• Title/Summary/Keyword: Occurrence probability distribution

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Numerical Analysis of Nonlinear Shoaling Process of Random Waves - Centered on the Evolution of Wave Height Distribution at the Varying Stages of Shoaling Process (불규칙 파랑 비선형 천수 과정 수치해석 - 천수 단계별 파고분포 변화를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yong Hee;Cho, Yong Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.106-121
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    • 2020
  • In order to make harbor outskirt facilities robust using the reliability-based design, probabilistic models of wave heights at varying stage of shoaling process optimized for Korean sea waves are prerequisite. In this rationale, we numerically simulate the nonlinear shoaling process of random waves over the beach with a sandbar at its foreshore. In doing so, comprehensive numerical models made of spatially filtered Navier-Stokes Eq., LES [Large Eddy Simulation], dynamic Smagorinsky turbulence closure were used. Considering the characteristics of swells observed at the east coast of Korean Peninsula, random waves were simulated using JONSWAP wave spectrum of various peak enhancement coefficients and random phase method. The coefficients of probabilistic models proposed in this study are estimated from the results of frequency analysis of wave crests and its associated trough detected by Wave by Wave Analysis of the time series of numerically simulated free surface displacements based on the threshold crossing method. Numerical results show that Modified Glukhovskiy wave height distribution, the most referred probabilistic models at finite water depth in the literature, over-predicts the occurring probability of relatively large and small wave heights, and under predicts the occurrence rate of waves of moderate heights. On the other hand, probabilistic models developed in this study show vary encouraging agreements. In addition, the discrepancy of the Modified Glukhovskiy distribution from the measured one are most visible over the surf zone, and as a result, the Modified Glukhovskiy distribution should be applied with caution for the reliability-based design of harbor outskirt facilities deployed near the surf-zone.

Habitat Prediction and Impact Assessment of Eurya japonica Thunb. under Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 한반도 사스레피나무의 생육지 예측과 영향 평가)

  • Yun, Jong-Hak;Park, Jeong Soo;Choi, Jong-Yun;Nakao, Katsuhiro
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.291-302
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    • 2017
  • The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Eurya japonica, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the warmth index (WI), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipitaion (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Seventeen general circulation models under RCP (Representative concentration pathway) 8.5 scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for E. japonica. The model of distribution for E. japonica constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of E. japonica. The area above the $-5.7^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the E. japonica. Future PHs for E. japonica were projected to increase respectively by 2.5 times, 3.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of E. japonica habitats is expanded gradually. E. japonica is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. E. japonica is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

Potential Habitats and Change Prediction of Machilus thunbergii Siebold & Zucc. in Korea by Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 한반도 후박나무의 잠재 생육지 및 변화예측)

  • Yun, Jong-Hak;Nakao, Katsuhiro;Park, Chan-Ho;Lee, Byoung-Yoon
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.903-910
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    • 2011
  • The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Machilus thunbergii, and the potential habitats under the current climate and three climate change scenario by using classification tree (CT) model. Four climate factors; the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), the warmth index (WI), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipition (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. The model of distribution for Machilus thunbergii (Mth-model) constructed by CT analysis showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of M. thunbergii. The area above the $-3.3^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the M. thunbergii. Potential habitats was predicted $9,326km^2$ under the current climate and $61,074{\sim}67,402km^2$(South Korea: $58,419{\sim}61,137km^2$, North Korea: $2,655{\sim}6,542km^2$) under the three climate change scenarios (CCCMA-A2, CSIRO-A2, HADCM3-A2). The Potential habitats was to predicted increase by 51~56%(South Korea: 49~51%, North Korea: 2~5%) under the three climate change scenarios. The potential expand of M. thunbergii habitats has been expected that it is competitive with warm-temperate deciduous broadleaf forest. M. thunbergii is evaluated as the indicator of climate change in Korea and it is necessary for M. thunbergii to monitor of potential habitats.

