Economic Sanction and DPRK Trade - Estimating the Impact of Japan's Sanction in the 2000s - (대북 경제제재와 북한무역 - 2000년대 일본 대북제재의 영향력 추정 -)
-
- KDI Journal of Economic Policy
- /
- v.32 no.2
- /
- pp.93-143
- /
- 2010
This paper estimates the impact of Japan's economic sanction on DPRK trade in the 2000s. It conceptualizes the effects of sanction on DPRK trade, econometrically tests whether such effects exist in case of Japan's sanction using currently available DPRK trade statistics, and measures the size of the effects by correcting and reconfiguring the deficiencies of the currently available DPRK trade statistics. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, Japan's sanction can have two different effects on DPRK trade: 'Sanction Country Effect' and "Third Country Effect.' The former means that the sanction diminishes DPRK trade with Japan while the latter refers to the effects on DPRK trade with other countries as well. The third country effect can arise not simply because the DPRK changes its trade routes to circumvent the sanction, but because the sanction forces the DPRK to readjust its major trade items and patterns. Second, currently no official DPRK trade statistics are available. Thus, the so-called mirror data referring to DPRK trading partners' statistics should be employed for the analysis of the sanction effects. However, all currently available mirror data suffer from three fundamental problems: 1) they may omit the real trade partners of the DPRK; 2) they may confuse ROK trade with DPRK trade; 3) they cannot distinguish non-commercial trade from commercial trade, whereas only the latter concerns Japan's sanction. Considering those problems, we have to adopt the following method in order to reach a reasonable conclusion about the sanction effect. That is, we should repeat the same analysis using all different mirror data currently available, which include KOTRA, IMF and UN Commodity Trade Statistics, and then discuss only the common results from them. Third, currently available mirror data make the following points. 1) DPRK trade is well explained by the gravity model. 2) Japan's sanction has not only the sanction country effect but also the third country effect on DPRK trade. 3) The third country effect occurs differently on DPRK export and import. In case of export, the mirror statistics reveal positive (+) third country effects on all of the major trade partners of the DPRK, including South Korea, China and Thailand. However, on DPRK import, such third country effects are not statistically significant even for South Korea and China. 4) This suggests that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import rather than its export. Fourth, as far as DPRK export is concerned, it is possible to resolve the abovementioned fundamental problems of mirror data and thus reconstruct more accurate statistics on DPRK trade. Those reconstructed statistics lead us to following conclusions. 1) Japan's economic sanction diminished DPRK's export to Japan from 2004 to 2006 by 103 million dollars on annual average (Sanction Country Effect). It comprises around 60 percent of DPRK's export to Japan in 2003. 2) However, for the same period, the DPRK diverted its exports to other countries to cope up with Japan's sanction, and as a result its export to other countries increased by 85 million dollars on annual average (Third Country Effect). 3) This means that more than 80 per cent of the sanction country effect was made up for by the third country effect. And the actual size of impact that Japan's sanction made on DPRK export in total was merely 30 million dollars on annual average. 4) The third country effect occurred mostly in inter-Korean trade. In fact, Japan's sanction increased DPRK export to the ROK by 72 million dollars on annual average. In contrast, there was no statistically significant increase in DPRK export to China caused by Japan's sanction. 5) It means that the DPRK confronted Japan's sanction and mitigated its impact primarily by using inter-Korean trade and thus the ROK. Fifth, two things should be noted concerning the fourth results above. 1) The results capture the third country effect caused only by trade transfer. Facing Japan's sanction, the DPRK could transfer its existing trade with Japan to other countries. Also it could change its main export items and increase the export of those new items to other countries as mentioned in the first result. However, the fourth results above reflect only the former, not the latter. 2) Although Japan's sanction did not make a huge impact on DPRK export, it might not be necessarily true for DPRK import. Indeed the currently available mirror statistics suggest that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import. Hence it would not be wise to argue that Japan's sanction did not have much impact on DPRK trade in general, simply using the fourth result above.
