• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.71-80
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• 2019

Daily ahead forecast is necessary for the electricity balance between load and supply due to the variability renewable energy. Numerical weather prediction is usually employed to produce the solar irradiance as well as electric power forecast for more than 12 hours forecast horizon. UM-LDAPS model is the numerical weather prediction operated by Korea Meteorological Administration and it generates the 36 hours forecast of hourly total irradiance 4 times a day. This study attempts to evaluate the model performance against the in situ measurements at 37 ground stations from January to May, 2013. Relative mean bias error, mean absolute error and root mean square error of hourly total irradiance are averaged over all ground stations as being 8.2%, 21.2% and 29.6%, respectively. The behavior of mean bias error appears to be different; positively largest in Chupoongnyeong station but negatively largest in Daegu station. The distinct contrast might be attributed to the limitation of microphysics parameterization for thick and thin clouds in the model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.11-18
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• 2022

In order to improve the accuracy of particle tracking prediction techniques near the Korean Strait, this study compared and analyzed a particle tracking model based on a seawater flow numerical model and a machine learning based on a particle tracking model using field observation data. The data used in the study were the surface drifter buoy movement trajectory data observed in the Korea Strait, prediction data by machine learning (linear regression, decision tree) using the tide and wind data from three observation stations (Gageo Island, Geoje Island, Gyoboncho), and prediciton data by numerical models (ROMS, MOHID). The above three data were compared through three error evaluation methods (Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE), and Normalized Cumulative Lagrangian Separation (NCLS)). As a final result, the decision tree model had the best prediction accuracy in CC and RMSE, and the MOHID model had the best prediction results in NCLS.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.213-222
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• 2002

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature up to +45 hours in Seoul area is performed using dynamic linear models(DLM). Numerical outputs and observations we used as input values of DLM. According to compare DLM forecasts to RDAPS forecasts using RMSE, DLM improve the accuracy of prediction and systematic error of numerical model outputs are eliminated by DLM.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.355-367
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• 1995

Tidal prediction at a given location has been conventionally made by harmonic method. Another means of tidal prediction is through numerical modeling of tides. Present research focussed on whether prediction of tides and tidal currents can be made everywhere in the Inchon Bay using the numerical model directly or by harmonic constants of tides and tidal currents of the whole Bay derived from the extended model run.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.48-54
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• 2000

This paper presents the effect of shape of external corrosion in pipeline on failure prediction by using a numerical simulation. The numerical study for the pipeline failure analysis is based on the FEM(Finite Element Method)with an elastic-plstic and large-deformation analysis. Corrosion pits and narrow corrosion grooves in pressurized pipeline were analysed. A failure criterion, based on the local stress state at the corrosion and a plastic collapse failure mechanism, is proposed. The predicted failure stress assessed for the simulated corrosion defects having different corroded shapes along the pipeline axis compared with those by methods specified in ANSI/ASME B31G code and a modified B31G code. It is concluded the corrosion geometry significantly affects the failure behavior of corroded pipeline and categorisation of pipeline corrosion should be considered in the development of new guidance for integrity assessment.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
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• v.14 no.3 s.75
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• pp.215-223
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• 2005

A numerical analysis program is developed by FDM scheme for the prediction of microstructural transformation during heat treatment of steels. In this study, multi-phase model was used fur description of diffusional austenite transformations in low-alloy hypoeutectoid steels during cooling after austenitization. A fundamental property of the model consisting of coupled differential equations is that by taking into account the rate of austenite grain growth, it permits the prediction of the progress of ferrite, pearlite, and bainite transformations simultaneously during quenching and estimate the amount of martensite also by using K-M eq. In order to simulate the microstructural evolution during tempering process, another Avrami-type eq. was adopted and method for vickers hardness prediction was also proposed. To verify the developed program, the calculated results are compared with experimental ones of casting product. Based on these results, newly designed heat treatment process is proposed and it was proved to be effective for industry.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.49-56
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• 2017

A clear correlation exists between the compressive strength and elastic modulus of concrete. Unfortunately, determining the static elastic modulus requires destructive methods and determining the dynamic elastic modulus is greatly complicated by the shape and size of the specimens. This paper reports on a novel approach to the prediction of compressive strength in concrete cylinders using numerical calculations in conjunction with the impact-echo method. This non-destructive technique involves obtaining the speeds of P-waves and S-waves using correction factors through numerical calculation based on frequencies measured using the impact-echo method. This approach makes it possible to calculate the dynamic elastic modulus with relative ease, thereby enabling the prediction of compressive strength. Experiment results demonstrate the speed, convenience, and efficacy of the proposed method.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.406-412
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• 2001

This study is focussed on the numerical prediction of the thermal fatigue life of a ${\mu}BGA$(Micro Ball Grid Array) solder joint. Numerical method is used to perform three-dimensional finite element analysis for Sn-37mass%Pb. Sn-3.5mass%Ag solder alloys during the given thermal cycling. Strain values, along with the result of mechanical fatigue tests for solder alloys were then used to predict the solder joint fatigue life using the Coffin-Manson equation. In this study, a practical correlation for the prediction of the thermal fatigue life is suggested by using the dimensionless variable $\gamma$. As a result. it could be found that Sn-3.5mass%Ag has longer fatigue life than Sn-37mass%Pb in low cycle fatigue. In addition. the result with ${\gamm}ashow$a good agreement with the FEA results.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 1997.04a
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• pp.581-587
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• 1997

Numerical predictions of aerodynamic noise radiated by subsonic rotors are carried out. A time domain approach for Ffowcs-Williams Hawkings equation of acoustic analogy is used in developing a comprehensive rotor/fan noise prediction program to handle both arbitrary blade shapes and loading conditions. Since only the aeroacoustic aspects of rotors are considered here, the calculations are carried out for rotors with simple aerodynamic characteristics. Broadband noise from ingestion of turbulence is also considered. By incorporating discrete frequency noise prediction of steady loading with broadband spectrum, much better correlation at the low frequency region with experimental data is obtaind. The contributions from different noise mechanisms can also be analysed through this method.

• International Journal of Automotive Technology
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.741-747
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• 2006

It has been almost impossible to predict the fatigue life in the field of rubber materials by numerical methods. One of the reasons is that there are no obvious fracture criteria and excessively various ways of mixing processes. Tearing energy is considered as a fracture criterion which can be applied to rubber compounds regardless of different types of fillers, relative to other fracture factors. Fatigue life of rubber materials can be approximately predicted based on the assumption that the latent defect caused by contaminants or voids in the matrix, imperfectly dispersed compounding ingredients, mold lubricants and surface flaws always exists. Numerical expression for the prediction of fatigue life was derived from the rate of rough cut growth region and the formulated tearing energy equation. Endurance test data for dumbbell specimens were compared with the predicted fatigue life for verification. Also, fatigue life of industrial rubber components was predicted.