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A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

The Correction Factor of Sensitivity in Gamma Camera - Based on Whole Body Bone Scan Image - (감마카메라의 Sensitivity 보정 Factor에 관한 연구 - 전신 뼈 영상을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Eun-Mi;Jung, Woo-Young;Ryu, Jae-Kwang;Kim, Dong-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.208-213
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: Generally a whole body bone scan has been known as one of the most frequently executed exams in the nuclear medicine fields. Asan medical center, usually use various gamma camera systems - manufactured by PHILIPS (PRECEDENCE, BRIGHTVIEW), SIEMENS (ECAM, ECAM signature, ECAM plus, SYMBIA T2), GE (INFINIA) - to execute whole body scan. But, as we know, each camera's sensitivity is not same so it is hard to consistent diagnosis of patients. So our purpose is when we execute whole body bone scans, we exclude uncontrollable factors and try to correct controllable factors such as inherent sensitivity of gamma camera. In this study, we're going to measure each gamma camera's sensitivity and study about reasonable correction factors of whole body bone scan to follow up patient's condition using different gamma cameras. Materials and Methods: We used the $^{99m}Tc$ flood phantom, it recommend by IAEA recommendation based on general counts rate of a whole body scan and measured counts rates by the use of various gamma cameras - PRECEDENCE, BRIGHTVIEW, ECAM, ECAM signature, ECAM plus, IFINIA - in Asan medical center nuclear medicine department. For measuring sensitivity, all gamma camera equipped LEHR collimator (Low Energy High Resolution multi parallel Collimator) and the $^{99m}Tc$ gamma spectrum was adjusted around 15% window level, the photo peak was set to 140-kev and acquirded for 60 sec and 120 sec in all gamma cameras. In order to verify whether can apply calculated correction factors to whole body bone scan or not, we actually conducted the whole body bone scan to 27 patients and we compared it analyzed that results. Results: After experimenting using $^{99m}Tc$ flood phantom, sensitivity of ECAM plus was highest and other sensitivity order of all gamma camera is ECAM signature, SYMBIA T2, ECAM, BRIGHTVIEW, IFINIA, PRECEDENCE. And yield sensitivity correction factor show each gamma camera's relative sensitivity ratio by yielded based on ECAM's sensitivity. (ECAM plus 1.07, ECAM signature 1.05, SYMBIA T2 1.03, ECAM 1.00, BRIGHTVIEW 0.90, INFINIA 0.83, PRECEDENCE 0.72) When analyzing the correction factor yielded by $^{99m}Tc$ experiment and another correction factor yielded by whole body bone scan, it shows statistically insignificant value (p<0.05) in whole body bone scan diagnosis. Conclusion: In diagnosing the bone metastasis of patients undergoing cancer, whole body bone scan has been conducted as follow up tests due to its good points (high sensitivity, non invasive, easily conducted). But as a follow up study, it's hard to perform whole body bone scan continuously using same gamma camera. If we use same gamma camera to patients, we have to consider effectiveness of equipment's change by time elapsed. So we expect that applying sensitivity correction factor to patients who tested whole body bone scan regularly will add consistence in diagnosis of patients.

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Home Economics teachers' concern on creativity and personality education in Home Economics classes: Based on the concerns based adoption model(CBAM) (가정과 교사의 창의.인성 교육에 대한 관심과 실행에 대한 인식 - CBAM 모형에 기초하여-)

