• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multivariate Causality

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Multivariate Granger Causality between Regional R&D Investment and Regional Economic Variables (지역R&D투자와 지역경제지표 간 인과관계 분석)

  • Park, Chang-dae;Ahn, Seung-ku
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.189-200
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 국내 지역R&D투자와 지역경제지표 간의 관계를 파악하기 위한 것이다. 연구 방법은 패널VECM을 사용하여 1995~2014년 국내 17개 시 도별 정부 및 민간R&D투자, 고정자본과 고용, 지역내총생산의 상호 간 장 단기 인과관계를 도출하였다. 분석결과, 단기적으로 GRDP의 원인변수는 고정자본, 고용, 그리고 민간R&D투자로 나타났다. 고정자본의 원인변수는 고용, 민간R&D투자로 나타났으며, 고용의 원인변수로는 GRDP와 고정자본으로 나타났다. 장기적으로 고용, 고정자본, 정부R&D투자가 다른 변수들의 장기균형관계로부터 각각 인과관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 결과를 바탕으로 목적과 대상 그리고 시간의 흐름에 따라 지역R&D투자의 직 간접적 효과를 함께 고려할 수 있는 추가적인 분석이 요구된다.

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Effects of Foreign Capital Inflow on Efficiency of Bank Industry (외국자본유입이 우리나라 은행산업의 효율성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate and analyse the relationship between efficiency of bank industry and macroeconomic variables. We employ Johansen's multivariate cointegration methodology, since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. The empirical results show that our model is stationary as well as mean-reverting. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get additional information regarding the responses of the bank spread to the shocks economic variables such as long and short term interest rates differential, banking organ liquidity, business cycle index, and foreigner's net equity investment. The results indicate that while the bank spread respond positively to liquidity and equity investment shocks and then decay very quickly.

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Association Between Serum Bilirubin and Atrial Fibrillation: A Mendelian Randomization Study

  • Si-Woo Kim;Jung-Ho Yang;Sun-Seog Kweon;Young-Hoon Lee;Seong-Woo Choi;So-Yeon Ryu;Hae-Sung Nam;Hye-Yeon Kim;Min-Ho Shin
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.472-479
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    • 2023
  • Background and Objectives: The association between bilirubin and atrial fibrillation (AF) has been evaluated previously in observational studies but with contradictory results. This study evaluated the causal association between serum bilirubin level and AF using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. Methods: This cross-sectional study includes 8,977 participants from the Dong-gu Study. In the observational analysis, multivariate logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between bilirubin and prevalent AF. To evaluate the causal association between bilirubin and AF, MR analysis was conducted by using the UGT1A1 rs11891311 and rs4148323 polymorphisms as instrumental variables. Results: Elevated serum bilirubin levels were associated with an increased risk for AF in observational analysis (total bilirubin: odds ratio [OR], 1.31; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.15-1.48 per 1 standard deviation [SD]; direct bilirubin: OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.18-1.46 per 1 SD), whereas the genetically predicted serum bilirubin levels in MR analysis did not show this association (total bilirubin: OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.67-1.53 per 1 SD; direct bilirubin: OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.61-1.73 per 1 SD). Conclusions: Genetically predicted bilirubin levels were not associated with prevalent AF. Thus, the observational association between serum bilirubin levels and AF may be noncausal and affected by reverse causality or unmeasured confounding.

The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Absorptive Capabilities on the Economic Growth of the Lao People's Democratic Republic

  • NANTHARATH, Phouthakannha;KANG, Eungoo
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2019
  • The paper examines the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the economic growth of Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) between 1993 and 2015. The investigation is based on the influence of growth and economic absorptive capability determinants such as human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality. The methodological analysis uses a multivariate framework accounting capital stock, labor stock, FDI, human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality in regression of the Vector Autoregressive model. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Granger Causality test were applied as parts of the econometric time-series analysis approach. The empirical results demonstrate the positive effects of FDI and trade openness, and the negative effects of human capital and institutional quality on the economic growth of the Lao PDR over the 1993 to 2015 period. The findings confirm that trade openness complemented by a sufficient level of infrastructure, education, quality institutions, and transparency significantly influence economic growth and attract more FDI. Research results lend credence to the need for the Lao PDR's government to focus on improving its economic absorptive capability and economic competitiveness regionally and globally by improving wealth and resource management strategies, as failure to take this course of action could lead to the Dutch Disease effects.

Association between dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake and depression in postmenopausal women

  • Chae, Minjeong;Park, Kyong
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.468-478
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    • 2021
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to analyze the association between dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake and depression in postmenopausal women using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) VI. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The KNHANES is a cross-sectional nationwide health and nutrition survey. Dietary data, including omega-3 fatty acids, were assessed using the 24-h recall method. Depression was evaluated using a survey questionnaire. The association between dietary omega-3 fatty acids and depression was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Depression, according to the dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake, was expressed as the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). A total of 4,150 postmenopausal women were included in the analysis. RESULTS: In the fully-adjusted model, the group with the highest dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake significantly showed lower prevalence of depression than the group with the lowest intake (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.33-0.83); a significant linear trend was detected (P for trend = 0.04). According to the dose-response analysis using cubic restricted spline regression, this association was linear and monotonic (P for non-linearity = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the dietary omega-3 fatty acid intake in postmenopausal women was inversely proportional to depression in a dose-response manner. Large cohort studies are needed to verify the causality between omega-3 fatty acids and depression in Korean postmenopausal women.

