• Architectural research
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.49-57
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• 2019

Risk assessment during pre-construction phase is important due to the uncertainty of the risks that may exist in projects. Risk checklist is a method to systematically classify and organize the risks that have been experienced in the past, and to identify the risk factors that may be present in the future projects. In addition, risk value assessment based on checklists plays a key role in risk management, and various risk assessment researches have been conducted to carry out this systematically. However, previous approaches have limitations in common, this is because risk values are evaluated individually in risk checklists, which ignore interdependencies among risk factors and neglect the emergence of co-occurrence of risks. Hence, when multiple risk factors cooccur, they cannot be far off from the conventional method of summing the total risk value to establish the risk response strategy. Most of risk factors are interdependent and may have multiple effects if occurred than expected. In particular, specific cause can be overlapped if multiple risks co-occur, and this may result in overestimation of the risk response for the future project. Thus, the objective of this research is to propose a model to help decision makers to quantify the risk value reflecting the interdependency during the identification phase using existing risk checklist that is currently being practiced in actual construction projects. The proposed model will provide the guideline to support the prediction and identification of the interdependency of risks in practice. In addition, the better understanding and prediction of the exceeding risk response by co-occurring risks during the risk identification phase for decision makers.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.233-240
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• 2019

Open-hole tensile tests are usually performed to measure the tensile strengths of composites as they are an essential parameter for designing composite structures. However, correctly modeling the tensile test is extremely challenging as it involves various damages such as fiber and matrix damage, delamination, and debonding damage between the fiber and matrix. Therefore, a progressive damage model was developed in this study to estimate the in-plane failure and delamination between the fiber and matrix. The Hashin damage model and cohesive zone approach were used to model ply and delamination failures. The results of the present model were compared with previously published experimental and numerical findings. It was observed that neglecting delamination during finite element analysis led to overestimation of tensile strength.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.144-156
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• 2018

Level 3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is performed for the risk assessment that calculates radioactive material dispersion to the environment. This risk assessment is performed with a tool of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS2 or WinMACCS). For the off-site consequence analysis of multi-unit nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, the single location (Center Of Mass, COM) method has been usually adopted with the assumption that all the NPPs in the nuclear site are located at the same COM point. It was well known that this COM calculation can lead to underestimated or overestimated radionuclide concentration. In order to overcome this underestimation or overestimation of radionuclide concentrations in the COM method, Multiple Location (ML) method was developed in this study. The radionuclide concentrations for the individual NPPs are separately calculated, and they are summed at every location in the nuclear site by the post-processing of radionuclide concentrations that is based on two-dimensional Gaussian Plume equations. In order to demonstrate the efficiency of the ML method, radionuclide concentrations were calculated for the six-unit NPP site, radionuclide concentrations of the ML method were compared with those by COM method. This comparison was performed for conditions of constant weather, yearly weather in Korea, and four seasons, and the results were discussed. This new ML method (1) improves accuracy of radionuclide concentrations when multi-unit NPP accident occurs, (2) calculates realistic atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides under various weather conditions, and finally (3) supports off-site emergency plan optimization. It is recommended that this new method be applied to the risk assessment of multi-unit NPP accident. This new method drastically improves the accuracy of radionuclide concentrations at the locations adjacent to or very close to NPPs. This ML method has a great strength over the COM method when people live near nuclear site, since it provides accurate radionuclide concentrations or radiation doses.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.277-295
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• 2022

The global weather prediction model, Korean Integrated Model (KIM), has been in operation since April 2020 by the Korea Meteorological Administration. This study assessed the performance of heat waves (HWs) in Korea in 2020. Case experiments during 2018-2020 were conducted to support the reliability of assessment, and the factors which affect predictability of the HWs were analyzed. Simulated expansion and retreat of the Tibetan High and North Pacific High during the 2020 HW had a good agreement with the analysis. However, the model showed significant cold biases in the maximum surface temperature. It was found that the temperature bias was highly related to underestimation of downward shortwave radiation at surface, which was linked to cloudiness. KIM tended to overestimate nighttime clouds that delayed the dissipation of cloud in the morning, which affected the shortage of downward solar radiation. The vertical profiles of temperature and moisture showed that cold bias and trapped moisture in the lower atmosphere produce favorable conditions for cloud formation over the Yellow Sea, which affected overestimation of cloud in downwind land. Sensitivity test was performed to reduce model bias, which was done by modulating moisture mixing parameter in the boundary layer scheme. Results indicated that the daytime temperature errors were reduced by increase in surface solar irradiance with enhanced cloud dissipation. This study suggested that not only the synoptic features but also the accuracy of low-level temperature and moisture condition played an important role in predicting the maximum temperature during the HWs in medium-range forecasts.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.69-75
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• 2019

BACKGROUND: Measurement of electrical conductivity of saturated soil paste ($EC_e$) for assessment of soil salinity is time-consuming, and thus conversion of EC of 1:5 soil-water extract ($EC_{1:5}$) to $EC_e$ using a dilution factor may be of help to monitor salinity of huge number of soil samples. This study was conducted to evaluate the dilution factor for reclaimed tideland (RTL) soils of South Korea. METHODS AND RESULTS: Soil samples (n=40) were collected from four RTLs, and analyzed for $EC_{1:5}$, $EC_e$, and cation compositions of 1:5 soil-water extract. The dilution factor (8.70) was estimated by regression analysis between $EC_{1:5}$ and $EC_e$, and the obtained dilution factor was validated by applying to an independent data set (n=96) of $EC_{1:5}$ and $EC_e$. The $EC_e$ measured and predicted was strongly correlated ($r^2=0.74$, P<0.001), but $EC_e$ was overestimated by 16% particularly for the soils with high clay content and low sodium adsorption ratio (SAR). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that using the dilution factor to convert $EC_{1:5}$ to $EC_e$ is feasible method to monitor changes in the soil salinity of the study RTL. However, overestimation of $EC_e$ should be cautioned for the soils with high clay content and low SAR.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.75-98
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• 2021

