• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.307-317
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• 2016

According to most of energy sector experts, at least in the next two decades, fossil energy plays important role in fulfilling required energy in the world. Based on these conditions, the investigation of the conditions of major countries providing natural gas in the world can be useful in analysis of future development of this clean fuel. According to the latest estimations of British Petroleum Company, Iran with 18.2% natural gas reservoirs has the first natural gas reservoirs in the world. The main purpose of this paper is developing scenarios of gas industry in Iran. To achieve the mentioned goals, besides investigation of existing methods of scenario design and existing production scenarios, natural gas export and consumption in Iran and the world in 2035, the most important scenarios of gas industry in Iran are formulated by critical uncertainty analysis approach using quantitative advanced time based impact analysis in 2035 horizon.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.259-266
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• 2015

Among many energy resources, natural gas has recently received a remarkable amount of attention, particularly from the electrical generation industry. This is in part due to increasing shale gas production, providing an environment-friendly fossil fuel, and high risk of nuclear power. Because South Korea, the world's second largest LNG importing nation after Japan, has no international natural gas pipelines and relies on imports in the form of LNG, the natural gas has been traditionally procured by long term LNG contracts at relatively high price. Thus, there is a need of developing an Asian LNG trading hub, where LNG can be traded at more competitive spot prices. In a natural gas spot market, the amount of natural gas to be bought should be carefully determined considering a limited storage capacity and future pricing dynamics. In this work, the problem to find the optimal amount of natural gas in a spot market is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP) in risk neutral environment and the optimal base stock policy which depends on a stage and price is established. Taking into account price and demand uncertainties, the basestock target levels are simply approximated from dynamic programming. The simulation results show that the basestock policy can be one of effective ways for procurement of LNG in a spot market.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.167-198
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper aims to compare and analyze the co-movements and information spillover effects between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets during the COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crises. Design/methodology - The DCC-GARCH model is used in the co-movements analysis. In contrast, the BEKK-GARCH model is used to evaluate information spillover effects. The statistical data used is from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2022. It comprises the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data and daily international commodity futures prices of natural gas, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel, soybean, and wheat. Findings - The results of the co-movement analysis were as follows: First, it was shown that the co-movements between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets were temporarily strengthened when the COVID-19 and 2008 financial crises occurred. Second, the South Korean stock markets were shown to have high correlations with the copper, nickel, and crude oil futures markets. The results of the information spillover effects analysis are as follows: First, before the 2008 financial crisis, four commodity futures markets (natural gas, gold, copper, and wheat) were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets. In contrast, seven commodity futures markets, except for the natural gas futures market, were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets after the financial crisis. Second, before the COVID-19 crisis, most international commodity futures markets, excluding natural gas and crude oil future markets, were shown to have led the South Korean stock markets in one direction. Third, it was revealed that after the COVID-19 crisis, the connections between the South Korean stock markets and the international commodity futures markets, except for natural gas, crude oil, and gold, were completely severed. Originality/value - Useful information for portfolio strategy establishment can be provided to investors through the results of this study. In addition, it is judged that financial policy authorities can utilize the results as data for efficient regulation of the financial market and policy establishment.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.377-384
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• 2017

Amid growing concerns about energy security, energy prices, economic competitiveness, and climate change, district heating (DH) system has been recognized for its significant benefits and the part it can play in efficiently meeting society's growing energy demands while reducing environmental impacts. Policy makers often need to quantify the fuel and carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) emissions savings of DH system compared to conventional individual heating (IH) system in order to estimate its actual emissions reductions. The objective of this paper is to calculate energy efficiency and $CO_2$ emissions saving, and to propose the future direction for DH system in Korea. DH system achieved total system efficiencies of 67.9% compared to 54.1% for IH system in 2015. DH system reduced $CO_2$ emissions by $381,311ton-CO_2$ (4.1%) compared to IH system. The results suggest that DH system is more preferred than IH system using natural gas. In Korea, the aim is to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and to use energy more efficiently. DH system have significant potential with regard to achieving this aim, because DH system are already integrated with power generation in the electricity since combined heating and power (CHP) are used for heat supply. Although the future conditions for DH may look promising, the current DH system in Korea must be enhanced in order to handle future competition. Thus, the next DH system must be integrated with multiple renewable energy and waste heat energy sources.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.125-140
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• 2018

