• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제24권5호
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• pp.519-526
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 인명구조활동을 지원하기 위한 피난동선예측 알고리즘 개발의 첫 단계로 피난동선예측 알고리즘의 개념을 정립하고 그 타당성을 수치적으로 명확히 제시하였다. 제안하는 알고리즘은 평상시 선박내 모니터링 시스템으로부터 지속적으로 승객이동 데이터를 취득, 분석, 정형화하고, 재난발생시 이 데이터와 예측 툴을 활용해 도출한 승선자의 피난동선예측 정보를 구조자에게 제공하여 인명피해를 최소화시키는 프로세스로 요약할 수 있다. 피난훈련을 통해 피난특성 데이터를 취득하였고 이를 기존 인명피난예측 툴에 입력하여 피난특성을 예측한 결과, 예측 툴의 구조적 원인으로 인해 가시거리가 충분히 확보되고 피난경로를 충분히 숙지한 상황에서의 피난 시나리오(SN1)에서만 신뢰할 만한 예측결과가 도출되었다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 알고리즘의 타당성을 확인하기 위해 타 분야의 예측 툴을 사용하여 피난특성을 예측한 결과, 제안 알고리즘이 구현될 경우 평균피난시간예측값과 피난동선(지점경유)예측값이 각각 0.6 ~ 6.9 %, 0.6 ~ 3.6 % 범위의 오차에서 실측값과 매우 유사한 경향을 보였다. 향후 선내 모니터링 데이터를 분석하고 이를 활용한 예측성능이 우수한 피난동선예측 알고리즘을 개발할 계획이다.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.833-841
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• 2008

Principal component-genetic algorithm-multiparameter linear regression (PC-GA-MLR) and principal component-genetic algorithm-artificial neural network (PC-GA-ANN) models were applied for prediction of melting point for 323 drug-like compounds. A large number of theoretical descriptors were calculated for each compound. The first 234 principal components (PC’s) were found to explain more than 99.9% of variances in the original data matrix. From the pool of these PC’s, the genetic algorithm was employed for selection of the best set of extracted PC’s for PC-MLR and PC-ANN models. The models were generated using fifteen PC’s as variables. For evaluation of the predictive power of the models, melting points of 64 compounds in the prediction set were calculated. Root-mean square errors (RMSE) for PC-GA-MLR and PC-GA-ANN models are 48.18 and $12.77{^{\circ}C}$, respectively. Comparison of the results obtained by the models reveals superiority of the PC-GA-ANN relative to the PC-GA-MLR and the recently proposed models (RMSE = $40.7{^{\circ}C}$). The improvements are due to the fact that the melting point of the compounds demonstrates non-linear correlations with the principal components.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.155-165
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• 2015

기업부도예측은 재무 분야에 있어 중요한 연구주제 중 하나로 1960년대 이후부터 꾸준히 연구되어져 왔다. 국내의 경우, IMF 사태 이후 기업부도예측에 관한 중요성이 강조되고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 보다 정확한 기업부도예측을 위해 높은 예측력과 동시에 과적합화의 문제를 해결한다고 알려진 SVM(Support Vector Machine)을 기반으로 퍼지이론(fuzzy theory)을 활용해 입력변수를 확장하고, 유전자 알고리즘(GA, Genetic Algorithm)을 이용해 유사 혹은 유사최적의 입력변수집합과 파라미터를 탐색하는 새로운 융합모형을 제시한다. 제안모형의 유용성을 검증하기 위하여 H은행의 비외감 중공업 기업 데이터를 이용하여 실험을 수행하였으며, 비교모형으로는 로짓분석, 판별분석, 의사결정나무, 사례기반추론, 인공신경망, SVM을 선정하였다. 실험결과, 제안모형이 모든 비교모형들에 비해 우수한 예측력을 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 우수한 예측 성능을 가진 다기법 융합 모형을 새롭게 제안하여, 부도예측 분야에 학술적, 실무적으로 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.227-237
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• 2008

