• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2005년도 공동추계학술대회
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• pp.241-250
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• 2005

New product development (NPD) is defined as the transformation of a market opportunity and a set of assumptions about product technology into a product available for sale. Managers charged with project selection decisions in the NPD process, such as go/no-go choices and specific resource allocation decisions, are faced with a complicated problem. Therefore, the ability to develop new successful products has identifies as a major determinant in sustaining a firm's competitive advantage. The purpose of this study is to develop a new evaluation model for NPD project selection in the high -tech industry using support vector machines (SYM). The evaluation model is developed through two phases. In the first phase, binary (go/no-go) classification prediction model, i.e. SVM for high-tech NPD project selection is developed. In the second phase. using the predicted output value of SVM, feasibility grade is calculated for the final NPD project decision making. In this study, the feasibility grades are also divided as three level grades. We assume that the frequency of NPD project cases is symmetrically determined according to the feasibility grades and misclassification errors are partially minimized by the multiple grades. However, the horizon of grade level can be changed by firms' NPD strategy. Our proposed feasibility grade method is more reasonable in NPD decision problems by considering particularly risk factor of NPD in viewpoints of future NPD success probability. In our empirical study using Korean NPD cases, the SVM significantly outperformed ANN and logistic regression as benchmark models in hit ratio. And the feasibility grades generated from the predicted output value of SVM showed that they can offer a useful guideline for NPD project selection.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.153-164
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• 2007

현재 국내에서는 정부 및 지자체를 중심으로 u-City를 도시의 핵심 성장 동력으로 인식하고 활발하게 사업을 추진 중에 있다. 그러나 도시의 목표나 특성에 적합한 서비스 도출을 위한 선정방법이 미흡하여, 한정된 예산과 도시 전 분야에 걸친 과다한 서비스, 복잡한 이해관계로 인한 사업비용과 시간지연, 낮은 서비스 수준 등의 문제를 안고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 문제를 해결하고자 새로운 u-서비스군 선정방법론을 제안하고 있다. 제안한 u-서비스군 선정방법론은 법 제도나 기술제약의 엄격한 적용과 다양한 변수를 통해 서비스군의 가치를 산출하였고, 서비스군의 다양한 조합으로부터 최적의 서비스군을 선정할 수 있는 가치평가모형(u-SEM)을 제시하고 있다. 특히 본 모형은 사업추진상의 복잡도로 나타나는 비우호적이고 영향력이 높은 이해관계자의 수를 가치평가의 중요한 요인으로 포함하였고, 궁극적으로 복수의 u-서비스군 대안을 경제효과, 복잡성, 구축비용 등으로 종합 평가할 수 있는 방법론을 제시하고 있다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.177-183
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• 2006

Risk-based estimation has been successfully introduced into the construction industry. By incorporating historical data associated with probability analysis, risk-based estimate is an effective decision support aid in considering whether to launch a particular project. The industry challenges, however, especially related with management issues, such as labor shortage, wage growth, and supply chain complexity, have often resulted in poor cost performance. The insufficient assessing the project characteristics (i.e., resource availability, project complexity, and project delivery method) can be the main reasons in the poor cost performance. Because the accuracy level of cost performance prediction can be enhanced by extensive evaluation of the subject project characteristics, a new approach for predicting cost performance in an earlier stage of a project can improve the Industry substantiality, in other words, value maximization. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new methodology in developing a risk-based estimate tool by incorporating extensive project characteristics. To do this, an extensive industry survey was conducted from both private and public sectors in building industry in Korea. In addition, significant project characteristics were identified in terms of cost performance indicator. Although the data collection is limited to Korean industry the suggested approach provides the industry with a straightforward methodology in risk management. As many researchers maintained that front-end planning efforts are crucial in achieving the successful outcome in building projects, the new method for risk-based estimation can Improve the cost performance as well as enhance the fulfillment in terms of business sustainability.

• 수산해양교육연구
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.1057-1067
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• 2016

National Competency Standards are the major administrative project to build a competence-based society. The manpower for the global society should be recognized by performance rather than educational records. Therefore, all colleges should first nurture NCS-type manpower based on field needs. This study comparatively analyzed the differences between the lecture style of four-year colleges and the outcomes of problem-solving and project-based learning method to prove why it is necessary to introduce the NCS program. Especially, It will review the constraints and measures of NCS introduction to overcome in a four-year university. Through this, it can be used as a means to help improve the field conformity of a four-year college curriculum by presenting the development and utilization of curriculum-based NCS in a four-year university. As a result, it was found that the overall satisfaction with the problem-solving and project-based learning method was above average. Many students were dissatisfied with the traditional teaching methods and the new project-based learning method was relatively effective in college education. Students' participation also improved. Based on the evaluation of learning performance, the new method was found more satisfactory than the old teaching method in terms of comprehension of professional knowledge in various fields, nurturing of logical thinking skills, acquisition of analytical skills, comprehensive thinking skills, creative problem recognition, and open-minded thinking skills.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제33권7호
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• pp.469-476
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• 2009

