• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.887-892
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• 2022

Due to various reasons (normally financial constraints in developing countries), it becomes common to change of the business model from state-run projects to Private Investment Projects (Public Private Partnership) in the global railway businesses. However, due to the nature of railroads compared with other types of infrastructure such as roads and others, railway business require considerable construction cost and O&M cost through the business development, construction, and operation and management stages. Therefore, private investment railway projects, especially in developing countries, can be problematic in terms of the potential for uncertainty when return on investment cannot be guaranteed. In order to strengthen the competitiveness of domestic companies when entering overseas railroad PPP projects, this study proposes PPP-related risks and their countermeasures by reviewing global railroad trends and identifying Korea's weakness in managing international railroad projects.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.31-61
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value-such as minimum revenue guarantee-while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk-calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium-is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.4D
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• pp.585-594
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• 2011

A variety of PPP (Public-Private Partnerships) schemes including BOT, TOT (Transfer-Operate-Transfer), and divestiture has been employed in the Chinese water sector. Although the two latter emerging models have been implemented in their full applications lately, there has been no follow-up for identification of opportunities and challenges inherent in those schemes in relation to the market participation of foreign investor. This study undertakes in-depth analysis on the TOT and divestiture projects in the SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) matrix and measures the level of agreement on each SWOT through a survey among the Chinese water market experts. The findings can be used to support foreign investors in managing the weaknesses and threats that, unless properly managed, can be evolved into potential project risks, while fully benefiting from the strengths and opportunities of the two schemes.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.134-144
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• 2010

In China, the enhancement of water services has become the most crucial issue confronted with the rapid urbanization and industrialization process. A huge financial gap to meet the demand for water infrastructure and need for adopting advanced operation technology precipitated the rapid growth of PPP over the last 10 years. Diverse schemes of PPP such as TOT, Divestiture, and Management Contract and Lease have been practiced. Local governments and private investors/operator have adjusted their objectives and strategies to avoid potential pitfalls behind BOT projects in China. However, current academic research outcomes do not properly reflect important issues of BOT projects or related case studies in China. This limitation has brought in the lack of assessment of important risks and success factors required for the improvement of the body of risk management. In this regard, this study uses the market analysis method to identify major schemes of PPP water projects and conducts case studies on five PPP projects to identify key risk and success factors in association with each different scheme. It is expected that the risk and success factors identified from the cases will be used as reference to Korean companies which plan to enter the Chinese water market.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.360-373
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• 2017

The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.10
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• pp.2907-2916
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• 2009

PPPs(Public Private Partnerships) in Korea was introduced in 1990s, which mainly used for providing transportation facilities such as railroad and high-way. Since 2005, a service delivery type PPPs, in other words BTL(Build Transfer Lease) has been implemented, which focused on social infra-structure including school, military housing, and sewage facilities. According to previous literature, efficient risk evaluation and management is the key factor for successful PPPs in the UK and Australia. However, Korea doesn't have proper risk evaluation system for PPP type project. In this paper, we explore and analyze risk evaluation system of PPPs in Korea and other countries. Also, we apply empirical methodology used in the UK to a BTL project and set up a new PSC(Public Sector Comparator) with risk evaluation.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.427-435
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• 2017

Korea's overseas construction awards reached US $750 bn for more than 50 years since it first entered the market in 1966. In particular, the company won US $540 bn over 10 years from 2007, achieving 72% of the total contracts. However, in recent two years, awarded amounts have decreased by 40% each year. The most significant decline is due to the impact of international oil prices, which have plummeted since end of 2014, as oil-producing nations, which are Korea's major target countries, are struggling to cancel or postpone infrastructure orders. In order to lessen the impact of raw material price fluctuations, the recent trend is that even countries with relatively loose government financing conditions are rapidly changing their ordering methods to investment development forms such as PPP. The Korean government and companies have been already preparing for this for several years, but they are still not doing so well. The main reason is the lack of understanding about the investment development type project, especially financing methods and the aggravated fear of exposing it to various risks due to the characteristics of the development project, which takes a long time to collect the investment. In this paper, I propose a more systematic solution to financial process and risk management, which is recognized as a obstructive factor for Korean companies, in line with the recent government-led establishment of overseas infrastructure development support organizations. I would like to serve as a investment guide.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.421-436
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• 2016

Public-Private-Partnerships tend to be committed high project development cost and recover the cost through future revenue during the operation period. In general, long-term concession can bring on more revenue to private investors, but short-term concession less revenue due to the short recovering opportunities. The concession period is usually determined by government in advance or by the private sectors's proposal although it is a very crucial factor for the PPPs. Accurate traffic forecasting should be most important in planing and evaluating the operation period in that the forecasted traffic determines the project revenue with user fees in PPPs. In this regards, governments and the private investors are required to consider the traffic forecast risk when determining concession period. This study proposed a model for the optimal concession period in the PPPs transportation projects. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to find out the optimal concession period while traffic forecast uncertainty is considered as a project risk under the expected return of the private sector. The simulation results showed that the optimal concession periods are 17 years and 21 years at 5.5% and 7% discount level, respectively. This study result can be applied for the private investors and/or any other concerned decision makers for PPPs projects to set up a more resonable concession period.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.3D
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• pp.381-389
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• 2009

Korean government is investing 1.8 billion won on infrastructure and investment on PPP projects constitutes 16.3%. This phenomenon is to promote private investment as well as lessening government burdens of public budgeting. However, the only criterion to be considered is government financial status in selecting public or private highway investment projects. So systematic decision support model is required in choosing public or private highway investment projects. So, this paper suggests a systematic decision support model for deciding public or private highway investment at the early stage of project planning. Furthermore, this paper identifies key decision variables with respect to economic, politic, project management criterions based on the related literatures and feedbacks from experts. This paper analyzed 30 cases of government investment and PPP projects and got the survey result from highway specialists. As a result, this paper presents an interval with respect to economic criteria using mean and standard deviation and a logistic regression equation which can predict the possibility of PPP project. Through this study, decision maker of central or local government can decide public or PPP highway project more systematically and reasonably.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.5D
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• pp.695-703
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• 2008

China water market has huge potential for increased use of BOT mode and one of the most attractive markets of doing business. However, the current China water BOT market shows that many foreign companies are retreating from the market while Chinese water companies fast growing. From the view no domestic companies have track records in China BOT water market, the research identified twenty market access barriers in terms of construction laws, regulations, BOT-related policy and the recent market situation. These are evaluated based on interview results with 10 professionals direct or indirect having a China water BOT experience. All the factors are found to be highly influential to foreign company's decision on the market participation. Among those, no fixed return policy and low water price, difficulty in water price adjustment and approval, and no government guarantees, all directly related to the project viability and under the control of government, were the most critical factors, implying government's role is the key in increasing the market competition by attracting more foreign participation on the market. In addition, new construction law regulating foreign EPC contractor's construction work, namely Decree 113, and requirement of applying competitive bidding in selecting EPC contractor in a BOT project are also considered signigicant barriers on foreign participation, which contradicts international norm and therefore necessitates an adjustment on current decision process in domestic companies.