  • Lee, In-Sook;Park, Mi-Jeong;Chae, Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.117-134
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to identify the stage of concern, the level of use, and the innovation configuration of Home Economics teachers regarding creativity and personality education in Home Economics(HE) classes. The survey questionnaires were sent through mails and e-mails to middle-school HE teachers in the whole country selected by systematic sampling and convenience sampling. Questionnaires of the stages of concern and the levels of use developed by Hall(1987) were used in this study. 187 data were used for the final analysis by using SPSS/window(12.0) program. The results of the study were as following: First, for the stage of concerns of HE teachers on creativity and personality education, the information stage of concerns(85.51) was the one with the highest response rate and the next high in the following order: the management stage of concerns(81.88), the awareness stage of concerns(82.15), the refocusing stage of concerns(68.80), the collaboration stage of concerns(61.97), and the consequence stage of concerns(59.76). Second, the levels of use of HE teachers on creativity and personality education was highest with the mechanical levels(level 3; 21.4%) and the next high in the following order: the orientation levels of use(level 1; 20.9%), the refinement levels(level 5; 17.1%), the non-use levels(level 0; 15.0%), the preparation levels(level 2; 10.2%), the integration levels(level 6; 5.9%), the renewal levels(level 7; 4.8%), the routine levels(level 4; 4.8%). Third, for the innovation configuration of HE teachers on creativity and personality education, more than half of the HE teachers(56.1%) mainly focused on personality education in their HE classes; 31.0% of the HE teachers performed both creativity and personality education; a small number of teachers(6.4%) focused on creativity education; the same number of teachers(6.4%) responded that they do not focus on neither of the two. Examining the level and type of performance HE teachers applied, the average score on the performance of creativity and personality education was 3.76 out of 5.00 and the mean of creativity component was 3.59 and of personality component was 3.94, higher than standard. For the creativity education, openness/sensitivity(3.97) education was performed most and the next most in the following order: problem-solving skill(3.79), curiosity/interest(3.73), critical thinking(3.63), problem-finding skill(3.61), originality(3.57), analogy(3.47), fluency/adaptability(3.46), precision(3.46), imagination(3.37), and focus/sympathy(3.37). For the personality education, the following components were performed in order from most to least: power of execution(4.07), cooperation/consideration/just(4.06), self-management skill(4.04), civic consciousness(4.04), career development ability(4.03), environment adaptability(3.95), responsibility/ownership(3.94), decision making(3.89), trust/honesty/promise(3.88), autonomy(3.86), and global competency(3.55). Regarding what makes performing creativity and personality education difficult, most HE teachers(64.71%) chose the lack of instructional materials and 40.11% of participants chose the lack of seminar and workshop opportunity. 38.5% chose the difficulty of developing an evaluation criteria or an evaluation tool while 25.67% responded that they do not know any means of performing creativity and personality education. Regarding the better way to support for creativity and personality education, the HE teachers chose in order from most to least: 'expansion of hands-on activities for students related to education on creativity and personality'(4.34), 'development of HE classroom culture putting emphasis on creativity and personality'(4.29), 'a proper curriculum on creativity and personality education that goes along with students' developmental stages'(4.27), 'securing enough human resource and number of professors who will conduct creativity and personality education'(4.21), 'establishment of the concept and value of the education on creativity and personality'(4.09), and 'educational promotion on creativity and personality education supported by local communities and companies'(3.94).

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An Essay on the Change of Jinju Sword Dance after being designated as an Important Intangible Cultural Asset (<진주검무> 중요무형문화재 지정 이후의 변화에 관한 소고)

