• Title/Summary/Keyword: Objective Prediction

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Evaluation of Plastic Collapse Behavior for Multiple Cracked Structures (다중균열 구조물의 소성붕괴거동 평가)

  • Moon, Seong-In;Chang, Yoon-Suk;Kim, Young-Jin;Lee, Jin-Ho;Song, Myung-Ho;Choi, Young-Hwan;Hwang, Seong-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.28 no.11
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    • pp.1813-1821
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    • 2004
  • Until now, the 40% of wall thickness criterion, which is generally used for the plugging of steam generator tubes, has been applied only to a single cracked geometry. In the previous study by the authors, a total number of 9 local failure prediction models were introduced to estimate the coalescence load of two collinear through-wall cracks and, then, the reaction force model and plastic zone contact model were selected as the optimum ones. The objective of this study is to estimate the coalescence load of two collinear through-wall cracks in steam generator tube by using the optimum local failure prediction models. In order to investigate the applicability of the optimum local failure prediction models, a series of plastic collapse tests and corresponding finite element analyses for two collinear through-wall cracks in steam generator tube were carried out. Thereby, the applicability of the optimum local failure prediction models was verified and, finally, a coalescence evaluation diagram which can be used to determine whether the adjacent cracks detected by NDE coalesce or not has been developed.

Uncertainty assessment of ensemble streamflow prediction method (앙상블 유량예측기법의 불확실성 평가)

  • Kim, Seon-Ho;Kang, Shin-Uk;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.523-533
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study is to analyze uncertainties of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method for model parameters and input data. ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) and BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) based on ABCD rainfall-runoff model were selected as streamflow prediction method. GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) was applied for the analysis of parameter uncertainty. The analysis of input uncertainty was performed according to the duration of meteorological scenarios for ESP. The result showed that parameter uncertainty was much more significant than input uncertainty for the ensemble-based streamflow prediction. It also indicated that the duration of observed meteorological data was appropriate to using more than 20 years. And the BAYES-ESP was effective to reduce uncertainty of ESP method. It is concluded that this analysis is meaningful for elaborating characteristics of ESP method and error factors of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method.

Parameter Calibration and Estimation for SSARR Model for Predicting Flood Hydrograph in Miho Stream (미호천유역 홍수모의 예측을 위한 SSARR 모형의 매개변수 보정 및 추정)

  • Lee, Myungjin;Kim, Bumjun;Kim, Jongsung;Kim, Duckhwan;Lee, Dong ryul;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.423-432
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    • 2017
  • This study used SSARR model to predict the flood hydrograph for the Miho stream in the Geum river basin. First, we performed the sensitivity analysis on the parameters of SSARR model to know the characteristics of the parameters and set the range. For the parameter calibration, optimization methods such as genetic algorithm, pattern search and SCE-UA were used. WSSR and SSR were applied as objective functions, and the results of optimization method and objective function were compared and analyzed. As a result of this study, flood prediction was most accurate when using pattern search as an optimization method and WSSR as an objective function. If the parameters are optimized based on the results of this study, it can be helpful for decision making such as flood prediction and flood warning.

The Effects of the Changed Initial Conditions on the Wind Fields Simulation According to the Objective Analysis Methods (객관분석기법에 의한 바람장 모의의 초기입력장 변화 효과 분석)

  • Kim, Yoo-Keun;Jeong, Ju-Hee;Bae, Joo-Hyun;Kwun, Ji-Hye;Seo, Jang-Won
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.759-774
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    • 2006
  • We employed two data assimilation techniques including MM5 Four Dimensional Data Asssimilation (FDDA) and Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) to find out the effects of the changed inetial conditions on the wind fields simulation according to the objective analysis methods. We designed 5 different modeling cases. EXP B used no data assimilation system. Both EXP Fl using surface observations and EXP F2 with surface and upper-air observations employed MM5 FDDA. EXP Ll using surface observations and EXP L2 with surface and upper-air observations used LAPS. As results of, simulated wind fields using MM5 FDDA showed locally characterized wind features due to objective analysis techniques in FDDA which is forcefully interpolating simulated results into observations. EXP Fl represented a large difference in comparison of wind speed with EXP B. In case of LAPS, simulated horizontal distribution of wind fields showed a good agreement with the patterns of initial condition and EXP Ll showed comparably lesser effects of data assimilation of surface observations than EXP Fl. When upper-air observations are applied to the simulations, while MM5 FDDA could hardly have important effects on the wind fields simulation and showed little differences with simulations with merely surface observations (EXP Fl), LAPS played a key role in simulating wind fields accurately and it could contribute to alleviate the over-estimated winds in EXP Ll simulations.

