• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.581-591
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• 2023

North Anatolian Fault Zone is tectonically active with recent earthquakes (Mw7.6 1999-Kocaeli and Mw7.2 1999-Düzce earthquakes) and it passes through Marmara region, which is highly industrialized, densely populated and economically important part of Turkey. Many power plants, located in Marmara region, are exposed to high seismic hazard. In this study, open source OpenQuake software has been used for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of Marmara region and risk assessment for the specified energy facility. The SHARE project seismic zonation model has been used in the analysis with the regional sources, NGA GMPEs and site model logic trees. The earthquake hazard results have been compared with the former and existing earthquake resistant design regulations in Turkey, TSC 2007 and TBSCD 2018. In the scope of the study, the seismic hazard assessment for a typical natural gas combined cycle power plant located in Marmara region has been achieved. The seismic risk assessment has been accomplished for a typical control building located in the power plant using obtained seismic hazard results. The structural and non-structural fragility functions and a consequence model have been used in the seismic risk assessment. Based on the seismic hazard level with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considered for especially these type of critical structures, the ratios of structural and non-structural loss to the total building cost were obtained as 8.8% and 45.7%, respectively. The results of the study enable the practical seismic risk assessment of the critical facility located on different regions.

• 의료ㆍ복지 건축 : 한국의료복지건축학회 논문집
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.31-39
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to analyse the hazard risk by examining the magnitude and severity of each type of hazard in order to mitigate and prepare for disasters in medical facilities. Methods: The hazard risk analysis for hazard types was surveyed for team leaders of medical facilities. The questionnaire analyzed data from 27 facilities, which were returned from 41 Local Medical Centers. Results: When looking at the 'Risk' by category type of hazard, the influence of health safety and fire/energy safety comes first, followed by natural disaster, facility safety, and crime safety. On the other hand, as for 'Magnitude', facility safety and crime safety come first, followed by health safety, fire/energy safety, and natural disasters. Most of the top types of disaster judged to have high hazard in medical facilities are health types. The top five priorities of hazard in medical facilities, they are affected by the geographical and industrial conditions of the treatment area. In the case of cities, the hazard was found to be high in the order of infectious disease, patient surge, and wind and flood damage. On the other hand, in rural areas, livestock diseases and infectious diseases showed the highest hazard. In the case of forest areas, the hazard was high in the order of wildfire, fire accident, lightning, tide, earthquake, and landslide, whereas in coastal areas of industrial complexes, the hazard was high due to fire, landslide, water pollution, marine pollution, and chemical spill accident. Implications: Through the research, standards will be established for the design of hospitals with disaster preparedness, and will contribute to the preparation of preemptive measures in terms of maintenance.

• 한국방재학회지
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.61-70
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• 2008

• 한국지역지리학회지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.247-255
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• 2002

과학기술의 발달에 힘입어 자연현상에 대한 인간의 조절능력은 획기적인 발전을 거듭하고 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 최근 수십년간 자연재해와 관련된 비용이 세계적으로 증가하고 있는데, 이는 새로운 형태의 대규모 자연재해가 급증하고 있기 때문이다. 이러한 경향은 여러 가지 측면에서 나라나고 있으며, 향후 더 큰 규모의 재앙이 더욱 빈번하게 나타날 가능성도 감지되고 있다. 특히, 특정 재해의 위험성에 대하여 올바르게 인지하지 못하는 현상은 재해에 대한 위험성을 전이시키고 장기적으로는 재해에 대한 사회적 취약성을 확대시킬 수 있는 여지를 가지고 있다. 따라서 재해에 대한 올바른 인지와 이에 대한 효과적인 적응양식을 지역의 사회 경제적 구조와 연결지어 분석하는 작업은 환경재해로 일컬어지는 인위적 재해의 발생을 줄일 수 있는 중요한 작업이다.

• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.91-101
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• 2010

전세계적으로 지구온난화에 따른 기상이변으로 자연재해의 발생빈도가 증가하고 있는 가운데 최근 한반도에서는 게릴라성 집중호우 및 태풍에 의한 대규모 홍수 및 산사태로 인하여 많은 피해가 발생하였다. 해마다 반복되는 이들 자연재해에 대해 예방 대비 및 대응을 위해서는 기존의 재해정보에 대한 체계적 관리 및 고도화와 함께 재해관리 전반의 개선이 요구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 자연재해에 대한 지역별 특성을 고려한 재해관리 및 대응기능 강화와 재해 현장에 필요한 정보를 효과적으로 제공하기 위한 방안으로 수치영상 기반의 다목적 재해정보지도를 구축 하였다. 최신의 지형공간정보와 재해속성정보의 융합을 통해 구축된 새로운 개념의 다목적 재해정보지도는 피해현황 및 상황의 가독성을 높여 피난활용 및 신속한 의사결정지원 등에 활용할 수 있어 향후, 재해정보관 리시스템 및 피해조사시스템 개발시 유용한 정보로 사용될 것이다.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제13권7호
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• pp.3244-3251
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• 2012

대형 해양구조물의 건설과 운영에서 중요한 항목 중의 하나가 재해위험도를 분석하고 평가하는 것이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 수중터널의 건설과 운영 시에 발생할 수 있는 재해 위험요소를 도출하고 퍼지 AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) 방법으로 이러한 위험요소의 수준을 파악하고자 하였다. 재해 위험도로는 자연재해 위험도와 인적재해 위험도로 구분하고 이러한 위험도 항목들이 수중터널에 미치는 영향을 전문가 설문을 통하여 조사하였다. 조사된 전문가 설문결과 데이터를 퍼지 AHP 기법으로 분석하여 재해위험도를 각 위험요소별로 정량화하였다. 또한, 수중 터널과 교량, 해저터널, 침매터널의 재해위험도 수준을 분석하여 수중터널이 가지고 있는 고유의 재해위험도 수준을 평가하였다. 재해위험도에서는 쯔나미와 지진이 가장 위험도 인식수준이 높았고, 인적재해 위험도는 화재와 폭발의 위험도 인식이 높은 수준이었다. 또한, 수중터널은 침매터널에 비해서는 1.4배, 교량에 비해서는 3.2배 위험도 인식수준이 높은 것으로 조사되었다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.173-191
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• 2009

Civil infrastructures are always subjected to various types of hazard and deterioration. These conditions require systematic efforts to assess the exposure and vulnerability of infrastructure, as well as producing strategic countermeasures to reduce the risks. This paper describes the needs for and concept of advanced sensor technologies for risk assessment of civil infrastructure in Japan. Backgrounds of the infrastructure problems such as natural disasters, difficult environment, limited resource for maintenance, and increasing requirement for safety are discussed. The paper presents a concept of risk assessment, which is defined as a combination of hazard and structural vulnerability assessment. An overview of current practices and research activities toward implementing the concept is presented. This includes implementation of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems for environment and natural disaster prevention, improvement of stock management, and prevention of structural failure.

• Advances in Computational Design
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.91-109
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• 2020

Over the past few decades, the impact of natural, manmade and natech (natural hazard triggering technological disasters) disasters has been devastating, affecting over 4.4 billion people. In spite of recent technological advances, the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and the escalation of manmade threats is presenting a number of challenges that warrant immediate attention. This paper explores the integration of drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV's) into infrastructure monitoring and post-disaster assessment. Through reviewing some of the recent disasters, effectiveness of utilizing UAV's in different stages of disaster life cycle is demonstrated and needed steps for successful integration of UAV's in infrastructure monitoring, hazard mitigation and post-incident assessment applications are discussed. In addition, some of the challenges associated with implementing UAV's in disaster monitoring, together with research needs to overcome associated knowledge gaps, is presented.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제29권8호
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• pp.1188-1196
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• 2016

This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model ($r=1.82{\times}10^{-11}$) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were $12.40{\pm}19.43g$ and $19.46{\pm}14.39g$, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=91$; ${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=309$)${\times}$uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be -2.35 and -2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were $9.57{\times}10^{-14}$ and $3.58{\times}10^{-14}$, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by consumption cheese is low, and it can be used to establish microbial criteria for C. perfringens on natural and processed cheeses.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.263-266
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• 2003

This paper is intended to compare between the Bayesian estimates of hazard rate and the hazard rates of mixed distributions. In estimating hazard rates, especially when the MLE method is used, such difficulties as a lack of data and the existence of censored data make it difficult to estimate the rates. For this reason, the estimates of hazard rate based on the Bayesian approach are introduced. For the simplicity, the exponential and gamma distributions are adopted as a sampling distribution and its natural conjugate prior distribution, respectively.