  • Lee, Jong Sook
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.4-21
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate changes of Jinju Sword Dance, characteristics of the changes, and the current condition of its preservation and succession after the designation as the important intangible cultural property no. 12 in January 16th, 1967. In other words, this study understands the situation which has established the present state of after changes over generations. As of now. the year of 2015, the 3 generation holders have been approved since 1967. In 1967, 8 members of $1^{st}$ generation holders were selected from gisaengs of Gwonbeon. However, the succession training was incomplete due to conflicts among the holders, the deaths of some holders, and economic activities of the individuals. As the need of a pivot for succession training and activities was rising, Seong, Gye-Ok was additionally approved as the $2^{nd}$ generation holder on June $21^{st}$, 1978. Seong, Gye-Ok who had never been a gisaeng had dramatically changed with a lot of new attempts. After the death of Seong, Gye-Ok in 2009, Kim, Tae-Yeon and Yu, Yeong-Hee were approved as the $3^{rd}$ generation holders in February, 2010. Based on the resources including the "Cultural Research Reports of Important Intangible Cultural Properties" in 1966 and videos up to 2014, the changes of the dance and surroundings are as follow. 1. The formation of musical accompaniment has been changed during the 3 generations. In the video of the $1^{st}$ generation(in 1970), the performance lasted about 15 minutes, whereas the performance lasted 25 minutes in the video of the $2^{nd}$ generation. Yumbuldoduri rhythm was considered as Ginyumbul(Sangryeongsan) and played more slowly. The original dance requiring only 15 rhythms was extended to 39 rhythms to provide longer performance time. In the $3^{rd}$ generation, the dance recovered 15 rhythms using the term Ginyumbul. The facts that Yumbul was played for 3 minutes in the $1^{st}$ generation but for 5 minutes in the 3rd generation shows that there was tendency pursuing the slowness from the $2^{nd}$ generation. 2. For the composition of the Dance, the performance included additional 20 rhythms of Ginyumbul and Ah(亞)-shaped formation from the $2^{nd}$ generation. From the $3^{rd}$ generation, the performance excluded the formation which had no traditional base. For the movement of the Dance, the bridge poses of Ggakjittegi and Bangsukdoli have been visibly inflexible. Also, the extention of time value in 1 beat led the Dance less vibrant. 3. At the designation as an important intangible cultural property (in 1967), the swords with rotatable necks were used, whereas the dancers had been using the swords with non-rotatable necks since late 1970s when the $2^{nd}$ generation holder began to used them. The swords in the "Research Reports" (in 1966) was pointy and semilunar, whereas the straight swords are being used currently. The use of the straight swords can be confirmed from the videos after 1970. 4. There is no change in wearing Jeonlib, Jeonbok, and Hansam, whereas the arrangement of Saekdong of Hansam was different from the arrangement shown in the "Research Reports". Also, dancers were considered to begin wearing the navy skirts when the swords with non-rotatable necks began to be used. Those results showed that has been actively changed for 50 years after the designation. The $2^{nd}$ generation holder, Seong, Gye-Ok, was the pivot of the changes. However, , which was already designated as an important intangible cultural property, is considered to be only a victim of the change experiment from the project to restore Gyobang culture in Jinju, and it is a priority to conduct studies with historical legitimacy. First of all, the slowing beat should be emphasized as the main fact to reduce both the liveliness and dynamic beauty of the Dance.

The hydrodynamic characteristics of the canvas kite - 2. The characteristics of the triangular canvas kite - (캔버스 카이트의 유체역학적 특성에 관한 연구 - 2. 삼각형 캔버스 카이트의 특성 -)