Selecting Protected Area Using Species Richness

  • Kwon, Hyuksoo;Kim, Jiyoen;Seo, Changwan
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2015
  • We created species richness maps of mammals, birds and plants using "Nnational Ecosystem Survey" data and identified correlations between species richness maps of each taxa. We examine the distribution of species richness of each taxa and calculated conservation priority rank through plotting species-area curves using an additive benefit function in Zonation. The conclusions of this study are as follows. First, plant showed high species richness in Gangwon province and Baekdudaegan, and mammals showed high species richness at eastern slope of Baekdudaegan in Gangwon province unusually and the species richness of mammals distributed equally except Gyeonggi and Chungnam province. However, birds showed high species richness in the west costal because the area is the major route of winter migratory birds. Second, correlation of each taxa's distribution is not significant. Correlation between mammals and birds is positive but correlations between birds and others are negative. Because mammals inhabit in forest but birds mostly live in coastal wetlands and rivers. Therefore, bird's habitats are not shared with other habitats. Third, the probability of mammals occurrence is very low under 25% in species-area curve, others increase proportionally to area. Birds increase dramatically richness at 10% because bird's habitat is concentrated in coastal wetlands and rivers. Plants increased gently species richness due to large forest in Gangwon province. We can calculate the predicted number of species in curves and plan various conservation strategies using the marginal number of species. Finally, high priority ranks for conservation distributed mainly in Gangwon province and Baekdudaegan. When we compared with priority map and terrestrial national parks, the parks were evaluated as high priority ranks. However, the rank of parks away from Baekdudaegan was low. This study has the meaning of selecting conservation priority area using National Ecosystem Survey. In spite of the omission of survey data in national parks and Baekdudaegan, the results were good. Therefore, the priority rank method using species distribution models is useful to selecting protected areas and improving conservation plans. However, it is needed to select protected areas considering various evaluation factors, such as rarity, connectivity, representativeness, focal species and so on because there is a limit to select protected area only using species richness.

Analysis of the Characteristics of Precipitation Over South Korea in Terms of the Associated Synoptic Patterns: A 30 Years Climatology (1973~2002) (종관적 특징에 따른 남한 강수 특성 분석: 30년 (1973~2002) 기후 통계)

  • Rha Deuk-Kyun;Kwak Chong-Heum;Suh Myoung-Seok;Hong Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.7
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    • pp.732-743
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    • 2005
  • The characteristics of precipitation over South Korea from 1973 to 2002 were investigated. The synoptic patterns inducing precipitation are classified by 10 categories, according to the associated surface map analysis. The annual mean frequency of the total precipitation, its duration time and amount for 30 years are 179 times, 2.9 hours, and 7.1 mm, respectively. About $59\%$ of the total precipitation events were associated with a synoptic low. The dominant patterns are identified with respect to seasons: A synoptic mobile low pressure pattern is frequent in spring, fall, and winter, whereas low pressure embedded within the Changma and orography induced precipitation are dominant in summer and in winter. For the amount of precipitation, precipitation originated from tropical air associated with typhoon, tropical convergence, and Changma is more significant than that with other pressure patterns. The statistical elapse time reaching to 80 mm, which is the threshold amount of heavy rainfall watch at KMA, takes 12.9 hours after the onset of precipitation. The probability distribution function of the precipitation shows that the maximum probability for heavy rainfall is located at the south-coastal region of the Korean peninsula. It is also shown that the geographical distribution of the Korean peninsula plays an important role in occurrence of heavy rainfall. For example, heavy precipitation is frequently occurred at Youngdong area, when typhoon passes along the coastal region of the back borne mountains in the peninsula. The climatological classification of synoptic patterns associated with heavy rainfall over South Korea can be used to provide a guidance to operational forecast of heavy rainfall in KMA.

A Still Image Coding of Wavelet Transform Mode by Rearranging DCT Coefficients (DCT계수의 재배열을 통한 웨이브렛 변환 형식의 정지 영상 부호화)

  • Kim, Jeong-Sik;Kim, Eung-Seong;Lee, Geun-Yeong
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.464-473
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    • 2001
  • Since DCT algorithm divides an image into blocks uniformly in both the spatial domain and the frequency domain, it has a weak point that it can not reflect HVS(Human Visual System) efficiently To avoid this problem, we propose a new algorithm, which combines only the merits of DCT and wavelet transform. The proposed algorithm uses the high compaction efficiency of DCT, and applies wavelet transform mode to DCT coefficients, so that the algorithm can utilize interband and intraband correlations of wavelet simultaneously After that, the proposed algorithm quantizes each coefficient based on the characteristic of each coefficient's band. In terms of coding method, the quantized coefficients of important DCT coefficients have symmetrical distribution, the bigger that value Is, the smaller occurrence probability is. Using the characteristic, we propose a new still image coding algorithm of symmetric and bidirectional tree structure with simple algorithm and fast decoding time. Comparing the proposed method with JPEG, the proposed method yields better image quality both objectively and subjectively at the same bit rate.

