Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.18 no.4
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- pp.59-77
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- 2012
This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.
Intractable pain from advanced carcinoma of the upper abdomen is difficult to manage. One method used to control pain associated with these malignancies is to block off the splanchnic nerve. In 1919 Kappis described a technique by which the splanchnic nerve of the upper abdomen could be anesthetized, using a percutaneous injection. This method has been used for the relief of upper abdominal pain due to hematoma and cancer of the pancreas, stomach, gall bladder, bile duct, and colon. During the Period from November 1968 to January 1986, this method was used in 208 cases of malignancy at Severance Hospital and clinically evaluated. Patients were retroactively grouped according to the stage of development of technique used. Twelve patients who received the treatment in the period from November 1968 to March 1977 were designate4i as group 1, 26 patients from April 1977 to April 1979 as group 2, and 170 from May 1979 to January 1986 as group 3. The results are as follows: 1) The number of patients receiving splanchnic nerve block has been increasing since 1977. 2) A total of 208 patients, including 133 males and 75 females, ranging in age from 18 to 84 and averaging 51. 3) The causes of pain were stomach cancer 90, pancreatic cancer 69, and miscellaneous cancer 49 cases respectively. 4) There were 57.7% who had surgery. and 3.7% of whom had chemotherapy before the splanchnic nerve block was done. 5) These blocks were carried out with the patient in the prone position as described by Dr. Moore. For group 2 and 3, C-arm image intensifier was used. In group 1, a 22 gauze loom long needle was inserted at the lower border of the 12th rib on each aide about 7\;cm from the midline. The average distance from the midline was
In analyzing the operational characteristics of a rice whitening machine, the internal radial pressure of the machine was measured using strain gage equipment. Changes in cylinder and feed screw configurations, screen type, cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels were examined to determine their impact on the quality and quantity of milled rice and the performance of the machine. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The internal radial pressure in the whitening chamber varied with the surface condition of the grain being processed. During the first or second pass through the machine, pressure was relatively low, reached a maximum after two to three passes with combinations I and II, three to six with combination III and then began to fall. 2. The pitch of the feed screw and the size of the feed gate opening which determine the rate of entry of grain into the whitening chamber, appeared to be the most important factor aff-::cting the degree of radial pressure, quality and quantity of milled rice and the efficiency of the machine. Using a feed screw with a wide pitch (4.8cm), radial pressure was relatively high and head rice recovery ratio \vere quite low. In this case capacity and machine effic?iency were much higher than obtained when using a feed screw with a narrow pitch (2.3cm). Very significant responses in radial pressure, head rice recovery rates and machine capacity were observed with changes in cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels when using the wide pitch feed screw. 3. The characteristics of the screen which surrounds the whitening chamber had an important effect on whitening efficiency. The existence of small protuberances on the original screen resulted in significant increases in both machine capacity and efficiency but without a significant decrease in head rice recovery or development of excessive radial pressure. Further work is required to determine the effects of screen surface conditions and the shape of the cylinderical steel roller on the rate of bran removal, machine efficiency and recovery rates. The size of the slotted perforations 0:1 the screen affects total milled rice recovery. The opening size on the original screen was fabricated to accommodate the round shape of Japonica rice varieties but was not suitable for the more slender Indica type. Milling Indica varieties with this screen resulted in a reduction in total milled rice recovery. 4. An increase in cylinder speed from 380 to 820 rpm produced a positive effect on head rice recovery for all machine combinations at every level of counter-pressure used in the tests. Head rice recovery was considerably lower at 380rpm using a wide screw pitch when compared to the results obtained at speeds from 600 to 820 r.p.m. The effects of cylinder speed On radial pressure, capacity and machine efficiency showed contrasting results, depending on the width of the feed screw pitch. With a narrow feed screw pitch (2.3cm), a direct proportional relationship was observed bet?ween cylinder speed and both radial pressure and machine efficiency. In contrast, using a 4.8 centimeter pitch feed roller produced a series of inverse relationships between the above variables. Based on the results of this study it is recommended when milling Indica type long grain rice varieties that the cylinder speed of the original machine be increased from 500-600 rmp up to a minimum of 800 rpm to obtain a greater abrasive effect between the grain and the screen. The pitch of the feed screw should be also reduced to decr?ease the level of internal radial pressure and to obtain higher machine efficiency and increased quality of milled rice with increased cylinder speeds. Further study on the interaction between cylinder speed and feed screw pitch is recommended. 5. An increase in the counter pressure level produced a negative effect On the head rice recovery with an increase in radial pressure, capacity, and machine efficiency over all combinations and at every level of cylinder speed. 6. Head rice recovery rates were conditioned primarily by the pressure inside the whitening chamber. According to the empirical cha racteristics curve developed in this study, the relationships of head rice recovery (
