• 융합보안논문지
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.113-122
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• 2018

한반도는 안보문제에 있어서 2018년에 남북 및 북미 정상회담을 계기로 최대의 격변을 겪고 있다. 북한은 정상회담을 통해 기존의 군사와 경제를 병행하여 발전시키려는 노선을 핵 포기를 통한 경제 중심의 노선으로 변경하여 추진하고 있으며, 이는 정상회담을 통해 자국의 경제적인 이득을 확보하기 위한 전략의 핵심이다. 이러한 노선의 변화는 리비아의 핵 포기 상황과 유사하게 흘러가고 있으며, 리비아의 사례(모델)을 교훈으로 왜 북한의 노선 변화가 있었고, 이후 북한의 핵 정책을 포함한 국가전략이 어떻게 변화될 것인가에 대해 전망이 필요한 시기이다. 리비아 모델은 국제적, 국내적, 국가 지도부의 정세 인식 측면으로 구분하여 분석/구축되었으며, 이를 기반으로 북한의 핵 정책 노선을 평가하였다. 또한 리비아의 핵 포기 이후 국가 상황을 북한과 비교하여 일부 전망해 보았다. 리비아 및 북한에게 핵 개발은 국제사회의 외교적, 경제적 압박은 체제의 불안정성을 가져오게 되었고, 이를 타개하기 위해 핵을 포기하고 경제적인 이득을 추구하도록 하였다. 하지만 리비아는 경제적 실리와 체제의 안정성은 일부 보장받았지만, 유입된 해외자본 및 사상/문화로 인해 민주주의의 물결 속에서 카다피 정권이 무너지는 결과가 있었다. 북한은 이러한 리비아의 사례를 기반으로 외교적, 경제적인 실리는 추구하겠지만, 부수적으로 유입될 수도 있는 민주주의 문화, 자유시장의 완전한 개방논리는 최대한 제한하려고 노력할 것이다.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2011

North Korea is now under the pressure of international sanctions due to its nuclear tests, firing of long-range ballistic missiles, the sinking of the ROK naval frigate the Cheonan, and the artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island that killed four people. To overcome the burden of sanctions North Korea has exerted various efforts to reconstruct its industries. However, it is very unlikely that these reconstruction efforts would produce significant results due to the structural problems of the antiquated infrastructure of North Korean industries. In the future, it is expected that South Korea will have to cooperate with North Korea for the reconstruction of the North Korean economy after the North Korean nuclear issue will be peacefully resolved. South Korean government has to prepare for the reconstruction with careful planning based on analysis of North Korean industries. But, the number of previous studies that have analyzed the technological level of North Korean industries are quite limited. In preparation for the future inter-Korean industrial cooperation, this study tries to analyze the technological level of North Korean industries. The steel industry has been selected as the focus for the main analysis of this study due to the importance of the steel industry as one of key infrastructure industries. Additionally, this study tests the sustainability of the North Korean steel industry by looking into the possibility of whether the North Korean steel industry can sustain or grow while maintaining global competitiveness in the future when the market opens to the world. Such analysis is expected to contribute to the joint prosperity of two Koreas in the short term and the reduction of unification costs in long term.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.63-88
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• 2019

북한의 변화와 동향 파악에 대한 연구는 북한관련 정책에 대한 방향을 결정하고 북한의 행위를 예측하여 사전에 대응 할 수 있다는 측면에서 매우 중요하다. 현재까지 북한 동향에 대한 연구는 전문가를 중심으로 과거 사례를 서술적으로 분석하여, 향후에 북한의 동향을 분석하고 대응하여 왔다. 이런 전문가 서술 중심의 북한 변화 및 동향 연구에서 비정형데이터를 이용한 텍스트마이닝 분석이 더해지면 보다 과학적인 북한 동향 분석이 가능할 것이다. 특히 북한의 동향 파악과 북한의 대남 관련 행위와 연관된 연구는 통일 및 국방 분야에서 매우 유용하며 필요한 분야이다. 본 연구에서는 북한의 신문 기사 내용을 활용한 텍스트마이닝 방법으로 북한과 관련한 핵심 단어를 구축하였다. 그리고 본 연구는 김정은 집권 이후 최근의 남북관계의 극적인 관계와 변화들을 기반으로 세 개의 기간을 나누고 이 기간 내에 국내 언론에 나타난 북한과 관련성이 높은 단어들을 시계열적으로 분석한 연구이다. 북한과 관련한 주요 단어들을 세 개의 기간별로 분류하고 당시에 북한의 태도와 동향에 따라 해당 단어와 주제들의 관련성이 어떻게 변화하였는지를 파악하였다. 본 연구는 텍스트마이닝을 이용한 연구가 남북관계 및 북한의 동향을 이해하고 분석하는 방법론으로서 얼마나 유용한 것이지를 파악하는 것이었다. 앞으로 북한의 동향 분석에 대한 연구는 물론 대북관계 및 정책에 대한 방향을 결정하고, 북한의 행위를 사전에 예측하여 대응 할 수 있는 북한 리스크 측정 모델 구축을 위한 연구로 진행 될 것이다.

