• Title/Summary/Keyword: Network models

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The Prediction of Purchase Amount of Customers Using Support Vector Regression with Separated Learning Method (Support Vector Regression에서 분리학습을 이용한 고객의 구매액 예측모형)

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.213-225
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    • 2010
  • Data mining has empowered the managers who are charge of the tasks in their company to present personalized and differentiated marketing programs to their customers with the rapid growth of information technology. Most studies on customer' response have focused on predicting whether they would respond or not for their marketing promotion as marketing managers have been eager to identify who would respond to their marketing promotion. So many studies utilizing data mining have tried to resolve the binary decision problems such as bankruptcy prediction, network intrusion detection, and fraud detection in credit card usages. The prediction of customer's response has been studied with similar methods mentioned above because the prediction of customer's response is a kind of dichotomous decision problem. In addition, a number of competitive data mining techniques such as neural networks, SVM(support vector machine), decision trees, logit, and genetic algorithms have been applied to the prediction of customer's response for marketing promotion. The marketing managers also have tried to classify their customers with quantitative measures such as recency, frequency, and monetary acquired from their transaction database. The measures mean that their customers came to purchase in recent or old days, how frequent in a period, and how much they spent once. Using segmented customers we proposed an approach that could enable to differentiate customers in the same rating among the segmented customers. Our approach employed support vector regression to forecast the purchase amount of customers for each customer rating. Our study used the sample that included 41,924 customers extracted from DMEF04 Data Set, who purchased at least once in the last two years. We classified customers from first rating to fifth rating based on the purchase amount after giving a marketing promotion. Here, we divided customers into first rating who has a large amount of purchase and fifth rating who are non-respondents for the promotion. Our proposed model forecasted the purchase amount of the customers in the same rating and the marketing managers could make a differentiated and personalized marketing program for each customer even though they were belong to the same rating. In addition, we proposed more efficient learning method by separating the learning samples. We employed two learning methods to compare the performance of proposed learning method with general learning method for SVRs. LMW (Learning Method using Whole data for purchasing customers) is a general learning method for forecasting the purchase amount of customers. And we proposed a method, LMS (Learning Method using Separated data for classification purchasing customers), that makes four different SVR models for each class of customers. To evaluate the performance of models, we calculated MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) for each model to predict the purchase amount of customers. In LMW, the overall performance was 0.670 MAPE and the best performance showed 0.327 MAPE. Generally, the performances of the proposed LMS model were analyzed as more superior compared to the performance of the LMW model. In LMS, we found that the best performance was 0.275 MAPE. The performance of LMS was higher than LMW in each class of customers. After comparing the performance of our proposed method LMS to LMW, our proposed model had more significant performance for forecasting the purchase amount of customers in each class. In addition, our approach will be useful for marketing managers when they need to customers for their promotion. Even if customers were belonging to same class, marketing managers could offer customers a differentiated and personalized marketing promotion.

Improving Performance of Recommendation Systems Using Topic Modeling (사용자 관심 이슈 분석을 통한 추천시스템 성능 향상 방안)