In this paper, an algorithm that provides absolute and proportional differentiation of packet delays is proposed with the objective of enhancing quality of service in future packet networks. It features an adaptive scheme that adjusts the target delay for every time slot to compensate the deviation from the target delay, which is caused by prediction error on the traffic to arrive at the next time slot. It predicts the traffic to arrive at the beginning of a time slot and measures the actual arrived traffic at the end of the time slot. The difference between them is utilized by the delay control operation for the next time slot to offset it. Because the proposed algorithm compensates the prediction error continuously, it shows superior adaptability to bursty traffic and exponential traffic. Through simulations we demonstrate that the algorithm meets the quantitative delay bounds and is robust to traffic fluctuation in comparison with the conventional non-adaptive mechanism. The algorithm is implemented with VHDL on a Xilinx Spartan XC3S1500 FPGA, and the performance is verified under the test board based on the XPC860P CPU.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제29권9C호
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• pp.1330-1336
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• 2004

본 논문에서는 동영상 부호화 기의 성능을 개선하기 위한 최소 자송 기반 적응 움직임 벡터 예측 알고리즘을 제안 하고자 한다. 적응 움직임 벡터 예측 방식은 동영상 움직임 벡터의 국부 통계적인 특성의 돌연한 변화로 특정지어 진다는 것을 바탕으로 최소 자승(Least Squared) 기반의 선형 움직임의 계수들을 통계적 특성에 따라 최적화하는 방식이지만 상기 방식은 애우 높은 계산 량을 요구하는 단정을 지니고 있다. 본 논문에서는 공간적인 움직임 변화 방향성을 가지는 최소 자승 최적화를 기반으로 움직임 예측기의 계수를 적응적으로 조절하여 움직임 예측 오류뿐만 아니라 계산 량도 감소시키는 방식에 대해 기술한다. 실험을 통해 제안된 방식의 성능을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 물과 미래
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.219-233
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• 1995

강우의 평균과 분산이 시 공간적으로 변하는 비정상 다변량 모형을 강우모형으로 선정하였다. 그리고 강우모형의 상태 및 매개변수의 추정을 위해 비정상 대변량 모형의 잔차항에 Kalman Filter 순환추정 알고리즘을 적용하여 강우예측모형 시스템을 구성하였다. 그후 반응시간이 짧은 도시지역에 설치된 T/M 강우관측소에 입력되는 매 시간(10분간격) 강우자료를 사용하여 호우개수방법에 의한 비정상(Non-stationary) 평균과 분산의 추정 그리고 호우속도 추정을 통한 정규잔차 공분산을 추정하여 다수의 지점들 및 선행시간들의 실시간 다변량 단기 강우예측 (On-line, Real-time, Multivariate Short-term, Rainfall Prediction)을 하였다. 강우예측시스템 모형에 의한 결과와 비정상 변량 모형에 의한 강우모의 결과가 잘 일치하였다. 그리고 예측정도를 측정하는 방법인 제곱 평균 제곱근 오차(RMSE)와 모형 효율성 계수(ME)를 분석한 결과, 강우 예측시간 즉 선행시간이 갈수록 제곱 평균 제곱근 오차가 커지고 모형 효율성 계수가 1로부터 점차 작아지는 것으로 보아 강우예측 정도가 떨어지는 것을 알 수 있었다. 또한 호우개수방법으로 구한 평균이 호우구조의 많은 부분을 차지하고 있음을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국음향학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국음향학회 1994년도 제11회 음성통신 및 신호처리 워크샵 논문집 (SCAS 11권 1호)
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• pp.199-204
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• 1994

In this paper, we researched abut CELP speech coding algorithm using efficlent pseudo-stochastic block codes, adaptive-codebook and improved fixed-gain codebook. The pseudo-stochastic block codes refer to stochastically populated block codes in which the adjacent codewords in an innovation codebook are non-independent. The adaptive-codebook was made with previous prediction speech data by storage-shift register. This CELP coding algorithm enables the coding of toll quality speech at bit rates from 4.8kbits/s to 9.6 kbits/s. This algorithm was realized TMS320C30 microprocessor in realtime.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.165-165
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• 2023

Streamflow prediction is a critical task in water resources management and essential for planning and decision-making purposes. However, the streamflow prediction is challenging due to the complexity and non-linear nature of hydrological processes. The transfer learning is a powerful technique that enables a model to transfer knowledge from a source domain to a target domain, improving model performance with limited data in the target domain. In this study, we apply the transfer learning using the Informer model, which is a state-of-the-art deep learning model for streamflow prediction. The model was trained on a large-scale hydrological dataset in the source basin and then fine-tuned using a smaller dataset available in the target basin to predict the streamflow in the target basin. The results demonstrate that transfer learning using the Informer model significantly outperforms the traditional machine learning models and even other deep learning models for streamflow prediction, especially when the target domain has limited data. Moreover, the results indicate the effectiveness of streamflow prediction when knowledge transfer is used to improve the generalizability of hydrologic models in data-sparse regions.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.187-206
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• 2007