In analyzing the operational characteristics of a rice whitening machine, the internal radial pressure of the machine was measured using strain gage equipment. Changes in cylinder and feed screw configurations, screen type, cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels were examined to determine their impact on the quality and quantity of milled rice and the performance of the machine. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The internal radial pressure in the whitening chamber varied with the surface condition of the grain being processed. During the first or second pass through the machine, pressure was relatively low, reached a maximum after two to three passes with combinations I and II, three to six with combination III and then began to fall. 2. The pitch of the feed screw and the size of the feed gate opening which determine the rate of entry of grain into the whitening chamber, appeared to be the most important factor aff-::cting the degree of radial pressure, quality and quantity of milled rice and the efficiency of the machine. Using a feed screw with a wide pitch (4.8cm), radial pressure was relatively high and head rice recovery ratio \vere quite low. In this case capacity and machine effic\ulcorneriency were much higher than obtained when using a feed screw with a narrow pitch (2.3cm). Very significant responses in radial pressure, head rice recovery rates and machine capacity were observed with changes in cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels when using the wide pitch feed screw. 3. The characteristics of the screen which surrounds the whitening chamber had an important effect on whitening efficiency. The existence of small protuberances on the original screen resulted in significant increases in both machine capacity and efficiency but without a significant decrease in head rice recovery or development of excessive radial pressure. Further work is required to determine the effects of screen surface conditions and the shape of the cylinderical steel roller on the rate of bran removal, machine efficiency and recovery rates. The size of the slotted perforations 0:1 the screen affects total milled rice recovery. The opening size on the original screen was fabricated to accommodate the round shape of Japonica rice varieties but was not suitable for the more slender Indica type. Milling Indica varieties with this screen resulted in a reduction in total milled rice recovery. 4. An increase in cylinder speed from 380 to 820 rpm produced a positive effect on head rice recovery for all machine combinations at every level of counter-pressure used in the tests. Head rice recovery was considerably lower at 380rpm using a wide screw pitch when compared to the results obtained at speeds from 600 to 820 r.p.m. The effects of cylinder speed On radial pressure, capacity and machine efficiency showed contrasting results, depending on the width of the feed screw pitch. With a narrow feed screw pitch (2.3cm), a direct proportional relationship was observed bet\ulcornerween cylinder speed and both radial pressure and machine efficiency. In contrast, using a 4.8 centimeter pitch feed roller produced a series of inverse relationships between the above variables. Based on the results of this study it is recommended when milling Indica type long grain rice varieties that the cylinder speed of the original machine be increased from 500-600 rmp up to a minimum of 800 rpm to obtain a greater abrasive effect between the grain and the screen. The pitch of the feed screw should be also reduced to decr\ulcornerease the level of internal radial pressure and to obtain higher machine efficiency and increased quality of milled rice with increased cylinder speeds. Further study on the interaction between cylinder speed and feed screw pitch is recommended. 5. An increase in the counter pressure level produced a negative effect On the head rice recovery with an increase in radial pressure, capacity, and machine efficiency over all combinations and at every level of cylinder speed. 6. Head rice recovery rates were conditioned primarily by the pressure inside the whitening chamber. According to the empirical cha racteristics curve developed in this study, the relationships of head rice recovery (
This paper estimates the impact of Japan's economic sanction on DPRK trade in the 2000s. It conceptualizes the effects of sanction on DPRK trade, econometrically tests whether such effects exist in case of Japan's sanction using currently available DPRK trade statistics, and measures the size of the effects by correcting and reconfiguring the deficiencies of the currently available DPRK trade statistics. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, Japan's sanction can have two different effects on DPRK trade: 'Sanction Country Effect' and "Third Country Effect.' The former means that the sanction diminishes DPRK trade with Japan while the latter refers to the effects on DPRK trade with other countries as well. The third country effect can arise not simply because the DPRK changes its trade routes to circumvent the sanction, but because the sanction forces the DPRK to readjust its major trade items and patterns. Second, currently no official DPRK trade statistics are available. Thus, the so-called mirror data referring to DPRK trading partners' statistics should be employed for the analysis of the sanction effects. However, all currently available mirror data suffer from three fundamental problems: 1) they may omit the real trade partners of the DPRK; 2) they may confuse ROK trade with DPRK trade; 3) they cannot distinguish non-commercial trade from commercial trade, whereas only the latter concerns Japan's sanction. Considering those problems, we have to adopt the following method in order to reach a reasonable conclusion about the sanction effect. That is, we should repeat the same analysis using all different mirror data currently available, which include KOTRA, IMF and UN Commodity Trade Statistics, and then discuss only the common results from them. Third, currently available mirror data make the following points. 1) DPRK trade is well explained by the gravity model. 2) Japan's sanction has not only the sanction country effect but also the third country effect on DPRK trade. 3) The third country effect occurs differently on DPRK export and import. In case of export, the mirror statistics reveal positive (+) third country effects on all of the major trade partners of the DPRK, including South Korea, China and Thailand. However, on DPRK import, such third country effects are not statistically significant even for South Korea and China. 4) This suggests that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import rather than its export. Fourth, as far as DPRK export is concerned, it is possible to resolve the abovementioned fundamental problems of mirror data and thus reconstruct more accurate statistics on DPRK trade. Those reconstructed statistics lead us to following conclusions. 1) Japan's economic sanction diminished DPRK's export to Japan from 2004 to 2006 by 103 million dollars on annual average (Sanction Country Effect). It comprises around 60 percent of DPRK's export to Japan in 2003. 2) However, for the same period, the DPRK diverted its exports to other countries to cope up with Japan's sanction, and as a result its export to other countries increased by 85 million dollars on annual average (Third Country Effect). 3) This means that more than 80 per cent of the sanction country effect was made up for by the third country effect. And the actual size of impact that Japan's sanction made on DPRK export in total was merely 30 million dollars on annual average. 4) The third country effect occurred mostly in inter-Korean trade. In fact, Japan's sanction increased DPRK export to the ROK by 72 million dollars on annual average. In contrast, there was no statistically significant increase in DPRK export to China caused by Japan's sanction. 5) It means that the DPRK confronted Japan's sanction and mitigated its impact primarily by using inter-Korean trade and thus the ROK. Fifth, two things should be noted concerning the fourth results above. 1) The results capture the third country effect caused only by trade transfer. Facing Japan's sanction, the DPRK could transfer its existing trade with Japan to other countries. Also it could change its main export items and increase the export of those new items to other countries as mentioned in the first result. However, the fourth results above reflect only the former, not the latter. 2) Although Japan's sanction did not make a huge impact on DPRK export, it might not be necessarily true for DPRK import. Indeed the currently available mirror statistics suggest that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import. Hence it would not be wise to argue that Japan's sanction did not have much impact on DPRK trade in general, simply using the fourth result above.
The purpose of this study is that I should look for a desirous directions about home economics by studying the requirements and perception of the high school parents who have finished the course of home economics. It was about 600 parents whom I have searched Seoul-Pusan, Ganwon. Ghynggi province, Choongcheong-Gyungsang province, Cheonla and Jeju province of 600, I chose only 560 as apparently suitable research. The questions include 61 requirements about home economics and one which we never fail to keep among the contents, whenever possible and one about the perception of home economics aims 11 about the perception of home economics courses and management. The collections were analyzed frequency, percent, mean. standard deviation t-test by using SAS program. The followings is the summary result of studying of it. 1. All the boys and girls learning together about the Idea of healthy lives and desirous human formulation and knowledge together are higher. 2. Among the teaching purposes of home economics, the item of the scientific principle and knowledge for improvements of home life shows 15.7% below average value. 3. The recognition degree about the quality of home economics is highly related with the real life, and about the system. we recognize lacking in periods and contents of home economics field and about guiding content, accomplishment and application qualities are higher regardless of sex. 4. The important term which we should emphasize in the subject of home economics is family part. 5. Among the needs of home economic requirement in freshman, in the middle unit, their growth and development are higher than anything else, representing 4.11, and by contrast the basic principle and actuality is 3.70, which is lowest among them. 6. In the case of second grade requirement of home economics content for parents in the middle unit young man and consuming life is 4.09 highest. 7. In the case of 3rd grade requirement of economics contents in the middle unit the choice of coming direction and job ethics is highest 4.16, and preparing meals and evaluation is lowest 3.50.
