• Title/Summary/Keyword: NPV Analysis

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Prediction of Improvement of Myocardial Wall Motion after Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery Using Rest T1-201/Dipyridamole Stress Gated Tc-99m-MIBI/24 Hour Delay T1-201 SPECT (휴식기 T1-201/디피리다몰 부하 게이트 Tc-99m-MIBI/24시간 지연 T1-201 SPECT를 이용한 관상동맥 우회로 수술 후 심근벽 운동 호전의 예측)

  • Lee, Dong-Soo;Lee, Won-Woo;Yeo, Jeong-Seok;Kim, Seok-Ki;Kim, Ki-Bong;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.497-508
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    • 1998
  • Purpose: Using rest T1-201/dipyridamole stress gated Tc-99m-MIBI/ 24 hour delay T1-201 SPECT, we investigated the predictive values of the markers of the stress-rest reversibility (Rev), T1-201 rest perfusion (Rest), T1-201 24 hour redistribution (Del) and Tc-99m-MIBI gated systolic thickening (Thk) for wall motion improvement after coronary artery bypass surgery. Materials and Methods: In 39 patients (M;F= 34:5, age $58{\pm}8$), preoperative and postoperative (3 months) SPECT were compared. 24 hour delayed SPECT was done in 16 patients having perfusion defects at rest. Perfusion or wall motion was scored from 0 to 3 (0: normal to 3: defect or dyskinesia). Wall motion was abnormal in 142 segments among 585 segments of 99 artery territories which were surgically revascularized. Results: After bypass surgery, ejection fraction increased from $37.8{\pm}9.0%$ to $45.5{\pm}12.3%$ in 22 patients who had decreased ejection fraction preoperatively. Wall motion improved in 103 (72.5%) segments among 142 dysfunctional segments. Positive predictive values (PPV) of Rev, Rest, Del, and Thk were 83%, 76%, 43%, and 69% respectively. Negative predictive values (NPV) of Rev, Rest, Del, and Thk were 48%, 44%, 58%, and 21%, respectively. Rest/gated stress/delay SPECT had PPV of 74% and NPV of 46%. Though univariate logistic regression analysis revealed Rev (p=0.0008) and Rest (p=0.024) as significant predictors, stepwise multivariate test found Rev as the only good predictor (p=0.0008). Conclusion: Among independent predictors obtained by rest T1-201/ stress gated Tc-99m-MIBI/ delayed T1-201 myocardial SPECT for wall motion improvement after bypass surgery, stress-rest reversibility was the single most useful predictor.

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Development of Valuation Framework for Estimating the Market Value of Media Contents (미디어 콘텐츠의 시장가치 산정을 위한 가치평가 프레임워크 개발)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2016
  • Since the late 20th century, there has been much effort to improve the market value of media contents which are commercialized in a digital format, by fusing digital data of video, audio, numerals, characters with IT technology together. Then by what criteria and methodologies could the market value for the drama "Sons of the Sun" or the animated film 'Frozen', often referred to in the meida, be estimated? In the circumstances there has been little or no research on the valuation framework of media contents and the status of their valuation system development to date, we propose a practical valuation models for various purposes such as contents trading, review of investment adequacy, etc., by formalizing and presenting a contents valuation framework for the four types of media of movies, online games, and broadcasting commercials, and animations. Therefore, we develope computational methods of cash flows which includes production cost by media content types, provide reference databases associated with key variables of valuation (economic life cycle, discount rates, contents contribution and royalty rates), and finally propose the valuation framework of media contents based on both income approach and relief-from-royalty method which has been applied to valuation of intangible assets so far.

A Study on Public Interest-based Technology Valuation Models in Water Resources Field (수자원 분야 공익형 기술가치평가 시스템에 대한 연구)

