• 응용통계연구
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.677-693
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• 2011

본 논문에서는 영 과잉 계수형 자료 분석을 위한 모형중의 하나인 영 과잉 포아송 모형의 베이지안 접근 방법에 대해서 연구한다. 구체적으로는 베이지안 영 과잉 포아송 모형의 적합을 위한 사후 표본을 추출하는데 있어서, 깁스 표집기(Gibbs sampler)를 이용하는 마르코프 연쇄 몬테칼로(MCMC) 방법과 역 베이즈공식(IBF)에 의한 표본추출 방법 두 가지를 고려한다. 이러한 두 가지 사후 표본 추출방법을 비교 설명하고, IBF를 통한 사후표본을 깁스 표집기 사후표본의 수렴성 여부를 확인하는 방식에 대해서도 소개한다. 이를 바탕으로 베이지안 영 과잉 포아송 모형을 Trajan이라는 사과 품종의 발아자료(Trajan data, Marin 등, 1993)에 적용하고 모수에 대한 사후추론을 실시하고 기존의 결과와 비교한다. 또한 주어진 자료에 대하여 영 과잉 포아송 모형이 적합한지에 대한 여부를 여러 가지 모형선택 기준을 통해서 살펴보고, 아울러 기존의 자료 분석 결과 (Rodrigues, 2003)를 보완하기 위하여 계층적 베이지안 모형과 같은 대안에 대해서도 논의해본다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.83-91
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• 2012

PURPOSES : This study deals with Rotary by Accident Occurrence Location. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident models of rotary by location. METHODS : In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using multiple linear, Poisson and negative binomial regression models and statistical analysis tools. RESULTS : First, four multiple linear regression models which are statistically significant(their $R^2$ values are 0.781, 0.300, 0.784 and 0.644 respectively) are developed, and four Poisson regression models which are statistically significant(their ${\rho}^2$ values are 0.407, 0.306, 0.378 and 0.366 respectively) are developed. Second, the test results of fitness using RMSE, %RMSE, MPB and MAD show that Poisson regression model in the case of circulatory roadway, pedestrian crossing and others and multiple linear regression model in the case of entry/exit sections are appropriate to the given data. Finally, the common variable that affects to the accident is adopted to be traffic volume. CONCLUSIONS : 8 models which are all statistically significant are developed, and the common and specific variables that are related to the models are derived.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.574-581
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• 2002

기존의 큐잉분석은 네트워크 용량설계 및 성능 예측시 상당히 유용하지만, 실제의 경우 큐잉 분석으로부터 예측된 결과는 실제 관측된 성능과는 상당히 다르다. 또한 LAM, WAN 및 VBR 트래픽 특성에 관한 최근의 실험적 연구들은 기존의 Poisson 가정에 의한 모델들이 네트워크 트래픽의 장기간 의존성 및 self-similar 특성을 과소평가 함으로써, 실제 트래픽의 특성을 제대로 나타낼 수 없다는 것을 지적해 왔다. 본 논문에서는 exactly self-similar 모델링인 Pareto-like ON/OFF 소스 모델링에 의한 트래픽과 기존의 Poisson 모델링에 의한 트래픽을 비교 분석함으로써, self-similar 트래픽이 실제의 Ethernet 트래픽 특성을 잘 반영한다는 것을 보임으로써 최적화된 ATM 네트워크 설계 및 성능분석을 이루고자 한다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.41-49
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• 2012

This study aimed to estimate the economic value of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area as a part of the total socioeconomic evaluation of the Jeonnam marine ranching program. A travel cost method was applied to the estimation of economic value of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area and input variables included annual fishing trip days, average travel cost per trip, average catch amount, monthly income, marriage, age, and personal perception on the marine ranching program. In the analysis, due to its characteristic of count data, both poisson model and negative binomial model were used. Model results indicated that a negative binomial model was statistically more suitable than the poisson model as the overdispersion problem occurred in the poisson model. All signs of the estimated parameters were estimated as previous studies showed. Based on the results, the economic value per trip of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area was estimated to be 145,000 won and the annual total economic value of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area was analyzed to be 2,514,000 won. In addition, the change of total value by catch rate showed that the economic value could be increased by 180,900 won as the catch increased by one kilogram.

