지점우량 자료의 분포형 설정과 내용안전년수에 따르는 확률강우량에 관한 고찰 - 국내 3개지점 서울, 부산 및 대구를 중심으로 -
-
- Water for future
- /
- v.5 no.1
- /
- pp.27-36
- /
- 1972
This thesis is the study of the rainfall probability depth in the major areas of Korea, such as Seoul, Pusan and Taegu. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the rainfall in connection with the safe planning of the hydraulic structures and with the project life. The methodology used in this paper is the statistical treatment of the rainfall data in the above three areas. The scheme of the paper is the following. 1. The complementation of the rainfall data We tried to select the maximm values among the values gained by the three methods: Fourier Series Method, Trend Diagram Method and Mean Value Method. By the selection of the maximum values we tried to complement the rainfall data lacking in order to prevent calamities. 2. The statistical treatment of the data The data are ordered by the small numbers, transformed into log,
A simplified model using the lifetime distribution has been presented to estimate the Mean Residual Life (MRL) of rubble-mound breakwaters, which is not like a stochastic process model based on time-dependent history data to the cumulative damage progress of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters involved in the lifetime distribution can be easily estimated by using the upper and lower limits of lifetime and their likelihood that made a judgement by several experts taking account of the initial design lifetime, the past sequences of loads, and others. The simplified model presented in this paper has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater with TTP armor layer. Wiener Process (WP)-based stochastic model also has been applied together with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique to the breakwater of the same condition having time-dependent cumulative damage to TTP armor layer. From the comparison of lifetime distribution obtained from each models including Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), it has found that the lifetime distributions of rubble-mound breakwater can be very satisfactorily fitted by log-normal distribution for all types of cumulative damage progresses, such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic deterioration which are feasible in the real situations. Finally, the MRL of rubble-mound breakwaters estimated by the simplified model presented in this paper have been compared with those by WP stochastic process. It can be shown that results of the presented simplified model have been identical with those of WP stochastic process until any ages in the range of MTT F regardless of the deterioration types. However, a little of differences have been seen at the ages in the neighborhood of MTTF, specially, for the linear and logarithmic deterioration of cumulative damages. For the accurate estimation of MRL of harbor structures, it may be desirable that the stochastic processes should be used to consider properly time-dependent uncertainties of damage deterioration. Nevertheless, the simplified model presented in this paper can be useful in the building of the MRL-based preventive maintenance planning for several kinds of harbor structures, because of which is not needed time-dependent history data about the damage deterioration of structures as mentioned above.
Purpose To retrospectively evaluate the chest computed tomography (CT) findings of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with mild clinical symptoms at a single hospital in South Korea. Materials and Methods CT scans of 87 COVID-19 patients [43 men and 44 women; median age: 41 years (interquartile range: 26.1-51.0 years)] with mild clinical symptoms (fever < 38℃ and no dyspnea) were evaluated. Results CT findings were normal in 39 (44.8%) and abnormal in 48 (55.2%) patients. Among the 48 patients with lung opacities, 17 (35.4%) had unilateral disease and 31 (64.6%) had bilateral disease. One (2.1%) patient showed subpleural distribution, 9 (18.8%) showed peribronchovascular distribution, and 38 (79.2%) showed subpleural and peribronchovascular distributions. Twenty-two (45.8%) patients had pure ground-glass opacities (GGOs) with no consolidation, 17 (35.4%) had mixed opacities dominated by GGOs, and 9 (18.8%) had mixed opacities dominated by consolidation. No patients demonstrated consolidation without GGOs. Conclusion The most common CT finding of COVID-19 in patients with mild clinical symptoms was bilateral multiple GGO-dominant lesions with subpleural and peribronchovascular distribution and lower lung predilection. The initial chest CT of almost half of COVID-19 patients with mild clinical symptoms showed no lung parenchymal lesions. Compared to relatively severe cases, mild cases were more likely to manifest as unilateral disease with pure GGOs or GGO-dominant mixed opacities and less likely to show air bronchogram.
Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.