  • Ryu, Seung-Mi;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.177-198
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    • 2018
  • Recently, as economic property it has become necessary to acquire and utilize the framework for water resource measurement and performance management as the property of water resources changes to hold "public property". To date, the evaluation of water technology has been carried out by feasibility study analysis or technology assessment based on net present value (NPV) or benefit-to-cost (B/C) effect, however it is not yet systemized in terms of valuation models to objectively assess an economic value of technology-based business to receive diffusion and feedback of research outcomes. Therefore, K-water (known as a government-supported public company in Korea) company feels the necessity to establish a technology valuation framework suitable for technical characteristics of water resources fields in charge and verify an exemplified case applied to the technology. The K-water evaluation technology applied to this study, as a public interest goods, can be used as a tool to measure the value and achievement contributed to society and to manage them. Therefore, by calculating the value in which the subject technology contributed to the entire society as a public resource, we make use of it as a basis information for the advertising medium of performance on the influence effect of the benefits or the necessity of cost input, and then secure the legitimacy for large-scale R&D cost input in terms of the characteristics of public technology. Hence, K-water company, one of the public corporation in Korea which deals with public goods of 'water resources', will be able to establish a commercialization strategy for business operation and prepare for a basis for the performance calculation of input R&D cost. In this study, K-water has developed a web-based technology valuation model for public interest type water resources based on the technology evaluation system that is suitable for the characteristics of a technology in water resources fields. In particular, by utilizing the evaluation methodology of the Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) in Japan to match the expense items to the expense accounts based on the related benefit items, we proposed the so-called 'K-water's proprietary model' which involves the 'cost-benefit' approach and the FCF (Free Cash Flow), and ultimately led to build a pipeline on the K-water research performance management system and then verify the practical case of a technology related to "desalination". We analyze the embedded design logic and evaluation process of web-based valuation system that reflects characteristics of water resources technology, reference information and database(D/B)-associated logic for each model to calculate public interest-based and profit-based technology values in technology integrated management system. We review the hybrid evaluation module that reflects the quantitative index of the qualitative evaluation indices reflecting the unique characteristics of water resources and the visualized user-interface (UI) of the actual web-based evaluation, which both are appended for calculating the business value based on financial data to the existing web-based technology valuation systems in other fields. K-water's technology valuation model is evaluated by distinguishing between public-interest type and profitable-type water technology. First, evaluation modules in profit-type technology valuation model are designed based on 'profitability of technology'. For example, the technology inventory K-water holds has a number of profit-oriented technologies such as water treatment membranes. On the other hand, the public interest-type technology valuation is designed to evaluate the public-interest oriented technology such as the dam, which reflects the characteristics of public benefits and costs. In order to examine the appropriateness of the cost-benefit based public utility valuation model (i.e. K-water specific technology valuation model) presented in this study, we applied to practical cases from calculation of benefit-to-cost analysis on water resource technology with 20 years of lifetime. In future we will additionally conduct verifying the K-water public utility-based valuation model by each business model which reflects various business environmental characteristics.

Development of Evaluation Model for ITS Project using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도분석을 이용한 ITS사업의 경제성평가모형)

  • Lee, Yong-Taeck;Nam, Doo-Hee;Lim, Kang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.

Optimizing Total Transport Cost Incurred under Specific Port System: With a Case of Managing POSCO-owned Berths (특수항만구조하에서의 물류비용 최적화에 관한 연구 - 포항제철의 원료부두 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Weon-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.42-55
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    • 2010
  • This paper primarily deals with a decision-making for determining the number of voyages in each ship size under a specific port structure in order to minimize the total transport cost consisting of transport cost at sea, queuing cost in port, and inventory cost in yard. As a result of computer simulation using queuing model characterized by inter-arrival time distribution, we were able to find out some combination of voyage numbers of 3 ship-size(50,000-ton, 100,000-ton, and 200,000-ton), where the total transport cost can be minimized under a specific port structure. The simulation model also allows us to figure out any trade-off relationship among sea transport cost, queuing cost in port, and inventory cost in yard. Put it differently, an attempt to reduce the sea transport cost by increasing the number of voyages of the largest ship size, the transport cost incurred in both port and yard is hypothesized to be increased and vice versa. Consequently, Port managers are required to adjust the number of annual number of voyages allocated in each ship size, put into the sea lines for importing raw materials, in order to optimize the transport costs incurred under the specific port system. We may consider a net present value(NPV) model for performing an economic feasibility analysis on port investment project. If a total discounted net benefit, including cost savings, exceeds the initial investment for an additional berth construction, then we accept the port investment project. Otherwise, we reject the proposed port investment plan.

Comparison of Automated Breast Volume Scanning and Hand-Held Ultrasound in the Detection of Breast Cancer: an Analysis of 5,566 Patient Evaluations

  • Choi, Woo Jung;Cha, Joo Hee;Kim, Hak Hee;Shin, Hee Jung;Kim, Hyunji;Chae, Eun Young;Hong, Min Ji
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.21
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    • pp.9101-9105
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    • 2014
  • Background: The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy and effectiveness of automated breast volume scanning (ABVS) and hand-held ultrasound (HHUS) in the detection of breast cancer in a large population group with a long-term follow-up, and to investigate whether different ultrasound systems may influence the estimation of cancer detection. Materials and Methods: Institutional review board approval was obtained for this retrospective study, and informed consent was waived. From September 2010 to August 2011, a total of 1,866 ABVS and 3,700 HHUS participants, who underwent these procedures at our institute, were included in this study. Cancers occurring during the study and subsequent follow-up were evaluated. The reference standard was a combination of histology and follow-up imaging (${\geq}12months$). The recall rate, cancer detection yield, diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values were calculated with exact 95% confidence intervals. Results: The recall rate was 2.57 per 1,000 (48/1,866) for ABVS and 3.57 per 1,000 (132/3,700) for HHUS, with a significant difference (p=0.048). The cancer detection yield was 3.8 per 1,000 for ABVS and 2.7 per 1,000 for HHUS. The diagnostic accuracy was 97.7% for ABVS and 96.5% for HHUS with statistical significance (p=0.018). The specificity of ABVS and HHUS were 97.8%, 96.7%, respectively (p=0.022). Conclusions: ABVS shows a comparable diagnostic performance to HHUS. ABVS is an effective supplemental tool for mammography in breast cancer detection in a large population.

