• 제목/요약/키워드: Non-parametric Prediction

검색결과 67건 처리시간 0.022초

Prediction of shear strength and drift capacity of corroded reinforced concrete structural shear walls

  • Yang, Zhihong;Li, Bing
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제83권2호
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    • pp.245-257
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    • 2022
  • As the main lateral load resisting system in high-rise reinforced concrete structures, the mechanical performance of shear wall has a significant impact on the structure, especially for high-rise buildings. Steel corrosion has been recognized as an important factor affecting the mechanical performance and durability of the reinforced concrete structures. To investigate the effect on the seismic behaviour of corroded reinforced concrete shear wall induced by corrosion, analytical investigations and simulations were done to observe the effect of corrosion on the ultimate seismic capacity and drift capacity of shear walls. To ensure the accuracy of the simulation software, several validations were made using both non-corroded and corroded reinforced concrete shear walls based on some test results in previous literature. Thereafter, a parametric study, including 200 FE models, was done to study the influence of some critical parameters on corroded structural shear walls with boundary element. These parameters include corrosion levels, axial force ratio, aspect ratio, and concrete compressive strength. The results obtained would then be used to propose equations to predict the seismic resistance and drift capacity of shear walls with various corrosion levels.

THREE-STAGED RISK EVALUATION MODEL FOR BIDDING ON INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

  • Wooyong Jung;Seung Heon Han
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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    • pp.534-541
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    • 2011
  • Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

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A SE Approach for Real-Time NPP Response Prediction under CEA Withdrawal Accident Conditions

  • Felix Isuwa, Wapachi;Aya, Diab
    • 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.75-93
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    • 2022
  • Machine learning (ML) data-driven meta-model is proposed as a surrogate model to reduce the excessive computational cost of the physics-based model and facilitate the real-time prediction of a nuclear power plant's transient response. To forecast the transient response three machine learning (ML) meta-models based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs); specifically, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and a sequence combination of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and LSTM are developed. The chosen accident scenario is a control element assembly withdrawal at power concurrent with the Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP). The transient response was obtained using the best estimate thermal hydraulics code, MARS-KS, and cross-validated against the Design and control document (DCD). DAKOTA software is loosely coupled with MARS-KS code via a python interface to perform the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty Quantification (BEPU) analysis and generate a time series database of the system response to train, test and validate the ML meta-models. Key uncertain parameters identified as required by the CASU methodology were propagated using the non-parametric Monte-Carlo (MC) random propagation and Latin Hypercube Sampling technique until a statistically significant database (181 samples) as required by Wilk's fifth order is achieved with 95% probability and 95% confidence level. The three ML RNN models were built and optimized with the help of the Talos tool and demonstrated excellent performance in forecasting the most probable NPP transient response. This research was guided by the Systems Engineering (SE) approach for the systematic and efficient planning and execution of the research.

유전자 프로그래밍을 이용한 고속도로 사고예측모형 (A Crash Prediction Model for Expressways Using Genetic Programming)

  • 곽호찬;김동규;고승영;이청원
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.369-379
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    • 2014
  • 전통적인 사고예측모형은 통계적 회귀분석에 주로 의존하였으나, 이는 자료 분포 및 함수 형태에 대한 가정에 따른 한계를 가지고 있다. 이에 따라 일부 연구는 신경망 등의 비모수적 기법을 모형 구축에 활용하였으나, 이는 독립변수와 종속변수 간의 직접적인 관계 규명이 어렵다는 한계가 있다. 유전자 프로그래밍 기법은 모형 개발에 특별한 가정이 필요없고, 사고요인 규명이 가능하다는 장점이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 고속도로의 사고예측에 유전자 프로그래밍 기법을 적용함으로써 이러한 한계를 극복하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 경부고속도로에서 최근 3년간(2010-2012년) 구득된 자료를 활용하였으며, 보다 세밀한 사고 특성 규명을 위해 고속도로 구간을 직선 구간과 곡선 구간으로 구분하였다. 사고 발생에 중요한 영향을 미치는 변수를 선택하기 위하여 랜덤 포레스트 기법을 이용하였으며, 최종 선택된 변수들을 활용하여 사고예측을 위한 유전자 프로그래밍 모형을 구축하였다. 구축된 모형의 예측 성능을 평가하기 위해 음이항 회귀모형과 비교해본 결과, 유전자 프로그래밍 모형의 예측 성능이 더 우수한 것으로 나타났다.