With the MICE(Meeting, Incentive travel, Convention, Exhibition) industry coming into the spotlight, there has been a growing interest in the domestic exhibition industry. Accordingly, in Korea, various studies of the industry are being conducted to enhance exhibition performance as in the United States or Europe. Some studies are focusing particularly on analyzing visiting patterns of exhibition visitors using intelligent information technology in consideration of the variations in effects of watching exhibitions according to the exhibitory environment or technique, thereby understanding visitors and, furthermore, drawing the correlations between exhibiting businesses and improving exhibition performance. However, previous studies related to booth recommendation systems only discussed the accuracy of recommendation in the aspect of a system rather than determining changes in visitors' behavior or perception by recommendation. A booth recommendation system enables visitors to visit unplanned exhibition booths by recommending visitors suitable ones based on information about visitors' visits. Meanwhile, some visitors may be satisfied with their unplanned visits, while others may consider the recommending process to be cumbersome or obstructive to their free observation. In the latter case, the exhibition is likely to produce worse results compared to when visitors are allowed to freely observe the exhibition. Thus, in order to apply a booth recommendation system to exhibition halls, the factors affecting the performance of the system should be generally examined, and the effects of the system on visitors' unplanned visiting behavior should be carefully studied. As such, this study aims to determine the factors that affect the performance of a booth recommendation system by reviewing theories and literature and to examine the effects of visitors' perceived performance of the system on their satisfaction of unplanned behavior and intention to reuse the system. Toward this end, the unplanned behavior theory was adopted as the theoretical framework. Unplanned behavior can be defined as "behavior that is done by consumers without any prearranged plan". Thus far, consumers' unplanned behavior has been studied in various fields. The field of marketing, in particular, has focused on unplanned purchasing among various types of unplanned behavior, which has been often confused with impulsive purchasing. Nevertheless, the two are different from each other; while impulsive purchasing means strong, continuous urges to purchase things, unplanned purchasing is behavior with purchasing decisions that are made inside a store, not before going into one. In other words, all impulsive purchases are unplanned, but not all unplanned purchases are impulsive. Then why do consumers engage in unplanned behavior? Regarding this question, many scholars have made many suggestions, but there has been a consensus that it is because consumers have enough flexibility to change their plans in the middle instead of developing plans thoroughly. In other words, if unplanned behavior costs much, it will be difficult for consumers to change their prearranged plans. In the case of the exhibition hall examined in this study, visitors learn the programs of the hall and plan which booth to visit in advance. This is because it is practically impossible for visitors to visit all of the various booths that an exhibition operates due to their limited time. Therefore, if the booth recommendation system proposed in this study recommends visitors booths that they may like, they can change their plans and visit the recommended booths. Such visiting behavior can be regarded similarly to consumers' visit to a store or tourists' unplanned behavior in a tourist spot and can be understand in the same context as the recent increase in tourism consumers' unplanned behavior influenced by information devices. Thus, the following research model was established. This research model uses visitors' perceived performance of a booth recommendation system as the parameter, and the factors affecting the performance include trust in the system, exhibition visitors' knowledge levels, expected personalization of the system, and the system's threat to freedom. In addition, the causal relation between visitors' satisfaction of their perceived performance of the system and unplanned behavior and their intention to reuse the system was determined. While doing so, trust in the booth recommendation system consisted of 2nd order factors such as competence, benevolence, and integrity, while the other factors consisted of 1st order factors. In order to verify this model, a booth recommendation system was developed to be tested in 2011 DMC Culture Open, and 101 visitors were empirically studied and analyzed. The results are as follows. First, visitors' trust was the most important factor in the booth recommendation system, and the visitors who used the system perceived its performance as a success based on their trust. Second, visitors' knowledge levels also had significant effects on the performance of the system, which indicates that the performance of a recommendation system requires an advance understanding. In other words, visitors with higher levels of understanding of the exhibition hall learned better the usefulness of the booth recommendation system. Third, expected personalization did not have significant effects, which is a different result from previous studies' results. This is presumably because the booth recommendation system used in this study did not provide enough personalized services. Fourth, the recommendation information provided by the booth recommendation system was not considered to threaten or restrict one's freedom, which means it is valuable in terms of usefulness. Lastly, high performance of the booth recommendation system led to visitors' high satisfaction levels of unplanned behavior and intention to reuse the system. To sum up, in order to analyze the effects of a booth recommendation system on visitors' unplanned visits to a booth, empirical data were examined based on the unplanned behavior theory and, accordingly, useful suggestions for the establishment and design of future booth recommendation systems were made. In the future, further examination should be conducted through elaborate survey questions and survey objects.
