• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.93-98
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• 2018

본 연구는 아시아의 대표적인 신흥경제국으로 원유수입국이며 소규모 개방경제인 한국을 대상으로 유가쇼크의 거시경제 효과를 충격반응함수를 추정하여 분석하였다는데 의의가 있다. 유가쇼크는 대부분 공급 측면의 요인에 의해 발생하는 것으로 알려져 왔으나, 본 연구는 유가쇼크를 수요와 공급 측면에서 세 가지로 구분하여 그 거시경제 효과를 분석하였다. 한국의 경우에 있어, 유가쇼크는 쇼크의 요인에 따라 상이한 반응을 보였다. 원유공급쇼크는 산업 활동과 금리를 하락시키며, 원유 자체 수요쇼크는 다른 요인에 의한 유가쇼크보다 상대적으로 금리를 가장 크게 상승시키는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 경제호황에 의한 원유수요쇼크는 다른 요인에 의한 유가쇼크보다 물가와 환율을 상대적으로 가장 크게 상승시키는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 정책당국은 유가쇼크의 요인에 따라 상이한 정책 대응을 할 필요가 있을 것이다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.5-17
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• 2017

The main objective of the study is to measure the vulnerability of Indonesia's financial system stability in response to external shocks, including from regional economies namely three biggest Indonesia major trading partners (China, the U.S and Japan) and other external factors (oil price and the federal funds rate). Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Orthogonalized Impulse Response Function (OIRF) with quarterly data over the period Q4 2002 - Q1 2016, results confirm that, 1) oil price response has the largest effect to Indonesia financial stability system and the effect period is the longest compared to others, represented by NPL and IHSG; 2) among those three economies, only China's economic growth has significantly positive effect to Indonesia financial stability system. Based on the findings it is better for the authorities to: 1) Diversify international trade commodities by decreasing share of oil, gas, and mining export and boosting other potential sectors such as manufacture, and fisheries; 2) Ensure the survival of Indonesia large coal exporter companies without neglecting burden of national budget; and 3) Create buffer for demand shock from specific countries by diversifying and increasing share of trading from other countries particularly from ASEAN member states.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.12-22
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• 1991

The purpose of this study is to identify demand and methods of projection, including to prove the variables affecting the fluctuation of visitors and to analyze the relationship between these variables in National Park. Statistical analysis method (Multiple Linear Regression Analysis, ANOVA, and Model diagnostics) was carried out by computer program SAS/pc. 13 variables (1. Total Population, 2. Per Capita PDI, 3. Employment Ratio of S.O.C. & others, 4. NO. of Passenger Car, 5. Length of Roads, 6. Leisure Expenditure of Farm Household, 7. Leisure Expenditure of Urban Household, 8. Price Index, 9. NO. of Bus, 10. Exchange on Dollars, 11. Export, 12. Import, and 13. Visitors in National Park) had been used to this study. The scope of time period is during the last 17 years (1970-1986). The results were as follows; 1) Participation depends only on the specific characteristics of the economic factors (Price Index and Leisure Expenditure of Urban Household). These factors are the importance factors directly affecting the participation of visitors. The statistical Model for projecting the visitors in National Parks is the function of "Visitors in National Parks (thousand)=14915+0.210311*Leisure Expenditure of Urband Household (won)-157.835619*Price Index(1985=100)" 2) The external factors affecting the participation depends upon the interelated features of availability and accessibility (NO. of Passenger Car, Length of Roads, and NO. of Bus) of recreation resources or sites, and the economic factors (Per Capita PDI, Export, and Import). These factors are the factors indirectly affecting the participation of visitors. 3) The participation depends on the specific characteristics of demographic factors (Total Population and Employment Ratio of S.O.C. & others). These factors are the factors indirectly affecting the participation of visitors. 4) The unexpected fluctuation of yearly visitors depends on oil shock or inflation (1971, 1973-1974, 1979-1980), promulgation of national emergency decrees (1971-1972, 1974-1975, 1979-1980), and national events (assassination of president Park's wife, Madame Yuk in 1974 and president Park I 1979).

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.37-60
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• 1992

본고(本稿)에서는 실질(實質)GNP, 총통화(總通貨), GNP디플레이터, 전산업명목임금(全産業名目賃金)으로 구성된 체계에서의 구조적(構造的) 벡터자기회귀모형(自己回歸模型)을 추정하였다. 구조적(構造的) 요인(要因)으로는 총수요(總需要)(DEMAND), 총통화(總通貨)(SUPPLY), 안정화정책(安定化政策)(STBLZTN), 그리고 임금충격(賃金衝擊)(WAGE)을 추정, 복원하였다. 모형내(模型內)의 모든 변수(變數)는 단위근(單位根)을 하나씩 보유하고 있고, 4변수간에 공적분(共積分)이 존재함도 확인되었다. 구조요인(構造要因)을 복원한 뒤에는 이를 이용하여 충격반응분석(衝擊反應分析)을 행해 각 요인의 동태적인 효과를 살펴보았다. 추정결과는 대체적으로 표준적인 케인즈모형(模型)과 부합하였으나 때때로 한국경제(韓國經濟)에만 독특한 현상도 발견되었다.