• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.307-317
• /
• 2016

According to most of energy sector experts, at least in the next two decades, fossil energy plays important role in fulfilling required energy in the world. Based on these conditions, the investigation of the conditions of major countries providing natural gas in the world can be useful in analysis of future development of this clean fuel. According to the latest estimations of British Petroleum Company, Iran with 18.2% natural gas reservoirs has the first natural gas reservoirs in the world. The main purpose of this paper is developing scenarios of gas industry in Iran. To achieve the mentioned goals, besides investigation of existing methods of scenario design and existing production scenarios, natural gas export and consumption in Iran and the world in 2035, the most important scenarios of gas industry in Iran are formulated by critical uncertainty analysis approach using quantitative advanced time based impact analysis in 2035 horizon.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.41 no.3
• /
• pp.259-266
• /
• 2015

Among many energy resources, natural gas has recently received a remarkable amount of attention, particularly from the electrical generation industry. This is in part due to increasing shale gas production, providing an environment-friendly fossil fuel, and high risk of nuclear power. Because South Korea, the world's second largest LNG importing nation after Japan, has no international natural gas pipelines and relies on imports in the form of LNG, the natural gas has been traditionally procured by long term LNG contracts at relatively high price. Thus, there is a need of developing an Asian LNG trading hub, where LNG can be traded at more competitive spot prices. In a natural gas spot market, the amount of natural gas to be bought should be carefully determined considering a limited storage capacity and future pricing dynamics. In this work, the problem to find the optimal amount of natural gas in a spot market is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP) in risk neutral environment and the optimal base stock policy which depends on a stage and price is established. Taking into account price and demand uncertainties, the basestock target levels are simply approximated from dynamic programming. The simulation results show that the basestock policy can be one of effective ways for procurement of LNG in a spot market.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.27 no.5
• /
• pp.167-198
• /
• 2023

Purpose - This paper aims to compare and analyze the co-movements and information spillover effects between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets during the COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crises. Design/methodology - The DCC-GARCH model is used in the co-movements analysis. In contrast, the BEKK-GARCH model is used to evaluate information spillover effects. The statistical data used is from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2022. It comprises the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data and daily international commodity futures prices of natural gas, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel, soybean, and wheat. Findings - The results of the co-movement analysis were as follows: First, it was shown that the co-movements between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets were temporarily strengthened when the COVID-19 and 2008 financial crises occurred. Second, the South Korean stock markets were shown to have high correlations with the copper, nickel, and crude oil futures markets. The results of the information spillover effects analysis are as follows: First, before the 2008 financial crisis, four commodity futures markets (natural gas, gold, copper, and wheat) were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets. In contrast, seven commodity futures markets, except for the natural gas futures market, were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets after the financial crisis. Second, before the COVID-19 crisis, most international commodity futures markets, excluding natural gas and crude oil future markets, were shown to have led the South Korean stock markets in one direction. Third, it was revealed that after the COVID-19 crisis, the connections between the South Korean stock markets and the international commodity futures markets, except for natural gas, crude oil, and gold, were completely severed. Originality/value - Useful information for portfolio strategy establishment can be provided to investors through the results of this study. In addition, it is judged that financial policy authorities can utilize the results as data for efficient regulation of the financial market and policy establishment.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.377-384
• /
• 2017

Amid growing concerns about energy security, energy prices, economic competitiveness, and climate change, district heating (DH) system has been recognized for its significant benefits and the part it can play in efficiently meeting society's growing energy demands while reducing environmental impacts. Policy makers often need to quantify the fuel and carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) emissions savings of DH system compared to conventional individual heating (IH) system in order to estimate its actual emissions reductions. The objective of this paper is to calculate energy efficiency and $CO_2$ emissions saving, and to propose the future direction for DH system in Korea. DH system achieved total system efficiencies of 67.9% compared to 54.1% for IH system in 2015. DH system reduced $CO_2$ emissions by $381,311ton-CO_2$ (4.1%) compared to IH system. The results suggest that DH system is more preferred than IH system using natural gas. In Korea, the aim is to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and to use energy more efficiently. DH system have significant potential with regard to achieving this aim, because DH system are already integrated with power generation in the electricity since combined heating and power (CHP) are used for heat supply. Although the future conditions for DH may look promising, the current DH system in Korea must be enhanced in order to handle future competition. Thus, the next DH system must be integrated with multiple renewable energy and waste heat energy sources.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.34 no.4
• /
• pp.125-140
• /
• 2018

