• Strategy21
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• s.39
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• pp.82-113
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• 2016

This paper analyzes the contents and the effects of the UNSC 2270, and its implications to South Korea's defense strategy and navy. The UN Security Council passed strong sanctions against North Korea which punish North Korea's 4^th nuclear test. The sanctions compared to the previous ones require international society to take practical actions such as comprehensive trade bans as well as diplomatic isolation which will put significant pains on North Korea. Especially, these measures would greatly hamper economic development policy of Kim Joung-un regime. Because Kim Jung-un regime has inherent legitimacy problems which stems from the third family succession of the power, economic difficulties may play an important cause on the regime instability in the long term. In fact, the United States sees this possibility as an option to coerce North Korea in which North Korea choose denuclearization for its regime survival. Nevertheless, the prospects of the UN sanctions are not so optimistic. Considering North Korea's willingness for nuclear development and its level of nuclear technology, North Korea will try to play a gambit with the US and South Korea by exploiting its strategic advantages. North Korea's response will have three following strategies. First, it would actively pursue political and economic survival strategy by using China's support for the regime, strengthening its power grip in the name of countering US hostile policy, and enhancing peace propaganda. Second, North Korea will accelerate efforts to position its status as a nuclear de facto state. For this purpose, it could create nuclear crisis on the peninsula. Third, it would exploit local provocations as an exit strategy to get over the current situation. In order to counter North Korea's actions and punish North Korea's behavior strongly, South Korea needs following strategies and efforts. It should first make all the efforts to implement the UN sanctions. Strong and practical nuclear deterrence strategy and capability with the U.S. should be developed. Effective strategy and capabilities for the prevention and deterrence of North Korea's provocation should be prepared. For this purpose, North Korea's provocation strategy should be thoroughly reviewed. Active international cooperation is needed to punish and coerce North Korea's behavior. Finally, South Korea should prepare for the possible occurrence of North Korea's contingency and make use of the situation as an opportunity to achieve unification. All these strategies and efforts demand the more active roles and missions of South Korea's navy and thus, nullify North Korea's intention militarily.

• Strategy21
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• s.39
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• pp.114-139
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• 2016

Korea and China are neighboring countries with close contacts in many areas from long time ago, and have shared interests in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, and in deepening economic relationship which has been mutually complementary in their nature. Therefore their bilateral relations has been developed at a remarkable pace to the extent that it can't be better than now. However, the differences in their responses to North Korean nuclear test and ensuing long-range ballistic missile test-fire and the Chinese strong concern on the possible deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defence) anti-missile system in Korea show that there are some weaknesses in their relations. For example, Korea is not still confident that China would fully implement the sanction measures contained in the UNSC resolution and I argue that Chinese proposal of parallel negotiation of the denuclearization and the replacement of Korean armistice with the Peace Agreement is not much persuasive. In THAAD issue, if Korea comes to conclusion in the future that THAAD is the most effective way to counter North Korean threats, Korea should make every efforts to assure China that Korea-US alliance is not targeting China, and the THAAD is a defensive system, not damaging Chinese security. In the longer-term, deepening strategic distrust and competition between the US and China in this part of East Asia, changing nature of economic cooperation between Korea and China, and the revival of 'great country mentality' by Chinese people together with the rising nationalism in both Korea and China would cast shadow on Korea-China relation in the years ahead, unless properly handled. In this regard, I suggest that the security communications between the two countries be further strengthened, and the tri-lateral dialogue channel be established among the three countries of Korea, the US and China, particularly on North Korean issues. I also suggest the new pattern of economic cooperation be sought, considering the changing economic environment in China, while strengthening the efforts to understand each other through more interactions between the two peoples.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.69-96
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• 2019

This paper is written to suggest several recommendations for South Korea to deter and defend North Korean nuclear threat, when North Korea does not seem to give up its nuclear weapons and the US's extended deterrence including the nuclear umbrella could remain uncertain. For this purpose, it explains key options regarding nuclear deterrence and defense by non-nuclear weapon state. It evaluates the current status of South Korean non-nuclear preparedness against North Korean nuclear threat and provides some recommendations to improve the preparedness. As a result, this paper concluded that South Korean non-nuclear preparedness against North Korean nuclear threat was not that reliable. The preparedness has weakened since the South Korean effort to denuclearize North Korea through negotiations in 2018. In this sense, South Korea could have serious problems in protecting its people from North Korean nuclear threat if the US promise of extended deterrence is not implemented. South Korea should focus on its decapitation operation to North Korean highest leaders in case of North Korean nuclear attack based on a minimal deterrence concept. It should be prepared to conduct preventive strikes instead of preemptive strikes due to North Korea's development of solid fuel ballistic missiles. It should integrate its Ballistic Missile Defense with that of the US forces in Korea. South Korea should make a sincere effort for nuclear civil defense including construction of nuclear shelters.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.405-421
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• 2019