Recent collapse of shipping market right after unprecedent surge clearly demonstrates that shipping industry is extremely risky. Due to the volatile movements of the freight rates, investors tend to ask higher rate of return; higher required return reduces the total net present value of the investment project. For several decades, the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF hereafter) analysis has been the most frequently used valuation technique. However, the main problem of the DCF analysis is its assumption that the discount rate would stay the same during the project life. In other words, it usually does not address the decisions that managers have after a project has been accepted. The purpose of this study is investigate a new valuation method of investment: the Real Option Analysis(ROA hereafter) on ship investment. By replacing the existing valuation methods with the new one, the research will present a new perspective on investment with uncertainty. While uncertainty increases risk of investment and consequently discounts the value of it in the traditional feasibility analysis, in the ROA, a new valuation method which will be addressed in the research, uncertainty means some additional value of flexibility so that the tool can help investors produce more accurate decisions. Contrary to the DCF analysis, the ROA takes managerial flexibilities into account. In reality, capital budgeting and project management is typically dynamic, rather than static in nature. The ROA finds and assesses the values of managerial flexibilities or real options in the investments. The main structures of the research will be as follows: (1) overview of the ship investment project, (2) evaluation of the project by the Net Present Value analysis, (3) evaluation of the same project by the Real Option Analysis, (4) comparision of the two techniques.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회/대한산업공학회 2003년도 춘계공동학술대회
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• pp.966-971
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• 2003

[ $\lceil\;Cost Effectiveness Analysis\;\rfloor$ ] has been widely used to evaluate effectiveness of R&D resources. But, almost of cost effectiveness evaluation systems have some problems, especially estimating method of effect on R&D project is very rough and imprecise. To solve this problem, we have designed new single effect evaluation system, which are able to apply the distribution of order statistics and to transform relative measure into absolute measure for getting single effect.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.163-175
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• 2007

[ $ulcorner$ ]Cost-Effectiveness Analysis$\lrcorner$ has been wifely used to evaluate economic efficiency of R&D projects, but most of cost-effectiveness evaluation systems have some problems such as systematic method for setting and evaluating cost factors, estimation of single effect on each R&D project, and estimation of cross effects among R&D projects. To solve these problems, we have designed a new evaluation indicator called a $ulcorner$Cost-Cross Effect Integration Indicator$lrcorner$ including cross effects developed in this research. The major research findings are summarized as follows : (1) $ulcorner$Coist Estimation Model$lrcorner$, which estimates the cost factors divided into two classes of assembly product and system product and then integrates the total cost values, has been designed. (2) A new method for estimating parameters of cross effects among R&D projects has been developed. (3) $ulcorner$Cross Effects Estimation Model$lrcorner$ to estimate multi-effects and cross effects by completion time among several projects has been designed. (4) $ulcorner$Integration Estimation Indicator$lrcorner$ for setting priority on a project group has been extracted by combination of total cost value and total effect value.

• 산업공학
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.376-386
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• 2007

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a well-known and useful decision making method, has been applied to R&D project evaluation and selection. The objective of this study is to propose a new model for evaluating and selecting R&D projects of Samsung Electro-Mechanics, the top manufacturer of electronic components in Korea, using the AHP. To show the validity of the new model, we strived to successively compare the final priorities for R&D projects with the priorities obtained by the existing model and the new model respectively.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.105-114
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• 2019

최근 사회여건의 변화로 도로정책의 패러다임은 이용자 중심의 안전성 위주로 변화하고 있다. 최근 시설개량사업은 지속적인 증가 추이를 보이고 있으나 대부분 경제적 타당성 확보가 미흡한 실정이다. 따라서 도로 안전성에 대한 객관적이고 타당한 분석을 통해 합리적인 시설개량 대상사업 선정이 절실히 요구되는 시점이다. 본 연구에서는 새로운 도로 안전성 평가기법 개발을 위해 국도, 국지도, 지방도 등 75개 노선에 대해 현행 도로 안전성 평가기법을 토대로 데이터를 구축하였으며, 이렇게 구축된 데이터를 중심으로 문제점을 분석하여, 새로운 도로 안전성 평가기법의 기초자료로 활용하였다. 본 연구에서는 교통사고발생현황을 가중치를 통해 일반 평가항목으로 추가하고, 지자체 공무원들의 문제 지적 및 건의 사항 등을 통해 최종 평가항목을 확정하였다. 각 평가항목에 대해서는 전문가 AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) 설문 평가를 통해 합리적 가중치를 도출하였으며, 항목별 평가기준을 토대로 안전지수(Safety Index)를 결정하였다. 결정된 각 항목의 안전지수(SI)를 토대로, 각 안전지수의 곱인 종합 안전지수를 산출하였으며, 위험구간 판정 기준을 정립하였다. 또한, 위험구간 연장 비율인 종합위험도에 따른 시설개량 대상사업 선정 기준 도출 등 합리적이고 객관적인 도로 안전성 평가기법을 개발하였다.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제41권2호
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• pp.144-149
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• 2015

In this study, the effective technology readiness assessment (TRA) method for system development project is suggested. We analyze the domestic and foreign TRA practice and derive the new idea to resolve the problems found from the analysis. Domestic and foreign organizations develop and use checklist for the precise TRA, but the checklist has some problems in type of questions and analysis of assessment. TRA method using the original TRL definition or the checklist should be selected depending on the project characteristic. Questions of the checklist should be classified into critical or non-critical according to their importance. Finally, Test and evaluation master plan (TEMP) in system engineering process can provide an obvious criteria to assess technology readiness level (TRL) of critical technology elements (CTE) composing the system.