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Knowledge Management Strategy of a Franchise Business : The Case of a Paris Baguette Bakery (프랜차이즈 기업의 지식경영 전략 : 파리바게뜨 사례를 중심으로)

  • Cho, Joon-Sang;Kim, Bo-Yong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.39-53
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    • 2012
  • It is widely known that knowledge management plays a facilitating role that contributes to upgrading organizational performance. Knowledge management systems (KMS), especially, support the knowledge management process including the sharing, creating, and using of knowledge within a company, and maximize the value of knowledge resources within an organization. Despite this widely held belief, there are few studies that describe how companies actually develop, share, and practice their knowledge. Companies in the domestic small franchise sector, which are in the early stages in terms of knowledge management, need to improve their KMS to manage their franchisees effectively. From this perspective, this study uses a qualitative approach to explore the actual process of knowledge management implementation. This article presents a case study of PB (Paris Baguette) company, which is the first to build a KMS in the franchise industry. The study was able to confirm the following facts through the analysis of target companies. First, the chief executive's support is a critical success factor and this support can increase the participation of organization members. Second, it is important to build a process and culture that actively creates and leverages information in knowledge management activities. The organizational learning culture should be one where the creation, learning, and sharing of new knowledge is developed continuously. Third, a horizontal network organization is needed in order to make relationships within the organization more close-knit. Fourth, in order to connect the diverse processes such as knowledge acquisition, storage, and utilization of knowledge management activities, information technology (IT) capabilities are essential. Indeed, IT can be a powerful tool for improving the quality of work and maximizing the spread and use of knowledge. However, during the construction of an intranet based KMS, research is required to ensure that the most efficient system is implemented. Finally, proper evaluation and compensation are important success factors. In order to develop knowledge workers, an appropriate program of promotion and compensation should be established. Also, building members' confidence in the benefits of knowledge management should be an ongoing activity. The company developed its original KMS to achieve a flexible and proactive organization, and a new KMS to improve organizational and personal capabilities. The PB case shows that there are differences between participants perceptions and actual performance in managing knowledge; that knowledge management is not a matter of formality but a paradigm that assures the sharing of knowledge; and that IT boosts communication skills, thus creating a mutual relationship to enhance the flow of knowledge and information between people. Knowledge management for building organizational capabilities can be successful when considering its focus and ways to increase its acceptance. This study suggests guidelines for major factors that corporate executives of domestic franchises should consider to improve knowledge management and the higher operating activities that can be used.

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A 13b 100MS/s 0.70㎟ 45nm CMOS ADC for IF-Domain Signal Processing Systems (IF 대역 신호처리 시스템 응용을 위한 13비트 100MS/s 0.70㎟ 45nm CMOS ADC)

  • Park, Jun-Sang;An, Tai-Ji;Ahn, Gil-Cho;Lee, Mun-Kyo;Go, Min-Ho;Lee, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.46-55
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    • 2016
  • This work proposes a 13b 100MS/s 45nm CMOS ADC with a high dynamic performance for IF-domain high-speed signal processing systems based on a four-step pipeline architecture to optimize operating specifications. The SHA employs a wideband high-speed sampling network properly to process high-frequency input signals exceeding a sampling frequency. The SHA and MDACs adopt a two-stage amplifier with a gain-boosting technique to obtain the required high DC gain and the wide signal-swing range, while the amplifier and bias circuits use the same unit-size devices repeatedly to minimize device mismatch. Furthermore, a separate analog power supply voltage for on-chip current and voltage references minimizes performance degradation caused by the undesired noise and interference from adjacent functional blocks during high-speed operation. The proposed ADC occupies an active die area of $0.70mm^2$, based on various process-insensitive layout techniques to minimize the physical process imperfection effects. The prototype ADC in a 45nm CMOS demonstrates a measured DNL and INL within 0.77LSB and 1.57LSB, with a maximum SNDR and SFDR of 64.2dB and 78.4dB at 100MS/s, respectively. The ADC is implemented with long-channel devices rather than minimum channel-length devices available in this CMOS technology to process a wide input range of $2.0V_{PP}$ for the required system and to obtain a high dynamic performance at IF-domain input signal bands. The ADC consumes 425.0mW with a single analog voltage of 2.5V and two digital voltages of 2.5V and 1.1V.