  • Bae, Bong-Seong;Bae, Jae-Hyun;An, Heui-Chun;Lee, Ju-Hee;Shin, Jung-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.206-213
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    • 2004
  • As far as an opening device of fishing gears is concerned, applications of a kite are under development around the world. The typical examples are found in the opening device of the stow net on anchor and the buoyancy material of the trawl. While the stow net on anchor has proved its capability for the past 20 years, the trawl has not been wildly used since it has been first introduced for the commercial use only without sufficient studies and thus has revealed many drawbacks. Therefore, the fundamental hydrodynamics of the kite itself need to ne studied further. Models of plate and canvas kite were deployed in the circulating water tank for the mechanical test. For this situation lift and drag tests were performed considering a change in the shape of objects, which resulted in a different aspect ratio of rectangle and trapezoid. The results obtained from the above approaches are summarized as follows, where aspect ratio, attack angle, lift coefficient and maximum lift coefficient are denoted as A, B, $C_L$ and $C_{Lmax}$ respectively : 1. Given the triangular plate, $C_{Lmax}$ was produced as 1.26${\sim}$1.32 with A${\leq}$1 and 38$^{\circ}$B${\leq}$42$^{\circ}$. And when A${\geq}$1.5 and 20$^{\circ}$${\leq}$B${\leq}$50$^{\circ}$, $C_L$ was around 0.85. Given the inverted triangular plate, $C_{Lmax}$ was 1.46${\sim}$1.56 with A${\leq}$1 and 36$^{\circ}$B${\leq}$38$^{\circ}$. And When A${\geq}$1.5 and 22$^{\circ}$B${\leq}$26$^{\circ}$, $C_{Lmax}$ was 1.05${\sim}$1.21. Given the triangular kite, $C_{Lmax}$ was produced as 1.67${\sim}$1.77 with A${\leq}$1 and 46$^{\circ}$B${\leq}$48$^{\circ}$. And when A${\geq}$1.5 and 20$^{\circ}$B${\leq}$50$^{\circ}$, $C_L$ was around 1.10. Given the inverted triangular kite, $C_{Lmax}$ was 1.44${\sim}$1.68 with A${\leq}$1 and 28$^{\circ}$B${\leq}$32$^{\circ}$. And when A${\geq}$1.5 and 18$^{\circ}$B${\leq}$24$^{\circ}$, $C_{Lmax}$ was 1.03${\sim}$1.18. 2. For a model with A=1/2, an increase in B caused an increase in $C_L$ until $C_L$ has reached the maximum. Then there was a tendency of a very gradual decrease or no change in the value of $C_L$. For a model with A=2/3, the tendency of $C_L$ was similar to the case of a model with A=1/2. For a model with A=1, an increase in B caused an increase in $C_L$ until $C_L$ has reached the maximum. And the tendency of $C_L$ didn't change dramatically. For a model with A=1.5, the tendency of $C_L$ as a function of B was changed very small as 0.75${\sim}$1.22 with 20$^{\circ}$B${\leq}$50$^{\circ}$. For a model with A=2, the tendency of $C_L$ as a function of B was almost the same in the triangular model. There was no considerable change in the models with 20$^{\circ}$B${\leq}$50$^{\circ}$. 3. The inverted model's $C_L$ as a function of increase of B reached the maximum rapidly, then decreased gradually compared to the non-inverted models. Others were decreased dramatically. 4. The action point of dynamic pressure in accordance with the attack angle was close to the rear area of the model with small attack angle, and with large attack angle, the action point was close to the front part of the model. 5. There was camber vertex in the position in which the fluid pressure was generated, and the triangular canvas had large value of camber vertex when the aspect ratio was high, while the inverted triangular canvas was versa. 6. All canvas kite had larger camber ratio when the aspect ratio was high, and the triangular canvas had larger one when the attack angle was high, while the inverted triangluar canvas was versa.

A Study on Traditional Ideology and the 'Tradition' of the Theatre company Minye in 1970s (1970년대 전통 이념과 극단 민예극장의 '전통')

