• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2004년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.479-483
• /
• 2004

A new calculation method of expected overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater considering real tide occurrence has been proposed. A calculation method of expected overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater was proposed by Kweon and Suh (2003). In their calculation, the fluctuation of tidal elevation was expressed by the sinusoidal change that yields the uniform distribution of occurrence frequency. However, the realistic distribution of tidal elevation should influence on the overtopping chance. In this study, the occurrence frequency of tidal elevation obtained from the real sea is included. The tidal elevation used in this study is collected from the east coastal part of Korean peninsular. Analyzing the annual data of the tidal fluctuation measured hourly during 355 days, the distribution of occurrence frequency is formulated utilizing by the normal distribution with one peak. Among the calculation procedures of annual maximum wave height, wave height-period joint distribution, wave run-up height and occurrence frequency of tide, only the annual maximum wave height is again chosen randomly from normal distribution to consider the uncertainty. The others are treated by utilizing the distribution function or relationship itself, It is found that the inclusion of the variability of tidal elevation has great influence on the computation of the expected overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater. The bigger standard deviation of occurrence frequency is, the lower the overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater is.

• 상하수도학회지
• /
• 제34권4호
• /
• pp.251-258
• /
• 2020

Sewer deterioration models are needed to forecast the remaining life expectancy of sewer networks by assessing their conditions. In this study, the serious defect (or condition state 3) occurrence probability, at which sewer rehabilitation program should be implemented, was evaluated using four probability distribution functions such as normal, lognormal, exponential, and Weibull distribution. A sample of 252 km of CCTV-inspected sewer pipe data in city Z was collected in the first place. Then the effective data (284 sewer sections of 8.15 km) with reliable information were extracted and classified into 3 groups considering the sub-catchment area, sewer material, and sewer pipe size. Anderson-Darling test was conducted to select the most fitted probability distribution of sewer defect occurrence as Weibull distribution. The shape parameters (β) and scale parameters (η) of Weibull distribution were estimated from the data set of 3 classified groups, including standard errors, 95% confidence intervals, and log-likelihood values. The plot of probability density function and cumulative distribution function were obtained using the estimated parameter values, which could be used to indicate the quantitative level of risk on occurrence of CS3. It was estimated that sewer data group 1, group 2, and group 3 has CS3 occurrence probability exceeding 50% at 13th-year, 11th-year, and 16th-year after the installation, respectively. For every data groups, the time exceeding the CS3 occurrence probability of 90% was also predicted to be 27th- to 30th-year after the installation.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
• /
• 제16권3호
• /
• pp.41-53
• /
• 2013

The study for the estimation potential natural vegetation was estimated the occurrence probability distribution using geographic information system(GIS) in Bukhansan National Park. Correlation and factor analysis were analyzed to estimate probability distribution. Coefficients were calculated by logistic regression analysis. Correlation coefficients were significantly at the 0.01 level. Commonality of elevation, annual mean temperature, warmth index and potential evapotranspiration were high value, but topographic index was low value. Communities of over the 0.3 points distribution probability, Quercus mogolica communities were the largest area, 76,940,900 $m^2$, Pinus densiflora communities area was 860,800 $m^2$, Quercus acutissima communities area was 500,100 $m^2$ and Quercus variabilis communities area was 1,000 $m^2$, but Q. aliena, Q. serrata, Carpinus laxiflora and Zelcova serrata communities was not appeared. Therefore, potential national vegetation of Bukhansan national park was likely to be Q. mongolica community, P. densiflora community, Q. acutissima community and Q. variabilis community.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• 제15권2호
• /
• pp.67-82
• /
• 2008

Risk that breed large size disaster is happening variously for cause at social. natural a management. Incidence and damage scale are trend that increase rapidly than past. In these circumstance, to keep operational continuity of organization, area, society, risk management action that establish systematic counter measure estimating and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue and the best countermeasure. Risk management action does by main purpose establish optimum disaster reduction countermeasure. To deduce various countermeasure, process that estimate and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue. Therefore, this paper studies process design that can presume risk occurrence frequency and damage scale through distribution of probability.

