management reflect the intent to manage all forms of risk, regardless of type. International trade transaction is called between countries has features of globalism, cultural gap, long distance and long terms for the transaction. It is riskier than domestic transaction has its specific risks, such as foreign exchange risk and political risk, and requires various active risk management skills. Risks in relation to the international trade transaction are the contract risk, transit risk and payment risk, etc. The risk management in relation to the international trade transaction is to identify and measure these risks. The purpose of this study is to analyse the practical problems and its solution plan by analyzing various cases related to the risk management of bill of lading in the international trade transaction.

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The Differences in the Selection of Outward FDI Locations between State- and Privately Owned Enterprises of China: Focusing on the Effects of Host Country Factors (중국 국유기업과 민간기업 간 해외직접투자 입지 차이 분석: 현지국 요인의 영향을 중심으로)

  • Ra, Wonchan;Wu, Mengqiu
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.345-361
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, Chinese firms have explosively increased outward foreign direct investment (oFDI). While state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are still dominant in Chinese oFDI, privately-owned enterprises (POEs) are also accelerating their internationalization. These two types of Chinese firms differ in their behavior regarding oFDI. The objective of this paper is to analyze the differences in the choice of oFDI locations between Chinese SOEs and POEs by considering host country factors. By integrating the literature on Chinese firms' oFDI and on FDI locations, we developed six hypotheses concerning how host country factors affect their choice of location. We tested our hypotheses by conducting multiple regression analysis with recent secondary data on 413 Chinese MNEs in 88 countries between 2005 and 2016. The results of the test show that in selecting oFDI locations, Chinese SOEs invest relatively more in countries with richer natural resources, more abundant strategic assets, less production efficiency, higher political risk, and lower institutional quality compared with Chinese POEs. It is our hope that the empirical results of this paper will contribute to research on Chinese oFDI.

Lessons from Korean Innovation Model for ASEAN Countries Towards a Knowledge Economy

  • Ocon, Joey D.;Phihusut, Doungkamon;del Rosario, Julie Anne D.;Tuan, Trinh Ngoc;Lee, Jaeyoung
    • STI Policy Review
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.19-40
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    • 2013
  • The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) achieved relatively rapid economic growth over the past decade. Sustainable growth among member states, however, is put into question due to macroeconomic challenges, political risk, and vulnerability to external shocks. Developed countries, in contrast, have turned into less labor-intensive technologies to further expand their economies. In this paper, we review the science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies and statuses of the scientific and technological capabilities of the ASEAN member countries. Empirical results based on STI indicators (R&D spending, publications, patents, and knowledge economy indices) reveal considerable variation between the science and technology (S&T) competence and effectiveness of STI policies of ASEAN members. We have categorized nations into clusters according their situations in their S&T productivity. Under the Korean Innovation Model, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei are classified as being in the institutional-building stage, while Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam in the catch up stage, and Singapore in the post-catch up stage. Finally, policy prescriptions on how to enhance the S&T capabilities of the developing ASEAN countries, based on the South Korea development experience, are presented.

Implications of the Management System on the Secretariats of Major International Arbitration Institutions for the KCAB (KCAB에 대한 주요 국제중재기관들의 사무국 운영방식의 시사점)

  • AHN, Keon-Hyung
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.69
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    • pp.473-493
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    • 2016
  • If a certain country or an arbitration institution hopes to keep ahead of the fierce competition in the international arbitration market, it needs to develop hardware factors, such as i) Facility and Infra, ii) Geographical Location, iii) Professional Staff, iv) Global Network, v) Capital, and vi) Arbitrators & Practitioners etc., along with software factors including i) Arbitration Rules of Law, ii) Court's Support, iii) International Convention, iv) Political Risk, and v) Education Environment, which are the most critical requirements in the development strategy for international arbitration. Having perceived the above situation, the Korean government has been working on amending the Korean Arbitration Act to reflect global advanced practice of international arbitration, and seeking to enact laws that will promote our arbitration industry and create a more arbitration-friendly environment. The KCAB is also currently revising both the domestic and international arbitration rules in accordance with these national efforts. Under these circumstances, this paper examines how major leading international arbitration institutions manage their secretariats and suggests how the KCAB can compose and manage its Secretariat to gain a competitive advantage over rival institutions.

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An Analysis on Determinants for China Market Entry Type of the Korean Company (한국기업의 중국시장 진출유형에 따른 결정요인 분석)

  • Lee, Je-Hong
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.223-242
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    • 2010
  • Since the reopening of official relations in 1992, Korean and China have become major trading partners, apart from myriad exchanges in culture and other aspects of society. The subject of this study is to analysis on determinants for China market entry type of the Korean company. This article measure the effects on Korea exporter interests of Korea's trade with china. This paper investigates the determinants of export and FDI referring in entry type in the China's market of Korea company. There are 250 samples and 130 returns, 170 of them are analyzed for a entry competitiveness. This paper has there main a parts, Multiple regression result shows that the export entry competitiveness are positively affected by the product character and market character. However, The enterprise character and location character does not affect in the export competitiveness. Also, the direct investment entry competitiveness are positively affected by the market character and location character. However, The enterprise character and product character does not affect in the direct investment. Logit analysis result show that the direct investment entry does positively affected in CEO international mind and export entry does affect in more than rival competitive products. In addition, the export entry does positively affected in the customer taste diversity, political risk and economical risk, market environment instability.

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Exploring on 'Go Global' Barriers of Chinese Inner Mongolia Cashmere POEs (중국 내몽고 캐시미어 민영기업의 해외시장 진출 장벽에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lee, Keonhyeong
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.63-82
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    • 2017
  • This study explores the barrier factors of Chinese private-owned enterprises in overseas expansion in terms of corruption, political risk, market fluctuation, cultural difference, and firms resource endowments. To explore the existing practical backgrounds, it was investigated to private-owned enterprises dealing with foreign export companies where run business in Hohhot, Baotou and Ordos, Inner Mongolia, China. The result shows that the corruption and political risks of host countries do not have significant influence on business performance in 'Go global' strategy, while the market fluctuation of host countries has a negative effect on business performance. Cultural difference has a negative effect on business performance, and enterprises' resource endowments have a positive effect on business performance in 'Go global' strategy. Additionally, interviewees provide several substantial suggestions regarding the government policy and industry ecosystem to surmount the barriers of POEs' going global. Lastly, the authors discuss managerial implications and provide several suggestions for the future studies.

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