A costume reveals the social characteristics of the era in which it is worn, thus we can say that the history of change of the costume is the history of change of the living culture of the era. Since the Three States era, the costume structure of this country had been affected by the costume system of the China's historical dynasties in the form of the grant therefrom because of geographical conditions, which affection was conspicuous for the bureaucrat class, particularly including but not limited to the Kings' familities. Such a grant of the costume for the bureaucrat class (i.e., official uniform) was first given by the Dang-dynasty at the age of Queen Jinduck, the 28th of the Shilla-dynasty. Since then, the costume for the bureaucrats had consecutively been affected as the ages had gone from the unified Shilla, to the Koryo and to the Yi-dynasty. As the full costumes officially used by government officials (generally called "Baek Gwan") in the Yidynasty, there existed Jo-bok, Gong-bok and Sang-bok. Of such official costumes, Gong-bok was worn at the time of conducting official affairs of the dynasty, making a respectful visit for the expression of thanks or meeting diplomatic missions of foreign countries. It appears no study was made yet with regard to the Gong-bok while the studies on the Jo-bok and the Sangbok were made. Therefore, this article is, by rendering a study and research on the styles of costumes of civil servants' stone images erected at the Kings' tombs of the Yi-dynasty, to help the persons concerned understand the Gong-bok, one of the official costume for Baek Kwan of that age and further purports to specifically identify the styles and changes of the Gong-bok, worn by Baek Gwan during the Yi-dynasty, consisting of the Bok-doo (a hat, four angled and two storied with flat top), Po (gown), Dae (belt), and Hol (small and thin plate which was officially held by the government officials in hand, showing the courtesy to and writing brief memorandums before the King) and Hwa (shoes). For that purpose, I investigated by actually visiting the tombs of the Kings of the Yi-dynasty including the Geonwon-neung, the tomb of the first King Tae-jo and the You-neung, the tomb of the 27th King Soon-jong as well as the tombs of the lawful wives and concubines of various Kings, totalling 29 tombs and made reference to relevant books and records. Pursuant. to this study, of the 29 Kings' tombs the costume styles of civil servants' stone images erected at the 26 Kings' tombs are those of Gong-bok for Baek-gwan of the Yi-dynasty wearing Bok-doo as a hat and Ban-ryeong or Dan-ryenog Po as a gown with Dae, holding Hol in hand and wearing shoes. Other than those of the 26 tombs, the costume styles of the Ryu-neung, the tomb of the Moon-jo who was the first son of 23rd King Soon-jo and given the King's title after he died and of the You-neung, the tomb of the 27th King Soon-jong are those of Jobok with Yang-gwan (a sort of hat having stripes erected, which is different from the Bok-doo), and that of the Hong-neung, the tomb of the 26th King Go-jong shows an exceptional one wearing Yang-gwan and Ban-ryeong Po ; these costume styles other than Gongbok remain as the subject for further study. Gong-bok which is the costume style of civil servants' stone images of most of the Kings' tombs had not been changed in its basic structure for about 500 years of the Yi-dynasty and Koryo categorized by the class of officials pursuant to the color of Po and materials of Dae and Hol. Summary of this costume style follows: (1) Gwan-mo (hat). The Gwan-mo style of civil servants' stone images of the 26 Kings' tombs, other than Ryu-neung, Hong-neung and You-neung which have Yang-gwan, out of the 29 Kings' tombs of the Yi-dynasty reveals the Bok-doo with four angled top, having fore-part and back-part divided. Back part of the Bok-doo is double the fore-part in height. The expression of the Gak (wings of the Bokdoo) varies: the Gyo-gak Bok-doo in that the Gaks, roundly arisen to the direction of the top, are clossed each other (tombs of the Kings Tae-jong), the downward style Jeon-gak Bok-doo in that soft Gaks are hanged on the shoulders (tombs of the Kings Joong-jong and Seong-jong) and another types of Jeon-gak Bok-doo having Gaks which arearisen steeply or roundly to the direction of top and the end of which are treated in a rounded or