  • Choi, Seongi;Hyun, Yoonjin;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2015
  • Recently, due to the development of smart devices and social media, vast amounts of information with the various forms were accumulated. Particularly, considerable research efforts are being directed towards analyzing unstructured big data to resolve various social problems. Accordingly, focus of data-driven decision-making is being moved from structured data analysis to unstructured one. Also, in the field of recommendation system, which is the typical area of data-driven decision-making, the need of using unstructured data has been steadily increased to improve system performance. Approaches to improve the performance of recommendation systems can be found in two aspects- improving algorithms and acquiring useful data with high quality. Traditionally, most efforts to improve the performance of recommendation system were made by the former approach, while the latter approach has not attracted much attention relatively. In this sense, efforts to utilize unstructured data from variable sources are very timely and necessary. Particularly, as the interests of users are directly connected with their needs, identifying the interests of the user through unstructured big data analysis can be a crew for improving performance of recommendation systems. In this sense, this study proposes the methodology of improving recommendation system by measuring interests of the user. Specially, this study proposes the method to quantify interests of the user by analyzing user's internet usage patterns, and to predict user's repurchase based upon the discovered preferences. There are two important modules in this study. The first module predicts repurchase probability of each category through analyzing users' purchase history. We include the first module to our research scope for comparing the accuracy of traditional purchase-based prediction model to our new model presented in the second module. This procedure extracts purchase history of users. The core part of our methodology is in the second module. This module extracts users' interests by analyzing news articles the users have read. The second module constructs a correspondence matrix between topics and news articles by performing topic modeling on real world news articles. And then, the module analyzes users' news access patterns and then constructs a correspondence matrix between articles and users. After that, by merging the results of the previous processes in the second module, we can obtain a correspondence matrix between users and topics. This matrix describes users' interests in a structured manner. Finally, by using the matrix, the second module builds a model for predicting repurchase probability of each category. In this paper, we also provide experimental results of our performance evaluation. The outline of data used our experiments is as follows. We acquired web transaction data of 5,000 panels from a company that is specialized to analyzing ranks of internet sites. At first we extracted 15,000 URLs of news articles published from July 2012 to June 2013 from the original data and we crawled main contents of the news articles. After that we selected 2,615 users who have read at least one of the extracted news articles. Among the 2,615 users, we discovered that the number of target users who purchase at least one items from our target shopping mall 'G' is 359. In the experiments, we analyzed purchase history and news access records of the 359 internet users. From the performance evaluation, we found that our prediction model using both users' interests and purchase history outperforms a prediction model using only users' purchase history from a view point of misclassification ratio. In detail, our model outperformed the traditional one in appliance, beauty, computer, culture, digital, fashion, and sports categories when artificial neural network based models were used. Similarly, our model outperformed the traditional one in beauty, computer, digital, fashion, food, and furniture categories when decision tree based models were used although the improvement is very small.

Selective Word Embedding for Sentence Classification by Considering Information Gain and Word Similarity (문장 분류를 위한 정보 이득 및 유사도에 따른 단어 제거와 선택적 단어 임베딩 방안)

  • Lee, Min Seok;Yang, Seok Woo;Lee, Hong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.105-122
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    • 2019
  • Dimensionality reduction is one of the methods to handle big data in text mining. For dimensionality reduction, we should consider the density of data, which has a significant influence on the performance of sentence classification. It requires lots of computations for data of higher dimensions. Eventually, it can cause lots of computational cost and overfitting in the model. Thus, the dimension reduction process is necessary to improve the performance of the model. Diverse methods have been proposed from only lessening the noise of data like misspelling or informal text to including semantic and syntactic information. On top of it, the expression and selection of the text features have impacts on the performance of the classifier for sentence classification, which is one of the fields of Natural Language Processing. The common goal of dimension reduction is to find latent space that is representative of raw data from observation space. Existing methods utilize various algorithms for dimensionality reduction, such as feature extraction and feature selection. In addition to these algorithms, word embeddings, learning low-dimensional vector space representations of words, that can capture semantic and syntactic information from data are also utilized. For improving performance, recent studies have suggested methods that the word dictionary is modified according to the positive and negative score of pre-defined words. The basic idea of this study is that similar words have similar vector representations. Once the feature selection algorithm selects the words that are not important, we thought the words that are similar to the selected words also have no impacts on sentence classification. This study proposes two ways to achieve more accurate classification that conduct selective word elimination under specific regulations and construct word embedding based on Word2Vec embedding. To select words having low importance from the text, we use information gain algorithm to measure the importance and cosine similarity to search for similar words. First, we eliminate words that have comparatively low information gain values from the raw text and form word embedding. Second, we select words additionally that are similar to the words that have a low level of information gain values and make word embedding. In the end, these filtered text and word embedding apply to the deep learning models; Convolutional Neural Network and Attention-Based Bidirectional LSTM. This study uses customer reviews on Kindle in Amazon.com, IMDB, and Yelp as datasets, and classify each data using the deep learning models. The reviews got more than five helpful votes, and the ratio of helpful votes was over 70% classified as helpful reviews. Also, Yelp only shows the number of helpful votes. We extracted 100,000 reviews which got more than five helpful votes using a random sampling method among 750,000 reviews. The minimal preprocessing was executed to each dataset, such as removing numbers and special characters from text data. To evaluate the proposed methods, we compared the performances of Word2Vec and GloVe word embeddings, which used all the words. We showed that one of the proposed methods is better than the embeddings with all the words. By removing unimportant words, we can get better performance. However, if we removed too many words, it showed that the performance was lowered. For future research, it is required to consider diverse ways of preprocessing and the in-depth analysis for the co-occurrence of words to measure similarity values among words. Also, we only applied the proposed method with Word2Vec. Other embedding methods such as GloVe, fastText, ELMo can be applied with the proposed methods, and it is possible to identify the possible combinations between word embedding methods and elimination methods.

