• Title/Summary/Keyword: POISSON

Search Result 2,060, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways (고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.101-116
    • /
    • 2012
  • Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

Effects of Temperature and Water Pressure on the Material Properties of Granite & Limestone from Gagok Mine (온도와 수압이 가곡광산 화강암과 석회암의 물성에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun;Baek, Young-Jun;Jo, Young-Do
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.33-40
    • /
    • 2011
  • This study focuses on having a temperature and water pressure effects on the change of material properties of rocks. Granite and limestone specimens from Gagok Mine were thermally treated with predetermined temperatures of 200, 300, 400, 500, 600 and $700^{\circ}C$ (excepting $700^{\circ}C$ for limestone) to estimate the reduction of material properties of rocks caused by heat. Specific gravity, effective porosity, elastic wave velocity, uniaxial compressive strength, Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio for pre-heated specimens were measured. With increasing temperature, material properties of both rock specimens change sequentially. Significant changes of specific gravity, effective porosity and elastic wave porosity occur above $400^{\circ}C$ for granite and $300^{\circ}C$ for limestone. Changes of uniaxial compressive strength, Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio seem to be similar to those of physical properties. GSI of 500, 600 and $700^{\circ}C$ specimens inferred by using uniaxial compressive strength and Young's modulus of preheated granite specimens is found to be 81, 66 and 58 each. In case of pre-heated limestone specimens of 400, 500 and $600^{\circ}C$, the corresponding GSI is 76, 71 and 65 each. 500, 600 and $700^{\circ}C$ granite specimens and 400, 500 and $600^{\circ}C$ limestone specimens were pressurized to 7.5 MPa and their effective porosity, elastic wave velocity, uniaxial compressive strength and Young's modulus were measured. The average value of material properties (mentioned above) of 500, 600 and $700^{\circ}C$ granite specimens under water pressure compared with material properties of non-pressurized pre-heated specimens exhibits the reduction of 7.6, 11.3 and 14.9%, respectively. In case of 400, 500 and $600^{\circ}C$ limestone specimens under water pressure, the average value of material properties decreases by 8.2, 13.8 and 21.9%, respectively.

A Study on the Factors Affecting Asbestos Exposure Level from Asbestos Abatement in Building Demolition Sites (석면 해체·제거시 공기 중 노출수준과 영향요인)

  • Kim, Ji-Yeong;Lee, Song-Kwon;Lee, Jeong Hee;Lim, Mu Heok;Kang, Sungwook;Phee, Young Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.8-15
    • /
    • 2009
  • This study was examined to find out asbestos exposure level the factors which affected the level at asbestos abatement sites. We visited a total of thirteen building demolition sites(3 apartments, 3 schools, 4 stores, and 3 houses) were visited to collect samples and related data from August to November, 2006. The results of this study were as follows 1. The results of an analysis of bulk samples to identify types of asbestos at the asbestos abatement sites showed that the kinds of the asbestos detected were chrysotile by 50.0%, were tremolite by 2.6%, and were the contents of chrysotile by 3 to 20%. 2. The geometric mean concentration of asbestos was 0.007 f/cc(range 0.001-0.34 f/cc) and its geometric standard deviation was 5.83. Of the samples, however, 12 exceeded the Korean Occupational Exposure Limit(0.1f/cc). 3. Of the materials, textile material had the highest concentration with geometric mean of 0.016 f/cc. When asbestos-containing materials were removed using T type tools, the geometric mean concentration of asbestos was 0.061 f/cc. The level by this method was much higher than by other removal methods. In analysis by the type of building, the geometric mean concentration of asbestos in stores was 0.042 f/cc and was higher than in other buildings. 4. The Poisson regression analysis was applied to find out the factors that affect the airborne asbestos concentration. As a result of the analysis, removal using a T type tool was the most important factor affecting the asbestos concentration(p<0.01). In conclusion, the airborne asbestos concentration(geometric mean) in asbestos abatement sites was 0.007 f/cc(0.001~0.34 f/cc), and 12(14.6%) of all samples were over the 0.1 f/cc. These results showed that asbestos abatement workers have been exposed to the high level of airborne asbestos because they have not been keeping asbestos removal rule. In accordance with increases of the number of building demolition sites, the better government regulation on asbestos abatement methods should be made and be performed well at building demolition sites.