The development of computer and information technology has been combined with the information superhighway internet infrastructure, so information widely spreads not only in special fields but also in the daily lives of people. Information ubiquity influences the traditional way of transaction, and leads a new E-commerce which distinguishes from the existing E-commerce. Not only goods as physical but also service as non-physical come into E-commerce. As the scale of E-Commerce is being enlarged as well. It keeps people from finding information they want. Recommender systems are now becoming the main tools for E-Commerce to mitigate the information overload. Recommender systems can be defined as systems for suggesting some Items(goods or service) considering customers' interests or tastes. They are being used by E-commerce web sites to suggest products to their customers who want to find something for them and to provide them with information to help them decide which to purchase. There are several approaches of recommending goods to customer in recommender system but in this study, the main subject is focused on collaborative filtering technique. This study presents a possibility of pre-evaluation for the prediction performance of customer's preference in collaborative filtering before the process of customer's preference prediction. Pre-evaluation for the prediction performance of each customer having low performance is classified by using the statistical features of ratings rated by each customer is conducted before the prediction process. In this study, MovieLens 100K dataset is used to analyze the accuracy of classification. The classification criteria are set by using the training sets divided 80% from the 100K dataset. In the process of classification, the customers are divided into two groups, classified group and non classified group. To compare the prediction performance of classified group and non classified group, the prediction process runs the 20% test set through the Neighborhood Based Collaborative Filtering Algorithm and Correspondence Mean Algorithm. The prediction errors from those prediction algorithm are allocated to each customer and compared with each user's error. Research hypothesis : Two research hypotheses are formulated in this study to test the accuracy of the classification criterion as follows. Hypothesis 1: The estimation accuracy of groups classified according to the standard deviation of each user's ratings has significant difference. To test the Hypothesis 1, the standard deviation is calculated for each user in training set which is divided 80% from MovieLens 100K dataset. Four groups are classified according to the quartile of the each user's standard deviations. It is compared to test the estimation errors of each group which results from test set are significantly different. Hypothesis 2: The estimation accuracy of groups that are classified according to the distribution of each user's ratings have significant differences. To test the Hypothesis 2, the distributions of each user's ratings are compared with the distribution of ratings of all customers in training set which is divided 80% from MovieLens 100K dataset. It assumes that the customers whose ratings' distribution are different from that of all customers would have low performance, so six types of different distributions are set to be compared. The test groups are classified into fit group or non-fit group according to the each type of different distribution assumed. The degrees in accordance with each type of distribution and each customer's distributions are tested by the test of ${\chi}^2$ goodness-of-fit and classified two groups for testing the difference of the mean of errors. Also, the degree of goodness-of-fit with the distribution of each user's ratings and the average distribution of the ratings in the training set are closely related to the prediction errors from those prediction algorithms. Through this study, the customers who have lower performance of prediction than the rest in the system are classified by those two criteria, which are set by statistical features of customers ratings in the training set, before the prediction process.

• Psychiatry investigation
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• 제15권11호
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• pp.1030-1036
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• 2018

Objective In this study, we aimed to develop a model predicting individuals with suicide ideation within a general population using a machine learning algorithm. Methods Among 35,116 individuals aged over 19 years from the Korea National Health & Nutrition Examination Survey, we selected 11,628 individuals via random down-sampling. This included 5,814 suicide ideators and the same number of non-suicide ideators. We randomly assigned the subjects to a training set (n=10,466) and a test set (n=1,162). In the training set, a random forest model was trained with 15 features selected with recursive feature elimination via 10-fold cross validation. Subsequently, the fitted model was used to predict suicide ideators in the test set and among the total of 35,116 subjects. All analyses were conducted in R. Results The prediction model achieved a good performance [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.85] in the test set and predicted suicide ideators among the total samples with an accuracy of 0.821, sensitivity of 0.836, and specificity of 0.807. Conclusion This study shows the possibility that a machine learning approach can enable screening for suicide risk in the general population. Further work is warranted to increase the accuracy of prediction.