International aid to North Korea remains far below the humanitarian needs of vulnerable people. This paper examines the trajectory of international humanitarian assistance to North Korea over the last two decades with the focus on its decline in the context of the country's nuclear standoff and corresponding stringent sanctions. In so doing, the paper addresses major problems associated with North Korea's reception of foreign aid and operational constraints placed on humanitarian activities in the country. It shows that humanitarian assistance to North Korea has been largely shaped by geopolitical dynamics. A survey of UN reports and statistics also suggests a shifting trend in recent international aid to North Korea. The decline of aid and multiple operational obstacles faced by humanitarian organizations, for instance, have led to a fall in agricultural support and a proportional rise in health and related services. While UN Security Council resolutions include an exemption provision, humanitarian assistance to North Korea has been constrained by stringent sanctions, which have led to adverse consequences for the civilian population. In this regard, the paper suggests some policy directions for international aid to North Korea amidst negotiations over denuclearization, while stressing an urgent need to address the negative impact of sanctions on vulnerable groups in the country.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.63-88
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• 2019

The goal of this paper is to investigate changes in North Korea's domestic and foreign policies through automated text analysis over North Korea represented in South Korean mass media. Based on that data, we then analyze the status of text mining research, using a text mining technique to find the topics, methods, and trends of text mining research. We also investigate the characteristics and method of analysis of the text mining techniques, confirmed by analysis of the data. In this study, R program was used to apply the text mining technique. R program is free software for statistical computing and graphics. Also, Text mining methods allow to highlight the most frequently used keywords in a paragraph of texts. One can create a word cloud, also referred as text cloud or tag cloud. This study proposes a procedure to find meaningful tendencies based on a combination of word cloud, and co-occurrence networks. This study aims to more objectively explore the images of North Korea represented in South Korean newspapers by quantitatively reviewing the patterns of language use related to North Korea from 2016. 11. 1 to 2019. 5. 23 newspaper big data. In this study, we divided into three periods considering recent inter - Korean relations. Before January 1, 2018, it was set as a Before Phase of Peace Building. From January 1, 2018 to February 24, 2019, we have set up a Peace Building Phase. The New Year's message of Kim Jong-un and the Olympics of Pyeong Chang formed an atmosphere of peace on the Korean peninsula. After the Hanoi Pease summit, the third period was the silence of the relationship between North Korea and the United States. Therefore, it was called Depression Phase of Peace Building. This study analyzes news articles related to North Korea of the Korea Press Foundation database(www.bigkinds.or.kr) through text mining, to investigate characteristics of the Kim Jong-un regime's South Korea policy and unification discourse. The main results of this study show that trends in the North Korean national policy agenda can be discovered based on clustering and visualization algorithms. In particular, it examines the changes in the international circumstances, domestic conflicts, the living conditions of North Korea, the South's Aid project for the North, the conflicts of the two Koreas, North Korean nuclear issue, and the North Korean refugee problem through the co-occurrence word analysis. It also offers an analysis of South Korean mentality toward North Korea in terms of the semantic prosody. In the Before Phase of Peace Building, the results of the analysis showed the order of 'Missiles', 'North Korea Nuclear', 'Diplomacy', 'Unification', and ' South-North Korean'. The results of Peace Building Phase are extracted the order of 'Panmunjom', 'Unification', 'North Korea Nuclear', 'Diplomacy', and 'Military'. The results of Depression Phase of Peace Building derived the order of 'North Korea Nuclear', 'North and South Korea', 'Missile', 'State Department', and 'International'. There are 16 words adopted in all three periods. The order is as follows: 'missile', 'North Korea Nuclear', 'Diplomacy', 'Unification', 'North and South Korea', 'Military', 'Kaesong Industrial Complex', 'Defense', 'Sanctions', 'Denuclearization', 'Peace', 'Exchange and Cooperation', and 'South Korea'. We expect that the results of this study will contribute to analyze the trends of news content of North Korea associated with North Korea's provocations. And future research on North Korean trends will be conducted based on the results of this study. We will continue to study the model development for North Korea risk measurement that can anticipate and respond to North Korea's behavior in advance. We expect that the text mining analysis method and the scientific data analysis technique will be applied to North Korea and unification research field. Through these academic studies, I hope to see a lot of studies that make important contributions to the nation.