Reliable Evaluation of Dynamic Ground Properties from Cross-hole Seismic Test using Spying-loaded Lateral Impact Source (스프링식 횡방항 발진 크로스홀 탄성파 시험을 통한 지반 동적 특성의 합리적 산정)

  • Sun, Chang-Guk;Mok, Young-Jin;Chung, Choong-Ki;Kim, Myoung-Mo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.10 no.4 s.50
    • /
    • pp.1-13
    • /
    • 2006
  • Soil and rock dynamic properties such as shear wave velocity $(V_s)$, compressional wave velocity $(V_p)$ and corresponding Poisson's ratio (v) are very important geotechnical parameters in predicting deformational behavior of structures as well as practicing seismic design and performance evaluation. In an effort to measure the parameter efficiently and accurately, various bore-hole seismic testing techniques have been, thus, developed and used during past several decades. In this study, cross-hole seismic testing technique which is known as the most reliable seismic method was adopted for obtaining geotechnical dynamic properties. To perform successfully the cross-hole test for rock as well as soil layers regardless of the ground water level, spring-loaded source which impact laterally a subsurface ground in vertical bore-hole was developed and applied at three study areas, which contain four sites composed of two existing port sites and two new LNG storage facility sites. The geotechnical dynamic properties such as $V_s,\;V_p$ and v with depth from the soil surface to the engineering and seismic bedrock were efficiently determined from the laterally impacted cross-hole seismic tests at study sites, and were provided as the fundamental parameters for the seismic performance evaluation of the existing ports and the seismic design of the LNG storage facilities.

An Analysis of Factors Influencing on Temple Foods (사찰음식에 대한 수요영향요인 분석 - 템플스테이 참가자를 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Yong-Moon;Park, Ki-Oh
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.240-253
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to predict factors influencing participant demand for the temple stays and to help find alternatives for temple stay marketing strategies. Specifically, the study sought to examine input variables on the visit frequency of temple visitors who partook in temple food. Research subjects were temple stay participants with experience with temple food. Through convenience sampling method, 300 self-administered questionnaires were distributed to participants at 4 temple stays in Seoul. Of the 278 questionnaires collected, 232 (83%) were used for research analysis. Given that the requirement that proper model for analysing the collected data be applied, the Truncated Negative Binomial(TNB) Poisson model, which is useful for analysing count data that are truncated at '0' and overcrowded with a certain value, was selected fort his study. Study results found that, for temple stay food revitalization, the most crucial item for temple food proponents to recognize is natural food ingredients. The degree of affection was higher among respondents over 40 years of groups and with incomes over 40 million won or more than others. In addition, unmarried and male were higher than married and female, and the Christian population in the temple food demand higher impact than Shamanism community. This match should be a priority to establish an in-depth public relations policy of targeted marketing of consumers according to various demographic characteristics. Active and aggressive efforts to expand food inspection are required to promote the healthy image of the temple food to the fragmentation of consumer marketing hierarchy.

The Comparative Study of NHPP Software Reliability Model Based on Exponential and Inverse Exponential Distribution (지수 및 역지수 분포를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 무한고장 신뢰도 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.133-140
    • /
    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, we were proposed the reliability model with the exponential and inverse exponential distribution, which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of efficient model, were employed. Analysis of failure, using real data set for the sake of proposing the exponential and inverse exponential distribution, was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with the exponential and inverse exponential distribution property. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the inverse exponential distribution model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 80% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

State-based Peridynamic Modeling for Dynamic Fracture of Plane Stress (평면응력 문제의 상태 기반 페리다이나믹 동적파괴 해석 모델링)

  • Ha, Youn Doh
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.301-307
    • /
    • 2015
  • A bond-based peridynamic model has been shown to be capable of analyzing many of dynamic brittle fracture phenomena. However, there have been issued limitations on handling constitutive models of various materials. Especially, it assumes bonds act independently of each other, so that Poisson's ratio for 3D model is fixed as 1/4 as well as taking only account the bond stretching results in a volume change not a shear change. In this paper a state-based peridynamic model of dynamic brittle fracture is presented. The state-based peridynamic model is a generalized peridynamic model that is able to directly use a constitutive model from the standard theory. It permits the response of a material at a point to depend collectively on the deformation of all bonds connected to the point. Thus, the volume and shear changes of the material can be reproduced by the state-based peridynamic theory. For a linearly elastic solid, a plane stress model is introduced and the damage model suitable for the state-based peridynamic model is discussed. Through a convergence study under decreasing the peridynamic nonlocal region($\delta$-convergence), the dynamic fracture model is verified. It is also shown that the state-based peridynamic model is reliable for modeling dynamic crack propagatoin.

