• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.93-98
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• 2018

본 연구는 아시아의 대표적인 신흥경제국으로 원유수입국이며 소규모 개방경제인 한국을 대상으로 유가쇼크의 거시경제 효과를 충격반응함수를 추정하여 분석하였다는데 의의가 있다. 유가쇼크는 대부분 공급 측면의 요인에 의해 발생하는 것으로 알려져 왔으나, 본 연구는 유가쇼크를 수요와 공급 측면에서 세 가지로 구분하여 그 거시경제 효과를 분석하였다. 한국의 경우에 있어, 유가쇼크는 쇼크의 요인에 따라 상이한 반응을 보였다. 원유공급쇼크는 산업 활동과 금리를 하락시키며, 원유 자체 수요쇼크는 다른 요인에 의한 유가쇼크보다 상대적으로 금리를 가장 크게 상승시키는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 경제호황에 의한 원유수요쇼크는 다른 요인에 의한 유가쇼크보다 물가와 환율을 상대적으로 가장 크게 상승시키는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 정책당국은 유가쇼크의 요인에 따라 상이한 정책 대응을 할 필요가 있을 것이다.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제8권7호
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• pp.7-12
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• 2017

Purpose - This research examines the short-run and long-run effect of external shocks (oil price and exchange rate) on domestic food price in Indonesia. Research design, data, and methodology - Three variables are used in this research. The variables are food price index, Rupiah's exchange rate of Indonesia, and crude oil price from 1998 until 2015 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results - The increasing of oil price and the depreciation of Rupiah's rate push the domestic food price in long-run, but do not impact significantly in short- term. The response of food price to oil prices shock and exchange rate shock are positive and persistent throughout the entire sample period. The exchange rate and oil price shocks have a small proportion explaining for the fluctuations of food price index but increasing over time. Conclusions - The policymaker should concern on solving the problem of oil price increase and depreciation of exchange rate on Indonesia's food price as they are important factors that can affect the price stability. The government should not rely on food imports because the price is strongly influenced by the movements in the exchange rate.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제11권10호
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• pp.73-79
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• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2015년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.253-255
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• 2015

Crude oil is the world's most actively traded commodity and also one of the most significant resources in the world. The impact of oil price volatility has great influences on macroeconomic activities. This presentation is to review and analyze the oil price fluctuation and to examine the effects especially on the offshore oil production and thereafter to look over the challenges and opportunities in this sector focusing on the petroleum logistics.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.17-29
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• 1982

This paper is concerned with the application of the intervention analysis to the wholesale Trice index of Korea. There were four big shocks on the WPI during the last two decades, which were caused by the series of oil price hikes and changes in the foreign exchange rate. Intervention analysis of these multiple shocks revealed the nature and causalities of each shocks to the general price level of Korea.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.5-17
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• 2017

The main objective of the study is to measure the vulnerability of Indonesia's financial system stability in response to external shocks, including from regional economies namely three biggest Indonesia major trading partners (China, the U.S and Japan) and other external factors (oil price and the federal funds rate). Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Orthogonalized Impulse Response Function (OIRF) with quarterly data over the period Q4 2002 - Q1 2016, results confirm that, 1) oil price response has the largest effect to Indonesia financial stability system and the effect period is the longest compared to others, represented by NPL and IHSG; 2) among those three economies, only China's economic growth has significantly positive effect to Indonesia financial stability system. Based on the findings it is better for the authorities to: 1) Diversify international trade commodities by decreasing share of oil, gas, and mining export and boosting other potential sectors such as manufacture, and fisheries; 2) Ensure the survival of Indonesia large coal exporter companies without neglecting burden of national budget; and 3) Create buffer for demand shock from specific countries by diversifying and increasing share of trading from other countries particularly from ASEAN member states.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.105-118
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• 2008

There are many debates on the topic of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Through the repeated processes of conformations and contractions on the subject, two main issues are developed; one is how to define and drive oil shocks from oil prices, and the other is how to specify an econometric model to reflect the asymmetric relations between oil prices and output growth. The study, thus, introduces the unobserved component model to pick up the oil shocks and a first-order Markov switching model to reflect the asymmetric features. We finally employ unique oil shock variables from the stochastic trend components of oil prices and adapt four lags of the mean growth Markov Switching model. The results indicate that oil shocks exert more impact to recessionary state than expansionary state and the supply-side oil shocks are more persistent and significant than the demand-side shocks.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.679-708
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• 2015

현재 한국은 천연가스 수요의 99%를 LNG 형태로 해외로부터 수입하고 있으며, 80% 이상을 유가에 연동된 가격 공식을 갖고 있는 장기 LNG 계약을 통해 도입하고 있다. LNG 도입 가격 추정은 다양한 천연가스 이해 관계자들에게 중요한 정보를 제공하게 됨에도 불구하고 아직까지 활용할 수 있는 계량 모형이나 실증 분석이 이루어지지 않았다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 한국 LNG 도입 가격의 특성을 반영하여 국제 유가와 장기적인 균형 관계(공적분 관계)가 있는지와 그러한 장기 균형 관계에 구조적 변화가 있었는지를 실증적으로 분석하고, 한국의 LNG 가격 추정 모형으로 구조변화를 고려한 조건부 확장 오차수정모형을 구축하였다. 최종적으로 선정된 조건부 확장 오차수정모형에 따르면, 국제 유가의 충격은 과거와는 다른 양상으로 한국의 LNG 가격에 비선형적으로 파급된다.

• 수산해양교육연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.442-451
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of the rapid rise in oil prices on fisheries economy. Even though fishery oils are tax exemption items, such increase in oil prices put a great amount of pressure on Korean fishing operations. Because basically the recent oil shock is externally given, Korean fisheries themselves have little capacity to cope with the disruption of economic environments. The research results turned out that Korean fisheries are extremely vulnerable(or fragile) to external shocks. In this regard, government support issues of oil costs are in the center of debate. It is widely recognized that direct/indirect government financial supports or subsidies would result in economic inefficiency in expense of equity. However, there are second best theories which may justify government intervention into the markets. This second best theory is translated into the constitutional law that instructs the government to protect and promote the primary industries including fisheries, agriculture, and midium/small-scale enterprises. It is apparent that the constitutional law would provide the government with a variety of policy instruments such as more active buy-back programs, tax exemptions and technological development to deal with fisheries economic hardship due to the external pressure such as high oil prices and international fishery orders.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.475-483
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• 1998

Structural changes in an economy system bring about serious problems in establishing economic policies. The boom of middle-east export, the oil shock, and the recent dollar crisis in Korean economy are such examples. Hence, it is necessary to identify and estimate those structural changes. This study focuses on an output and price and analyzes structural changes in aggregate demand and supply. The aggregate demand and supply structures are described by conventional dynamic simultaneous equations model, where each structural change is represented by dummy variables and estimated by the proposed Bayesian method. By applying this model to Korean output and price, structural changes in the aggregate demand and supply are analyzed.