• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.167-198
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper aims to compare and analyze the co-movements and information spillover effects between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets during the COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crises. Design/methodology - The DCC-GARCH model is used in the co-movements analysis. In contrast, the BEKK-GARCH model is used to evaluate information spillover effects. The statistical data used is from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2022. It comprises the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data and daily international commodity futures prices of natural gas, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel, soybean, and wheat. Findings - The results of the co-movement analysis were as follows: First, it was shown that the co-movements between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets were temporarily strengthened when the COVID-19 and 2008 financial crises occurred. Second, the South Korean stock markets were shown to have high correlations with the copper, nickel, and crude oil futures markets. The results of the information spillover effects analysis are as follows: First, before the 2008 financial crisis, four commodity futures markets (natural gas, gold, copper, and wheat) were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets. In contrast, seven commodity futures markets, except for the natural gas futures market, were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets after the financial crisis. Second, before the COVID-19 crisis, most international commodity futures markets, excluding natural gas and crude oil future markets, were shown to have led the South Korean stock markets in one direction. Third, it was revealed that after the COVID-19 crisis, the connections between the South Korean stock markets and the international commodity futures markets, except for natural gas, crude oil, and gold, were completely severed. Originality/value - Useful information for portfolio strategy establishment can be provided to investors through the results of this study. In addition, it is judged that financial policy authorities can utilize the results as data for efficient regulation of the financial market and policy establishment.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.51-62
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• 2019

This study predicts the future world seaborne trade volume with econometrics methods using 23-year time series data provided by Clarksons. For this purpose, this study uses simple regression analysis, exponential smoothing method and seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR Model). This study is meaningful in that it predicts worldwide total seaborne trade volume and seaborne traffic in four major items (container, bulk, crude oil, and LNG) from 2019 to 2023 as there are few prior studies that predict future seaborne traffic using recent data. It is expected that more useful references can be provided to trade related workers if the analysis period was increased and additional variables could be included in future studies.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.127-145
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• 2009

With increase in oil demand owing to economic growth in Northeast Asia, the establishment of an oil hub in Korea is recently considered by policy and academic circles. This paper aims to suggest strategic schemes on the establishment of Korea's oil hub in Northeast Asia by comparing Korea's conditions as an oil logistics hub with Singapore which has been an oil hub in East Asia until recent year. Quantitative and qualitative analysis methods were employed in order to examine the competitiveness of Korea's oil hub. This research concludes that Korea is very competitive as an oil logistics hub in Northeast Asia, but so much improvements for realizing the project are necessary such as expansion of storage facilities for oil, institutional instruments for facilitating oil logistics and trading and preparation for incentive schemes on foreign investments in oil and its related industries.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.277-296
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• 2017

More than 95% of imports and exports in the World are being transported by vessels. In other words, marine transportation accounts for a large portion of share in the world trade. The purpose of this study is to analyze factors of seaborne trade volume according to items affecting on the world economy. This study conducted a linear regression analysis between seaborne trade volume and the world economy (world GDP) to estimate the correlation between them. Panel data analysis and random effects model analysis have been applied to examine the effect of seaborne trade volume. For this study, the seaborne trade volume is categorized into 10 items, and estimated how much global GDP will be affected when the trade volume changes. In addition, the granger causality test was conducted to verify the relationship between seaborne trade volume and the world GDP. As a result, seaborne trade volume and the world GDP were mutually influenced each other. However, seaborne trade volume affects the world economy more significantly. The items affecting world economic growth include petroleum products, crude oil, chemical products, and so on. The estimated value of the coefficients of petroleum products, crude oil and chemical products were 1.014, 1.013 and 1.010, respectively. The estimated value 1.014 of petroleum products means that the growth rate is 1.014 times higher than the current world GDP growth rate when the seaborne trade volume of petroleum products increased by one unit Lastly, this study examines the seaborne trade volume of 10 categories and then verifies whether the growth rate of world GDP will increase when the volume of seaborne trade increased. This study is expected to provide policy-makers with useful information about formulating policies related to international trade.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.165-191
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• 2023

The US and EU have imposed energy sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sector in response to the Ukraine crisis. One of the key measures is to cut oil and gas imports from Russia. The US and EU are both the senders of sanctions against Russia. However, there is a fundamental difference between them. While the US is the net oil and gas exporter, most EU member states are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. If the US and other major oil and gas exporting countries can replace Russia in the EU energy market, the effectiveness of energy sanctions against Russia can be guaranteed. Our result shows that it is difficult for the major oil and gas exporters to fully replace Russia in the short run because of the lack of additional production capacity and infrastructure. We conclude that the US and EU's energy sanctions against Russia can not guarantee its effectiveness. We argue that other measures, such as diplomacy, should be taken to settle the conflicts in Ukraine.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.119-142
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• 2011