• 한국방사선학회논문지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.71-77
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• 2023

북한 비핵화 문제는 남북을 넘어 세계적인 문제이다. 북한이 비핵화 의지를 밝힐 상황을 대비하여 비핵화 과정에 대한 준비가 필요하다. 북한 비핵화 과정에서 검증 장비의 정상 작동 담보가 요구된다. 카자흐스탄에서 저온으로 인해 장비가 작동되지 않은 선례를 참고했을 때 북한 환경을 고려한 성능 시험 기준이 수립된다면 향후 비핵화 과정에서 활용 가능성이 높을 것이라 판단하였다. 이를 위해 국제 기준 등 시험 기준 분석을 통해 성능 시험 기준 관련 기초 자료를 구축하였다. 이후, 북한 주요 원자력 시설이 위치한 영변군 및 풍계리의 기후, 지리적 특성을 고려하여 검증 상황 발생 시 적시 대응 가능한 성능 시험 기준 수립을 수행하였다. 여기에는 고온, 저온, 습도, 진동, 충격 시험이 포함된다. 후속 연구에서는 실제 장비 시험을 통해 시험 기준의 타당성을 수립하고자 한다.

• Strategy21
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• 통권39호
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• pp.114-139
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• 2016

Korea and China are neighboring countries with close contacts in many areas from long time ago, and have shared interests in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, and in deepening economic relationship which has been mutually complementary in their nature. Therefore their bilateral relations has been developed at a remarkable pace to the extent that it can't be better than now. However, the differences in their responses to North Korean nuclear test and ensuing long-range ballistic missile test-fire and the Chinese strong concern on the possible deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defence) anti-missile system in Korea show that there are some weaknesses in their relations. For example, Korea is not still confident that China would fully implement the sanction measures contained in the UNSC resolution and I argue that Chinese proposal of parallel negotiation of the denuclearization and the replacement of Korean armistice with the Peace Agreement is not much persuasive. In THAAD issue, if Korea comes to conclusion in the future that THAAD is the most effective way to counter North Korean threats, Korea should make every efforts to assure China that Korea-US alliance is not targeting China, and the THAAD is a defensive system, not damaging Chinese security. In the longer-term, deepening strategic distrust and competition between the US and China in this part of East Asia, changing nature of economic cooperation between Korea and China, and the revival of 'great country mentality' by Chinese people together with the rising nationalism in both Korea and China would cast shadow on Korea-China relation in the years ahead, unless properly handled. In this regard, I suggest that the security communications between the two countries be further strengthened, and the tri-lateral dialogue channel be established among the three countries of Korea, the US and China, particularly on North Korean issues. I also suggest the new pattern of economic cooperation be sought, considering the changing economic environment in China, while strengthening the efforts to understand each other through more interactions between the two peoples.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제14권6_1호
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• pp.75-87
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• 2014