• 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지구물리탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of the international symposium on the fusion technology
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• pp.603-610
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• 2003

The influence of Poisson's ratio on the tensile strength of brittle materials is neglected in many studies. When brittle materials are loaded in compression or impact, substantial tensile stresses are induced within the materials. These tensile stresses are responsible for splitting failure of the materials. In this paper, the state of stress in a spherical particle due to two diametrically opposed forces is analyzed theoretically. A simple equation for the state of stress at the center of the particle is obtained. An analysis of the distribution of stresses along the z-axis due to distributed pressures and concentrated forces, and on diametrically horizontal plane due to concentrated forces, shows that it is reasonable to propose the tensile stress at the center of the particle at the point of failure as a tensile strength of the particle. Moreover, the tensile strength is a function of the Poisson's ratio of the material. As the state of stress along the z-axis in an irregular specimen tends to be similar to that in a spherical particle compressed diametrically with the same force, this tensile strength has some validity for irregular particles as well. Therefore, it can be proposed as the tensile strength for brittle materials generally. The effect of Poisson's ratio on the tensile strength is discussed.

• 정보통신설비학회논문지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.33-39
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• 2011

This paper considers a performance analysis of set-top box (STB) power saving schemes. STB converts the signal into content which is then displayed on the television (TV) screen, and there are typically two operation modes: on mode and stand-by mode. The total energy consumption (TEC), a typical measure of power consumption of STB, is defined by the sum of power consumption in each mode. Recently there are some works of STB power saving schemes that transit STB operation modes efficiently, and the mode transition time point of those schemes can be different. Thus it is required to develop a performance evaluation method that reflects mode transition time points of each scheme to get TEC correctly. This paper proposes a performance evaluation method for STB power consumption using Poisson process to consider the mode transition time point. By modeling STB mode transitions as events of Poisson process, the average time duration of STB mode is computed and accordingly the effect of power saving is evaluated. The performance evaluation result shows that the proposed method achieves 1 to 19% improvement in power consumption compared with a conventional performance evaluation method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제76권5호
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• pp.653-661
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• 2020

The paper presents a study regarding rubber compressibility behavior. The objective is to analyze the effect of compression degree of rubber on its mechanical properties and propose a new methodology based on reverse engineering to predict compressibility degree based on uniaxial stretching test and Finite Element Analysis (FEA). In general, rubbers are considered to be almost incompressible and Poisson's ratio is close to 0.5. Since this property is intimately related to the rubber packing density, little changes in Poisson's ratio can lead to significant changes regarding mechanical behavior. The deviatory hyperelastic constants were obtained through experimental data fitting by least squares method for the most relevant constitutive models implemented in commercial software Abaqus, such as: Neo-Hooke, Mooney-Rivlin, Ogden, Yeoh and Arruda-Boyce, whereas the hydrostatic part was determined through an optimization algorithm implemented in the Abaqus environment by Python scripting. The simulation results presented great influence of the Poisson's ratio in the rubber specimen mechanical behavior mainly for high strain levels. A conventional pure volumetric compression test was also carried out in order to compare the results obtained by the proposed methodology.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.1003-1011
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• 2008

Mixed-effect Poisson regression models are widely used for analysis of correlated count data such as those found in longitudinal studies. In this paper, we consider kernel extensions with semiparametric fixed effects and parametric random effects. The estimation is through the penalized likelihood method based on kernel trick and our focus is on the efficient computation and the effective hyperparameter selection. For the selection of hyperparameters, cross-validation techniques are employed. Examples illustrating usage and features of the proposed method are provided.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.151-157
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• 2014

This study deals with the rear-end collision at roundabouts. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident models of rear-end collision in Korea. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attention to developing the appropriate models using Poisson, negative binomial model, ZAM, multiple linear and nonlinear regression models, and statistical analysis tools. The main results are as follows. First, the Vuong statistics and overdispersion parameters indicate that ZIP is the most appropriate model among count data models. Second, RMSE, MPB, MAD and correlation coefficient tests show that the multiple nonlinear model is the most suitable to the rear-end collision data. Finally, such the independent variables as traffic volume, ratio of heavy vehicle, number of circulatory roadway lane, number of crosswalk and stop line are adopted in the optimal model.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.53-59
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• 2017

PURPOSES : This study deals with traffic accidents involving trucks. The objective of this study is to develop a traffic accident model for trucks at roundabouts. METHODS : To achieve its objective, this study gives particular attention to develop appropriate models using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Traffic accident data from 2007 to 2014 were collected from TAAS data set of road traffic authority. Thirteen explanatory variables such as geometry and traffic volume were used. RESULTS : The main results can be summarized as follows: (1) two statistically significant Poisson models (${\rho}^2=0.398$ and 0.435) were developed, and (2) the analysis revealed the common variables to be traffic volume, number of exit lanes, speed breakers, and truck apron width. CONCLUSIONS : Our modeling reveals that increasing the number of speed breakers and speed limit signs, and widening the truck apron width are important for reducing the number of truck accidents at roundabouts.