  • Kim, Ki-Ran
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.45-86
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    • 2020
  • In this article, the "modernization of the tradition" constructed on the cultural politics and the way in which it appropriated in the korean theatre in the 1970s were analyzed. It is trying to reveal its implications. It is also a work to critically review the aspects of self-censorship in the korean theatre in the 70s. To that end, we looked at the theatre company Minye Theatre, which preoccupied the traditional discussions in the 1970s by creating national dramas. Until now, the evaluation of the theatre company Minye Theatre in the 1970s has focused on the achievement on the directing of Heo Gyu, who promoted the succession and transformation of tradition. However, the traditional ideology constructed in the state-led cultural politics in the 70s and the way in which it was operated cannot be evaluated only in terms of artistic achievement. The ideology of tradition is selected according to the selective criteria of the subject to appropriate tradition. What's important is that certain objects are excluded, discarded, re-elected, re-interpreted and re-recognized in the selection process of selected traditional ideology. This is the situation in the '70s, when tradition was constantly re-recognized amid differences between the decadent and the disorder that were then designated as non-cultural, and led to a new way of appropriate. The nation-led traditional discussion of the '70s legalized the tradition with stable values, one of the its way was the national literary and artistic support. Under the banner of modernization of tradition, theatre company Minye preoccupied the discussions on the tradition and presented folk drama as a new theatre. As an alternative to the crisis of korean theatre at the time, the Minye chose the method of inheriting and transforming tradition. It is noteworthy that Heo Gyu, the representative director of the theatre company Minye, recognized the succession and transformation of traditional performance as both a calling and an experiment. For Heo Gyu, tradition was accepted as an irresistible stable value and an unquestionable calling, and as a result, his performance, filled with excessive traditional practices, became overambitious, especially when it failed to reflect the present-here reality, the repeated use of traditional expression tools resulted in skilled craftsmanship, not artistic creation. The traditional ideology of the 70s unfolds in a new aspect of appropriation in the 80s. In 1986, Son Jin-Cheok, Kim Seong-nyeo, and Yoon Mun-sik, who were key members of the theatre company Minye Theatre, left the theatre to create the theatre company Michu, and secured popularity through Madangnori(popular folk yard theatre). Son Jin-Cheok's Madangnori is overbearing through satire and humor. It gained popularity by criticizing and mocking state power. On the other hand, not only the form of traditional performance, but also the university-centered Madanggeuk movement, which appropriated on the spirit of resistance from the people to its traditional values, has rapidly grown. In the field of traditional discussions of the 70s, Madanggeuk was self-born through appropriation in which the spirit of resistance of the people is used as a traditional value. Madanggeuk as well as Michu that achieved the popularization of Madangnori cannot be discussed solely by the artistic achievement of the modernization of tradition. Critics of korean theatre in response to state-led traditional discussions in the 70s was focused only on the qualitative achievement of performing arts based on artistry. I am very sorry for that. As a result, the popular resistance of the Madanggeuk and the Madangnori were established in the 'difference' with the traditions of the theatre company Minye Theatre. Theatre company Minye Theatre was an opportunity for the modernization of tradition, but the fact that it did not continuously produce significant differences. This is the meaning and limitation of the "tradition" of the theatre company Minye Theatre in the history of korean theatre in the 1970s.

R and K Factors for an Application of RUSLE on the Slope Soils in Kangwon-Do, Korea (강원도 경사지 토양 유실 예측용 신USLE의 적용을 위한 강수 인자와 토양 침식성 인자의 검토)

  • Jung, Yeong-Sang;Kwon, Young-Ki;Lim, Hyung-Sik;Ha, Sang-Keun;Yang, Jae-E
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 1999
  • Rainfall factor. R, and soil factor, K were estimated to use the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to predict the amount of soil erosion from a land on slope in Kangwon-do, Korea. The average of R factor was 405 with a range from 251 to 601. The R factor differed among regions. The R factor at Taegwalryung, in the highland region, was 409 and those at Inje and Hongchon, in the mid mountainous regions, ranged from 310 to 493. The R factors at Wonju and Chuncheon, in the plain regions, ranged from 505 to 601. The R factors at Sokcho, Kangnung and Samchok, in the east coastal region, which ranged from 251 to 368, were lowee than those in the western part of the Taebaeg Mountains. The R factor during the winter including the effect of winter freezing and thawing was 12 to 30% of the annual average value in the east coastal and highland regions, while that in the western part of Taebaeg Mountains was lower than 7%. The average of K factor in the surface soil was 0.21 with a range from 0.06 to 0.42. The K factors of Odae and Weoljeong serieses were the lowest, while that of Imog was the highest. The average of K factor in the subsoil was 0.28 with a range from 0.07 to 0.45. The K factor of the subsoil was 1.3 times higher than that of top soil. The average of K factor in he soil including the effect of the gravel covering and percolation was 0.18 with a range from 0.03 to 0.33. In contrast. the K factor excluding the effect of the gravel covering was lower than this. The average of K factor in the frozen subsoil was 0.33, which was 1.6 times higher than that of the non frozen subsoil.