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A Study on the Connection Method for the Collapse Damage of Electric Power Facilities due to Earthquake Effects (지진 영향으로 인한 전기시설물의 붕괴피해 연계 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Byung-Hoon;Lee, Byung-Jin;Oh, Seung-Hee;Jung, Woo-Sug;Kim, Kyung-Seok
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.203-208
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we selected power and power distribution facilities corresponding to urban infrastructure from the types of damage that could be caused by earthquakes and studied how they were calculated to damage. To calculate the damage, a graph of the magnitude of the damage was produced by applying the vulnerability curve calculation formula, which can be calculated for each type and type of facility. The scale of the earthquake and the probability of the occurrence of damage by the maximum earthquake acceleration were shown in the form of a vulnerability rate when the earthquake occurred in the urban infrastructure facility for utilizing the calculation result. It also applied a method of quantifying the fragility, which is a method of converting the calculated fragility into an integrated form, to represent a constant value for the magnitude of the damage. Continuing research, such as the method applied in this paper, could help identify in advance the types of structures affected by an earthquake and respond to reducing damage.

A Study on the HEC(Hybrid ESE-Conductor) Method for Lightning Protection of Buildings (건축물의 낙뢰보호를 위한 HEC(Hybrid ESE-Conductor) 방식에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Kim, Young-Sun;Lee, Ki-Sik
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.146-152
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    • 2008
  • The frequency of lightning is increased due to improbable weather condition and global wanning. This phenomenon increases economical damage as well as human damage. Advanced countries like europe and north america have applied the facility standard of lightning by accumulating a store of quantitative data about lightning research. Lightning facility is composed of the lightning accepting part for induction lightning, ground connected electrode which conducts lightning current. The lightning accepting part is composed of normal rod, horizontal conductor, ESE lightning rod. Moreover, lightning accepting part is taken to use by the method of protection. This paper suggests HEC(Hybrid ESE-Conductor) method which mixes horizontal conductor and ESE lightning rod. This is also discovered by experiment that the starting point of corona discharge current is low, so it is efficient for lightning protection comparing with other methods. Moreover, distribution of electric field is analyzed qualitatively by finite element method. It also results in the relation of the starting point of corona discharge current. Corona discharge current makes minute current about some ${\mu}A$ between the electrodes by the strength of electric field. Also it occurs insulation destruction of gas, and it is developed to the shape of streamer by increase of the strength of electric field. We can find that the initial occurrence of streamer and contact probability of lightning can have advantage after researching the starting point of corona discharge current and discharge current of lightning striking point. This research demonstrates that the suggested HEC method is economically competitive as a lightning protection facility, and it takes a capably perfect role.

A Study on the Characteristics of Lightning Detection over the Naro Space Center (나로우주센터 상공의 낙뢰 발생 특성 연구)

  • Kim, Hong-Il;Choi, Eun-Ho;Suh, Sung-Ho;Seo, Seong-Gyu
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.31 no.7
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    • pp.543-553
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    • 2022
  • The latest aerospace technology is important for the stable flight of a launch vehicle, but weather conditions on the day of launch are also one of the essential factors for successful launch campaign. If a launch vehicle is directly struck while preparing to take off from the launch pad on the day of launch or the electronic device are damaged by induced current during flight of the launch vehicle, this means launch failure and can lead to enormous national loss. Therefore, for a successful launch campaign, it is necessary to analyze the lightning detection characteristics of the Naro Space Center. In this study, the seasonal factors of the lightning that occurred over the Naro Space Center from 2003 to 2017, the influence of the polarity, and the correlation with the lightning intensity was confirmed. As a result, there was a high probability of intensive occurrence of multiple lightning strikes in summer, and a high proportion of positive (+) lightning strikes in winter. Lastly, in the distribution of the number of lightning strikes, an average of 2.0 to 2.5 negative (-) lightning strikes occurs in the coastal regions of the South and West Seas when one flash happens.

Probabilistic Monitoring of Effect of Meteorological Drought on Stream BOD Water Quality (기상학적 가뭄이 하천 BOD 수질에 미치는 영향의 확률론적 모니터링)

  • Jiyu Seo;Jeonghoon Lee;Hosun Lee;Sangdan Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2023
  • Drought is a natural disaster that can have serious social impacts. Drought's impact ranges from water supply for humans to ecosystems, but the impact of drought on river water quality requires careful investigation. In general, drought occurs meteorologically and is classified as agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and environmental drought. In this study, the BOD environmental drought is defined using the bivariate copula joint probability distribution model between the meteorological drought index and the river BOD, and based on this, the environmental drought condition index (EDCI-BOD) was proposed. The results of examining the proposed index using past precipitation and BOD observation data showed that EDCI-BOD expressed environmental drought well in terms of river BOD water quality. In addition, by classifying the calculated EDCI-BOD into four levels, namely, 'attention', 'caution', 'alert', and 'seriousness', a practical monitoring stage for environmental drought of BOD was constructed. We further estimated the sensitivity of the stream BOD to meteorological drought, and through this, we could identify the stream section in which the stream BOD responded relatively more sensitively to the occurrence of meteorological drought. The results of this study are expected to provide information necessary for river BOD management in the event of meteorological droughts.