straight line form. At the lower edge one protrusive line distinctly reveals. Exceptionally, there reveals 11 Yang-gwan (gwan having 11 stripes erected) at the Ryu-neung of the King Moon-jo, 9 Yang-gwan at the Hong-neung of the King Go-jong and 11 Yang-gwan at the You-neung of the King Soon-jong; noting that the Yang-gwan of Baek Kwan, granted by the Myeong-dynasty of the China during the Yi-dynasty, was in the shape of 5 Yang-gwan for the first Poom (class) based on the principle of "Yideung Chaegang" (gradual degrading for secondary level), the above-mentioned Yang-gwans are very contrary to the principle and I do not touch such issue in this study, leaving for further study. (2) Po (gown). (a) Git (collar). Collar style of Po was the Ban-ryeong (round collar) having small neck-line in the early stage and was changed to the Dan-ryeong (round collar having deep neck-line) in the middle of the: dynasty. In the Dan-ryeong style of the middle era (shown at the tomb of the King Young-jo); a, thin line such as bias is shown around the internal side edge and the width of collar became wide a little. It is particularly noted that the Ryu-neung established in the middle stage and the You-neung in the later stage show civil servants in Jo-bok with the the Jikryeong (straight collar) Po and in case of the Hong-neung, the Hong-neung, the tomb of the King Go-jong, civil servants, although they wear Yang-gwan, are in the Ban-ryeong Po with Hoo-soo (back embroidery) and Dae and wear shoes as used in the Jo-bok style. As I could not make clear the theoretical basis of why the civil servants' costume styles revealed, at these tombs of the Kings are different from those of other tombs, I left this issue for further study. It is also noted that all the civil servants' stone images show the shape of triangled collar which is revealed over the Godae-git of Po. This triangled collar, I believe, would be the collar of the Cheomri which was worn in the middle of the Po and the underwear, (b) Sleeve. The sleeve was in the Gwan-soo (wide sleeve) style. having the width of over 100 centimeter from the early stage to the later stage arid in the Doo-ri sleeve style having the edge slightly rounded and we can recognize that it was the long sleeve in view of block fold shaped protrusive line, expressed on the arms. At the age of the King Young-jo, the sleeve-end became slightly narrow and as a result, the lower line of the sleeve were shaped curved. We can see another shape of narrow sleeve inside the wide sleeve-end, which should be the sleeve of the Cheom-ri worn under the Gong-bok. (c) Moo. The Moo revealed on the Po of civil servants' stone images at the age of the King Sook-jong' coming to the middle era. Initially the top of the Moo was expressed flat but the Moo was gradually changed to the triangled shape with the acute top. In certain cases, top or lower part of the Moo are not reveald because of wear and tear. (d) Yeomim. Yeomim (folding) of the Po was first expressed on civil servants' stone images of the Won-neung, the tomb of the King Young-jo and we can seemore delicate expression of the Yeomim and Goreum (stripe folding and fixing the lapel of the Po) at the tomb of the Jeongseong-wanghoo, the wife of the King Young-jo, At the age of the King Soon-jo, we can see the shape of Goreum similar to a string rather than the Goreum and the upper part of the Goreum which fixes Yeomim was expressed on the right sleeve. (3) Dae. Dae fixed on the Po was placed half of the length of Po from the shoulders in the early stage. Thereafter, at the age of the King Hyeon-jong it was shown on the slightly upper part. placed around one third of the length of Po. With regard to the design of Dae, all the civil servants' stone images of the Kings' tombs other than those of the Geonwon-neung of the King Tae-jo show single or double protrusive line expressed at the edge of Dae and in the middle of such lines, cloud pattern, dangcho (a grass) pattern, chrysanthemum pattern or other various types of flowery patterns were designed. Remaining portion of the waist Dae was hanged up on the back, which was initially expressed as directed from the left to the right but thereafter expressed. without orderly fashion,. to the direction of the left from the right and vice versa, Dae was in the shape of Yaja Dae. In this regard, an issue of when or where such a