A Study on the Strategy of IoT Industry Development in the 4th Industrial Revolution: Focusing on the direction of business model innovation (4차 산업혁명 시대의 사물인터넷 산업 발전전략에 관한 연구: 기업측면의 비즈니스 모델혁신 방향을 중심으로)

  • Joeng, Min Eui;Yu, Song-Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.57-75
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we conducted a study focusing on the innovation direction of the documentary model on the Internet of Things industry, which is the most actively industrialized among the core technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Policy, economic, social, and technical issues were derived using PEST analysis for global trend analysis. It also presented future prospects for the Internet of Things industry of ICT-related global research institutes such as Gartner and International Data Corporation. Global research institutes predicted that competition in network technologies will be an issue for industrial Internet (IIoST) and IoT (Internet of Things) based on infrastructure and platforms. As a result of the PEST analysis, developed countries are pushing policies to respond to the fourth industrial revolution through cooperation of private (business/ research institutes) led by the government. It was also in the process of expanding related R&D budgets and establishing related policies in South Korea. On the economic side, the growth tax of the related industries (based on the aggregate value of the market) and the performance of the entity were reviewed. The growth of industries related to the fourth industrial revolution in advanced countries overseas was found to be faster than other industries, while in Korea, the growth of the "technical hardware and equipment" and "communication service" sectors was relatively low among industries related to the fourth industrial revolution. On the social side, it is expected to cause enormous ripple effects across society, largely due to changes in technology and industrial structure, changes in employment structure, changes in job volume, etc. On the technical side, changes were taking place in each industry, representing the health and medical sectors and manufacturing sectors, which were rapidly changing as they merged with the technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. In this paper, various management methodologies for innovation of existing business model were reviewed to cope with rapidly changing industrial environment due to the fourth industrial revolution. In addition, four criteria were established to select a management model to cope with the new business environment: 'Applicability', 'Agility', 'Diversity' and 'Connectivity'. The expert survey results in an AHP analysis showing that Business Model Canvas is best suited for business model innovation methodology. The results showed very high importance, 42.5 percent in terms of "Applicability", 48.1 percent in terms of "Agility", 47.6 percent in terms of "diversity" and 42.9 percent in terms of "connectivity." Thus, it was selected as a model that could be diversely applied according to the industrial ecology and paradigm shift. Business Model Canvas is a relatively recent management strategy that identifies the value of a business model through a nine-block approach as a methodology for business model innovation. It identifies the value of a business model through nine block approaches and covers the four key areas of business: customer, order, infrastructure, and business feasibility analysis. In the paper, the expansion and application direction of the nine blocks were presented from the perspective of the IoT company (ICT). In conclusion, the discussion of which Business Model Canvas models will be applied in the ICT convergence industry is described. Based on the nine blocks, if appropriate applications are carried out to suit the characteristics of the target company, various applications are possible, such as integration and removal of five blocks, seven blocks and so on, and segmentation of blocks that fit the characteristics. Future research needs to develop customized business innovation methodologies for Internet of Things companies, or those that are performing Internet-based services. In addition, in this study, the Business Model Canvas model was derived from expert opinion as a useful tool for innovation. For the expansion and demonstration of the research, a study on the usability of presenting detailed implementation strategies, such as various model application cases and application models for actual companies, is needed.