• Korea and Global Affairs
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.93-112
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• 2018

The Pyeongchang 2018 Olympic Winter Games is a good example of functionalism in integration theories. President Moon Jae-in is extremely lucky to play host to the Winter Olympics. Moon should be particularly happy to have declared the 23rd Winter Games open, because a handful of North Korean athletes marched into the Pyeongchang Stadium as members of a joint team from "Corea," the result of his strenuous efforts to have the North participate in the world festival of sports on snow and ice. But the president of this divided nation hardly draws envy from other world leaders, as he is faced with the daunting task of accommodating the selfish positions of surrounding powers concerning North Korean nuclear and missile threats. North Korea, a trivial competitor in winter sports, scored big outside the games' sporting arenas by inviting President Moon to summit talks in Pyongyang. As a precondition for a 2018 summit, Pyongyang will first ask for the cessation of the annual joint Korea-US military exercises. President Moon invested a lot in the Olympic delegates from the North. Korea's leader will now have to start a truly difficult game which will require the best of best strategies as well as a great deal of wisdom and tenacity not only to deal with the weapons of mass destruction-toting North Koreans, but also with allies. On the other hand, Moon needs to make the effort to reset domestic politics with tolerance and compromise, so he can better concentrate on the conundrum of North Korean nuclear and missile threats.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.327-344
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• 2019

This paper explores the hub-and-spoke system as the structure of the global economic network that presents obstacles for international cooperation. With its exclusive jurisdiction and control over the hub, a powerful state can employ coercive economic measures to compel and deter unwanted behavior of rogue states and even its allies. Against this backdrop, this study analyzes the cases of the US blocking access to its market by Chinese Huawei as well as the case of Japan in restricting trade for highly advanced goods to South Korea. This analysis reveals that both measures are forms of secondary boycotts, which affect not only the entities within their jurisdiction but also others located in third countries. In addition, this paper extends its findings to free trade agreements and offers implications on the outward processing scheme for the Gaeseong Industrial Complex in the KORUS FTA and the Korea-China FTA. These events result in a gray-risk for South Korea, a country that aims to resolve North Korea's denuclearization and inter-Korean economic cooperation.

• Industry Promotion Research
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.123-134
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• 2020

This study analyses the Korean successive governments' nuclear strategies after the post-cold war and suggests the future countermeasures as analysing to reciprocally interconnect B. Clinton and G.W.Bush governments' policies and North Korea's nuclear strategy. As the conclusion, this study suggests that the most urgent domestic alternative measure to North Korea's nuclear dismantlement is to prepare the grand strategy with the united whole national consensus and to order the renewed stronger future role by the mutual cooperation of multilateral agreement system and international regimes and lastly to adopt the extended deterrence through the reinforcement of the 5 great joint statements between the South-North Koreas.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.63-87
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• 2020

This article not only theoretically explores the necessity and effect of constructive minilateralism and subregionalism in Northeast Asia, but also delves into a series of practical solutions from viewpoint of seeking common ground while reserving differences in this region. The main contents are as follows: First, the various obstacles that hinder the formation of regionalism, subregionalism and minilateralism in the Northeast Asia are discussed. That is to say, geopolitical realism, My Country First ideology, exclusive nationalism in the socio-historical context, and North Korea's latest provocations, etc. Second, this article explores the philosophy and basic principles of realizing Northeast Asia regionalism and minilateralism. Third, in the 21st century, Northeast Asia becomes the center of the world. It examines the core points, controversial focus and platform for building sub regionalism in the region. Finally, based on the institutional platform such as minilateralism and sub regionalism, the various ideas and practical plans of cross-border cooperation among major countries in Northeast Asia were discussed. Because there are a lot of obstacles, so first of all it is more appropriate to promote economic or functional minilateralism or sub regionalism than multilateral cooperation. In order to promote the formation of regionalism and minilateralism in Northeast Asia, the issues to be considered are as follows: First, for the sake of leading regional solidarity and minilateral economic cooperation, it is advisable for China, as a regional economic power, to implement a stable and responsible diplomacy. Secondly, regional solidarity based on credible politics and security should be promoted for a long time beyond the level of economic cooperation. Third, the primary prerequisite for the realization of Northeast Asian regionalism is that in the process of denuclearization of North Korea, the stability and peace mechanism of the Korean Peninsula should be established. Fourth, with the continued hegemonic competition between the United States and China in Northeast Asia, under the circumstance that countries in the region are pushed into so-called "East Asian Paradox", it is profoundly important for them to consider transition from the hostile relationship as the "Thucydides trap" to the order of "coexistence" in which competition and cooperation run side by side, and the two countries should explore a conversion plan for the foreign policy line. This mutual cooperation and peaceful coexistence of the US-China relationship will create a friendly atmosphere for the formation of regionalism in Northeast Asia. In the future, the cooperation of minilateralism in Northeast Asia will break the existing conflict between the maritime forces and the continental forces in order to promote peace. And along with the philosophy that "peace is economy", recent policies of common prosperity as the framework, such as China's "Belt and Road Initiative", North Korea's "Special Zone and Development Zone Policy", Russia's "New Eastern Policy", Japan's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and South Korea's The "Korean Peninsula New Economy Map" are organically linked and it should promote the so-called "networked regionalism".