Role of a Risk of Malignancy Index in Clinical Approaches to Adnexal Masses

  • Simsek, Hakki Sencer;Tokmak, Aytekin;Ozgu, Emre;Doganay, Melike;Danisman, Nuri;Erkaya, Salim;Gungor, Tayfun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.18
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    • pp.7793-7797
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    • 2014
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate predictive role of risk of malignancy index in discriminating between benign and malignant adnexal masses preoperatively. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted with a total of 569 patients with adnexal masses/ovarian cysts managed surgically at our clinic between January 2006 and January 2012. Obtained data from patient files were age, gravidity, parity, menopause status, ultrasound findings and CA125 levels. For all patients ultrasound scans were performed. For the assessment of risk of malignancy index (RMI) Jacobs' model was used. Histopathologic results of all patients were recorded postoperatively. Malignancy status of the surgically removed adnexal mass was the gold standard. Results: Of the total masses, 245 (43.1%) were malignant, 316 (55.5%) were benign and 8 (1.4%) were borderline. The mean age of benign cases was lower than malign cases ($35.2{\pm}10.9$ versus $50.8{\pm}13.4$, p<0.001). Four hundred and five of them (71.2%) were in premenopausal period. Malignant tumors were more frequent in postmenopausal women (81% versus 29%, p<0.001). All ultrasound parameters of RMI were statistically significantly favorable for malignant masses. In our study ROC curve analysis for RMI provided maximum Youden index at level of 163.85. When we based on cutoff level for RMI as 163.85 sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV was calculated 74.7%, 96.2%, 94% and 82.6%, respectively. Conclusions: RMI was found to be a significant marker in preoperative evaluation and management of patients with an adnexal mass, and was useful for referring patients to tertiary care centers. Although utilization of RMI provides increased diagnostic accuracy in preoperative evaluation of patient with an adnexal mass, new diagnostic tools with higher sensitivity and specificity are needed to discriminate ovarian cancer from benign masses.

Performance Evaluation of Substitution Radiopharmaceutical according to Restriction of the Radiocolloids in Lymphoscintigraphy (Lymphoscintigraphy에 이용되는 방사성의약품의 사용제한으로 인한 대체 방사성의약품의 성능평가)

  • Seo, Young-Deok;Jeong, Jae-Hun;Moon, Jong-Woon;Yun, Sang-Hyeok;Kim, Yeong-Seok;Kang, Se-Hun;Won, Woo-Jae;Kim, Seok-Ki
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.25-29
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: Several radioactive agents were used for lymphoscintigraphy in breast cancer. But recently, due to the change of local radiopharmaceutical licensing policy and discontinuation of supplies from manufacturer, we could not use many radiocolloids such as $^{99m}Tc$-Antimony Trisulfide Colloid, $^{99m}Tc$-Tin Colloid, $^{99m}Tc$-Human Serum Albumin. So it is necessary to use the substitution radiopharmaceutical. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the performance of substitution radiopharmaceutical ($^{99m}Tc$-Phytate) including the existing radiocolloids and to set up of the appropriate protocol in lymphoscintigraphy. Materials and Methods: For each radiocolloids ($^{99m}Tc$-Antimony Trisulfide Colloid (ASC), $^{99m}Tc$-Tin Colloid (TC), $^{99m}Tc$-Human Serum Albumin (HSA), $^{99m}Tc$-Phytate) were performed the particle size by Zeta Sizer (Nano-ZS) and we compared the radiolabeling time, procedure and acquisition time for each of the radiocolloids (total 200 patients). For the last time, we made an analysis of image for each of the radiocolloids with our previous report (SJ Jang et al, Korean Nucl Med Mol imaging Vol.41, No.6, Dec 2007). Results: The particle size of each radiocolloids showed A.S.C (50 nm), T.C (310 nm), H.S.A (10.8 nm), $^{99m}Tc$-Phytate (499 nm). The labeling and acquisition time for each of the radiocolloids showed no substantial difference. But there is difference of the labeling time for the A.S.C. because the ASC procedure need to boiling process. There were no significant differences among those radiocolloids (p>0.005) in the identification rate (IR), false negative rate (FNR), and negative predictive value (NPV). Conclusions: $^{99m}Tc$-labeled radiocolloids showed equivalent results in lymphoscintigraphy. Therefore, in this exam of each radiocolloids could be applied appropriate protocol in lymphoscintigraphy.