• 한국해양환경ㆍ에너지학회지
• /
• 제13권2호
• /
• pp.112-120
• /
• 2010

이 논문에서는 Yura 해역에서 폭풍 중 24시간 연속으로 측정된 freak wave가 포함된 파랑자료를 분석하여 비선형 파도의 통계적 특성을 살펴보았다. 파고의 초과확률분포는 Edgeworth-Rayleigh(ER) 분포와, Rayleigh 분포를 이용하여 계측된 자료와 비교하였다. 파형이 stationary 상태를 유지하는 10시간 동안 계측된 파랑자료(파랑의 개수가 4600 내외)에서는, 파형의 분포는 Gram-Chalier분포가 Gaussian분포보다 파랑자료와 일치를 한다. 전반적인 파고의 확률분포는 Rayleigh($H_{rms}$)분포를 잘 따르는 것을 볼 수 있다. Freak wave 발생확률은 Rayleigh($m_{o}{^{1/2}}$) 분포로 잘 표시가 되며, ER 분포는 과대하게 예측하는 것을 볼 수 있다. 30분간 계측된 파랑자료(파랑 개수가 250개 내외)에서 freak wave가 발생된 경우는 ER 분포가 freak wave 발생확률과 잘 일치한다. 그러나 전반적인 파고의 발생확률이 과대평가된다. Freak wave가 발생하지 않은 경우는 거의 모든 파고에 걸쳐 Rayleigh($H_{rms}$)분포가 계측된 파고분포와 잘 일치를 한다. 파고가 10 m 이하의 freak wave의 파고확률분포는 10 m 이상의 파고를 가지는 freak wave와 비슷한 경향을 보인다. $H_{max}/H_{1/3}$은 파형의 kurtosis와 연관이 있는 것을 보여주었다. Freak wave의 발생은 높은 kurtosis 값과 관계가 있으며, freak wave가 발생하는 임계 kurtosis 값이 존재할 가능성이 있을 것으로 추정된다.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제2권3호
• /
• pp.235-243
• /
• 1993

Extreme environments and freak wave characteristics in the coastal waters of Korean Peninsula are analyzed using the observed wave data. Freak wave has been intensely emphasized as an important environmental force parameter in several recent research works. However, the mechanism and occurrence probability of freak wave are not clarified. The aims of this study we: to summarize the distribution of extreme environment for wind waves, and to find occurrence probability of freak wave in the coastal waters of Korean Peninsula. These extreme sea conditions are discussed by applying extreme value analysis method, and the statistic characteristics are summarized which can be used to the design and analysis of coastal structures. The mechanism and the occurrence probability of freak wave are also discussed in detail using wave parameters in considered with wave deformation in the coastal waters. Key Words : extreme wave, freak wave, extreme analysis, design wave, probability density.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회A
• /
• pp.865-869
• /
• 2008

Juryeonggu is a Cuboctahedral die that had used in ancient Korea. This Cuboctahedral is consisted of different two penal servitudes of 14 facepieces, but the probability distribution can appear equally so it can be usable as a die. In this paper, achieved research study about probability of a Cuboctahedral die that have quadrilateral and triangle preferentially to search Juryeonggu's probability calculation method. First, confirmed probability distribution through Multibody-dynamics analysis and verified probability distribution through several experiments. Finally, with this simulation data, achieved theoretical analysis about Cuboctahedral die occurrence probability by using the residual momentum energy.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국소음진동공학회 2003년도 추계학술대회논문집
• /
• pp.47-55
• /
• 2003

This paper Presents active control algorithm using probability density function of structural energy. It is assumed that the structural energy under excitation has Rayleigh probability distribution. This assumption is based on the fact that Rayleigh distribution satisfies the condition that the structural energy is always positive and the occurrence probability of minimum energy is zero. The magnitude of control force is determined by the probability that the structural energy exceeds the specified target critical energy, and the sign of control force is determined by Lyapunov controller design method. Proposed control algorithm shows much reduction of peak responses under seismic excitation compared to LQR controller, and it can consider control force limit in the controller design. Also, chattering problem which sometimes occurs in Lyapunov controller can be avoided.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2005년도 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.1053-1057
• /
• 2005

The occurrence probability (OP) distributions of tide levels using harmonic constants of six tidal gauging stations in Korean coastal zone were estimated and analysed in detail. OP analysis using harmonic constants data of Incheon(Youldo), Mokpo, Yeosu, Pusan, Pohang and Sokcho was carried out and compared with the OP using hourly tidal elevation data which were served through the Internet Homepage by the National Ocean Research Institute. The tidal elevation data were divided by the AHHW (ALLW) value referenced to MSL in order to compare the OP patterns in a relative scale. The OP of the tidal elevation calculated using 38 harmonic tidal constituents relatively well agreed with those of hourly observed tidal elevation data. However, the OP results using four harmonic tidal constituents overestimate the occurrence probability at the peak points and underestimate at the tail-regions of the OP. Especially, the OP patterns of the Sokcho and Pohang tidal gauging stations on the East Sea show totally different patterns and the estimation method using four harmonic constants should be modified and application should be strictly limited on the East Sea areas. The OP patterns are considerably well generated in case of the OP generation using the additional two or three dominant tidal constituents,

• 대한토목학회논문집
• /
• 제26권4B호
• /
• pp.399-404
• /
• 2006

권혁민 등(2004)은 우리나라 동해안의 실해역 극치파고 및 조위발생빈도분포를 고려한 기대월파확률 산정기법을 제안했다. 권 등의 연구는 동해안의 묵호와 부산지역을 비교하여 조위발생빈도분포가 기대월파확률에 크게 영향을 준다는 것을 예시했으며 그 분포의 표준편차가 크면 클수록 기대월파확률이 작아짐을 보였다. 본 연구는 권혁민 등이 제안한 기대월파확률 계산방법을 준용하여 우리나라 동 남 서 해역의 기대월파확률 특성에 대하여 현행 설계방법에 의해 결정된 마루높이에 대한 평가를 시도하였다. 본 연구결과, 개략적으로 동 남 서 해역으로 갈수록 기대월파확률이 작아짐을 알 수 있다.