집권 3년차의 김정은 시대 북한의 지속과 변화 분석은 나름대로 의미를 부여할 수 있을 것이다. 분석한 결과 보다 합리적이고 통계적인 방법을 적용하기 위하여 김일성, 김정일, 김정은 시대의 신년사를 활용하였다. 북한에 있어서 신년사만큼 영향력 있는 사항은 드물며 북한사회의 제 분야에 있어서 한해의 길라잡이 역할을 수행하고 있다. 현재까지 발표된 김일성, 김정일, 김정은 시대 신년사를 종합적으로 고찰하여 정리하였다. 종합된 신년사를 김일성, 김정일, 김정은 시대로 구분하여 발표방법, 내용구성, 기타사항을 등을 비교 분석하였으며, 이어서 북한 정권별 신년사 특징과 함의를 살펴보았다. 이와 같은 분석 결과를 바탕으로 김정은 시대의 지속과 변화를 전망해 보았다. 먼저 지속적인 사항으로 제시한 사항은 사회주의 체제 고수와 선군정치의 통치방식이다. 변화사항으로는 (1) 경제난 타개를 위한 부분적인 개방문제, (2) 북한의 핵문제, (3) 자본주의 성격의 유입과 사회주의 통제력 약화, (4) 김정은의 해외 유학경험 등을 4가지 사항을 변화요인으로 제시하였다. 이러한 김정은 시대의 북한 사회의 변화와 지속요인은 복합적으로 작동될 것이다. 김정은 시대의 북한의 지속과 변화문제는 남북문제를 해결해 나가는데 핵심 사항들이다. 전 국민적 공감대를 형성하면서 국론결집 노력 강화와 변화 상황에 능동적으로 대처할 수 있는 대북정책의 유연성을 확보하는 자세가 필요한 시점이다.

• 안보군사학연구
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• 통권13호
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• pp.43-81
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• 2016

Security environment we face in the Korean Peninsula is unexpectable. Tensions between Seoul and Pyeongyang and its threats are continuously evolving. Kim Jung Un will keep on conducting provocations and DPRK's isolation will result uncertainty to their objective and intention. KPA is centered on ground forces with conventional weapons but they possess modernized missiles and nuclear capabilities. What's more concerning is that North Korea continuously pursue and develop nuclear weapons and missile capabilities. Pursuing defense reform is inevitable for the ROK to deal adequately against the security threats posed by the North and to prepare for the environment of future warfare. If we are satisfied with the current capabilities then our military capabilities and security status will retrogress. We have to reorganize our units to make a small but FMC, smart military organization. Organization analysis is an urgent issue for reorganizing units. However, it isn't an easy task to reform an organization. There are vague parts for analysis and strong resistance from the people within the organization. Therefore should not focus on the reduction of people and the organization. Organization reform should be done with the acknowledgement of most of the personnel and should focus on the task and its method. These should be reflected to the organization analysis.

• Strategy21
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• 통권42호
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• pp.5-52
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• 2017

Debates about introducing nuclear submarines have been a main issue in Korea. The highest officials and the government has started to think seriously about the issue. Yet there were no certain decision to this issue or any agreements with US but it is still necessary to review about introducing nuclear submarines, the technologies and about the business. The reason for such issues are the highest officials of Korea to build nuclear submarine, nK's nuclear development and SLBM launching. ROKN's nuclear submarine's necessity will be to attack(capacity to revenge), defend(anti-SSBN Operation) and to respond against neighboring nation's threat(Russia, Japan, China). Among these nations, US, Russia (Soviet Union), Britain, France had built their submarines in a short term of time due to their industrial foundation regarding with nuclear propulsion submarines. However China and India have started their business without their industrial foundation prepared and took a long time to build their submarines. Current technology level of Korea have reached almost up to US, Russia, Britain and France when they first built their nuclear propulsion submarines since we have almost completed the business for the Changbogo-I,II and almost up to complete building the Changbogo-III which Korea have self designed/developed. Furthermore Korea have reached the level where we can self design large nuclear reactors and the integrated SMART reactor which we can call ourselves a nation with worldwide technologies. If introducing the nuclear submarine to the Korea gets decided, first of all we would have to review the technological problems and also introduce the foreign technologies when needed. The methods for the introduction will be developments after loans from the foreign, productions with technological cooperations, and individual production. The most significant thing will be that changes are continuous and new instances are keep showing up so that it is important to only have a simple reference to a current instances and have a review on every methods with many possibilities. Also developing all of the technologies for the nuclear propulsion submarines may be not possible and give financial damages so there may be a need to partially introduce foreign technologies. For the introduction of nuclear propulsion submarines, there must be a resolution of the international regulations together with the international/domestics resistances and the technological problems to work out for. Also there may be problem for the requirement fees to solve for and other tough problems to solve for. However nuclear submarines are powerful weapon system to risk everything above. This is an international/domestically a serious agenda. Therefore rather than having debates based on false facts, there must be a need to have an investigations and debates regarding the nation's benefits and national security.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.272-280
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• 2023