Analysis of Longitudinal Relation of Children's Social Withdrawal and Peer Alienation (아동의 사회적 위축과 또래소외 간의 종단적 관계)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.391-399
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the causal relationship between social withdrawal and peer alienation among Korean children. The survey study participants were 2,110 children in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th grades. The 5-year longitudinal data (Korean Child and Youth Panel Survey; KCYPS) of 1st grade elementary school student cohort was used. Latent Growth Modeling was applied to analyze the causality over time of social withdrawal and peer isolation. The results revealed that the trajectories of children's social withdrawal decreased over time. Children's social withdrawal showed significant individual differences in terms of initial value and rates of change. The initial value and slope of children's social withdrawal had an effect on the peer alienation in the 3rd grade; however, there was no significant effect on the peer alienation in the 5th grade.

The relationship between socio-economic factors and self-rated health among older people (노인의 사회 경제적 수준과 주관적 건강수준과의 관계)

  • Lee Hoo Yeon;Kim Sung A;Lee Hye Jean;Jung Sang Hyuk
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.70-83
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between socio-economic factors and self-rated health among older people living in the community. In addition, the study tries to determine whether risk differentials by these socio-economic factors can be explained by other demographic factors, chronic diseases, and functional status. We surveyed to investigate the self-rated health of 397 study samples which had been selected by stratified randomized sampling, $2.7\%$ by each Dong (district) of S-city in Gyeonggi-do. Our study found that the socioeconomic factors such as income, occupation, and insurance were significantly associated with self-rated health. The level of social economic status was positively associated with the level of self-rated health. Two-staged multivariate analysis demonstrated that this relationship was still significant even after adjustment for demographic factors, chronic diseases, and functional status. In conclusion, there are wide socio-economic disparities in self-rated health of older people in this community. It is important that government should know not only health status but also the health-associated factors in order to prepare for the aged society and improve the health status of the elderly. Further researches should uncover causality and mechanism by which SES affects changes in functional health among the elderly.

Association Between Flexible Work Arrangement and Sleep Problems Among Paid Workers: Using 6th Korean Working Conditions Survey

  • Eunseun Han;Yongho Lee;Sanghyuk Lee;Shinhyeong Kim;Seunghon Ham;Wanhyung Lee;Won-Jun Choi;Seong-Kyu Kang
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2024
  • Background: As social distancing persists and interest in work-life balance grows, more companies are adopting flexible work policies. While there have been studies on sleep disorders associated with different types of work, such as shift work, research exploring the relationship between flexible work schedules and sleep disorders is still limited, particularly among Korean workers. Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of the 6th Korean Working Conditions Survey, focusing on 31,243 paid workers out of a total of 50,538 participants. We defined flexible workers as those who set their own working hours. Sleep disorders were divided into three categories: 'difficulty falling asleep,' 'frequent waking during sleep,' and 'waking up feeling exhausted and fatigued.' Using scores derived from three specific symptoms, the Minimal Insomnia Symptoms Scale (MISS) was calculated to assess the prevalence of insomnia. We used chi-square tests to analyze demographic and job-related differences. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to identify any relationship between flexible work schedules and sleep disorders. Results: Significant differences were found between flexible and non-flexible workers regarding age, income level, education level, and job type. Flexible workers reported sleep-related symptoms significantly more often. The odds ratio for insomnia was 1.40 (95% CI 1.21-1.61). For males, the odds ratio was 1.68 (1.36-2.08). Conclusion: This study establishes a correlation between flexible work schedules and sleep disorders among Korean salaried workers. Potential causes could include changes in circadian rhythm, increased work demands, and extended working hours. To precisely determine causality and associated diseases, further research is required.

A Study on the Effect of Delinquency Rate of Real Estate PF on Macroeconomic Variables (거시경제변수에 따른 부동산PF 연체율에 관한 연구)

  • Roh, Chi-Young;Kim, Hyung-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.416-427
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    • 2018
  • As the loan size of real estate PF is huge, its market ripple effect gets bigger when overdue occurs. Accordingly, the management of the delinquency rate and macroeconomic analysis are required. As the preceding research mainly proceeded with microeconomic analysis through the real estate PF data of individual banks to evaluate importance of list or analyzed core factors for delinquency, it lacked research on comprehensive real estate PF size. In order to overcome the limitations of such data, this research studied real estate PF delinquency rate of the entire market and effect relationship by the size. The research utilized the size of real estate PF loans, money supply, interest rate, consumer price index(CPI), and GDP data. Also, it applied the first model of VECM as linear relationship between at least two or more variables, following the result of co-integration test. As a result of Granger-causality test, the real estate PF loans delinquency rate is influenced by their loan size, and as a result of impulse response analysis, the interest rate is shown to be affecting delinquency rate the most. Interest rate could risesomeday and aggravate the delinquency rate of real estate PF. Also, risk exposure could be serious as the loan size increases.Therefore, the management of real estate PF delinquency rate requires continuous monitoring, tracking and observing issued loans from a macro point of view. The plans to prevent delinquency will be necessary.