Process Governance Meta Model and Framework (프로세스 거버넌스 메타모델과 프레임워크)

  • Lee, JungGyu;Jeong, Seung Ryul
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2019
  • As a sub-concept of corporate or organization governance, business governance and IT governance have become major research topics in academia. However, despite the importance of process as a construct for mediating the domain between business and information technology, research on process governance is relatively inadequate. Process Governance focuses on activities that link business strategy with IT system implementation and explains the creation of corporate core values. The researcher studied the basic conceptual governance models of political science, sociology, public administration, and classified governance styles into six categories. The researcher focused on the series of metamodels. For examples, the traditional Strategy Alignment Model(SAM) by Henderson and Venkatraman which is replaced by the neo-SAM model, organizational governance network model, sequential organization governance model, organization governance meta model, process governance CUBE model, COSO and process governance CUBE comparison model, and finally Process Governance Framework and etc. The Major difference between SAM and neo-SAM model is Process Governance domain inserted between Business Governance and IT Governance. Among several metamodels, Process Governance framework, the core conceptual model consists of four activity dimensions: strategic aligning, human empowering, competency enhancing, and autonomous organizing. The researcher designed five variables for each activity dimensions, totally twenty variables. Besides four activity dimensions, there are six driving forces for Process Governance cycle: De-normalizing power, micro-power, vitalizing power, self-organizing power, normalizing power and sense-making. With four activity dimensions and six driving powers, an organization can maintain the flexibility of process governance cycle to cope with internal and external environmental changes. This study aims to propose the Process Governance competency model and Process Governance variables. The situation of the industry is changing from the function-oriented organization management to the process-oriented perspective. Process Governance framework proposed by the researcher will be the contextual reference models for the further diffusion of the research on Process Governance domain and the operational definition for the development of Process Governance measurement tools in detail.

Preliminary Inspection Prediction Model to select the on-Site Inspected Foreign Food Facility using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (차원축소를 활용한 해외제조업체 대상 사전점검 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hae Jin Park;Jae Suk Choi;Sang Goo Cho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2023
  • As the number and weight of imported food are steadily increasing, safety management of imported food to prevent food safety accidents is becoming more important. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety conducts on-site inspections of foreign food facilities before customs clearance as well as import inspection at the customs clearance stage. However, a data-based safety management plan for imported food is needed due to time, cost, and limited resources. In this study, we tried to increase the efficiency of the on-site inspection by preparing a machine learning prediction model that pre-selects the companies that are expected to fail before the on-site inspection. Basic information of 303,272 foreign food facilities and processing businesses collected in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network and 1,689 cases of on-site inspection information data collected from 2019 to April 2022 were collected. After preprocessing the data of foreign food facilities, only the data subject to on-site inspection were extracted using the foreign food facility_code. As a result, it consisted of a total of 1,689 data and 103 variables. For 103 variables, variables that were '0' were removed based on the Theil-U index, and after reducing by applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis, 49 characteristic variables were finally derived. We build eight different models and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold cross validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated. The research purpose of selecting companies subject to on-site inspection is to maximize the recall, which is the probability of judging nonconforming companies as nonconforming. As a result of applying various algorithms of machine learning, the Random Forest model with the highest Recall_macro, AUROC, Average PR, F1-score, and Balanced Accuracy was evaluated as the best model. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the selection reason for nonconforming facilities of individual instances, and discuss applicability to the on-site inspection facility selection system. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that it will contribute to the efficient operation of limited resources such as manpower and budget by establishing an imported food management system through a data-based scientific risk management model.

