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Analysis of Trading Performance on Intelligent Trading System for Directional Trading (방향성매매를 위한 지능형 매매시스템의 투자성과분석)

  • Choi, Heung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.187-201
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    • 2011
  • KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

Extracting Beginning Boundaries for Efficient Management of Movie Storytelling Contents (스토리텔링 콘텐츠의 효과적인 관리를 위한 영화 스토리 발단부의 자동 경계 추출)

  • Park, Seung-Bo;You, Eun-Soon;Jung, Jason J.
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.279-292
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    • 2011
  • Movie is a representative media that can transmit stories to audiences. Basically, a story is described by characters in the movie. Different from other simple videos, movies deploy narrative structures for explaining various conflicts or collaborations between characters. These narrative structures consist of 3 main acts, which are beginning, middle, and ending. The beginning act includes 1) introduction to main characters and backgrounds, and 2) conflicts implication and clues for incidents. The middle act describes the events developed by both inside and outside factors and the story dramatic tension heighten. Finally, in the end act, the events are developed are resolved, and the topic of story and message of writer are transmitted. When story information is extracted from movie, it is needed to consider that it has different weights by narrative structure. Namely, when some information is extracted, it has a different influence to story deployment depending on where it locates at the beginning, middle and end acts. The beginning act is the part that exposes to audiences for story set-up various information such as setting of characters and depiction of backgrounds. And thus, it is necessary to extract much kind information from the beginning act in order to abstract a movie or retrieve character information. Thereby, this paper proposes a novel method for extracting the beginning boundaries. It is the method that detects a boundary scene between the beginning act and middle using the accumulation graph of characters. The beginning act consists of the scenes that introduce important characters, imply the conflict relationship between them, and suggest clues to resolve troubles. First, a scene that the new important characters don't appear any more should be detected in order to extract a scene completed the introduction of them. The important characters mean the major and minor characters, which can be dealt as important characters since they lead story progression. Extra should be excluded in order to extract a scene completed the introduction of important characters in the accumulation graph of characters. Extra means the characters that appear only several scenes. Second, the inflection point is detected in the accumulation graph of characters. It is the point that the increasing line changes to horizontal line. Namely, when the slope of line keeps zero during long scenes, starting point of this line with zero slope becomes the inflection point. Inflection point will be detected in the accumulation graph of characters without extra. Third, several scenes are considered as additional story progression such as conflicts implication and clues suggestion. Actually, movie story can arrive at a scene located between beginning act and middle when additional several scenes are elapsed after the introduction of important characters. We will decide the ratio of additional scenes for total scenes by experiment in order to detect this scene. The ratio of additional scenes is gained as 7.67% by experiment. It is the story inflection point to change from beginning to middle act when this ratio is added to the inflection point of graph. Our proposed method consists of these three steps. We selected 10 movies for experiment and evaluation. These movies consisted of various genres. By measuring the accuracy of boundary detection experiment, we have shown that the proposed method is more efficient.

A Study on Significance Testing of Driver's Visual Behavior due to the VMS Message Display Forms on the Road (도로상 VMS 표출방식별 운전자 유의성 검증에 관한 연구)

  • Kum, Ki-Jung;Son, Young-Tae;Bae, Deok-Mo;Son, Seung-Neo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.7 no.4 s.26
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2005
  • Variable Message Sign (VMS), which provides drivers with direct information about state of traffic congestion and for prevent an accident, is the most effective method among the methods of providing information in Advanced Transportation Management System. Currently establishment and the VMS which is operated foundation lets in Guidelines on the use of Variable message sign (a book of the VMS) of 1999 November the Ministry Construction & Transportation, these contents mean main viewpoint on physical part such as message special quality variable (font, character size and line space, word interval) and position mainly among standard about establishment in general. But, it is true that using without effect verification on the character of VMS display and that using mode of stationary-centered. In this paper, it executed significance test to effort verification on the character of VMS display for more practical and effective information transmission based on the driver viewpoint For the researches; develop 3D-Simulation, select characteristics of driver's visual cognition behavior (the conspicuity, the legibility and the comprehensibility), evaluation each issue (day or night, 80km/h or 100km/h). Especially, that used the Eye Marker Recorder to measure of reading-time (legibility) thus, confirmed objectivity and reduce an observational error. The results showed that the conspicuity is Flashing> Stationary>Scroll. The legibility is not deference that Flashing between stationary form. Also the comprehensibility result showed that Flashing> Stationary>Stroll form.