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A Study on the Stiffness of CBA(Corner Block with Anchor Bolt) Joint in Knockdown Type Table Furniture (조립식(組立式) 탁자(卓子)의 CBA접합부(接合部) 강성(剛性)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Chung, Woo-Yang;Lee, Phil-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.34-64
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    • 1989
  • Corner block with anchor bolt(CBA) joint method used in knock-down type table furniture manufacturing can reduce the packing and transporting cost. Unfortunately. it also has the disastrous defect to be loosend and unstable during the service life mainly due to fatigue and creep(repeated and prolonged loading). So 22 joint groups constructed were tested to evaluate the effect of some design factors related to the size of side rail(apron). block attachment to side rail. and the number of anchor bolt as well as the effect of the type of corner block(mitered type vs. rectangular type) Usable strength from the stiffness coefficients of each joint group were analysed with SPSS /PC+ and described as the criteria of CBA joint construction. The conclusions were as follows: The height of side rail(50, 75 and 100 mm) and the addition of polyvinyl acetate(PVAc) emulsion in the corner block attactment to side rail had the effect on raising the usable strength of CBA joint with remarkable high significance. And the effect of 2 - anchor bolts was also superior to that of 1 - bolt significantly. However. the thickness of side rail(22 mm vs. 25 mm) had no effect on the strengthening the table joint rigidity. Mitered type corner block joint appeared to he recommendable for CBA jointed table construction rather than the rectangular type one regardless of the method of block attachment to side rail. The best result identified from Duncan's multiple comparison was in the construction with 25 mm thick and 100 mm height of side rail fastened using 2 - anchor bolts in mitered type corner block. But it would be reasonable to use 22 mm thick & 75 mm high side rail and mitered corner block with PVAc emulsion & 2 bolts considering the productivity and production cost down in the MDF furniture manufacturing industries.

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Analysis of Trading Performance on Intelligent Trading System for Directional Trading (방향성매매를 위한 지능형 매매시스템의 투자성과분석)

  • Choi, Heung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.187-201
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    • 2011
  • KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

A Study on the Aesthetic Emotion and Creativity of 'Objet Animation' -Focused on the analysis of 'Objet' type of cultural arts education outcomes- ('오브제(Object) 애니메이션'의 미학적 정서와 창의성에 관한 연구 -문화예술교육 결과물의 '오브제(Object)' 유형 분석을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Hyun-Young;Kim, Jae-Woong
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.50
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    • pp.43-73
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    • 2018
  • This is a study on 'Objet' in animation culture art education. Research on the use of Objet in modern art is actively under way. From Cubism to Dadaism, Surrealism, Futurism and Pop art, it is no exaggeration to say that the Objet is stepping with modern art. In addition, Objet has a remarkable value in the field of visual arts expressing 'motion' such as kinetic art, video art, media art, and animation. However, there are not many cases of classifying and studying the types of Objets used in artworks. Therefore, this researcher has been influenced by the surrealism discourse and prepared six types of Objets type analysis framework. And the research focused on 'the aesthetic emotion and educational aspect of creativity improvement' of Objet animation was conducted. The type analysis framework is named as a drawing Objet, Objet of existence, a morphine Objet, epidermis Objet, assigned Objet and assemblage Objet and this type is presented and analyzed with case image. The data used in this study was focused on the outcome of Objet animation that were trained for non-experts in culture and arts education. This aesthetic emotion refers to Freud's desire for life (Eros) as Attraction, and desire for death (Thanatos) as Uncanny (fearful unfamiliarity) and explains the conflicting concept with the Animism, the indigenous religion. Next, educational aspects of Objet animation creativity improvement in relation to the term 'functional fixedness' was discussed as described by Gestalt psychologist Karl Duncker (1903-1940). Overcoming the functional fixedness is a phenomenon that is fixed only to the functional aspects of things and can't be changed. In this study, the educational aspect of creativity improvement was demonstrated as a case of overcoming the functional fixedness through 'Objet Animation' culture and art education. Ultimately, this study is to prove the aesthetic emotion and creativity of the Objet animation by analyzing Objet types. Furthermore, it is meaningful to suggest direction when using 'Objet Animation' in culture and arts education.