Purpose : Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia has been to be developed frequently in school age children and adolescence and hard to see under 3 year-old children. But it seems to be increased in number of patients with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia under 3-year old in clinical practice in these days. We have aimed to examine the characteristics of clinical findings of Mycoplasma pneumonia under 3 year-old children. Methods : We had performed retrospective review of medical records of 30 patients with Mycoplasmal pneumonia under 3-year old children who admitted to Department of Pediatrics, Kyunghee University Hospital from Jan. 1994 to Dec. 1997. The diagnostic criteriae was Cold agglutinin titer>1:64 or Mycoplasma antibody titer>1:80. Results : Mycoplasmal pneumonia was 30 out of 235 cases(12.7%) of total pneumonia under 3 year old children. Male female ratio was 1.3 : 1 and age distributions were 0~1y : 0, 1~2y : 8, 2~3y : 22 cases. Clinical symptoms and signs were cough(100.0%), sputum(83.3%), fever(80.0%) rhinorrhea(33.3%), vomiting(33.3%), moist rale(86.7%), decreased breathing sound(26.7%), wheezing(20.0%), and pharyngeal injection(30.0%). Thirteen out of 30 cases(43.3%) had unilateral infiltration, 10 cases(33.4%) had bilateral infiltration, 1 case(3.3%) had pleural effusion, and 6 cases(20.0%) had negative findings on chest radiography and there was no cases of atelectasis. On laboratory findings, 6 out of 30 cases(20.0%) had leukocytosis, 1 case(3.3%) had neutrophilia, 10 cases(30.0%) had eosinophilia, 17 cases(56.7%) had increased ESR, and 18 cases(60.6%) had positive CRP. Positive cold agglutinin titers(>1 : 64) were 19 cases(63.3%), and positive mycoplasma antibody(M-ab) titers(>1 : 80) were 27 cases(93.3%). Mycoplasma antibody test was more valuable than cold agglutinin test for the diagnosis of Mycoplasmal pneumonia and there was no correlation between cold agglutinin titer and mycoplasma antibody titer. Mycoplasma-polymerase chain reaction(M-PCR) was done with 13 cases, 12 out of 13 cases(92.3%) were positive. M-PCR test was valuable to the diagnosis of Mycoplasmal pneumonia but it will be needed to further study for their clinical application. Among 30 cases, 5 cases(16.7%) had complications, 3 cases(10.0%) had skin rash, 1 case(3.3%) had pleural effusion, 1 case(3.3%) had arthralgia, but all complications were mild and recovered without residual sequelae. Conclusion : The occurrence of Mycoplasmal pneumonia under 3 year-old children was not rare from this study. Clinical characteristics of Mycoplasmal pneumonia under 3-year old were normal radiologic findings in many cases, low complication rate, mild clinical course, and tend to rapid recovery compared with general manifestations of Mycoplasmal infectionsin children and adolescence. There were likely to be missed patients with Mycoplasmal pneumonia which did not diagnose by conventional serologic tests that had low sensitivity and specificity. We have to pay attention to the Mycoplasmal infection of the young children with pneumonia during epidemic periods of Mycoplasmal infection.
The wall shear stress in the vicinity of end-to end anastomoses under steady flow conditions was measured using a flush-mounted hot-film anemometer(FMHFA) probe. The experimental measurements were in good agreement with numerical results except in flow with low Reynolds numbers. The wall shear stress increased proximal to the anastomosis in flow from the Penrose tubing (simulating an artery) to the PTFE: graft. In flow from the PTFE graft to the Penrose tubing, low wall shear stress was observed distal to the anastomosis. Abnormal distributions of wall shear stress in the vicinity of the anastomosis, resulting from the compliance mismatch between the graft and the host artery, might be an important factor of ANFH formation and the graft failure. The present study suggests a correlation between regions of the low wall shear stress and the development of anastomotic neointimal fibrous hyperplasia(ANPH) in end-to-end anastomoses. 30523 T00401030523 ^x Air pressure decay(APD) rate and ultrafiltration rate(UFR) tests were performed on new and saline rinsed dialyzers as well as those roused in patients several times. C-DAK 4000 (Cordis Dow) and CF IS-11 (Baxter Travenol) reused dialyzers obtained from the dialysis clinic were used in the present study. The new dialyzers exhibited a relatively flat APD, whereas saline rinsed and reused dialyzers showed considerable amount of decay. C-DAH dialyzers had a larger APD(11.70
The wall shear stress in the vicinity of end-to end anastomoses under steady flow conditions was measured using a flush-mounted hot-film anemometer(FMHFA) probe. The experimental measurements were in good agreement with numerical results except in flow with low Reynolds numbers. The wall shear stress increased proximal to the anastomosis in flow from the Penrose tubing (simulating an artery) to the PTFE: graft. In flow from the PTFE graft to the Penrose tubing, low wall shear stress was observed distal to the anastomosis. Abnormal distributions of wall shear stress in the vicinity of the anastomosis, resulting from the compliance mismatch between the graft and the host artery, might be an important factor of ANFH formation and the graft failure. The present study suggests a correlation between regions of the low wall shear stress and the development of anastomotic neointimal fibrous hyperplasia(ANPH) in end-to-end anastomoses. 30523 T00401030523 ^x Air pressure decay(APD) rate and ultrafiltration rate(UFR) tests were performed on new and saline rinsed dialyzers as well as those roused in patients several times. C-DAK 4000 (Cordis Dow) and CF IS-11 (Baxter Travenol) reused dialyzers obtained from the dialysis clinic were used in the present study. The new dialyzers exhibited a relatively flat APD, whereas saline rinsed and reused dialyzers showed considerable amount of decay. C-DAH dialyzers had a larger APD(11.70