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An Economic Analysis of Industrial Forest Plantation and A/R CDM Project in Indonesia (인도네시아에서의 산업조림과 A/R CDM 사업 경제성 분석)

  • Park, Chongho;Kwon, Kiwon;Kim, Sebin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.96 no.3
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    • pp.348-356
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to give the results of economic feasibility of industrial forest plantations, and also A/R CDM project in Indonesia to investors. In order to analyze economic feasibility of the industrial forest plantation and A/R CDM project, this study comparatively analyzes the feasibility based on three following scenarios: industrial plantation type; A/R CDM type; combination type of industrial plantation and A/R CDM project. In the aspect of IRR, the combination type has 11 % while the industrial plantation type has 8%. If the price of timber increases USD $5/m^3$ (from the standard price: USD $30/m^3$ to USD $35/m^3$), IRR of the industrial plantation type will increase from 8% to 14%. This result shows us that the IRR of the industrial plantation type is very sensitive to the price of timber. There is no economic feasibility of A/R CDM project if the price of lCER is under USD 5. In addition, IRR of the A/R CDM project type is the same to IRR of industrial plantation type (8%) when the price of lCER is USD 10. Finally, the total investment expenditure on 12,000ha of the combination type is approximately 13 billion won while the industrial plantation type is 13.6 billion won. It takes 11 year to reach the turning point in terms of profitability of the combination type while the industrial plantation takes 13 year. Thus, the economic feasibility of the combination type is higher than the other types(industrial plantation type and A/R CDM project type).

Model of Water, Energy and Waste Management for Development of Eco-Innovation Park ; A Case Study of Center for Research of Science and Technology "PUSPIPTEK," South Tangerang City, Indonesia

  • Setiawati, Sri;Alikodra, Hadi;Pramudya, Bambang;Dharmawan, Arya Hadi
    • World Technopolis Review
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2014
  • Center for Research of Science and Technology ("PUSPIPTEK") has 460 hectares land area, still maintained as a green area with more than 30% green space. There are 47 centers for research and testing technology, technology-based industries, and as well as public supporting facilities in PUSPIPTEK area. Based on the concepts developed to make this area as an ecological region, PUSPIPTEK can be seen as a model of eco-innovation. The purpose of this research is to develop a model of water, energy and waste management with eco-innovation concept. As a new approach in addressing environmental degradation and maintaining the sustainability of ecosystem, studies related to eco-innovation policy that combines the management of water, energy and waste in the region has not been done. In order to achieve the objectives of the research, a series of techniques for collecting data on PUSPIPTEK existing conditions will be carried out, which includes utilities data (water, electricity, sewage) and master plan of this area. The savings over the implementation of the concept of eco-innovation in water, energy, and waste management were calculated and analyzed using quatitative methods. The amount of cost savings and feasibility were then calculated. Eco innovation in water management among other innovations include the provision of alternative sources of water, overflow of rain water and water environments utilization, and use of gravity to replace the pumping function. Eco-innovation in energy management innovations include the use of LED and solar cell for air conditioning. Eco-innovation in waste management includes methods of composting for organic waste management. The research results: (1) The savings that can be achieved with the implementation of eco innovation in the water management is Rp. 3,032,640 daily, or Rp.1,106,913,600 annually; (2) The savings derived from the implementation of eco innovation through replacement of central AC to AC LiBr Solar Powered will be saved Rp.1,933,992,990 annually and the use of LED lights in the Public street lighting PUSPIPTEK saved Rp.163,454,433 annually; (3) Application of eco innovation in waste management will be able to raise awareness of the environment by sorting organic, inorganic and plastic waste. Composting and plastic waste obtained from the sale revenue of Rp. 44,016,000 per year; (4) Overall, implementation of the eco-innovation system in PUSPIPTEK area can saves Rp. 3,248,377,023 per year, compared to the existing system; and (5)The savings are obtained with implementation of eco-innovation is considered as income. Analysis of the feasibility of the implementation of eco-innovation in water, energy, and waste management in PUSPIPTEK give NPV at a 15% discount factor in Rp. 3,895,228,761; 23.20% of IRR and 4.48 years of PBP. Thus the model of eco-innovation in the area PUSPIPTEK is feasible to implement.