• 제목/요약/키워드: Ordered Logistic Regression Model

검색결과 19건 처리시간 0.025초

지방부 무신호교차로 교통사고의 영향요인 분석 및 통계적 모형 개발 (Analysis of Contributory Factors in Causing Crashes at Rural Unsignalized intersections Based on Statistical Modeling)

  • 박정순;오주택;오상진;김영준
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.123-134
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    • 2016
  • 교차로는 국가 도로체계에 있어서 작은 부분을 차지하고 있지만, 2014년 통계에 따르면 교차로 교통사고는 전체 교통사고의 약 44.3%를 차지하고 있다. 이에 신호교차로에 대한 연구는 지속적으로 수행되고 있는 반면에, 무신호교차로에 대한 연구는 아직도 미진한 상태이다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 지방부 무신호교차로 교통사고의 특성분석과 순서형 로지스틱 모형을 이용한 사고 심각도의 영향요인을 파악하는 것이다. 무신호교차로의 교통사고들은 대부분 주간시간에 측면직각 충돌에 발생하였으며 4지 무신호교차로의 교통사고가 3지 무신호교차로에 비해 약 1.53배 많이 발생하였다. 교통사고의 주요 원인들은 운전자의 안전운전불이행 및 교차로 통행방법 위반에 의해 발생한 것으로 나타났다. 사고 심각도 모형의 개발 결과, 지방부 무신호교차로의 2가지 형태(3-지, 4-지)와 3개의 모형식이 개발되었다. 주요 영향요인으로 교차로 시거 장애, 일평균교통량, 주야간시간대, 교차각, 중차량 비율, 교통법규위반 및 부도로 차로수 등이 선정되었다.

Public Reporting on the Quality Ratings of Nursing Homes in the Republic of Korea

  • Lee, Hyang Yuol;Shin, Juh Hyun
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제49권2호
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    • pp.161-170
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    • 2019
  • Background: Quality ratings could provide vital information to help people in choosing a nursing home. Purpose: This study investigated factors aligned with quality ratings of nursing homes. Methods: We employed a cross-sectional descriptive design to assess publicly available data on 1,354 nursing homes with 30 or more beds in the Republic of Korea. After excluding 289 nursing homes with no reported quality-evaluation ratings, we analyzed the 2015 data of 1,065 nursing homes. To prevent multicollinearity among independent variables, we carefully selected the final set of variables based on clinical and theoretical meaningfulness to direct nursing care. Quality, the ordinal outcome, was scored from 1 to 5 with a higher score indicating higher quality of the organization. We constructed a multivariate ordered logistic regression model. Results: Higher quality ratings of nursing homes was significantly related to the number of unoccupied beds (OR=0.99, p=.024), registered nurses (RNs) (OR=1.30, p=.003), qualified care workers (OR=1.03, p=.011), cognitive-improvement programs (OR=1.05, p=.024), and other programs for residents' activities (OR=1.09, p<.001). Conclusion: The number of RNs had the strongest influence on the publicly reported quality rating, while the rating of qualified care workers demonstrated little effect and that of nursing assistants had no effect. The number of RNs could be used as a crucial indicator for high-quality homes; more resident-engaging programs also demonstrated better quality of nursing home care.

사회자본과 신체활동 행위변화단계 (Social Capital and Stage of Change for Physical Activity in a Community Sample of Adults)

  • 김길용;김은미;배상수
    • 보건교육건강증진학회지
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.63-80
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    • 2009
  • Objectives: This study identified how personal characteristics, healthy behavior and social capital might influence on physical activity of adults. Methods: This study used data from the health survey of a city of Korea. We surveyed 1,000 adults sampled by stratified sampling methods from 67,889 households. Outcome variable was the stage of physical activity which was broken into 5 categories. Sociodemographic factors, healthy behavior, self-rated health status and social capital were used as control variables. Sociodemographic factors included age, sex, educational status, economic status measured by deprivation score, residential period within survey city. Social capital was measured by Integrated Questionnaire for the Measurement of Social Capital (SC-IQ). This study used chi-square test and ordered logistic regression models to examine the associations between independent variables and physical activity. Variables were added to the regression model in three groups using a hierarchical approach. Results: Physical activity was significantly more likely to become active if they have higher educational status, healthier behavior. Among the six dimensions of SC-IQ, only "groups and networks" that is structural dimensions of social capital and "trust and solidarity" that is cognitive dimensions of social capital were significantly related to physical activity of adults. We found that a person having higher density of membership and having larger size of networks showed the high possibility of active physical activity. A person having high solidarity was significantly associated with physical activity, but general trust was inversely related to physical activity. Output dimensions of social capital did not show significant relationship to physical activity. Conclusion: We found that social capital is useful concept to explain health behaviors like physical activity. However we must consider social, cultural and political context of the study to evaluate the effect of social capital to health status and health determinants and to capture the exact meaning of relationship between them. We suggest further researches to refine the concept of social capital and to explain the relationship of social capital to diverse health determinants.