Development of 1ST-Model for 1 hour-heavy rain damage scale prediction based on AI models (1시간 호우피해 규모 예측을 위한 AI 기반의 1ST-모형 개발)

  • Lee, Joonhak;Lee, Haneul;Kang, Narae;Hwang, Seokhwan;Kim, Hung Soo;Kim, Soojun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.311-323
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    • 2023
  • In order to reduce disaster damage by localized heavy rains, floods, and urban inundation, it is important to know in advance whether natural disasters occur. Currently, heavy rain watch and heavy rain warning by the criteria of the Korea Meteorological Administration are being issued in Korea. However, since this one criterion is applied to the whole country, we can not clearly recognize heavy rain damage for a specific region in advance. Therefore, in this paper, we tried to reset the current criteria for a special weather report which considers the regional characteristics and to predict the damage caused by rainfall after 1 hour. The study area was selected as Gyeonggi-province, where has more frequent heavy rain damage than other regions. Then, the rainfall inducing disaster or hazard-triggering rainfall was set by utilizing hourly rainfall and heavy rain damage data, considering the local characteristics. The heavy rain damage prediction model was developed by a decision tree model and a random forest model, which are machine learning technique and by rainfall inducing disaster and rainfall data. In addition, long short-term memory and deep neural network models were used for predicting rainfall after 1 hour. The predicted rainfall by a developed prediction model was applied to the trained classification model and we predicted whether the rain damage after 1 hour will be occurred or not and we called this as 1ST-Model. The 1ST-Model can be used for preventing and preparing heavy rain disaster and it is judged to be of great contribution in reducing damage caused by heavy rain.

A study on the Wonju Medical Equipment Industry Cluster (원주의료기기산업 클러스터의 형성과정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Woo-Chun;Yoon, Hyung-Ro
    • Journal of the Korean Academic Society of Industrial Cluster
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.67-86
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    • 2007
  • Wonju Medical Equipment Industry, despite of its short history, poor sales and weak manpower and so on, have shown remarkable outcomes in a relatively short period. At the end of 2007, totally 79 enterprises (only 4.6% of whole enterprises in Korea) made 10% of the nationwide production and 15% of the nationwide exports with an annual average growth rate of 66.7%, contributing domestic medical equipment industry tremendously. In addition, many leading medical equipment enterprises in various fields already moved or plan to move to Wonju, accelerating Wonju Medical Equipment Cluster. Wonju Medical Equipment Industry Cluster now enters into the growth stage, getting out of the initial business setup stage. Especially, the nomination of Wonju cluster project from the government accelerates networking (e.g. the development of the universal parts, the establishment of the mutual collaboration model among enterprises, and the mutual marketing), making a rapid growth in Wonju Medical Equipment Industry. Wonju Medical Equipment Industry Cluster revealed positive outcomes despite of the weakness in investment size and infra-structure comparing with the other medical industry cluster in the advanced country, while many domestic enterprises pursued their own growth models and thus failed to promote the international competitive power. Wonju Medical Equipment Industry has been developed rapidly. However, there are many challenging problems to support enterprises: small R&D investment and thus weak technology power, difficulties in recruiting R&D engineers, and poor marketing capabilities, financial infrastructure & policies, and network architecture. In order to develop a world-competitive medical equipment industry cluster at Wonju, the complement of infrastructures, the technology innovation, the mutual marketing, and the network expansion to support enterprises are further required. Wonju' s experiences in developing medical equipment industry so far suggest that our own flexible cluster model considering the industry structure and maturity for different regions should be developed, and specific action plans from the local and central governments based on their systematic strategies for industry development should be implemented in order to build world-competitive industry clusters in Korea.