For the past 70 years, an intense rivalry has persisted on the Korean Peninsula, and North Korea's nuclear and missile threats are becoming increasingly imminent. Facing a shortage of military resources, South Korea has pursued a national defense reform, significantly reducing the number of units and troops while focusing on ground forces. However, North Korea's strategic objective of unifying South Korea through surprise attacks, prompt responses, and combined nuclear and missile assaults remains unchanged. The central issue in this context revolves around determining the appropriate size of the Korean military's standing forces. This study employs the concept of net assessment as a novel method to ascertain the optimal size of the Korean military. Threats, strategic objectives, doctrine, and unit rotations are simultaneously considered from the enemy's perspective. In anticipation of security risks on the Korean Peninsula, an acceptable troop size will be proposed using the net assessment approach to calculate the appropriate standing force size.

• Strategy21
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• 통권30호
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• pp.99-142
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• 2012

Withe increased North Korea's security threats, the South Korean navy has been faced with deteriorating security environment. While North Korea has increased asymmetric forces in the maritime and underwater with the development of nuclear weapons, and China and Japan have made a large investment in the buildup of naval forces, the power of the Pacific fleet of the US, a key ally is expected to be weakened. The biggest threat comes from China's intervention in case of full-scale war with North Korea, but low-density conflict issues are also serious problems. North Korea has violated the Armistice Agreement 2,660 times since the end of Korean War, among which the number of marine provocations reaches 1,430 times, and the tension over the NLL issue has been intensifying. With tension mounting between Korea and Japan over the Dokdo issue and conflict escalating with China over Ieo do Islet, the US Navy has confronted situation where it cannot fully concentrate on the security of the Korean peninsula, which leads to need for strengthening of South Korea's naval forces. Let's look at naval forces of neighboring countries. North Korea is threatening South Korean navy with its increased asymmetric forces, including submarines. China has achieved the remarkable development of naval forces since the promotion of 3-step plan to strengthen naval power from 1989, and it now retains highly modernized naval forces. Japan makes an investment in the construction of stat of the art warship every year. Since Japan's warship boasts of its advanced performance, Japan's Maritime Self Defense Force is evaluated the second most powerful behind the US Navy on the assumption that submarine power is not included in the naval forces. In this situation, naval power construction of South Korean navy should be done in phases, focusing on the followings; First, military strength to repel the energy warship quickly without any damage in case of battle with North Korea needs to be secured. Second, it is necessary to develop abilities to discourage the use of nuclear weapons of North Korea and attack its nuclear facilities in case of emergency. Third, construction of military power to suppress armed provocations from China and Japan is required. Based on the above naval power construction methods, the direction of power construction is suggested as follows. The sea fleet needs to build up its war potential to defeat the naval forces of North Korea quickly and participate in anti-submarine operations in response to North Korea's provocations. The task fleet should be composed of 3 task flotilla and retain the power to support the sea fleet and suppress the occurrence of maritime disputes with neighboring countries. In addition, it is necessary to expand submarine power, a high value power asset in preparation for establishment of submarine headquarters in 2015, develop anti-submarine helicopter and load SLAM-ER missile onto P-3C patrol aircraft. In case of maine corps, division class military force should be able to conduct landing operations. It takes more than 10 years to construct a new warship. Accordingly, it is necessary to establish plans for naval power construction carefully in consideration of reality and future. For the naval forces to safeguard maritime sovereignty and contribute to national security, the acquisition of a huge budget and buildup of military power is required. In this regard, enhancement of naval power can be achieved only through national, political and military understanding and agreement. It is necessary to let the nation know that modern naval forces with improved weapon system can serve as comprehensive armed forces to secure the command of the sea, perform defense of territory and territorial sky and attack the enemy's strategic facilities and budget inputted in the naval forces is the essential source for early end of the war and minimization of damage to the people. If the naval power construction is not realized, we can be faced with a national disgrace of usurpation of national sovereignty of 100 years ago. Accordingly, the strengthening of naval forces must be realized.