This study uses daily price data on three major types of crude oil (Brent, Dubai, and WTI) and BDI from January 2, 2009 to June 29, 2018, to compare the relationship between crude oil prices and BDI for rate of change and volatility. Unlike previous studies, the correlation between BDI and crude oil prices was analyzed both the rate of change and variability, VARs, Granger Causality Test, and the GARCH and DCC models were employed. The correlation analysis, indicated that the crude oil price change rate and volatility affect the BDI change rate and that BDI volatility affects the crude oil price change rate and volatility. The relationship between oil prices and BDI is identified, but their correlation is low, which is likely a result of lower dependence on crude oil as demand for natural gas increases worldwide and demand for renewable energy decreases. These trends could result in lower correlations over time. Therefore, focusing on the changing demand for raw materials in future investments in international shipping(real economy) and oil markets and macroeconomic analysis is necessary.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
• /
• v.16 no.4
• /
• pp.170-180
• /
• 2007

This paper deals with the economy of scale for domestic on-site hydrogen stations fueled with natural gas and naptha. We evaluate the economic feasibility of on-site hydrogen stations with hydrogen production capacities of $30Nm^3/hr,\;100Nm^3/hr\;and\;300Nm^3/hr$. We build a classical economic feasibility model and we make some sensitivity analyses by changing the values of input factors such as the hydrogen sale price and the discount rate. The estimated hydrogen prices of steam methane reforming stations with production capacities of $30\;Nm^3/hr,\;100\;Nm^3/hr\;and\;300\;Nm^3/hr$ are 18,472 won/kg, 10,689 won/kg and 7,758 won/kg, respectively. Also, the hydrogen prices are about the same if we use naptha as a raw material for hydrogen energy instead of natural gas. It turns out that small and medium size domestic on-site hydrogen stations will not be economical in the near future. This indicates that we need to construct large scale on-site hydrogen fueling stations even for the initial phase of the hydrogen economy.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2011.05a
• /
• pp.172-172
• /
• 2011

Anaerobic digestion(AD) has successfully been used for many applications that have conclusively demonstrated its ability to recycle biogenic wastes. AD has been successfully applied in industrial waste water treatment, stabilsation of sewage sludge, landfill management and recycling of biowaste and agricultural wastes as manure, energy crops. During AD, i.e. organic materials are decomposed by anaerobic forming bacteria and fina1ly converted to excellent fertilizer and biogas which is primarily composed of methane(CH4) and carbon dioxide(CO2) with smaller amounts of hydrogen sulfide(H2S) and ammonia(NH3), trace gases such as hydrogen(H2), nitrogen(N2), carbon monoxide(CO), oxygen(O2) and contain dust particles and siloxanes. The production and utilisation of biogas has several environmental advantages such as i)a renewable energy source, ii)reduction the release of methane to the atomsphere, iii)use as a substitute for fossil fuels. In utilisation of biogas, most of biogas produced from small scale plant e.g. farm-scale AD plant are used to provide as energy source for cooking and lighting, in most of the industrialised countries for energy recovery, environmental and safety reasons are used in combined heat and power(CHP) engines or as a supplement to natural. In particular, biogas to use as vehicle fuel or for grid injection there different biogas treatment steps are necessary, it is important to have a high energy content in biogas with biogas purification and upgrading. The energy content of biogas is in direct proportion to the methane content and by removing trace gases and carbon dioxide in the purification and upgrading process the energy content of biogas in increased. The process of purification and upgrading biogas generates new possibilities for its use since it can then replace natural gas, which is used extensively in many countries, However, those technologies add to the costs of biogas production. It is important to have an optimized purification and upgrading process in terms of low energy consumption and high efficiency giving high methane content in the upgraded gas. A number of technologies for purification and upgrading of biogas have been developed to use as a vehicle fuel or grid injection during the passed twenty years, and several technologies exist today and they are continually being improved. The biomethane which is produced from the purification and the upgrading process of biogas has gained increased attention due to rising oil and natural gas prices and increasing targets for renewable fuel quotes in many countries. New plants are continually being built and the number of biomethane plants was around 100 in 2009.