• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.191-197
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• 2017

As individual opinions are expressed and discussed through SNS, SNS is used as a new basis to estimate the direction of public opinion. This change also appears in election. So many voters state their views through SNS, so that candidates utilize it as a new space for communication. In this paper, positive mention in SNS were collected and analysed in the course of the election of Korean 20th Congressman, to understand how the mention on election in SNS affects the result of election. This result was compared with the traditional survey on public opinion, to find out which one more corresponds to the result. In conclusion, mention in SNS coincide more with the result of elelction than the traditional survey.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.57-74
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• 2019

Researchers usually examine the quality of survey data by several conventional measures of reliability and validity. However, those measures are mainly designed to examine the quality of an individual measurement, rather than the quality of a data set as a whole. There is a relative lack of methods for evaluation of the overall data quality. This paper attempts to fill this gap. We propose using interviewers' assessments as one of criteria for evaluating the overall data quality. Interviewers are the ones who literally conduct and thus directly observe interviews. Taiwan's Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS) have required interviewers to assess how trustworthy the responses of each of their interviewees are, and to provide several descriptions about the process and environment of the interviews. We use this information to evaluate the data quality of TEDS surveys and compare it with the results from the conventional test-retest method. The findings are that the interviewer assessment is a fair indicator of the overall reliability of attitudinal questions but not a good indicator when factual questions are examined. Regarding the evaluation of data validity, more data is required to see whether or not interviewers' assessment is informative in terms of data quality.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.845-854
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• 2008

Survey reports of election opinions consist of numerous cross-tabulations between socio-demographic variables and political opinions including preferred candidates. Since socio-demographic variables are related each other, duplicate interpretations arise. The aim of this study is twofold: The first is to separate the effects of socio variables such as education, occupation and income from the effects of demographic variables such as region, sex and age. The second is the visualization of multiple cross-tabulations in low-dimensional space by extended doubling technique of correspondence analysis. Survey researchers may get some help from this study to present their survey results more lucidly and visually.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.196-227
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• 2015

The premise of the intentional model of split-ticket voting is that some voters split their tickets simply because they prefer divided government and believe in constant "checks and balances." This article examines whether this premise stands firm in an emerging democracy like Taiwan. That is, by using survey data in Taiwan, we explore whether one's attitude toward divided or unified government is "real." We hypothesize that a citizen's attitude toward "checks and balances" is subject to change, and conditional on whether her preferred party is in power. Specifically, we speculate that a citizen would tend to hold the balancing perspective or favor divided government, if her preferred party is in opposition. However, if her preferred party becomes the ruling party, she would be more likely to oppose (hold) the balancing (non-balancing) perspective or favor unified government. We then utilize panel survey data embedded in Taiwan's Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to verify our hypothesis.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.5-40
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• 2021

In the 4.7 by-election in 2021, the ruling Democratic Party suffered a record devastating defeat, breaking the trend of a post-intermediate evaluation confirmed in the recent election. Why did the Democratic Party lose by a large margin unlike the recent election trend? In order to find answers to these questions, this study analyzes the voting behavior of individual voters based on the voter consciousness survey data conducted after the 4.7 by-election, while examining the background and causes of such voter choices. As a result of the study, in the 4.7 by-election, as confirmed in previous studies, public opinion against the ruling government was strong, and negative elections were held. However, if we look at the process and results of this by-election in more detail, we can see that it is different from the general by-election. In the past by-elections, the government judgement was due to the passive participation of the ruling party-oriented voters in elections with low political weight, or the active judgement psychology that was maximized in situations where the political burden was less. However, in this by-election, on the contrary, in an election with a high political weight, the active judgement psychology of the Democratic Party and non-partisan voters had an effect on strengthening the midterm evaluation character of the election. In addition, it can be seen that the gathering of conservative voters who support the opposition also had a strong influence on the reinforcement of the midterm evaluation character of the election.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.107-144
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• 2023