Whole Frame Error Concealment with an Adaptive PU-based Motion Vector Extrapolation for HEVC

  • Kim, Seounghwi;Lee, Dongkyu;Oh, Seoung-Jun
    • IEIE Transactions on Smart Processing and Computing
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.16-21
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    • 2015
  • Most video services are transmitted in wireless networks. In a network environment, a packet of video is likely to be lost during transmission. For this reason, numerous error concealment (EC) algorithms have been proposed to combat channel errors. On the other hand, most existing algorithms cannot conceal the whole missing frame effectively. To resolve this problem, this paper proposes a new Adaptive Prediction Unit-based Motion Vector Extrapolation (APMVE) algorithm to restore the entire missing frame encoded by High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC). In each missing HEVC frame, it uses the prediction unit (PU) information of the previous frame to adaptively decide the size of a basic unit for error concealment and to provide a more accurate estimation for the motion vector in that basic unit than can be achieved by any other conventional method. The simulation results showed that it is highly effective and significantly outperforms other existing frame recovery methods in terms of both objective and subjective quality.

A study on development of the system for prediction of bead geometry using Rapid Prototyping (RP를 이용한 용접비드 형상예측 시스템 개발에 관한 연구)

  • ;;Prasad K.D.V. Yarlagadda
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.04a
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    • pp.637-642
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    • 2002
  • Generally, the use of robots in manufacturing industry has been increased during the past decade. GMA(Gas Metal Are) welding is an actively growing area and many new procedures have been developed for use with high strength alloys. One of the basic requirement for welding applications is to study relationships between process parameters and bead geometry. The objective of this paper is to develop a new approach involving the use of neural network and multiple regression methods in the prediction of bead geometry for GMA welding process and to develop an intelligent system that enables the prediction of bead geometry using Rapid Prototyping(RP) in order to employ the robotic GMA welding processes. This system developed using MATLAB/SIMULINK, could be effectively implemented not only for estimating bead geometry, but also employed to monitor and control the bead geometry in real time.

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A Study on The Feliability Predication Model of Gyroscope (자이로의 신뢰성 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • 백순흠;문홍기;김호룡
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1993.10a
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    • pp.475-481
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    • 1993
  • The objective of this study is to develope the reliability prediction model for Float Rated Integrating Gyroscope( :FRIG) at maximum loading. The equation of motion for FRIG is firstly derived to set up the reliability prediction model. To analysis reliability or all parts of the gyro is not easy due to their complicated structure. Therefore the failure parts are chosen by Failure Mode Effective Analysis (:FMEA). F.E.M is utilized to calculate loads for the selseced rotating assembly and pivot / jewel. The technical reliability is calculated by applying reliability design theory with these results and the performance reliability is sought through distribution estimation with error test data. The bulk reliability of gyroscope is sought by applying the two results. The present prediction results are compared with the accumulation time in good agreement.

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On-line Failure Detection Method of DC Output Filter Capacitor in Power Converters (전력변환장치에서의 DC 출력 필터 커패시터의 온라인 고장 검출기법)

  • Shon, Jin-Geun
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.58 no.4
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    • pp.483-489
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    • 2009
  • Electrolytic capacitors are used in variety of equipments as smoothening element of the power converters because it has high capacitance for its size and low price. Electrolytic capacitors, which is most of the time affected by aging effect, plays a very important role for the power electronics system quality and reliability. Therefore it is important to estimate the parameter of an electrolytic capacitor to predict the failure. This objective of this paper is to propose a new method to detect the rise of equivalent series resistor(ESR) in order to realize the online failure prediction of electrolytic capacitor for DC output filter of power converter. The ESR of electrolytic capacitor estimated from RMS result of filtered waveform(BPF) of the ripple capacitor voltage/current. Therefore, the preposed online failure prediction method has the merits of easy ESR computation and circuit simplicity. Simulation and experimental results are shown to verify the performance of the proposed on-line method.

Development and Application of Accident Prediction Model for Railroad At-Grade Crossings (철도건널목의 사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 조성훈;서선덕
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.429-434
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    • 2001
  • Rail crossings pose special safety concerns for modern railroad operation with faster trains. More than ninety percent of train operation-related accidents occurs on at-grade crossings. Surest countermeasure for this safety hazard is to eliminate at-grade crossings by constructing over/under pass or by closing them. These eliminations usually require substantial amount of investment and/or heavy public protest from those affected by them. Thorough and objective analysis are usually required, and valid accident prediction models are essential to the process. This paper developed an accident prediction model for Korean at-grade crossings. The model utilized many important factors such as guide personnel, highway traffic, train frequency, train sight distance, and number of tracks. Developed model was validated with actual accident data.

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Noise Prediction and Design of Soundproof Facilities for the High Speed Train (고속열차(TGV) 주행시 연변에서의 소음예측 및 방음시설설계)

  • ;J. P. Clairbois
    • Journal of KSNVE
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.1106-1115
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    • 1999
  • This paper sums up the study of the soundproof facilities (noise barriers) to be placed on the test track section within the Seoul-Pusan H.S.T. project. The objective of this study is to determine optimum design of soundproof including height, length, location, sound absorbing materials for test track(chonan-taejon). This paper shows the model to design the shape and materials of noise barrier for high speed trains(TGV, ICE, ect). The design of soundproof facilities is to be conducted by MITHRA for the prediction of noise impact of the TGV and for optimising noise barriers in order to reduce the noise generated by high speed trains. A number of computer simulations are carried out in order to determine the specification of noise barrier on test track.

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