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Improving the Accuracy of Document Classification by Learning Heterogeneity (이질성 학습을 통한 문서 분류의 정확성 향상 기법)

  • Wong, William Xiu Shun;Hyun, Yoonjin;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.21-44
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, the rapid development of internet technology and the popularization of smart devices have resulted in massive amounts of text data. Those text data were produced and distributed through various media platforms such as World Wide Web, Internet news feeds, microblog, and social media. However, this enormous amount of easily obtained information is lack of organization. Therefore, this problem has raised the interest of many researchers in order to manage this huge amount of information. Further, this problem also required professionals that are capable of classifying relevant information and hence text classification is introduced. Text classification is a challenging task in modern data analysis, which it needs to assign a text document into one or more predefined categories or classes. In text classification field, there are different kinds of techniques available such as K-Nearest Neighbor, Naïve Bayes Algorithm, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Artificial Neural Network. However, while dealing with huge amount of text data, model performance and accuracy becomes a challenge. According to the type of words used in the corpus and type of features created for classification, the performance of a text classification model can be varied. Most of the attempts are been made based on proposing a new algorithm or modifying an existing algorithm. This kind of research can be said already reached their certain limitations for further improvements. In this study, aside from proposing a new algorithm or modifying the algorithm, we focus on searching a way to modify the use of data. It is widely known that classifier performance is influenced by the quality of training data upon which this classifier is built. The real world datasets in most of the time contain noise, or in other words noisy data, these can actually affect the decision made by the classifiers built from these data. In this study, we consider that the data from different domains, which is heterogeneous data might have the characteristics of noise which can be utilized in the classification process. In order to build the classifier, machine learning algorithm is performed based on the assumption that the characteristics of training data and target data are the same or very similar to each other. However, in the case of unstructured data such as text, the features are determined according to the vocabularies included in the document. If the viewpoints of the learning data and target data are different, the features may be appearing different between these two data. In this study, we attempt to improve the classification accuracy by strengthening the robustness of the document classifier through artificially injecting the noise into the process of constructing the document classifier. With data coming from various kind of sources, these data are likely formatted differently. These cause difficulties for traditional machine learning algorithms because they are not developed to recognize different type of data representation at one time and to put them together in same generalization. Therefore, in order to utilize heterogeneous data in the learning process of document classifier, we apply semi-supervised learning in our study. However, unlabeled data might have the possibility to degrade the performance of the document classifier. Therefore, we further proposed a method called Rule Selection-Based Ensemble Semi-Supervised Learning Algorithm (RSESLA) to select only the documents that contributing to the accuracy improvement of the classifier. RSESLA creates multiple views by manipulating the features using different types of classification models and different types of heterogeneous data. The most confident classification rules will be selected and applied for the final decision making. In this paper, three different types of real-world data sources were used, which are news, twitter and blogs.

Data Mining Approaches for DDoS Attack Detection (분산 서비스거부 공격 탐지를 위한 데이터 마이닝 기법)

  • Kim, Mi-Hui;Na, Hyun-Jung;Chae, Ki-Joon;Bang, Hyo-Chan;Na, Jung-Chan
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.279-290
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    • 2005
  • Recently, as the serious damage caused by DDoS attacks increases, the rapid detection and the proper response mechanisms are urgent. However, existing security mechanisms do not effectively defend against these attacks, or the defense capability of some mechanisms is only limited to specific DDoS attacks. In this paper, we propose a detection architecture against DDoS attack using data mining technology that can classify the latest types of DDoS attack, and can detect the modification of existing attacks as well as the novel attacks. This architecture consists of a Misuse Detection Module modeling to classify the existing attacks, and an Anomaly Detection Module modeling to detect the novel attacks. And it utilizes the off-line generated models in order to detect the DDoS attack using the real-time traffic. We gathered the NetFlow data generated at an access router of our network in order to model the real network traffic and test it. The NetFlow provides the useful flow-based statistical information without tremendous preprocessing. Also, we mounted the well-known DDoS attack tools to gather the attack traffic. And then, our experimental results show that our approach can provide the outstanding performance against existing attacks, and provide the possibility of detection against the novel attack.