This Study of the Arms Used in the Three Kingdoms (삼국시대(三國時代) 병기체제(兵器體制)의 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, sung-tae
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.34
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    • pp.20-58
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    • 2001
  • In order to unravel the characteristics of arms used in the 'Three Kingdoms,' Kokuryo, Silla and Paikje. the classification and the developing procedures of the arms should be first discussed. At first, the basic arms of the soldiers of Three Kingdoms were iron swords, iron spearheads, and bows. During that period, swords attached a ring pommel were commonly used. But after 5A. D. a sword with a decoration pommel appeared. Infantry generally used iron spearheads. From the late 4A. D. the long spearheads were broadly used in cavalry battles. In the late 6A. D. infantry mainly used long spearheads, and this resulted in the foundation of long spearheads units. There were two kinds of bows: Short Bow whose arch is small and Long Bow whose arch is long. It is known that the Short Bow was widely used in Kokuryo and Paikje up to 5A. D. In the early era, infantry used Long Bow, yet it was vastly used after 6A. D. when a castle's strategical value was great and defending a castle was. significant. Above mentioned, as basic combat weapons, iron spearhead and bow were fundamental. In particular, the spearhead was the essential weapon to a soldier. Yet, arrow gun and hook-shape cutters were important weapons. Especially, after 6A.D., when a castle became strategically pivotal in military, the arrow gun became the important weapon. This resulted in the foundation of arrow gun units. Hook-shape cutters were used to snatch horsemen or to climb up to fall the castle. Yet, the cutter was not the Three Kingodoms' basic weapon. In addition, the three stages of arms development in the Three Kingdoms are formation stage, development stage, and settlement stage. The formation stage was the period when premitive military unit appeared in the Three Kingdoms. It ranged from 1B. C. to the mid 3A. D. At that time according to regions. there were two weapon systems operating: North area including Kokuryo and the northern part of Paikje and South area including Silla, Kaya and the southern part of Paikje. ln North area a sword with a ring attached at the end of the holder, iron spear with neck and mid-size flat holder and iron arrowhead with an extension to fix, were used. In this period, during a war calvary units were mostly used and their weapon systems seemed possibly to succeed in that of Kochosun. In the development stage, when LoLang's influence on surroundings became weak, Koguryo, Paikjae and Silla had directly contacted each other. In the late 3A.D. to the early 6A.D., Silla achieved a drastic improvement in weapon system. This was the period when Kokuryo played a leading role in arms race. Kokuryo's arms manufacturing techniques passed onto Silla, Kaya and Paikje. In combat strategy a joint operation between infantry and calvary prevailed even if their military tactics were different. In a calvary battle heavily armed horsemen played import roles at this period. The horsemen and even horses were heavily guarded with iron armors. After all, the appearance of fully armed horsemen implies the very need of powerful destructive forces in weapon system. At that time, basic weapons were a big sword with a ring attached at the end of the holder, swallow's tail-shape spear with neck, and iron spearhead with neck and an extension. The settlement stage began at the mid 6A.D., when it was the revolutionary period in the arms development history. Of course, actual proofs and picture documents were not sufficient enough to penetrate full scale of the weapon system. But, according to historical circumstances and historic records, it is very certain that this period was the peak in arms development. In this period special military units, such as infantry-calvary companies, Archery units and Long spear units, that executed particular duties with special weapons, were founded. This became the characteristics of the settlement stage.