In competitive political contexts, sustaining power is the ultimate goal for political parties. Nominating celebrity politicians can be a double-edged sword for parent brands in attracting votes and influencing voting intention. This study contributes to the moderating role of brand affinity towards celebrity politicians. It considers celebrities' cognitive perceived benefits and voting intention relationship in a multiparty parliamentarian election. A cross-sectional survey with a stratified proportional random sampling technique in fifteen Lebanese districts ensured a representative sample. One thousand two hundred sixty-nine responses were found eligible for analysis. Findings indicate that brand affinity positively moderates the negative relationship between perceived benefits and voting intention. This study offers a new understanding of celebrity politicians' implementation strategy and campaign management and considers the contribution of the affective intelligence theory. It provides implications, limitations, and promising directions for future research on celebrity politicians.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.199-219
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• 2018

With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2873-2881
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• 2018

It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.32
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• pp.49-73
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• 2006

During the past decades, public opinion polls have become an ubiquitous tool for probing the complexity of people's beliefs and attitudes on a wide variety of issues. Especially since the late 1970s, the use of polls by news organizations has increased dramatically. Along with the proliferation of traditional polls, in the past few years pollsters and news organizations have come to recognize the advantages of online polls. Increasingly there has been more effort to take the pulse of the public through the Internet. With the Internet's rapid growth during the past years, advocates of online polling often emphasize the relative advantages over traditional polls. Researchers from Harris Black International Ltd., for example, argue that "Internet polling is less expensive and faster and offers higher response rates than telephone surveys." Moreover, since many of the newer online polls draw respondents from large databases of registered Internet users, results of online polls have become more balanced. A series of Harris Black online polls conducted during the 1998 gubernatorial and senatorial elections, for example, has accurately projected the winners in 21 of the 22 races it tracked. Many researchers, however, severely criticize online polls for not being representative of the larger population. Despite the often enormous number of participants, Internet users who participate in online polls tend to be younger, better educated and more affluent than the general population. As Traugott pointed out, the people polled in Internet surveys are a "self selected" group, and thus "have volunteered to be part of the test sample, which could mean they are more comfortable with technology, more informed about news and events ... than Americans who aren't online." The fact that users of online polls are self selected and demographically very different from Americans who have no access to the Internet is likely to influence the estimates of what the majority of people think about social or political issues. One of the goals of this study is therefore to analyze whether people perceive traditional and online public opinion polls differently. While most people might not differentiate sufficiently between traditional random sample polls and non representative online polls, some audiences might perceive online polls as more useful and representative. Since most online polls allow some form of direct participation, mostly in the form of an instant vote by mouse click, and often present their findings based on huge numbers of respondents, consumers of these polls might perceive them as more accurate, representative or reliable than traditional random sample polls. If that is true, perceptions of public opinion in society could be significantly distorted for those who rely on or participate in online polls. In addition to investigating how people perceive random sample and online polls, this study focuses on the perceived impact of public opinion polls. Similar to these past studies, which focused on how public opinion polls can influence the perception of mass opinion, this study will analyze how people perceive the effects of polls on themselves and other people. This interest springs from prior studies of the "third person effect," which have found that people often tend to perceive that persuasive communications exert a stronger influence on others than on themselves. While most studies concerned with the political effects of public opinion polls show that exit polls and early reporting of election returns have only weak or no effects on the outcome of election campaigns, some empirical findings suggest that exposure to polls can move people's opinions both toward and away from perceived majority opinion. Thus, if people indeed believe that polls influence others more than themselves, perceptions of majority opinion could be significantly altered because people might anticipate that others will react more strongly to poll results.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.655-665
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• 2018

Social network services (SNS) have become the most common tool for the communication of public and private opinions as well as public issues; consequently, one may form or drive public opinions to advocate by spreading positive content using SNS. Controversy for survey data based opinion poll accuracy continues in relation to response rate or sampling methodology. This study suggests complementary measures that additionally consider the sentiment analysis results of unstructured data on a social network by data crawling and sentiment dictionary adjustment process. The suggested method shows the improvement of prediction accuracy by decreasing error rates.