• Title/Summary/Keyword: Non-Prediction Algorithm

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Time Series Forecast of Maximum Electrical Power using Lyapunov Exponent (Lyapunov 지수를 이용한 전력 수요 시계열 예측)

  • Park, Jae-Hyeon;Kim, Young-Il;Choo, Yeon-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.1647-1652
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    • 2009
  • Generally the neural network and the fuzzy compensative algorithm are applied to forecast the time series for power demand with a characteristic of non-linear dynamic system, but it has a few prediction errors relatively. It also makes long term forecast difficult for sensitivity on the initial condition. On this paper, we evaluate the chaotic characteristic of electrical power demand with analysis methods of qualitative and quantitative and perform a forecast simulation of electrical power demand in regular sequence, attractor reconstruction, time series forecast for multi dimension using Lyapunov exponent quantitatively. We compare simulated results with the previous method and verify that the purpose one being more practice and effective than it.

Constitutive model for ratcheting behavior of Z2CND18.12N austenitic stainless steel under non-symmetric cyclic stress based on BP neural network

  • Wang, Xingang;Chen, Xiaohui;Yan, Mingming;Chang, Miaoxin
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.517-525
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    • 2018
  • The specimens made by Z2CND18.12N austenitic stainless steel were conducted on a 100 kN closed loop servo hydraulic tension-compression testing machine with a digital controller. Uniaxial tension and uniaxial ratcheting effect tests were carried out at $25^{\circ}C$. Moreover, Uniaxial tension tests were conducted at $150^{\circ}C$, $250^{\circ}C$ and $350^{\circ}C$. Based on these experimental data, the prediction models of stress-strain curve and the relationship of ratcheting strain and number of cycles were established by the algorithm principle of BP neural network. The results indicated that the predicted results of neural network model were in well agreement with experimental data. It was found that the BP neural network model had high validity and accuracy.

Numerical Study for 3D Turbulent Flow in High Incidence Compressor Cascade (고입사각 압축기 익렬내의 3차원 난류유동에 관한 수치적 연구)

  • 안병진;정기호;김귀순;임진식;김유일
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.04a
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2002
  • A numerical analysis based on two-dimensional and three-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations has been carried out for double-circular-arc compressor cascades and the results are compared with available experimental data at various incidence angles. The 2-D and 3-D computational codes based on SIMPLE algorithm adopt pressure weighted interpolation method for non-staggered grid and hybrid scheme for the convertive terms. Turbulence modeling is very important for prediction of cascade flows, which are extremely complex with separation and reattachment by adverse pressure gradient. In this paper k-$\varepsilon$ turbulence model with wall function is used to increase efficiency of computation times.

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A STUDY ON WELD POOL MONITORING IN PULSED LASER EDGE WELDING

  • Lee, Seung-Key;Na, Suck-Joo
    • Proceedings of the KWS Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.595-599
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    • 2002
  • Edge welding of thin sheets is very difficult because of the fit-up problem and small weld area In laser welding, joint fit-up and penetration are critical for sound weld quality, which can be monitored by appropriate methods. Among the various monitoring systems, visual monitoring method is attractive because various kinds of weld pool information can be extracted directly. In this study, a vision sensor was adopted for the weld pool monitoring in pulsed Nd:YAG laser edge welding to monitor whether the penetration is enough and the joint fit-up is within the requirement. Pulsed Nd:YAG laser provides a series of periodic laser pulses, while the shape and brightness of the weld pool change temporally even in one pulse duration. The shutter-triggered and non-interlaced CCD camera was used to acquire a temporally changed weld pool image at the moment representing the weld status well. The information for quality monitoring can be extracted from the monitored weld pool image by an image processing algorithm. Weld pool image contains not only the information about the joint fit-up, but the penetration. The information about the joint fit-up can be extracted from the weld pool shape, and that about a penetration from the brightness. Weld pool parameters that represent the characteristics of the weld pool were selected based on the geometrical appearance and brightness profile. In order to achieve accurate prediction of the weld penetration, which is nonlinear model, neural network with the selected weld pool parameters was applied.

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Frequency Band Selection Exited Linear Prediction Wideband Speech/Audio Coding Using SBR (SBR을 이용한 주파수 밴드선택 여기 선형예측 광대역 음성/오디오 부호화)

  • Jang, Sunghoon;Lee, Insung
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.556-562
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    • 2013
  • This paper is aimed to improve performance of Band-Selection speech/audio Coder reconstucted band spectrum that is not sent by the comfort noise. To improve the performance, we use the Spectral Band Replication(SBR) technique instead of substitution of Comfort noise. To synthesize SBR signal, the SBR algorithm is referenced in selected signals and the spectrum synthesized by SBR is injected to non-selected band. Each sub-band spectrum has been energy-weighted by real audio signal. We propose the enhanced the Band-Selection Coder that utilizes synthesized SBR signal from selected signal instead of comfort noise.

A Neural Network Based Korean Segmental Duration Modeling Using Tonal Information of Phonemes (음소별 성조 정보를 이용한 신경망 기반의 한국어 음소 지속시간 모델링)

  • 김은경;이상호;오영환
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.84-88
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    • 1999
  • The accurate estimation of segmental duration is crucial for natural-sounding text-to-speech synthesis. For predicting Korean segmental durations, conventional methods utilized phonemic context, part-of-speech context and locational information in prosodic phrase. In this paper, the tonal information of phonemes is employed for more accurate prediction. After defining two non-boundary tones and six boundary tones, we annotated the tonal label on each syllable of 400 sentences. To predict segmental duration using tonal information, we constructed neural networks with a real-valued output node predicting phonemic duration and trained them by backpropagation algorithm. Experimental results showed that the proposed features are effective for predicting Korean segmental durations, and we got 0.863 correlation coefficient of the observed durations and predicted ones.