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A Study on Problems with the ROK's Bioterrorism Response System and Ways to Improve it (생물테러 대응체제의 문제점과 개선방안 연구)

  • Jung, Yook-Sang
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.22
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    • pp.113-144
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    • 2010
  • Bioterrorism is becoming more attractive to terrorist groups owing to the dramatic increase in the utility and lethality of biological weapons in line with today's cutting-edge biological science and technology. The Republic of Korea is facing both internal and external terrorist threats, as well as the possible biological warfare by North Korea. Therefore, it is essential to establish an effective bioterrorism response system in the ROK. In order to come up with the adequate response system for the ROK, an in-depth study has been conducted on the current bioterrorism response system of the U.S. whose preparedness is considered relatively adamant. As a result, the following facts have been found: (1)the legislation with regard to bioterrorism has been established or amended according to the current situation in the U.S., (2)the counter terrorism activities have been integrated with the Department of the Homeland Security as the central agency in order to maximize the national CT capacity, (3)Specific procedures and instructions to cope with bioterrorism have been made into manuals so as to enhance the working-level response capabilities. Next, the analysis on the ROK's bioterrorism response system has been performed in various categories, including the legislation system, task role distribution, cooperative relations, and resource application. It turned out that the ROK's legislation basis is relatively weak and it lacks the apparatus to integrate the bioterrorism response activities on the national level. The shortage of the adequate response facilities and resources, as well as the poor management of manpower have also emerged as problems that hinder the effective CT implementations. Through an analytical and comparative study of the U.S. and the ROK systems, this paper presents several ways to ameliorate improve the current system in the ROK as follows: (1)establish the anti-terrorism law, which would be the basic legal basis for the bioterrorism-related matters; and make revisions to the disaster-related legislation, relevant to bioterrorism response activities, (2)establish an integrated body that has a powerful authority to coordinate the relevant CT agencies; and converge the decentralized functions to maximize the overall response capacity, (3)install the laboratories with a high biosafety level and secure enough of the strategic medical stock-pile, (4)enhance the ability of the inexperienced response personnel by providing with a manual that has detailed instructions.

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Methodology of Selecting Criteria for Pedestrian only Street (차없는 거리 선정기준 수립을 위한 방법론 정립 연구)

  • Kim, Yoomi;Park, Jejin;Lee, Junyoung;Ha, Taejun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.867-879
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    • 2016
  • Since the 1970s, the region of its own pedestrian center and environmental pollution caused by exhaust gases have been reduced gradually in a continuous increase of the vehicle, school route the central business district, around the school, the sidewalk where the vehicle do not pass, facilities of minimum for the safety of pedestrians and systematic management of an area where an unspecified number and alleys impassable is insufficient. Recently, in response to the "Law for convenience enhancing safety and walking" is enforced in Korea, research on Pedestrian only Street has been actively about the government, the standard for calculating the weights of evaluation associated with it. it is a actuality, however, there are insufficient, evaluation for business promotion is being conducted evaluation polite manner by using, for example, scale residence time and purpose of the passengers as there is no car that has been carried out on a voluntary basis through the municipality have. In this study, by suggesting a method for the selection of the street without a car, make a survey by placing a purpose in the selection method presentation of the street with no car to be construction future, was researching. F.G.I (Focus Group Interview) survey, professors, staff in urban, traffic field of experts in order to present the weights for the evaluation of the Pedestrian only Street by using the evaluation index by type of Pedestrian only Street, was interviewed about the evaluation index for the conducted for professionals engaged in the engineering company, and randomly selected 200 peoples, weighted evaluation of the street with Pedestrian only Street was proposed. By classifying the items purpose and goals of the evaluation type by this by applying the weight, and present the weight of the detailed indicators each corresponding to each item, and scored on the basis of the result, in this paper it can be so that one methodology for the selection standard for the construction as Pedestrian only Street, and the weight of the evaluation of the type that has been derived, the selection and evaluation methods and then added to these criteria to settle careful study of the reference should be performed further.

Tourism and Cultural Landscape at the Tengger, East Java, Indonesia: The Implications for Ecotourism Planning (인도네시아 동자바의 텡거마을의 문화경관과 관광 -생태관광계획에 대한 영향-)