Thecodiplosis japonesis is sweeping the Pinus densiflora forests from south-west to north-east direction, destroying almost all the aged large trees as well as even the young ones. The front line of infestation is moving slowly but ceaselessly norhwards as a long bottle front. Estimation is that more than 40 percent of the area of P. densiflora forest has been damaged already, however some individuals could escapes from the damage and contribute to restore the site to the previous vegetation composition. When the stands were attacked by this insect, the drastic openings of the upper story of tree canopy formed by exclusively P. densiflora are usually resulted and some environmental factors such as light, temperature, litter accumulation, soil moisture and offers were naturally modified. With these changes after insect invasion, as the time passes, phytosociologic changes of the vegetation are gradually proceeding. If we select the forest according to four categories concerning the history of the insect outbreak, namely, non-attacked (healthy forest), recently damaged (the outbreak occured about 1-2 years ago), severely damaged (occured 5-6 years ago), damage prolonged (occured 10 years ago) and restored (occured about 20 years ago), any directional changes of vegetation composition could be traced these in line with four progressive stages. To elucidate these changes, three survey districts; (1) "Gongju" where the damage was severe and it was outbroken in 1977, (2) "Buyeo" where damage prolonged and (3) "Gochang" as restored, were set, (See Tab. 1). All these were located in the south temperate forest zone which was delimited mainly due to the temporature factor and generally accepted without any opposition at present. In view of temperature, the amount and distribution of precipitation and various soil factor, the overall homogeneity of environmental conditions between survey districts might be accepted. However this did not mean that small changes of edaphic and topographic conditions and microclimates can induce any alteration of vegetation patterns. Again four survey plots were set in each district and inter plot distance was 3 to 4 km. And again four subplots were set within a survey plot. The size of a subplot was
Social media has become one of the most popular media in web and mobile application. In 2011, social networks and blogs are still the top destination of online users, according to a study from Nielsen Company. In their studies, nearly 4 in 5active users visit social network and blog. Social Networks and Blogs sites rule Americans' Internet time, accounting to 23 percent of time spent online. Facebook is the main social network that the U.S internet users spend time more than the other social network services such as Yahoo, Google, AOL Media Network, Twitter, Linked In and so on. In recent trend, most of the companies promote their products in the Facebook by creating the "Facebook Page" that refers to specific product. The "Like" option allows user to subscribed and received updates their interested on from the page. The film makers which produce a lot of films around the world also take part to market and promote their films by exploiting the advantages of using the "Facebook Page". In addition, a great number of streaming service providers allows users to subscribe their service to watch and enjoy movies and TV program. They can instantly watch movies and TV program over the internet to PCs, Macs and TVs. Netflix alone as the world's leading subscription service have more than 30 million streaming members in the United States, Latin America, the United Kingdom and the Nordics. As the matter of facts, a million of movies and TV program with different of genres are offered to the subscriber. In contrast, users need spend a lot time to find the right movies which are related to their interest genre. Recent years there are many researchers who have been propose a method to improve prediction the rating or preference that would give the most related items such as books, music or movies to the garget user or the group of users that have the same interest in the particular items. One of the most popular methods to build recommendation system is traditional Collaborative Filtering (CF). The method compute the similarity of the target user and other users, which then are cluster in the same interest on items according which items that users have been rated. The method then predicts other items from the same group of users to recommend to a group of users. Moreover, There are many items that need to study for suggesting to users such as books, music, movies, news, videos and so on. However, in this paper we only focus on movie as item to recommend to users. In addition, there are many challenges for CF task. Firstly, the "sparsity problem"; it occurs when user information preference is not enough. The recommendation accuracies result is lower compared to the neighbor who composed with a large amount of ratings. The second problem is "cold-start problem"; it occurs whenever new users or items are added into the system, which each has norating or a few rating. For instance, no personalized predictions can be made for a new user without any ratings on the record. In this research we propose a clustering method according to the users' genre interest extracted from social network service (SNS) and user's movies rating information system to solve the "cold-start problem." Our proposed method will clusters the target user together with the other users by combining the user genre interest and the rating information. It is important to realize a huge amount of interesting and useful user's information from Facebook Graph, we can extract information from the "Facebook Page" which "Like" by them. Moreover, we use the Internet Movie Database(IMDb) as the main dataset. The IMDbis online databases that consist of a large amount of information related to movies, TV programs and including actors. This dataset not only used to provide movie information in our Movie Rating Systems, but also as resources to provide movie genre information which extracted from the "Facebook Page". Formerly, the user must login with their Facebook account to login to the Movie Rating System, at the same time our system will collect the genre interest from the "Facebook Page". We conduct many experiments with other methods to see how our method performs and we also compare to the other methods. First, we compared our proposed method in the case of the normal recommendation to see how our system improves the recommendation result. Then we experiment method in case of cold-start problem. Our experiment show that our method is outperform than the other methods. In these two cases of our experimentation, we see that our proposed method produces better result in case both cases.