This paper compares three statistical models that examine the relationship between national and provincespecific fertility rates. The three models are two of the regression models and a cointegration model. The regression model is by substituting Gompit transformation for the cumulative fertility rate by the average for ten years, and this model applies the raw data without transformation of the fertility data. A cointegration model can be considered when fitting the unstable time series of fertility rate in probability process. This paper proposes the following when it is intended to derive the relation of non-stationary fertility rate between the national and provinces. The cointegrated relationship between national and regional fertility rates is first derived. Furthermore, if this relationship is not significant, it is proposed to look at the national and regional fertility rate relationships with a regression model approach using raw data without transformation. Also, the regression model method of substituting Gompit transformation data resulted in an overestimation of fertility rates compared to other methods. Finally, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon and Gyeonggi province are expected to show a total fertility rate of 1.0 or less from 2025 to 2030, so an urgent and efficient policy to raise this level is needed.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.247-255
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• 2021

Individual passenger transfer information is not included in Seoul metropolitan subway Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data. Currently, basic data such as travel time and distance are allocated based on the TagIn terminal ID data records of AFC data. As such, knowledge of the actual path taken by passengers is constrained by the fact that transfers are not applied, resulting in overestimation of the transport index. This research proposes a method by which a transit path that connects the TagIn and TagOut terminal IDs in AFC data is determined and applied to the transit index. The method embodies the concept that a passenger's line of travel also accounts for transfers, and can be applied to the transit index. The path selection model for the passenger calculates the line of transit based on travel time minimization, with in-vehicle time, transfer walking time, and vehicle intervals all incorporated into the travel time. Since the proposed method can take into account estimated passenger movement trajectories, transport-related data of each subway organization included in the trajectories can be accurately explained. The research results in a calculation of 1.47 times the values recorded, and this can be evaluated directly in its ability to better represent the transportation policy index.

• Imaging Science in Dentistry
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.43-51
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• 2022

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of the Vectra M3 (3D Imaging System; Canfield Scientific, Parsippany, NJ, USA) in detecting chin asymmetry, and to assess whether the automatic markerless tracking function is reliable compared to manually plotting landmarks. Materials and Methods: Twenty subjects (18 females and 2 males) with a mean age of 42.5±10.5 years were included. Three-dimensional image acquisition was carried out on all subjects with simulated chin deviation in 4 stages (1-4 mm). The images were analyzed by 2 independent observers through manually plotting landmarks and by Vectra software auto-tracking mode. Repeated-measures analysis of variance and the Tukey post-hoc test were performed to evaluate the differences in mean measurements between the 2 operators and the software for measuring chin deviation in 4 stages. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated to estimate the intra- and inter-examiner reliability. Results: No significant difference was found between the accuracy of manually plotting landmarks between observers 1 and 2 and the auto-tracking mode (P=0.783 and P=0.999, respectively). The mean difference in detecting the degree of deviation according to the stage was <0.5 mm for all landmarks. Conclusion: The auto-tracking mode could be considered as reliable as manually plotted landmarks in detecting small chin deviations with the Vectra^® M3. The effect on the soft tissue when constructing a known dental movement yielded a small overestimation of the soft tissue movement compared to the dental movement (mean value<0.5 mm), which can be considered clinically non-significant.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.28-37
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• 2022

Obstacle Limitation Surface (OLS) is conceptual surface establishing the airspace around aerodromes to be maintained from obstacles to ensure safe aircraft operations. Despite advances in the technologies for aircraft, navigation systems and the development of new flight procedures, the criteria defining OLS have not been amended since its initial establishment, resulting in the overestimation of areas for height restriction. As there were requests to examine OLS at the 12th Air Navigation Conference and the 38th ICAO Assembly, the research on the OLS revision began in earnest and ICAO has proposed Obstacle Free Surface (OFS) and Obstacle Evaluation Surface (OES) as an alternative of the existing OLS. OFS is surfaces where obstacles shall not be permitted, and OES is ones where obstacles be evaluated with an aeronautical study and could be permitted under some conditions. The purpose of this study is to preemptively assess the efficiency and safety of OFS and OES by applying them to the second runway (15L/33R) of Incheon International Airport. The results show that OFS and OES are capable of serving the instrument flight procedure safely with a smaller obstacle clearance area compared to the existing OLS.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.11
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• pp.915-924
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• 2021

In this study, the probability of exceeding capacity for 4 check dams in Muju mountain region have been estimated. From the results, optimum design of check dam and safety according to wild fire have been discussed. Reliability model has been established by using MSDPM for calculating debris yield to estimate the probability of exceeding capacity of check dam. Probability of exceeding capacity for 4 check dams has been estimated according to maximum rainfall intensity of return periods (10year, 50year, 100year, and 200year). It was found that 1 check dam of Samga-ri basin and 1 check dam of Jeungsan-ri basin were designed by overestimation and 61% and 47% of capacity should be reduced, respectively. Furthermore, probability of exceeding capacity according to burned area has been estimated and compared. It was found that check dam of Sanga-ri basin is the weakest for the wild fire effect in this study area.