터빈 블레이드 형상 최적설계를 위한 전산 직교배열 기반 피로수명 예측 모델 개발 (Development of Computational Orthogonal Array based Fatigue Life Prediction Model for Shape Optimization of Turbine Blade)

  • 이광기;한승호
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제34권5호
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    • pp.611-617
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    • 2010
  • 터빈 블레이드와 같은 시스템의 피로수명은 형상 설계변수의 변화에 따라 비선형적으로 복잡하게 나타난다. 방대한 계산시간이 요구되는 이러한 시스템의 CAE 기반 파라메트릭 설계최적화 문제에 근사기법인 크리깅 메타모델 방법이 활용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 터빈 블레이드의 피로수명을 향상시키기 위하여, 설계변수 변화에 따른 피로수명의 비선형성을 고려함은 물론 직교성과 균형성을 모두 만족하는 다 수준 전산 실험계획법을 수행하여 크리깅 메타모델을 구축하였다. 크리깅 메타모델로부터 만족도 함수를 적용하여 피로 수명을 최적화하였고, 몬테카를로 모의실험법을 적용한 식스시그마 최적설계를 수행하여 피로수명의 결함률을 향상시킨 최적해의 강건성을 확보하였다.

Ultimate lateral capacity of two dimensional plane strain rectangular pile in clay

  • Keawsawasvong, Suraparb;Ukritchon, Boonchai
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.235-252
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents a new numerical solution of the ultimate lateral capacity of rectangular piles in clay. The two-dimensional plane strain finite element was employed to determine the limit load of this problem. A rectangular pile is subjected to purely lateral loading along either its major or minor axes. Complete parametric studies were performed for two dimensionless variables including: (1) the aspect ratios of rectangular piles were studied in the full range from plates to square piles loaded along either their major or minor axes; and (2) the adhesion factors between the soil-pile interface were studied in the complete range from smooth surfaces to rough surfaces. It was found that the dimensionless load factor of rectangular piles showed a highly non-linear function with the aspect ratio of piles and a slightly non-linear function with the adhesion factor at the soil-pile interface. In addition, the dimensionless load factor of rectangular piles loaded along the major axis was significantly higher than that loaded along the minor axis until it converged to the same value at square piles. The solutions of finite element analyses were verified with the finite element limit analysis for selected cases. The empirical equation of the dimensionless load factor of rectangular piles was also proposed based on the data of finite element analysis. Because of the plane strain condition of the top view section, results can be only applied to the full-flow failure mechanism around the pile for the prediction of limiting pressure at the deeper length of a very long pile with full tension interface that does not allow any separation at soil-pile interfaces.

Static impedance functions for monopiles supporting offshore wind turbines in nonhomogeneous soils-emphasis on soil/monopile interface characteristics

  • Abed, Younes;Bouzid, Djillali Amar;Bhattacharya, Subhamoy;Aissa, Mohammed H.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제10권5호
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    • pp.1143-1179
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    • 2016
  • Offshore wind turbines are considered as a fundamental part to develop substantial, alternative energy sources. In this highly flexible structures, monopiles are usually used as support foundations. Since the monopiles are large diameter (3.5 to 7 m) deep foundations, they result in extremely stiff short monopiles where the slenderness (length to diameter) may range between 5 and 10. Consequently, their elastic deformation patterns under lateral loading differ from those of small diameter monopiles usually employed for supporting structures in offshore oil and gas industry. For this reason, design recommendations (API and DNV) are not appropriate for designing foundations for offshore wind turbine structures as they have been established on the basis of full-scale load tests on long, slender and flexible piles. Furthermore, as these facilities are very sensitive to rotations and dynamic changes in the soil-pile system, the accurate prediction of monopile head displacement and rotation constitutes a design criterion of paramount importance. In this paper, the Fourier Series Aided Finite Element Method (FSAFEM) is employed for the determination of static impedance functions of monopiles for OWT subjected to horizontal force and/or to an overturning moment, where a non-homogeneous soil profile has been considered. On the basis of an extensive parametric study, and in order to address the problem of head stiffness of short monopiles, approximate analytical formulae are obtained for lateral stiffness $K_L$, rotational stiffness $K_R$ and cross coupling stiffness $K_{LR}$ for both rough and smooth interfaces. Theses expressions which depend only on the values of the monopile slenderness $L/D_p$ rather than the relative soil/monopile rigidity $E_p/E_s$ usually found in the offshore platforms designing codes (DNV code for example) have been incorporated in the expressions of the OWT natural frequency of four wind farm sites. Excellent agreement has been found between the computed and the measured natural frequencies.