• Strategy21
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• s.43
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• pp.273-302
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• 2018

1980년대 북 핵개발을 처음 발견 이후, 미국은 북한의 비핵화라는 정책목적달성을 위해 다양한 정책을 사용해 왔지만 현재까지 실패하였다. 미국의 대북 정책 실패의 결과는 북핵 문제의 고착화 속에서, 평양의 핵무기 개발 가속화 야기로 한반도 및 미국을 핵위협 속에 놓이게 하였다. 특히, 지난 해, 북미간의 가열된 공격적 수사와 행동에 의한 한반도 위기설은 절정에 달하였다. 해결의 실마리가 보이지 않던 한반도의 갈등 및 위기는, 지난 4월에 열린 남북 정상회담을 통해 25년간의 핵위협의 굴레를 벗어날 기회를 다시 한번 맞이하게 되었다. 남북 정상회담 이후 이어질 북미 정상회담 등 향후 미국의 정책은 한반도 비핵화를 위한 중요한 분수령에 다시 한번 서있다. 하지만, 과거의 25년간의 역사는 다시 맞이한 '한반도의 봄'에 대한 낙관적 희망만을 주지 않는다. 과거, 양자적, 다자적 협상을 이룸에도 불구하고, 북핵 문제는 다시 위기에 접어드는 반복된 패턴과 사이클 속에 악화 되어 왔기 때문이다. 비핵화의 분수령에 있는 미 정부는 다시 한번 과거의 정책을 뒤돌아 보고, 남북 정상회담을 통해 어렵게 맞이한 기회를 결실로 이룰 수 있도록 어느 때 보다 신중한 노력이 필요하다. 최근 몇 달간 북핵 문제는 경이로운 속도로 진전을 보였지만, 한순간의 정책의 실패는 최근 보여진 진전의 속도 이상의 속도로 문제를 악화 시킬 수 있으며, 그 결과는 작년 여름과 겨울의 위기보다 더욱 심각 할 수 있음을 명심해야 한다. 이러한 점에서 이 보고서는 과거의 역사 및 이론적 분석을 통해 과거 미국의 북핵정책 실패 원인을 분석하고 정책을 제언하는데 그 목적이 있다. 과거 미 북핵 실패의 원인은 크게 3가지로 보인다. 먼저, 포괄적인 그리고 북한 정권의 특성에서 비롯된 북핵 개발의 모티브를 정확히 이해하는데 실패하여, 북한의 정책적 계산을 변화 시키는데 실패 하였다. 둘째, 북한 문제를 둘러싼 외부적 복잡성이 미북핵 정책실패를 야기하였다. 한반도 문제는 과거부터 다양한 국가들의 이해관계에 둘러 싸여 왔다. 북핵 문제도 남북 및 미국을 비롯 중국 등 주변국의 복잡성이 불확실성을 가중시켜 문제를 더욱 복잡하게 하였으며, 미국의 대북 협상의 영향력을 약화 시켰다. 셋째, 과거 누적된 두 국가간의 불신은 협상 이후 상대의 신뢰 있는 이행에 대한 불신을 야기하여 미국의 정책의 효과성을 저해하였다. 미국은 북핵 개발 모티브에 대한 포괄적 이해와 한국 및 중국과의 다자외교로 과거의 실패를 극복하고 25년간의 북핵문제의 고리를 끊어야 할 것이다.