취업남녀의 시간부족인식과 시간활용: 1999년과 2009년의 생활시간자료 비교 (A Study on Perceived Time Pressure and Time Use: Focusing on the Employed Men and Women in Korea by Using 1999 and 2009 Time Diary Data)

  • 차승은
    • 가족자원경영과 정책
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.131-151
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    • 2011
  • This study attempted to estimate the level of perceived lack of time in Korean society, to link it to time management and to identify the possible association that accounts for time shortage. I employed the gender perspective in order to reveal the dynamics and complexity of the perception of a lack of time in the population. The sample for the study was drawn from the 1999 and 2009 Korean time diary data collected by the Korean National Statistical Office. From the original data, I selected a sample of second shift families(men and women who are presently working and raising children) living in metropolitan areas(including Seoul and six major urban areas in Korea). The dependent variable was time pressure measured by a single-item question on a four-point likert scale. The results of the study showed that working mothers perceived a greater time shortage as compared to working fathers. The time use pattern showed change during the periods, indicating that people worked fewer hours in paid labor and enjoyed more leisure hours and personal care hours. However, on average, people seemed to have experienced a greater time lack in 2009 as compared to 1999. The results from the ordered logistic regression model revealed that even though there were similarities in the impact of relevant factors, men's perception of a lack of time was more closely linked with their work role and social status, while for women, this perception was influenced by work and family duties. This indicates that Korean working mothers and fathers are facing a double jeopardy of time shortage in terms of combining their work and family roles. As a result, the level of time pressure by gender is converging toward a "never enough" phase. These findings generated policy implications and detailed suggestions.

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고등학생의 건강 불균등 요인별 분해 (Decomposition of Health Inequality in High School Students)

  • 안병철;정효지
    • 한국학교보건학회지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: With economic development and prolonged longevity, the level of health and health disparities have became growing concerns for individual and society as well. Since youth's health status are influenced by households' socioeconomic status and associated with heath status in later stage of life, assessing health inequality in the youth is a significant step toward lessening health disparity and promoting health. We measured health inequality in high school students and decomposed it into health factors. Methods: The subjects included 3,787 high school students of 12th graders from the Korea Education and Employment Panel (KEEP) in 2004. True health status was assumed as a latent variable and estimated by ordered logistic regression model. The predicted health was used as a measure of individual health after rPSraling to [0,1] interval. Total health inequality was then measured by Gini coefficient and was decomposed into health factors. Results: Health inequality in high school students was observed. Of total health inequality, 44% was explained by biological factors such as body mass index (BMI) (32.5%) and gender (13.5%). Behavioral factors such as smoking, drinking, physical activity, hours in bed and hours of computer ussge added to 11.7%. Household income and work experiences explained 5.6% and 8.8%, respectively. School satisfaction explained 14.6%. Other school related factors such as self-assessed achievement and experience of being bullied accounted for 15.5%. Conclusion: Among the health factors, biological factor was the most important contributor in health disparity. Other factors such as health behaviors, socioeconomic factors, school satisfaction and school related factors exhibited somewhat similar magnitude. For policy purposes, it is recommended to look into modifiable factors depending BM, gender and school surroundings.

암 환자가 느끼는 경제적 도움에 대한 필요와 이에 영향을 미치는 요인 (Cancer patients' need for financial assistance and its related factors)

  • 김윤구;박재현;박종혁
    • 보건행정학회지
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.58-73
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    • 2010
  • Background : Cancer is a disease that not only places a significant burden on patients clinically but also requires significant expense for diagnosis and treatment. Although the cancer coverage of health insurance has recently been expended, the need for financial assistance among cancer patients and their families is still expected to be significant. In this study, cancer patients' need for financial assistance in Korea was examined and its influence factors were analyzed. Methods : Target study subjects were those who are over 18 years of age and were diagnosed with cancer more than four months prior at the National Cancer Center and 9 Regional Cancer Centers in Korea during the period from July to August of 2008. Quarter sampling was conducted according to the ratio of the type of each cancer. A face to face interview survey was conducted. A total of 2,661 cancer patients finished the survey. Medical charts were reviewed in order to obtain the cancer type and SEER stage of cancer patients. An ordered logistic regression model was used to examine the level of need for financial assistance according to the demographical, clinical, and socio-economic variables of cancer patients. Result : The percentage of cancer patients who needed financial assistance was 69.0%, and 36.9% needed significant financial assistance. The need for financial assistance was perceived to be greater in males, younger age group, low income group, low education group, medical aid recipients, those who were diagnosed recently, those with a low level of quality of life measured through EQ5D, and those with decreased income after cancer diagnosis. Conclusion : In spite of the current policy to increase health insurance coverage, the majority of cancer patients and their families in Korea still need financial assistance due to cancer. In particular, there were more vulnerable groups, such as the low income, or low education group. In the future, policies that focus on the disadvantaged, which strengthen social security, should be considered for achievement of a substantially better quality of life for cancer patients and their families.

