Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
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Parameter Calibration and Estimation for SSARR Model for Predicting Flood Hydrograph in Miho Stream

미호천유역 홍수모의 예측을 위한 SSARR 모형의 매개변수 보정 및 추정

  • Lee, Myungjin (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Kim, Bumjun (Korea Infrastructure Safety Corporation) ;
  • Kim, Jongsung (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Kim, Duckhwan (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Lee, Dong ryul (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Kim, Hung Soo (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University)
  • Received : 2017.09.04
  • Accepted : 2017.10.11
  • Published : 2017.11.30
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Abstract

This study used SSARR model to predict the flood hydrograph for the Miho stream in the Geum river basin. First, we performed the sensitivity analysis on the parameters of SSARR model to know the characteristics of the parameters and set the range. For the parameter calibration, optimization methods such as genetic algorithm, pattern search and SCE-UA were used. WSSR and SSR were applied as objective functions, and the results of optimization method and objective function were compared and analyzed. As a result of this study, flood prediction was most accurate when using pattern search as an optimization method and WSSR as an objective function. If the parameters are optimized based on the results of this study, it can be helpful for decision making such as flood prediction and flood warning.

본 연구는 SSARR모형을 이용해 금강유역의 미호천 유역에 대하여 홍수모의예측을 수행하였다. 먼저 모형의 매개변수의 특성을 알고, 범위를 설정하기 위해 모형의 매개변수에 대한 민감도 분석을 실시하였다. 매개변수 보정을 위하여 유전자 알고리즘, 패턴탐색, SCE-UA등의 최적화 방법을 이용하였고, 목적함수로는 WSSR과 SSR를 적용하였으며, 최적화 방법과 목적함수에 따른 결과를 비교, 분석하였다. 본 연구 결과 최적화 방법으로는 패턴탐색이, 목적함수로는 WSSR을 사용하였을 때, 홍수 예측이 가장 정확하였다. 본 연구 결과를 활용하여 각 모형의 매개변수를 최적화한다면, 홍수 예측 및 홍수 예경보와 같은 의사결정에 유용하게 활용 될 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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