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Prediction of Tensile Strength for Plasma-MIG Hybrid Welding Using Statistical Regression Model and Neural Network Algorithm (통계적 회귀 모형과 인공 신경망을 이용한 Plasma-MIG 하이브리드 용접의 인장강도 예측)

  • Jung, Jin Soo;Lee, Hee Keun;Park, Young Whan
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.67-72
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    • 2016
  • Aluminum alloy is one of light weight material and it is used to make LNG tank and ship. However, in order to weld aluminum alloy high density heat source is needed. In this paper, I-butt welding of Al 5083 with 6mm thickness using Plasma-MIG welding was carried out. The experiment was performed to investigate the influence of plasma-MIG welding parameters such as plasma current, wire feeding rate, MIG-welding voltage and welding speed on the tensile strength of weld. In addition we suggested 3 strength estimation models which are second order polynomial regression model, multiple nonlinear regression model and neural network model. The estimation performance of 3 models was evaluated in terms of average error rate (AER) and their values were 0.125, 0.238, and 0.021 respectively. Neural network model which has training concept and reflects non -linearity was best estimation performance.

A Study on an Automatical BKLS Measurement By Programming Technology

  • Shin, YeounOuk;Kim, KiBum
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2018
  • This study focuses on presenting the IT program module provided by BKLS measure in order to solve the problem of capital cost due to information asymmetry of external investors and corporate executives. Barron at al(1998) set up a BKLS measure to guide the market by intermediate analysts. The BKLS measure was measured by using the changes in the analyst forecast dispersion and analyst mean forecast error squared. This study suggests a model of the algorithm that the BKLS measure can be provided to all investors immediately by IT program in order to deliver the meaningful value in the domestic capital market as measured. This is a method of generating and analyzing real-time or non-real-time prediction models by transferring the predicted estimates delivered to the Big Data Log Analysis System through the statistical DB to the statistical forecasting engine. Because BKLS measure is not carried out in a concrete method, it is practically very difficult to estimate the BKLS measure. It is expected that the BKLS measure of Barron at al(1998) introduced in this study and the model of IT module provided in real time will be the starting point for the follow-up study for the introduction and realization of IT technology in the future.

A DFT and QSAR Study of Several Sulfonamide Derivatives in Gas and Solvent

  • Abadi, Robabeh Sayyadi kord;Alizadehdakhel, Asghar;Paskiabei, Soghra Tajadodi
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.60 no.4
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    • pp.225-234
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    • 2016
  • The activity of 34 sulfonamide derivatives has been estimated by means of multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network (ANN), simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithm (GA) techniques. These models were also utilized to select the most efficient subsets of descriptors in a cross-validation procedure for non-linear -log (IC50) prediction. The results obtained using GA-ANN were compared with MLR-MLR, MLR-ANN, SA-ANN and GA-ANN approaches. A high predictive ability was observed for the MLR-MLR, MLR-ANN, SA-ANN and MLR-GA models, with root mean sum square errors (RMSE) of 0.3958, 0.1006, 0.0359, 0.0326 and 0.0282 in gas phase and 0.2871, 0.0475, 0.0268, 0.0376 and 0.0097 in solvent, respectively (N=34). The results obtained using the GA-ANN method indicated that the activity of derivatives of sulfonamides depends on different parameters including DP03, BID, AAC, RDF035v, JGI9, TIE, R7e+, BELM6 descriptors in gas phase and Mor 32u, ESpm03d, RDF070v, ATS8m, MATS2e and R4p, L1u and R3m in solvent. In conclusion, the comparison of the quality of the ANN with different MLR models showed that ANN has a better predictive ability.

Neural Network Modeling of Ion Energy Impact on Surface Roughness of SiN Thin Films (신경망을 이용한 SiN 박막 표면거칠기에의 이온에너지 영향 모델링)

  • Kim, Byung-Whan;Lee, Joo-Kong
    • Journal of the Korean institute of surface engineering
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.159-164
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    • 2010
  • Surface roughness of deposited or etched film strongly depends on ion bombardment. Relationships between ion bombardment variables and surface roughness are too complicated to model analytically. To overcome this, an empirical neural network model was constructed and applied to a deposition process of silicon nitride (SiN) films. The films were deposited by using a pulsed plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition system in $SiH_4$-$NH_4$ plasma. Radio frequency source power and duty ratio were varied in the range of 200-800 W and 40-100%. A total of 20 experiments were conducted. A non-invasive ion energy analyzer was used to collect ion energy distribution. The diagnostic variables examined include high (or) low ion energy and high (or low) ion energy flux. Mean surface roughness was measured by using atomic force microscopy. A neural network model relating the diagnostic variables to the surface roughness was constructed and its prediction performance was optimized by using a genetic algorithm. The optimized model yielded an improved performance of about 58% over statistical regression model. The model revealed very interesting features useful for optimization of surface roughness. This includes a reduction in surface roughness either by an increase in ion energy flux at lower ion energy or by an increase in higher ion energy at lower ion energy flux.