It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.
ZAINI, Othman;EKO, Prayitno Joko;RAMLI, Dollah;AMRULLAH, Maraining;KIM, Jong Eop
The Southeast Asian review
/
v.26
no.3
/
pp.91-118
/
2016
As all are aware, the results of the Malaysia 12th General Election (GE-12) in 2008 have surprised many. Not only the dominant parties Barisan Nasional (BN) were shocked by the loss of significant numbers of seats but for the first time in the history of Malaysia politics, vis-${\grave{a}}$-vis, electoral affairs, they were denied a two-thirds majority in the Parliament. Notwithstanding the opposition parties such as Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR: The People's Justice Party) that form the opposition coalition called Pakatan Rakyat (People's Alliance: PR), has come to a surprised with the GE-12 result, in which they not even think that were able to challenge hegemonic politics of BN, managed to capture and formed a government at the state level namely Kedah, Penang, Perak, and Selangor, except Kelantan which has been under the control of PAS since the 1990 general election. This article aims to analyze whether Sabah as a "fixed deposit"state is still relevant in understanding the continuity and survival of the BN political hegemony in the context of Malaysia political developments post-13th general election.
Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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v.13
no.3
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pp.135-150
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2010
At the Intergovernmental Meeting held in 1972, the London Convention was adopted to prevent marine pollution from dumping of wastes and other matter. After that, at the special meeting held at the Headquarters of the International Maritime Organization in 1996, the London Convention was revised to consider advances in technology of treatment and disposal of wastes and to reflect changes in understanding of marine environment and then the London Protocol was concluded. The London Protocol states more concrete management system for ocean dumping than the London Convention and also provides that the Meeting of Contracting Parties shall establish those procedures and mechanisms necessary to assess and promote compliance with the Protocol. With the London Protocol in force since 24 March 2006, the Meeting of Contracting Parties adopted the 'Compliance Procedures and Mechanisms (CPM) pursuant to Article 11 of the 1996 Protocol to the London Convention 1972' and established the Compliance Group in 2007. According to the CPM, members of the Compliance Group shall be nominated by Contracting Parties, based on equitable and balanced geographic representation of the five Regional Groups of the United Nations, and elected by the Meeting of Contracting Parties. In 2009, the Republic of Korea nominated a member of the Compliance Group to be subsequently elected by the Meeting of Contracting Parties with the approval of other states in Asia Group. Through the United Nations Regional Group System based on geographical identity or political affinity, Contracting Parties to the London Protocol are expected to form a voting bloc or to exchange information in meetings on the London Protocol. In this sense, it is noteworthy that the London Protocol introduced marine environmental management system for comprehensive prohibition of ocean dumping with exception of the so-called 'reverse-list' which had been earlier adopted by the 'Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic, 1992 (OSPAR)' whose contracting parties belonged to Western European and Other States Group. In recent years, the jurisdiction of London Protocol has been extended to protect and preserve the marine environment from all sources of pollution. This will make the United Nations Regional Group System play more important roles in the activities associated with the London Protocol. For this reason, this article has considered characteristics of the United Nations Regional Group System and has analyzed influences of this Regional Group System in meetings on the London Protocol. This could provide preliminary information for the Republic of Korea to give due consideration to the United Nations Regional Group System on the activities associated with the London Protocol.
This study is about the similarities and the individualties of the traditional costumes in the ruling classes of Koguryo(高句麗), Bakjae(百濟), and Shilla(新羅). The analysis is based on the views of historical reformation on$\boxDr$Sam-gooksagi(三國史記)$\boxUl$Bongi(本紀). The costumes that were worn by the governing classes are categorized by the following, official duties, wars, ceremonies, and recreations(hunting). Up to the present time, there has been a great tendency to emphasize the similarities of the Three Kingdoms' costumes among most of academic researchers. However, the conceptions of individualities of the costumes among the Three Kingdoms were conceived by the facts that geological environments, political systems, social traditions, social aspects, and foreign affairs. The Three Kingdoms had different official rank systems along with official costume systems. Monopolization of official positions of the ruling parties tried to show their dignity and authority through styles of their costumes. The costumes of Koguryo were greatly differentiated by geographical regions ; One direct example is cheak of Pyoungyang and Anak regiona was named as official hats of rulling parties of Kokuryo. However, in this study, the cheak was viewed as a product of influences of Chinese costume. Further-more, the laguan was named as mooguan. Costumes of ceremonial occasions were heavily decorated to symbolize dignity and auth-ority. Metal ornament of headgear and belt, metal shoes were con-sidered as ceremonial costumes. the tight hunting costumes of Koguryo shown in mural pain-ting costumes of Koguryo shown in mural pain-tings were presumed to be spring and autumn clothing. Excavated from Neungasnlee, the hunting costumes inscribed in the gold incense burnner were confirmed as hunting costumes of Bakjae. The individuality of the costumes of the Three Kingdoms could also be supported by the fact that they had different climates. The temperature difference between Gipan region and Kyoungjoo(慶州) region was emphasized. Especially winter clothing would have had a big difference in style than the summer clothing. Through the research summarized above, this study was able to confirm that each of the Three Kingdoms had developed individualized costumes based on their geographical, cultural and environmental factors. Furthermore, through this study, it was possible to find out the difference as well as the similarities of their costumes according to each of their people's sociopolitical status, awareness of indepen-dence, andunique historical and traditional charactoristics.
Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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v.22
no.3
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pp.209-222
/
1997
In this paper, we study a bargaining order problem where one buyer sequentially bargains with two sellers whose reservation prices are unknown to the buyer but correlated. Our main question is who the buyer should bargain first with to maximize his expected payoff. This type of problem is widely applicable to business and political situations where one party negotiates with multiple parties sequentially. One of the most important element in a sequential bargaining is "linkage effect" which exists when the aggreement of the previous bargaining affects the outcome of the following bargaining. To examine "linkage effect", we assume that the sellers'objects are similar so that the sellers' reservation prices are correlated. In addition, to consider incomplete information aspect regarding reservation prices, it is assumed that the sellers' reservation prices are unknown to the buyer. That is, we deal with one sided incomplete information case. In our model, there are two stages in each of which the buyer meets one seller. Since we are concerned with the bargaining order, we consider two different bargaining orders. Using game theory, we find a perfect Bayesian equilibrium and compute the buyer's expected payoff for each bargaining order. Finally we identify the advantageous bargaining order for the buyer by comparing the expected payoffs obtained under two different bargaining orders. Our results are as follows: the advantageous bargaining order depends on the prior probability of the seller type. However, in general, the buyer should bargain first with the seller whose object is less valuable to the buyer. The basic reason for our result is that the buyer wants to experiment in the first stage to find out the sellers' reservation prices and in doing so, to minimize the experimental cost and maximize potential gain in case of negotiation failure in the first stage. in the first stage.
Television viewing affects viewers' attitudes and opinions on their political issues. Since the beginning of General Programming TV services in 2011, they are criticized of their politically biased programming. In order to investigate the effect of General Programming TV on voters' behavior, we analyzed whether or not there is a change in the voting behavior of the conservative parties among the areas with high and low TV ratings of general programming TV. Based on the result of 18th presidential election in December 2012, we could not find any difference in voting behavior on the Saenuri party among the areas with high and low ratings of general programming TV channels. However, in the 6th provincial election in June 2014, while the voting shares of the Saenuri party were higher in the areas with high ratings of TV Chosun, Channel A, and JTBC than in those areas with low ratings.
With a view to grasping how media commercialization is understood and discussed in the media-related academic community, this study compares and reviews other researches on the commercialization process of Korean press. Full-fledged studies have been rarely performed on the history of commercialization, but similar or related studies have been conducted intermittently: One is the commercialization theory in 1933 and the other is the commercialization theory in the late 1960s. Both of them decided Korean press had been commercialized as a strategical option in the midst of political pressure. It gives a clue leading us to understanding on why Korean press shows partisanship which is pointed as one of social maladies. Korean press acquires less economic benefits if they play in the market than if political parties they support or share the same political interest take power, so they are a commercial press as well as a partially partisan press. In this context, commercialization of Korean press is still underway, and genuine commercialization hitting the balance with politicization may have yet to begin.
This article deals with the nature of ISDS along with the admissibility thereof, for the settlement of investment disputes between states and nationals of other states. ICSID as an organization of World Bank Group, has been established in 1966 and as of May in 2011, 157 nations ratified its convention. As for the Republic of Korea(ROK) it has been involved in the problematic situation with regard to ISDS of the KORUS FTA in negotiation with the United States. The ruling Grand National Party is pushing the FTA for ratification including ISDS. However, the opposition party, the Unified Democratic Party rejected the ISDS with a view to a toxin infringing on its judiciary sovereignty. The ROK has invested in the US 3.5 times more than the US did in Korea up to now. As a result, it seems that the ROK is more concerned about ISDS than the US is, considering that exhausting local remedy through the US local courts, applying even a municipal ordinance in their decisions which will be unsatisfactory toward the ROK side. The ROK is now struggling with the ISDS as a political issue between the ruling party and the opposition party mostly based on sovereignty with a reference on AUSFTA which excluded the ISDS. Australian model about ISDS has been impacted by the experience from the NAFTA which allowes direct claims against each other(the US against Canada and Canada against the US). It seems not to be much sympathy for developed countries because it has long been held to standards for pressing on developing countries. Australia is also struggling with ISDS from the political point of view likewise the ROK. And the ISDS is destined to the political situations established within the domestic countries among the political parties in relation with the acceptance or rejection of thereof.
This study examined the trends and issues of social media campaign studies from three aspects-campaign strategy, institutional environment regulating the social media, and political effect. Then, this study performed an empirical analysis on the case of the 20th general election in order to discuss the political effect, which has been analyzed the least. Specifically, this study empirically examined the trends of candidates' participation in the twitter campaign, the partial mobilization and voter response, and the platform effect on the election results. The study examined all of the candidates' twitter accounts and traffic and found the following results.-first, the number of participants in the twitter campaign increased significantly compared to the 19th general election, and the campaign was dominated by only two political parties that had more power to mobilize resources; second, it was clearly identified that twitter is a partisan media. where specifically, those in the mainstream of the Democratic Party mobilized much more supporters; and lastly, the twitter campaign has a positive impact on the increase in the rate of votes and chances of winning the election. Particularly, the number of followers and the duration of activities were found statistically meaningful, proving that promotion of networking and social capital is more important in election campaigns.
Since increase in energy consumption and environmental issues started to grab global attention, various countries have had their own supporting policy to promote supply of renewable energy which is a stable and eco-friendly energy source. This study analyses Korean Renewable Portfolio Standard by comparative analysis of current policies in major countries in respect of design components of a pragmatic industrial policy system, such as political leadership, policy coordination and consultative committee discussion, and policy enforcement with responsibility and transparency. This is to identify problems and to present political suggestions for successful management of the standard based on a fundamental concept of the pragmatism industrial policy. It is predicted that the strategic cooperation between a market and a government leads to industry development as the relationships of two parties are regarded not as antagonistic but as complementary.
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