disorderly fashion of the direction of the remaining portion of waist Dae was originated is also presented to be clarified. In case of the Ryuneung, Hong-neung and You-neung which have civil servants' stone images wearing exceptional costume (Jo-bok), waist Dae of the Ryu-neung and Hong-neung are designed in the mixture of dual cranes pattern, cosecutive beaded pattern and chrvsenthemum pattern and that of You-neung is designed in cloud pattern. (4) Hol. Although materials of the Hol held in hand of civil servants' stone images are not identifiable, those should be the ivory Hol as all the Baek Gwan's erected as stone images should be high class officials. In the styles, no significant changes were found, however the Hol's expressed on civil servants' stone images of the Yi-dynasty were shaped in round top and angled bottom or round top and bottom. Parcicularly, at the age of the King Young-jo the Hol was expressed in the peculiar type with four angles all cut off. (5) Hwa (shoes). As the shoes expressed on civil servants' stone images are covered with the lower edges of the Po, the styles thereof are not exactly identifiable. However, reading the statement "black leather shoes for the first class (1 Poom) to ninth class (9 Poom)," recorded in the Gyeongkook Daejon, we can believe that the shoes were worn. As the age went on, the front tips of the shoes were soared and particularly, at the Hong-neung of the King Go-jong the shoes were obviously expressed with modern sense as the country were civilized.
The wall shear stress in the vicinity of end-to end anastomoses under steady flow conditions was measured using a flush-mounted hot-film anemometer(FMHFA) probe. The experimental measurements were in good agreement with numerical results except in flow with low Reynolds numbers. The wall shear stress increased proximal to the anastomosis in flow from the Penrose tubing (simulating an artery) to the PTFE: graft. In flow from the PTFE graft to the Penrose tubing, low wall shear stress was observed distal to the anastomosis. Abnormal distributions of wall shear stress in the vicinity of the anastomosis, resulting from the compliance mismatch between the graft and the host artery, might be an important factor of ANFH formation and the graft failure. The present study suggests a correlation between regions of the low wall shear stress and the development of anastomotic neointimal fibrous hyperplasia(ANPH) in end-to-end anastomoses. 30523 T00401030523 ^x Air pressure decay(APD) rate and ultrafiltration rate(UFR) tests were performed on new and saline rinsed dialyzers as well as those roused in patients several times. C-DAK 4000 (Cordis Dow) and CF IS-11 (Baxter Travenol) reused dialyzers obtained from the dialysis clinic were used in the present study. The new dialyzers exhibited a relatively flat APD, whereas saline rinsed and reused dialyzers showed considerable amount of decay. C-DAH dialyzers had a larger APD(11.70
The wall shear stress in the vicinity of end-to end anastomoses under steady flow conditions was measured using a flush-mounted hot-film anemometer(FMHFA) probe. The experimental measurements were in good agreement with numerical results except in flow with low Reynolds numbers. The wall shear stress increased proximal to the anastomosis in flow from the Penrose tubing (simulating an artery) to the PTFE: graft. In flow from the PTFE graft to the Penrose tubing, low wall shear stress was observed distal to the anastomosis. Abnormal distributions of wall shear stress in the vicinity of the anastomosis, resulting from the compliance mismatch between the graft and the host artery, might be an important factor of ANFH formation and the graft failure. The present study suggests a correlation between regions of the low wall shear stress and the development of anastomotic neointimal fibrous hyperplasia(ANPH) in end-to-end anastomoses. 30523 T00401030523 ^x Air pressure decay(APD) rate and ultrafiltration rate(UFR) tests were performed on new and saline rinsed dialyzers as well as those roused in patients several times. C-DAK 4000 (Cordis Dow) and CF IS-11 (Baxter Travenol) reused dialyzers obtained from the dialysis clinic were used in the present study. The new dialyzers exhibited a relatively flat APD, whereas saline rinsed and reused dialyzers showed considerable amount of decay. C-DAH dialyzers had a larger APD(11.70