Competitions for secure oil are intense around the world due to the limited oil reserves. The situations are becoming more serious as China has participated in the competition. This paper aims to investigate China's offshore oil development strategies to balance the supply and demand of oil and then suggest its policy implications. A surging increase of oil demand due to the rapid economic growth as well as the stagnation in domestic oil output has turned China into a net oil importer since 1993. Therefore, China has placed a significant priority on securing long-term stability of its offshore oil to cope with the rapid growing demand. It has taken a variety of strategies to secure stable oil resource such as development of offshore oil resource, increasing the number of oil importing countries. China with the highest foreign exchange reserve of approximately $3 trillion as of 2010, has considered to employ foreign exchange reserves while making a huge amount of investment to secure oil resource. China has pursued several policies such as loan to oil production country for securing oil, foreign direct investment on offshore oil development, M&A of oil exploration and production companies and geographical diversification of oil importing countries. China has promoted offensive strategies for securing oil resource rather than cooperation with other countries. Thus, China should find a trade-off point for recovering relationship with international society while developing and investing renewable energy for long-term future. It will also address some implications for Korea, which has to prepare new strategies of overseas oil development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.25-33
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• 2018

In the globalization and free trade era, the current account deficit problem is a common phenomenon experienced by most countries, both developing and developed countries. Also with managed floating regime of exchange rate, it becomes very important to analyze the dynamics of current account balance which determine the trade. The deficit condition has lasted for four years in Indonesia, as well the deficit value above the value of the surplus that has been experienced during the period 2005-2011. This study is firstly aim to examine the condition of the deficit which happens in the export and import, manufactured goods and oil and gas, whether related to the transaction of goods and services. We try to build a predicted model which near the actual. Then, the focuses examines an exchange rate volatility impact on current account deficit. The model used in this research is a simultaneous model of Indonesia current account deficit from 2005 to 2014. The simulation result indicated that depreciation increase surplus to current account deficit. The decrease of export manufactured goods (non oil and gas) higher than the increase of import. For the oil and gas sector, depreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar results in an increased burden of higher oil and gas imports due to import transactions.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.289-304
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• 2022

Korea's LNG and crude oil are the most important energy and export raw materials, but 100% import resources by overseas. However, tanker shipping companies, which play the most crucial role in energy cargo security, are very small in number and size, which can be a factor in the supply chain crisis. Therefore, this paper studied the policy of expanding tanker transportation necessary for the transport of crude oil and LNG in Korea. In the existing literature, there was no policy study necessary for tanker ships, but referring only to the importance of overseas energy development and transportation, so we tried to derive various demands necessary for expanding the tanker fleet through expert interviews and AHP which was conducted on 89 related energy institutions to derive policies and their priorities. The results of the study are as follows. As for the policy, the financial support policy was the highest priority, followed by the business and the mutual cooperation policy of related agencies. Tax support (22.6%) and ship financing (19.4%) were the highest priorities, followed by the Energy Intermediate Promotion Act (11.9%), Tanker Guarantee Insurance (10.6%), Energy Budget Independence (9.3%), and Korea Trader Development (8.2%). Energy governance (6.3%), information center establishment (6.2%), and energy procurement committee (5.5%) ranked seventh, eighth, and ninth. The research results show that it is necessary to supply sufficient ships to the market through the expansion of ship finance for tankers and to follow business support policies such as guarantee insurance. In addition, it was also possible to derive that the financial resources need to be determined by law and independent budgets for consistency and continuity.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.65-75
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• 1982

During the last decade the world had experienced oil crisis twice: the first one was the fourfold jump in oil prices in 1973 and 1974, the second one came in 1979 with 2.6 times price hike. The current crude oil prices stand around the level of $30 a barrel. The first reaction came quick, with reduced oil consumption and a general decline in economic activity. Furthermore, the second oil crisis has brought about tremendous and varied impacts upon the shipping industry, which is now undergoing an adaptation process to the changing environments. This article is divided into five chapters: chapter I is the introduction on the subject under examination; chapter II is devoted to the trends of the seaborne trade cargoes after the oil crisis; chapter III reveals the impact of the oil price hike on ships and their desion; chapter IV deals with the challenges shipping enterprises face in terms fo economic modus operandi and new international political environments; chapter V sets forth conclusion.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.28-34
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• 2015

This paper addresses the problems of using anti-freeze lubricants for different machines that must function at extremely low temperatures during winter operation in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). We discuss the possibility of obtaining anti-freeze base oils from Talakan crude oil, an area with major oil and gas deposits of the Republic of Sakha, and also provide the trade and technological classification of Talakan crude oil. We propose two different schemes for processing Talakan crude oil: the fuel scheme (obtaining light and heavy fractions as a fuel oil) and the base oil scheme (obtaining light fractions and base oils). We investigate the influence of pour point depressants on alkyl-methacrylate base on the low-temperature properties of the fractions obtained from Talakan crude oil and Korean base oils, and establish the optimal concentration of pour point depressants. We compare the properties of these fractions with the low-temperature properties of Korean base oils and find that the commercial oil "Ravenol 0W-40" provides optimistic results. We obtain oil with a pour point of minus $50^{\circ}C$ and a viscosity index greater than 100. The Design of Experiment was used to establish the optimum composition of the pour point depressants and the base oil S-8 to obtain lubricant oil with a kinematic viscosity of 17 cSt, viscosity index of 208, and a pour point of minus $64^{\circ}C$.