시간제 근로 및 성별에 따른 개인의 삶의 만족도 분석 - 「서울서베이 도시정책지표조사」를 이용하여 - (The Effect of Part-time Work on the Satisfaction of Personal Life - Using Seoul Survey -)

  • 김재원;임업
    • 지역연구
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    • 제35권2호
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2019
  • 우리나라 연평균 근로시간은 OECD 최상위 수준이다. 장시간 근로는 근로자의 생산성을 저해하고 일과 가정의 양립을 방해하는 등 삶의 질을 하락시키는 요인이 된다. 최근 정부는 시간제 일자리를 증가하는 등 유연근로제를 장려하고 있지만, 양질의 시간제 일자리가 부족한 현실이다. 시간제 근로는 일과 개인의 삶을 병행할 수 있게 하지만, 동시에 열악한 근로환경과 부정적인 사회적 시선을 보유하여 개인의 삶의 만족도에 미치는 영향이 전일제 근로와는 다를 것으로 예상된다. 특히 여성의 경우 노동시장에서 성별 격차를 경험하고 있으며, 일과 가정의 병행이라는 측면에서 시간제 근로가 삶의 만족도에 미치는 영향이 남성과 다르게 나타날 수 있다. 본 연구는 2017년도 "서울서베이 도시정책지표조사" 자료를 활용하여 근무유형-성별의 교차효과가 개인의 삶의 만족도에 미치는 영향을 순서형 로지스틱 회귀모형을 통해 실증적으로 분석하였다. 분석결과에 따르면, 삶의 만족도는 전일제 여성, 전일제 남성, 시간제 여성, 시간제 남성 순으로 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 시간제 여성 근로자가 낮은 삶의 만족도를 가질 확률이 가장 높은 반면, 높은 삶의 만족도를 가질 확률은 가장 낮게 나타났다. 대조적으로 전일제 남성 근로자는 낮은 삶의 만족도를 가질 확률이 가장 낮은 반면, 높은 삶의 만족도를 가질 확률은 가장 높은 것으로 나타났다.

성별에 따른 노인의 행복감에 영향을 미치는 여가 요인 연구 (The Factors of Leisure Affecting Happiness of the Elderly by Sex in Korea)

  • 박창제
    • 한국노년학
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    • 제40권1호
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    • pp.163-178
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구의 목적은 성별로 65세 이상 노인의 행복감에 영향을 미치는 여가 요인들이 무엇인지 분석한 다음, 이를 바탕으로 정책적 함의를 논의하는 데 있다. 이를 위하여 한국문화관광교육원이 2016년도에 조사한 「2016년 국민여가활동조사」 자료에서 65세 이상 남성 노인 891명, 여성 노인 970명, 총 1,861명을 추출하여 분석대상으로 삼았다. 분석 방식은 순서형 로짓모형을 사용하여 회귀분석하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같이 요약된다. 첫째, 4가지로 분류된 여가활동 유형 선택에서 남성 노인과 여성 노인이 상당한 차이를 보였다. 둘째, 통제변수 중 가계소득, 거주 지역, 동호회 참여는 노인의 행복에 미치는 영향이 성별로 달랐고, 자원봉사활동은 노인의 행복에 미치는 영향이 성별로 차이가 없었다. 셋째, 여가활동 유형은 남성 노인과 여성 노인 모두에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았다. 넷째, 여가비용이 남성 노인의 행복감에 아주 유의하게 정적인 영향을 미쳤고, 유의성이 높지는 않았지만, 여성 노인의 행복감에는 정적인 영향을 미쳤다. 다섯째, 일보다는 여가에 집중하는 경우가 남성 노인과 여성 노인의 행복감 모두에 아주 유의하게 정적인 영향을 미쳤다. 여섯째, 여가생활만족도는 남성 노인과 여성 노인의 행복감 모두에 아주 유의하게 정적인 영향을 미쳤다.

다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가 (Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines)

  • 안현철;김경재
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.