  • Hakim, Luchman;Hong, Sun-Kee;Kim, Jae-Eun;Nakagoshi, Nobukazu
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.207-220
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    • 2008
  • Tourism in the natural environment grows significantly and in many tropical countries it becomesthe important earning of the nations. Nevertheless, tourism impact to environment and cultural values has become the threats to the sustainability and competitiveness of such industry. Therefore, the appropriate planning and management of tourism destination sites where environmentally and culturally fragile are needed in order to increase economic benefits, sustain local culture and conserve environment in balance. The aims of the paper are to examine tourism practices, to determine socio-cultural and natural resources, and to assess local people perception to cultural landscape and its future tourism development in order to formulate the appropriate strategies to achieve sustainable tourism. A case study was carried out at Tengger highland, Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park(BTSNP) East Java. Official documents were gathered and interviews with several key persons had conducted to determine recent status of tourism, resources capital and the existence of local people. Semi-structured interviews and questionnaires were carried out at Tenggerese villages to explore local people perspectives to tourism development, culture preservation, and cultural landscape conservation issues. It is followed by descriptive analysis of vegetation to assess the recent status of environments based on vegetation information. Our findings reveals that tourism grows significantly at BTSNP, and Tengger Caldera as spiritual and cultural sites for local people become the centre for tourism activities. The abundance cultural and natural resources are the significant capital for sustainable tourism. Tenggerese argues that tourism should be planned to provide benefits to local people, preserve tradition and able to conserve nature in order to ensure the living sustainability of Tenggerese. The overall result of the study provide general feature of recent status of the cultural and natural resources as well as positive society perception in order to establish a strategy for sustainable tourism in cultural landscape.

An Embedding /Extracting Method of Audio Watermark Information for High Quality Stereo Music (고품질 스테레오 음악을 위한 오디오 워터마크 정보 삽입/추출 기술)

  • Bae, Kyungyul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 2018
  • Since the introduction of MP3 players, CD recordings have gradually been vanishing, and the music consuming environment of music users is shifting to mobile devices. The introduction of smart devices has increased the utilization of music through music playback, mass storage, and search functions that are integrated into smartphones and tablets. At the time of initial MP3 player supply, the bitrate of the compressed music contents generally was 128 Kbps. However, as increasing of the demand for high quality music, sound quality of 384 Kbps appeared. Recently, music content of FLAC (Free License Audio Codec) format using lossless compression method is becoming popular. The download service of many music sites in Korea has classified by unlimited download with technical protection and limited download without technical protection. Digital Rights Management (DRM) technology is used as a technical protection measure for unlimited download, but it can only be used with authenticated devices that have DRM installed. Even if music purchased by the user, it cannot be used by other devices. On the contrary, in the case of music that is limited in quantity but not technically protected, there is no way to enforce anyone who distributes it, and in the case of high quality music such as FLAC, the loss is greater. In this paper, the author proposes an audio watermarking technology for copyright protection of high quality stereo music. Two kinds of information, "Copyright" and "Copy_free", are generated by using the turbo code. The two watermarks are composed of 9 bytes (72 bits). If turbo code is applied for error correction, the amount of information to be inserted as 222 bits increases. The 222-bit watermark was expanded to 1024 bits to be robust against additional errors and finally used as a watermark to insert into stereo music. Turbo code is a way to recover raw data if the damaged amount is less than 15% even if part of the code is damaged due to attack of watermarked content. It can be extended to 1024 bits or it can find 222 bits from some damaged contents by increasing the probability, the watermark itself has made it more resistant to attack. The proposed algorithm uses quantization in DCT so that watermark can be detected efficiently and SNR can be improved when stereo music is converted into mono. As a result, on average SNR exceeded 40dB, resulting in sound quality improvements of over 10dB over traditional quantization methods. This is a very significant result because it means relatively 10 times improvement in sound quality. In addition, the sample length required for extracting the watermark can be extracted sufficiently if the length is shorter than 1 second, and the watermark can be completely extracted from music samples of less than one second in all of the MP3 compression having a bit rate of 128 Kbps. The conventional quantization method can extract the watermark with a length of only 1/10 compared to the case where the sampling of the 10-second length largely fails to extract the watermark. In this study, since the length of the watermark embedded into music is 72 bits, it provides sufficient capacity to embed necessary information for music. It is enough bits to identify the music distributed all over the world. 272 can identify $4*10^{21}$, so it can be used as an identifier and it can be used for copyright protection of high quality music service. The proposed algorithm can be used not only for high quality audio but also for development of watermarking algorithm in multimedia such as UHD (Ultra High Definition) TV and high-resolution image. In addition, with the development of digital devices, users are demanding high quality music in the music industry, and artificial intelligence assistant is coming along with high quality music and streaming service. The results of this study can be used to protect the rights of copyright holders in these industries.