본 연구는 2009년 1월 2일부터 2018년 6월 29일까지 원유가격(Brent, Dubai, WTI)의 3대 유종과 BDI의 일별가격 자료를 이용하여 원유가격과 BDI의 상호관련성를 변화율과 변동성 측면에서 분석하였다. 기존연구와 달리 VAR, Granger 인과검정, GARCH, DCC 모형을 이용하여 BDI와 원유가격 사이의 상호관련성을 변화율 측면과 변동성 측면 모두를 분석하였다. 상호관련성 분석결과 원유가격 변화율과 변동성이 BDI 변화율에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며 BDI 변동성이 원유가격 변화율과 변동성에 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 원유가격과 BDI 사이에는 상호 영향을 주고받는 관계가 확인되었지만 상관정도는 낮은 편이라고 볼 수 있다. 이는 전 세계적으로 현재 천연가스에 대한 수요가 증가하고 신재생에너지에 대한 수요가 증대됨에 따라 원유에 대한 의존도가 하락하고 있으므로 둘 간의 상호관련성은 시간이 지남에 따라 더 낮아질 수도 있을 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 향후 국제 해운(실물경제) 및 원유시장의 투자와 거시경제 분석에 있어서 원자재에 대한 수요 변화에 초점을 맞추어 나갈 필요가 있을 것으로 보인다.

• 에너지공학
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.170-180
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• 2007

본 연구에서는 증기개질 방식으로 천연가스와 납사를 연료로 하여 수소를 생산하는 국내 분산형 수소충전소의 규모의 경제성 문제를 다루었다. 분산형 수소충전소의 수소 생산규모는 $30\;Nm^3/hr,\;100\;Nm^3/hr,\;300\;Nm^3/hr$ 등을 분석대상으로 하였다. 분산형 수소충전소의 초기투자비 및 연간운영비, 수소 판매가격 등을 주요변수로 하는 전통적인 경제성 분석모형을 수립하였으며 수소 판매가격과 할인율을 대상으로 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 천연가스를 원료로 하는 수소충전소의 수소가격은 $30\;Nm^3/hr,\;100\;Nm^3/hr,\;300\;Nm^3/hr$ 등의 생산규모에 대하여 각기 18,472원/kg, 10,686원/kg, 7,758원/kg이며, 천연가스 대신에 납사를 사용하여도 거의 비슷한 수소 가격을 갖는 것으로 추정되었다. 현 시점에서 $300\;Nm^3/hr$ 이하의 수소충전소는 경제성이 부족한 것으로 나타났으며, 이러한 경제성 분석결과는 향후에 분산형 수소충전소를 건설할 때 중대형 생산규모 이상의 수소충전소를 중심으로 보급하는 것이 바람직한 방안인 것을 시사하고 있다.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신재생에너지학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회 초록집
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• pp.172-172
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• 2011

Anaerobic digestion(AD) has successfully been used for many applications that have conclusively demonstrated its ability to recycle biogenic wastes. AD has been successfully applied in industrial waste water treatment, stabilsation of sewage sludge, landfill management and recycling of biowaste and agricultural wastes as manure, energy crops. During AD, i.e. organic materials are decomposed by anaerobic forming bacteria and fina1ly converted to excellent fertilizer and biogas which is primarily composed of methane(CH4) and carbon dioxide(CO2) with smaller amounts of hydrogen sulfide(H2S) and ammonia(NH3), trace gases such as hydrogen(H2), nitrogen(N2), carbon monoxide(CO), oxygen(O2) and contain dust particles and siloxanes. The production and utilisation of biogas has several environmental advantages such as i)a renewable energy source, ii)reduction the release of methane to the atomsphere, iii)use as a substitute for fossil fuels. In utilisation of biogas, most of biogas produced from small scale plant e.g. farm-scale AD plant are used to provide as energy source for cooking and lighting, in most of the industrialised countries for energy recovery, environmental and safety reasons are used in combined heat and power(CHP) engines or as a supplement to natural. In particular, biogas to use as vehicle fuel or for grid injection there different biogas treatment steps are necessary, it is important to have a high energy content in biogas with biogas purification and upgrading. The energy content of biogas is in direct proportion to the methane content and by removing trace gases and carbon dioxide in the purification and upgrading process the energy content of biogas in increased. The process of purification and upgrading biogas generates new possibilities for its use since it can then replace natural gas, which is used extensively in many countries, However, those technologies add to the costs of biogas production. It is important to have an optimized purification and upgrading process in terms of low energy consumption and high efficiency giving high methane content in the upgraded gas. A number of technologies for purification and upgrading of biogas have been developed to use as a vehicle fuel or grid injection during the passed twenty years, and several technologies exist today and they are continually being improved. The biomethane which is produced from the purification and the upgrading process of biogas has gained increased attention due to rising oil and natural gas prices and increasing targets for renewable fuel quotes in many countries. New plants are continually being built and the number of biomethane plants was around 100 in 2009.