Effects of Exhaust Gas Recirculation on Power and Thermal Efficiency of Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition in Different Load Conditions with a 6-L Engine (6 L급 압축착화 기관에서 천연가스-디젤 반응성 조정 연소 시 부하에 따른 배기 재순환율이 출력 및 열효율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Sunyoup;Lee, Seok-Hwan;Kim, Chang-Gi;Lee, Jeong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2020
  • Reactivity controlled compression ignition (RCCI) combustion is one of dual-fuel combustion systems which can be constructed by early diesel injection during the compression stroke to improve premixing between diesel and air. As a result, RCCI combustion promises low nitrogen oxides (NOx) and smoke emissions comparing to those of general dual-fuel combustion. For this combustion system, to meet the intensified emission regulations without emission after-treatment systems, exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is necessary to reduce combustion temperature with lean premixed mixture condition. However, since EGR is supplied from the front of turbocharger system, intake pressure and the amount of fresh air supplementation are decreased as increasing EGR rate. For this reason, the effect of various EGR rates on the brake power and thermal efficiency of natural gas/diesel RCCI combustion under two different operating conditions in a 6 L compression ignition engine. Varying EGR rate would influence on the combustion characteristic and boosting condition simultaneously. For the 1,200/29 kW and 1,800 rpm/(lower than) 90 kW conditions, NOx and smoke emissions were controlled lower than the emission regulation of 'Tier-4 final' and the maximum in-cylinder pressure was 160 bar for the indurance of engine system. The results showed that under 1,200 rpm/29 kW condition, there were no changes in brake power and thermal efficiency. On the other hand, under 1,800 rpm condition, brake power and thermal efficieny were decreased from 90 to 65 kW and from 37 to 33 % respectively, because of deceasing intake pressure (from 2.3 to 1.8 bar). Therefore, it is better to supply EGR from the rear of compressor, i.e. low pressure EGR (LP-EGR) system, comparing to high pressure EGR (HP-EGR) for the improvement of RCCI power and thermal efficiency.

Traffic Operation Strategy for the Mixed Traffic Flow on Autonomous Vehicle Pilot Zone: Focusing on Pangyo Zero City (자율주행차 혼재 시 시범운행지구 교통운영전략 수립: 판교제로시티를 중심으로)

  • Donghyun Lim;Woosuk Kim;Jongho Kim;Hyungjoo Kim
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.172-191
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    • 2023
  • This study was undertaken to strategize the mixed traffic operation of autonomous vehicles in the pilot zone. This was achieved by analyzing the changes expected when autonomous vehicles are mixed in the autonomous vehicle pilot zone. Although finding a safe and efficient traffic operation strategy is required for the pilot zone to serve as a test bed for autonomous vehicles, there is no available operation strategy based on the mixture of autonomous vehicles. In order to presents a traffic operation strategies for each period of autonomous vehicle introduction, traffic efficiency and safety analysis was performed according to the autonomous vehicle market percentage rate. Based on the analysis results, the introduction stage was divided into introductory stage, transition period, and stable period based on the autonomous vehicle market share of 30% and 70%. This study presents the following traffic operation strategies. Considering the traffic flow operation strategy, we suggest the advancement of the existing road infrastructure at the introductory stage, and operating an autonomous driving lane and the mileage system during the transition period. We also propose expanding the operation of autonomous driving lanes and easing the speed limit during the stable period. In the traffic safety strategy, we present a manual and legal system for responding to autonomous vehicle accidents in the introductory stage, an analysis of the causes of autonomous vehicle accidents and the implementation of preventive policies in the transition period, and the advancement of the autonomous system and the reinforcement of the security system during the stable period. Through the traffic operation strategy presented in this study, we foresee the possibility of preemptively responding to the changes of traffic flow and traffic safety expected due to the mixture of autonomous vehicles in the autonomous vehicle pilot zone in the future.

Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

Analysis of dose reduction of surrounding patients in Portable X-ray (Portable X-ray 검사 시 주변 환자 피폭선량 감소 방안 연구)

  • Choe, Deayeon;Ko, Seongjin;Kang, Sesik;Kim, Changsoo;Kim, Junghoon;Kim, Donghyun;Choe, Seokyoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2013
  • Nowadays, the medical system towards patients changes into the medical services. As the human rights are improved and the capitalism is enlarged, the rights and needs of patients are gradually increasing. Also, based on this change, several systems in hospitals are revised according to the convenience and needs of patients. Thus, the cases of mobile portable among examinations are getting augmented. Because the number of mobile portable examinations in patient's room, intensive care unit, operating room and recovery room increases, neighboring patients are unnecessarily exposed to radiation so that the examination is legally regulated. Hospitals have to specify that "In case that the examination is taken out of the operating room, emergency room or intensive care units, the portable medical X-ray protective blocks should be set" in accordance with the standards of radiation protective facility in diagnostic radiological system. Some keep this regulation well, but mostly they do not keep. In this study, we shielded around the Collimator where the radiation is detected and then checked the change of dose regarding that of angles in portable tube and collimator before and after shielding. Moreover, we tried to figure out the effects of shielding on dose according to the distance change between patients' beds. As a result, the neighboring areas around the collimator are affected by the shielding. After shielding, the radiation is blocked 20% more than doing nothing. When doing the portable examination, the exposure doses are increased $0^{\circ}C$, $90^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$ in order. At the time when the angle is set, the change of doses around the collimator decline after shielding. In addition, the exposure doses related to the distance of beds are less at 1m than 0.5m. In consideration of the shielding effects, putting the beds as far as possible is the best way to block the radiation, which is close to 100%. Next thing is shielding the collimator and its effect is about 20%, and it is more or less 10% by controlling the angles. When taking the portable examination, it is better to keep the patients and guardians far enough away to reduce the exposure doses. However, in case that the bed is fixed and the patient cannot move, it is suggested to shield around the collimator. Furthermore, $90^{\circ}C$ of collimator and tube is recommended. If it is not possible, the examination should be taken at $0^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$ is better to be disallowed. The radiation-related workers should be aware of above results, and apply them to themselves in practice. Also, it is recommended to carry out researches and try hard to figure out the ways of reducing the exposure doses and shielding the radiation effectively.

Current and Future Operation of Menu Management in the School Foodservices of Chungbuk (1) - Menu Planning - (충북지역 학교급식 영양(교)사의 식단관리 운영실태 및 개선방안(1) - 식단계획 -)

  • Ahn, Yoon-Ju;Lee, Young-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.41 no.8
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    • pp.1118-1133
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    • 2012
  • This research aimed to suggest an efficient improvement plan for school food services by investigating the operating situation and recognition of menu management in school food services for school food service dietitians (and nutrition teachers) in Chungbuk. A total of 328 questionnaires were distributed to school food service dietitians (and nutrition teachers) in Chungbuk by e-mail in September, 2010. A total of 265 questionnaires (80.8%) were used for the analysis. The highest allocation of nutrients and calories per day in school food services was 1:1.5:1.5 (breakfast : lunch : dinner) (38.5%). The reasoning for applying a flexible allocation of nutrients and calories per day was 'considering the ratio of students who do not eat breakfast' (59.2%). And the way to apply the flexible allocation for nutrients and calories per day was 'by agreement from the school operating committee in arbitrary data without situation surveys' (86 respondents, 49.4%), and 'by agreement from the school operating committee in analysis data through situation surveys' (80 respondents, 46.0%). The operational method of standardized recipes was 'cooking management site of national education information systems' (87.5%) and the items included in standardized recipes were menu name, food material name, portion size, cooking method, nutrition analysis, and critical control point in HACCP. The main reason for not utilizing all items of a cooking management site of the national education information system was 'no big trouble in menu management even though it is used partly (29.1%). In addition, the highest use of standardized recipe was for 'maintaining consistency of food production quantity' (74.0%).