Applicability of UAV in Urban Thermal Environment Analysis (도시 내 열환경 분석에서 무인항공기의 활용가능성)

  • Kang, Da-In;Moon, Ho-Gyeong;Sung, Sun-Yong;Cha, Jae-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.52-61
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    • 2018
  • Urban heat islands occur due to increases in the extent of artificial surfaces such as concrete, asphalt and high-rise buildings. In this regard, research into the use of satellite thermal infrared images for thermal environment analysis of urban areas is being carried out. However, such analysis of the characteristics of individual land cover with low-resolution satellite images suffers from limitations because land cover patterns in urban areas are complicated. Recently, UAV has been widely used, which can compensate for this limitation as it is able to acquire high-resolution images. In this paper, the accuracy of UAV infrared images is verified and the applicability of UAV in urban thermal environment analysis is examined by comparing the results with land surface temperatures from Landsat 8 thermal images. The results show a high positive correlation of temperature values at 0.95, and no statistically significant difference between the two groups. Comparisons of land surface temperature according to land cover showed that the largest difference observed was $4.63^{\circ}C$ in the Used area, and UAV images with small cell units reflected various surface temperatures. Furthermore, it was possible to analyze the surface temperatures of various green spaces such as wetlands and street tree areas, which can lower surface temperatures in urban areas, with street tree shadows reducing surface temperatures by about $4-6^{\circ}C$. UAV can easily and rapidly measure the surface temperature of urban areas and is able to analyze various types of green spaces. Thus, this is an effective tool for thermal environment analysis in urban areas to aid in the design or management of urban green spaces, as it can allow for land cover and the effects of the various green spaces.

Comparative Evaluation of Neighborhood Parks in Korea and China based on the Place Attachment Model (장소애착 모델에 근거한 한국·중국 근린공원의 비교평가)

  • Yang, Lei;Lee, Shiyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2017
  • In this study of visitor place attachment to parks, Scannel and Gilford considered the dimensions of place attachment, and proposed the theoretical framework of PPP(Place, Person, Process) that should be systematically studied from the perspective of person, place and psychological processes. According to Scannel's theoretical basis, this paper puts forward the hypothesis of a structure model of place attachment. In the model, the five independent variables of people, places, cognition, emotion, and behavior have influenced the dependent variable of place attachment. The questionnaire was conducted on 18 neighborhood parks in Kunming, China, and the residents of the 5 neighborhood parks in Daejeon, South Korea. A total of 1,645 valid samples of the questionnaire survey were collected. Through confirmatory factor analysis(CFA) results of the inspection of the various elements, it was shown that the reliabilities of 6 latent variables, such as people, places, cognition, affection, behavior and place attachment, which were composed with the observed variables(30 observed variables in Daejeon, 19 observed variables in Kunming), were all above 0.7 and the data were fit for this study. The hypothesis test results found that the physical environment of the neighborhood parks such as a comfortable environment, pleasant road and convenient facilities would increase the rate of visitors coming back. From the park management perspective, to increase the amount of visitors to the park, the park should increase visibility, provide more organized, varied activities and meetings, or special exhibitions according to the particular characteristics of the individual park, to increase awareness of the park. From the park visitors' psychological perspective, visitors are seeking to enjoy the park facilities and environment not only to bring physical relaxation, but also to bring about a psychological cure. With the commonality of attachment structure between the two countries, to improve the place attachment of neighborhood park visitors, collecting regularly visitor feedback will facilitate the sustainable development of neighborhood park attachment.

Analysis of Household Textbooks for MiddleㆍHigh School in Colonial Age (식민지 시대 '가사교과서'에 관한 연구: 1930년대를 중심으로)

  • Jun Mi-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2004
  • This study analyzes the external forms of the household textbooks and also the contents of them used at girls' middleㆍhigh schools during the period of Japanese ruling over Korea. To this end, 8 household textbooks published from 1928 to 1937 were analyzed. The results of the study are summarized as follows. 1. The household subject had become the one of the most important subjects to girl students as the practical uses were emphasized in educational area during the period. As a result. the classes of the household were the second in hours, following the class of Japanese (the national language) to girl students. 2. The contents of the household textbooks were intended to contain 'the modern' and 'the newest'. The students were also suggested to apply the contents of the textbooks to real home life. Many pictures, photos and illustrations were included in household textbooks to help students to understand the contents of the subject. 3. The purposes of the household class were the reformation of the living conditions and home economics. 4. The external characteristics of the household textbooks during the period were as follows. - Written in Japanese vertically and the size of the textbook was A5 (150/210) with pulp paper of good quality - The type style of the body of the textbooks was Ming-style type- The sequent order of the textbooks was the outer cover, the title page, pictorial, introduction, table of contents, the body, appendix and the back cover. 5. The household textbooks consisted of the first volume and the second volume. The first volume contained clothing and textiles, food and nutrition and housing. Taking care of the aged. nursing. child care, household economy and home management were included in the second volume. 6. The household textbooks were designed to make women the housewives.

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