Numerical Analysis of Laterally Displacing Abutment in High Landfill Slope (고성토사면에 시공된 교대의 측방유동에 대한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Park, Min-Cheol;Jang, Seo-Yong;Shin, Baek-Chul;Han, Heui-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.27-39
    • /
    • 2012
  • This research is to propose the reinforcing method and design code for the lateral behaviors of the abutment displacement induced from the rainfall infiltration on high landfill slope. First, to make the proper numerical analysis, in-situ soil (weathered granite soil) was taken, and the variance of strength parameters according to water content variance was examined by undrained direct shear test, furthermore, other soil parameters were calculated from the standard penetration test such as elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio etc,. Those parameters were used to calculate the lateral behavior of abutment by finite element method and the member force of pile in high landfill slope according to rainfall infiltration . From the results, the shoe displacement on abutment was calculated as 8.98cm, which is 3 times bigger than the allowable displacement, 3cm. To reinforce it, several reinforcing methods were selected and analyzed such as reinforced retaining wall, soil surcharge, pile reinforcing (5m enlargement, 3-line arrangement, 5m enlargement and 3-line arrangement). In case of 5m enlarged and 3-line arrangement piles, the lateral behavior of shoe showed lower value(2.26 cm) than allowable displacement.

Amplitude Variation Analysis for Deep Sea Seismic Data in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea (동해 울릉분지 심해 탄성파 탐사자료 진폭변화분석)

  • Cheong, Snons;Kim, Youngjun;Kim, Byungyup;Koo, NamHyung;Lee, Ho-Young
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.163-170
    • /
    • 2013
  • The amplitude variation with offset of seismic data can detect fluids in the sediment and resolve the petrophysical properties of hydrocarbons in the subsurface. We analyzed and described the amplitude variation in deep sea seismic data obtained from the Ulleung Basin, East Sea. By inspecting seismic CDP-offset and CDP-angle gathers which show a bright reflection event, we decided a target zone for amplitude variation analysis. From the seismic angle gather at the middle of Ulleung Basin, we recognized amplitude increase or decrease versus offset on the intercept-gradient curve. Using the product attribute and Poisson's ratio change attribute computed in terms of intercept with gradient, the top and the base of gas saturated sediments were described. The area of amplitude variation suggestive of the presence of gas saturated sediments is shown at the depth of 3 s traveltime. Anomalous features of seismic amplitude in the Ulleung Basin were classified by the crossplot of intercept and gradient. The background trend of crossplot between intercept and gradient shows an inverse proportional relation that is common for wet sediments. Anomalous amplitudes of Class III fall into the first and the third quadrants on crossplots. We inferred regional gas/water saturated area with the horizontal dimension of 150 m in the Ulleung Basin by cross-section with respect to cross-plot anomaly.

The relationship between fatal occupational injury rate and socio-economic indicators in Korea (한국의 업무상 사망률과 사회경제적 지표와의 관련성)

  • Lee, Won-Cheol;Kim, Soo-Geun;Ahn, Hong-Yup;Yi, Kwan-Hyung;Lee, Eun-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.168-174
    • /
    • 2010
  • South Korea's industrial injuries are decreasing overall in the last 32 years. Nevertheless, the fatal occupational injury rate is still higher than in developed countries. This study was conducted to help prevention strategies of occupational injuries for the Republic of Korea. Fatal occupational injury rates were obtained from "Industrial Accident Analysis"of the Korean Ministry of Labor. Poisson regression was used to assess time trends. Socioeconomic indicators were obtained from the Korea Labor Institute and the Statistics Korea. Fatal occupational injury rates were adjusted by year, and Pearson correlation analysis was used to assess the relationship between the socio-economic indicators and occupational injuries. In 1975, fatal occupational injury rate was 54.8 per 100,000 workers. With somewhat up and down, it was decreased to 21.0 in 2006. An annual rate of change for the years 1975-2006 was - 1.83%, and for the years 2002-2006 was -5.02%. As economic growth rate, paricipation rate for the age less than 25 and hours of work per week or year increased, fatal occupational injury rate also increased. Conversely, as GDP per capita, paricipation rate or employment rate for female, paricipation rate for the age 25 or more, hourly compensation costs for production workers and services output as percent of GDP increased, fatal occupational injury rate decreased. By the development of safety techniques and the adoption of more legislative constraints, developed economy reduce occupational injuries. Conversely, economic growth may raise occupational injuries. Therefore, prevention strategies are needed to manage both of them. We need to make an effort to prevent occupational injuries due to not only sexual differences, but also job differences between male and female. Preventive strategies are needed to consider the characteristics of younger workers. Addition to wage, other appropriate variables for work condition should be considered together. Extending work hours is need to be regulated with systemic methods.