A Contemplation on Measures to Advance Logistics Centers (물류센터 선진화를 위한 발전 방안에 대한 소고)

  • Sun, Il-Suck;Lee, Won-Dong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2011
  • As the world becomes more globalized, business competition becomes fiercer, while consumers' needs for less expensive quality products are on the increase. Business operations make an effort to secure a competitive edge in costs and services, and the logistics industry, that is, the industry operating the storing and transporting of goods, once thought to be an expense, begins to be considered as the third cash cow, a source of new income. Logistics centers are central to storage, loading and unloading of deliveries, packaging operations, and dispensing goods' information. As hubs for various deliveries, they also serve as a core infrastructure to smoothly coordinate manufacturing and selling, using varied information and operation systems. Logistics centers are increasingly on the rise as centers of business supply activities, growing beyond their previous role of primarily storing goods. They are no longer just facilities; they have become logistics strongholds that encompass various features from demand forecast to the regulation of supply, manufacturing, and sales by realizing SCM, taking into account marketability and the operation of service and products. However, despite these changes in logistics operations, some centers have been unable to shed their past roles as warehouses. For the continuous development of logistics centers, various measures would be needed, including a revision of current supporting policies, formulating effective management plans, and establishing systematic standards for founding, managing, and controlling logistics centers. To this end, the research explored previous studies on the use and effectiveness of logistics centers. From a theoretical perspective, an evaluation of the overall introduction, purposes, and transitions in the use of logistics centers found issues to ponder and suggested measures to promote and further advance logistics centers. First, a fact-finding survey to establish demand forecast and standardization is needed. As logistics newspapers predicted that after 2012 supply would exceed demand, causing rents to fall, the business environment for logistics centers has faltered. However, since there is a shortage of fact-finding surveys regarding actual demand for domestic logistic centers, it is hard to predict what the future holds for this industry. Accordingly, the first priority should be to get to the essence of the current market situation by conducting accurate domestic and international fact-finding surveys. Based on those, management and evaluation indicators should be developed to build the foundation for the consistent advancement of logistics centers. Second, many policies for logistics centers should be revised or developed. Above all, a guideline for fair trade between a shipper and a commercial logistics center should be enacted. Since there are no standards for fair trade between them, rampant unfair trades according to market practices have brought chaos to market orders, and now the logistics industry is confronting its own difficulties. Therefore, unfair trade cases that currently plague logistics centers should be gathered by the industry and fair trade guidelines should be established and implemented. In addition, restrictive employment regulations for foreign workers should be eased, and logistics centers should be charged industry rates for the use of electricity. Third, various measures should be taken to improve the management environment. First, we need to find out how to activate value-added logistics. Because the traditional purpose of logistics centers was storage and loading/unloading of goods, their profitability had a limit, and the need arose to find a new angle to create a value added service. Logistic centers have been perceived as support for a company's storage, manufacturing, and sales needs, not as creators of profits. The center's role in the company's economics has been lowering costs. However, as the logistics' management environment spiraled, along with its storage purpose, developing a new feature of profit creation should be a desirable goal, and to achieve that, value added logistics should be promoted. Logistics centers can also be improved through cost estimation. In the meantime, they have achieved some strides in facility development but have still fallen behind in others, particularly in management functioning. Lax management has been rampant because the industry has not developed a concept of cost estimation. The centers have since made an effort toward unification, standardization, and informatization while realizing cost reductions by establishing systems for effective management, but it has been hard to produce profits. Thus, there is an urgent need to estimate costs by determining a basic cost range for each division of work at logistics centers. This undertaking can be the first step to improving the ineffective aspects of how they operate. Ongoing research and constant efforts have been made to improve the level of effectiveness in the manufacturing industry, but studies on resource management in logistics centers are hardly enough. Thus, a plan to calculate the optimal level of resources necessary to operate a logistics center should be developed and implemented in management behavior, for example, by standardizing the hours of operation. If logistics centers, shippers, related trade groups, academic figures, and other experts could launch a committee to work with the government and maintain an ongoing relationship, the constraint and cooperation among members would help lead to coherent development plans for logistics centers. If the government continues its efforts to provide financial support, nurture professional workers, and maintain safety management, we can anticipate the continuous advancement of logistics centers.

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The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.