CMIP5 GCMs의 근 미래 한반도 극치강수 불확실성 전망 및 빈도분석 (The Uncertainty of Extreme Rainfall in the Near Future and its Frequency Analysis over the Korean Peninsula using CMIP5 GCMs)

  • 윤선권;조재필
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제48권10호
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    • pp.817-830
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오의 미래 전망 불확실성 요소를 감안한 근 미래(2011~2040년) 극치 강수전망과 빈도분석을 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) 9개 GCMs (General Circulation Models)를 사용하여 수행하였다. 또한, 기후자료의 유역규모 비모수적 상세화 및 편이보정 기법을 적용하여, 다중 모델 앙상블(MME)을 통한 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과, RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 시나리오 모두 한반도 근 미래 극치 강수특성인자의 연간 변동성과 불확실성이 커지는 것으로 분석되었으며, 강우빈도해석 결과 2040년까지 50년과 100년 빈도 확률강수량이 최대 4.2~10.9% 증가할 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구 결과는 다중모델 앙상블 GCMs의 불확실성을 고려한 국가수자원 장기종합개발계획과 기후변화 적응대책 마련 등 기후변화 방재관련 정책결정 및 의사결정 지원 자료로 활용이 가능할 것이다.

Transmission of ultrasonic guided wave for damage detection in welded steel plate structures

  • Liu, Xinpei;Uy, Brian;Mukherjee, Abhijit
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.445-461
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    • 2019
  • The ultrasonic guided wave-based technique has become one of the most promising methods in non-destructive evaluation and structural health monitoring, because of its advantages of large area inspection, evaluating inaccessible areas on the structure and high sensitivity to small damage. To further advance the development of damage detection technologies using ultrasonic guided waves for the inspection of welded components in structures, the transmission characteristics of the ultrasonic guided waves propagating through welded joints with various types of defects or damage in steel plates are studied and presented in this paper. A three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) model considering the different material properties of the mild steel, high strength steel and austenitic stainless steel plates and their corresponding welded joints as well as the interaction condition of the steel plate and welded joint, is developed. The FE model is validated against analytical solutions and experimental results reported in the literature and is demonstrated to be capable of providing a reliable prediction on the features of ultrasonic guided wave propagating through steel plates with welded joints and interacting with defects. Mode conversion and scattering analysis of guided waves transmitted through the different types of weld defects in steel plates are performed by using the validated FE model. Parametric studies are undertaken to elucidate the effects of several basic parameters for various types of weld defects on the transmission performance of guided waves. The findings of this research can provide a better understanding of the transmission behaviour of ultrasonic guided waves propagating through welded joints with defects. The method could be used for improving the performance of guided wave damage detection methods.

Flexural behavior of RC beams retrofitted by ultra-high performance fiber-reinforced concrete

  • Meraji, Leila;Afshin, Hasan;Abedi, Karim
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.159-172
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents an investigation into the flexural behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) beams retrofitted by ultra-high performance fiber-reinforced concrete (UHPFRC) layers. The experimental study has been conducted in two parts. In the first part, four methods of retrofitting with UHPFRC layers in both the up and down sides of the beams have been proposed and their efficiency in the bonding of the normal concrete and ultra-high performance fiber-reinforced concrete has been discussed. The results showed that using the grooving method and the pre-casted UHPFRC layers in comparison with the sandblasting method and the cast-in-place UHPFRC layers leads to increase the load carrying capacity and the energy absorption capacity and causes high bond strength between two concretes. In the second part of the experimental study, the tests have been conducted on the beams with single UHPFRC layer in the down side and in the up side, using the effective retrofitting method chosen from the first part. The results are compared with those of non-retrofitted beam and the results of the first part of experimental study. The results showed that the retrofitted beam with two UHPFRC layers in the up and down sides has the highest energy absorption and load carrying capacity. A finite element analysis was applied to prediction the flexural behavior of the composite beams. A good agreement was achieved between the finite element and experimental results. Finally, a parametric study was carried out on full-scale retrofitted beams. The results indicated that in all retrofitted beams with UHPFRC in single and two sides, increasing of the UHPFRC layer thickness causes the load carrying capacity to be increased. Also, increases of the normal concrete compressive strength improved the cracking load of the beams.