• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.191-204
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• 2024

This study analyzes the effects of manufacturing firms' R&D investment on sales according to global political economic uncertainty. The variables in this research include the firm's R&D investment, sales, which serves as an indicator of the firm's performance, and the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) index, which reflects situations of global political economic uncertainty. Panel data analysis is conducted by using a total of 96 quarters of data spanning 24 years from 2000 to 2023 based on manufacturing firms in the Wharton Research Data Services' Compustat Database. We study the impact of firm's R&D investment on sales by considering the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index, which was relatively underestimated in previous research, as moderating variable, and present a new direction for research by analyzing the time lag effect. We suggest effective R&D investment strategy for firms.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.639-666
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• 2018

This paper analyses the investment options of groundwater development project under water price uncertainty. The optimal investment threshold price which trigger the investment are calibrated base on monopolistic real options model. Stochastic dynamic model is set to reflect the uncertainty of water price which follows the GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) process. Our finding from non-cooperative investment decision model is that uncertainty of water price could deter the groundwater investment by considering the existence of option values. For policy markers, it is easy to manage 'charges for utilization of groundwater' rather than 'performance guarantee ratio' when managing groundwater investment with pricing policy. And it is necessary to make comprehensive and well-designed policies considering the characteristics of regional groundwater reservoir and groundwater developers.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.639-653
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• 2020

Baker et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134, 1593-1636, 2016) developed an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for South Korea in the same way as the U.S. EPU Index. However, the South Korean EPU index of Baker et al. (2016) has limitations as it did not fully reflect South Korean situation in terms of keyword selection and the selection of newspapers. We develop monthly South Korean economic policy uncertainty indexes with different keywords and news media. Various analyses have been conducted in order to examine the usefulness of the newly compiled indexes.

• STI Policy Review
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.35-44
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• 2011

Korea has rapidly increased R&D investment over the last few decades and the intensity of R&D investment is among the highest in the world; however, there are serious concerns about R&D performance and R&D efficiency. This study is to improve the economic assessment methodology regarding a feasibility study for national R&D programs that are thought to be one of the most prominent ways to enhance R&D efficiency. In order to improve the methodology of economic assessment, a few of important factors such as technical or market uncertainty, spillover effect, and R&D contribution ratio should be covered in the model. The focus of this article is technological and market uncertainty that has a close relation with strategic flexibility and utilization potential to increase the value of R&D programs. To improve the current linear and definitive R&D process, a new framework with strategic flexibility is suggested, in which the result of economic assessment that considers technological and market uncertainty is reflected in planning. That kind of feedback process is expected to enhance the value of the program/project as well as R&D efficiency.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.177-200
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• 2019

Energy demand forecast which serves as an essential input in energy policy is exposed to multiple factors of uncertainty such as GDP and weather forecast uncertainty. The Master Plan of Electricity Market in Korea which is biennially prepared is critically based on fluctuating energy demand forecast whereas its resulting proposal on electricity generation mix is substantially irreversible. The paper provides a real options model to evaluate energy transition policy by considering Knightian uncertainty as a measure to study multiple uncertainties with multiple set of probability distributions. Our finding is that the current energy transition policy under the master plan is not robust in terms of securing stable management of electricity demand and supply system.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.81-99
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• 2024

Live commerce, a rapidly growing sector, facilitates real-time interaction between streamers and consumers about specific products. This business model aids rational purchasing decisions by offering visual demonstrations of product usage. This study aims to identify potential uncertainties faced by consumers in live commerce and propose strategies to mitigate these uncertainties for streamers and platforms. A research hypothesis was formulated based on prior studies and tested through surveys conducted on consumers aged 20 and above with live commerce experience. The study revealed that a streamer's credibility (trustworthiness, expertness, and reputation) significantly impacts purchase intention by mitigating uncertainty. The platform's return policy also interacted with product uncertainty, influencing consumer purchase intention. These findings provide a roadmap for creating a tailored service strategy for live commerce platforms, focusing on reducing uncertainty in the product purchase process.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.197-207
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• 2016

This paper seeks to measure the monetary value of technical development in the deep seabed manganese nodule mining by applying the compound option model (COM). The COM is appropriate for the project in terms of its decision-making structure and embedded uncertainty. The estimation results show that the deep seabed mining project has more economic potential than shown by the previously obtained results from the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. In addition, it is reasonable to invest in the project taking the various uncertainty factors into consideration, because the ratio of the value to the cost of the project is far higher than one. This information can be utilized in national ocean policy decision-making.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.165-184
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• 2020

Applying Ismailov and Rossi (2018), I newly construct the Korea FX uncertainty based on the density distribution of historical forecast errors. This uncertainty index properly captures the rare but significant events in the Korean currency market and provides information distinct from other uncertainty measures in recent studies. I show that 1) FX uncertainty arising from unexpected depreciation has a stronger impact on Korea-U.S. exchange rates and that 2) macro variables, such as capital flows or interest rate differentials, have predictive ability regarding Korea FX uncertainty for short horizons. These findings enable us to predict the events of sudden currency crashes and understand the Korea-U.S. exchange rate dynamics.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.683-692
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• 2020

The primary purpose of the study is to investigate the volatility spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic factors to the Islamic stock market returns. The study focuses on the Islamic stock indices of emerging economies including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Turkey. The Macroeconomic factors are industrial production, consumer price index, exchange rate. EGARCH model is employed for investigation of volatility spillovers. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty has a significant spillover effect only on the returns of Turkish Islamic stock index. Similarly, the shocks in macroeconomic factors have little influence on the volatility of Islamic indices returns. The volatility of Indonesian and the Turkish Islamic stock indices returns is not influenced from the fluctuations in macroeconomic factors. However, there is significant volatility spillover only from industrial production to the returns of Malaysian Islamic index. The results suggest that the Islamic stock markets are less likely to influence from the global economic policies and macroeconomic factors. The stability of Islamic stocks provide opportunity for diversification of portfolios, particularly in stressed market conditions. The major price factors of Islamic markets could be firms' specific factors or investors' behaviors. The findings are helpful for policy makers and investors in formulating policies and portfolios.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.181-188
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• 2010

The research presents the implementation and improvement strategies of scientific methodologies and techniques in the audit criteria of KS certification. The paper discusses the establishment of management strategy and quality policy by the alignment of BSC or policy deployment, the effective handling methodologies of control plan based on SPC, and the traceability of calibration uncertainty and MSA, etc.