• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multiple scenarios

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Evaluation of conceptual rainfall-runoff models for different flow regimes and development of ensemble model (개념적 강우유출 모형의 유량구간별 적합성 평가 및 앙상블 모델 구축)

  • Yu, Jae-Ung;Park, Moon-Hyung;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.105-119
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    • 2021
  • An increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and droughts has been recently observed due to an increase in climate variability. Especially, land-use change associated with industrial structure and urbanization has led to an imbalance between water supply and demand, acting as a constraint in water resource management. Accurate rainfall-runoff analysis plays a critical role in evaluating water availability in the water budget analysis. This study aimed to explore various continuous rainfall-runoff models over the Soyanggang dam watershed. Moreover, the ensemble modeling framework combining multiple models was introduced to present scenarios on streamflow considering uncertainties. In the ensemble modeling framework, rainfall-runoff models with fewer parameters are generally preferred for effective regionalization. In this study, more than 40 continuous rainfall-runoff models were applied to the Soyanggang dam watershed, and nine rainfall-runoff models were primarily selected using different goodness-of-fit measures. This study confirmed that the ensemble model showed better performance than the individual model over different flow regimes.

Assessing the Impacts of EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms and Its Policy Implications: An Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis (환경산업연관분석을 활용한 탄소국경조정 메커니즘 도입에 따른 국내 산업계 영향 분석과 대응전략)

  • Yeo, Yeongjun;Cho, Hae-in;Jeong, Hoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.419-449
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    • 2022
  • This paper aims to quantify the potential economic burdens of EU's carbon border adjustment mechanisms faced by Korean domestic industries. In addition, this study tries to compare and analyzes changes in the burden of each industry resulted from the implementation of the domestic low-carbon policy. Based on the quantitative findings, we intend to suggest policy implications for establishing mid- to long-term strategies in response to climate change risks. Based on the environmentally extended input-output analysis, the total economic burdens of the domestic industries due to the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanisms are estimated to be approximately KRW 8,245.6 billion in 2030. Looking at the impacts by industry, it is found that major industries such as petrochemicals, petroleum refining, transportation equipment, steel, automobiles, and electric/electronic equipment industries are expected to account for 84.3% of the total potential burdens. In addition, in multiple policy scenarios assuming technological developments and energy transition following the implementation of domestic low-carbon policies, the total economic burden of carbon border adjustment is expected to decrease by about 11.7% to 15.0%. The main result of this study suggests that we should not view EU EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism as a trade regulation, but to use it as a momentum for more effective implementation of the low-carbon and energy transition strategies in the global carbon neural era.

A Study on the Improvement Direction of Selection Evaluation Indicators for the Land Transport Technology Commercialization Support Project: Focusing on the Follow-up Project Linkage Plan (국토교통기술사업화지원사업 선정평가 지표 개선방안 연구: 후속사업 연계 방안을 중심으로)

  • Hyung-Wook Shim;Seok-Ki Cha;Seung-Hee Back
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2022
  • The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has also been promoting the commercialization of land transport technology to commercialize the technologies owned by small and medium-sized venture companies, and to support the transfer and commercialization of public technologies. At this point, in order to improve the investment effect of subsequent new projects and to select excellent research institutes, it is necessary to establish a valid evaluation index system suitable for the purpose of the project. The evaluation index system for subsequent new projects should be linked to the project objectives and goals of the preceding project, and should be selected in consideration of existing evaluation indicators to prevent interruption of research results. Therefore, this thesis sets the evaluation index system into multiple scenarios through hierarchical cluster analysis using the evaluation result data for each evaluation committee for small and medium venture companies participating in the land transportation technology commercialization support project, and then analyzes the structural equation model. As a result of scenario analysis, considering the measurement effect of each path representing the causal relationship between evaluation indicators and the effect of each evaluation index on evaluation items, the scenario with the highest impact on the evaluation result was selected as an improvement plan.

Derivation of On-site Major Exposure Factor using NDD Analysis when Landfilling NORM Waste (NORM 폐기물 매립 시 NDD 분석을 활용한 부지 내 주요 피폭인자 도출)

  • Ji Hyeon Lim;Shin Dong Lee;Geon Woo Son;Kwang Pyo Kim
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.183-193
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    • 2024
  • As part of the social response to the radon bed incident in 2018, the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission took measures to collect and dispose of all radon beds. The Waste Management Act provides landfill disposal as one of the disposal methods for natural radioactive product waste, which is one of the NORM wastes. When NORM wastes are landfilled, workers and the public at the landfill site are exposed to radiation through various pathways, such as leaching of radionuclides through soil and groundwater, and multiple exposure factors are involved simultaneously. In order to improve the reliability of radiological impact assessment, the values of main exposure factors should be selected more accurately. Therefore, before developing the main exposure factors for site characteristics, it is necessary to prioritize main exposure factors reflecting domestic characteristics of NORM waste landfills. Therefore, in this study, the main exposure factors for NORM waste landfill were derived using NDD analysis. To derive the main exposure factors, the analysis tool was first selected as RESRAD-ONSITE computer code, and the exposure scenarios were mainly selected as a resident farmer and suburban resident scenario, recreation scenario, and industrial worker scenario. Then, the priority 1 and 2 factors were selected for sensitivity analysis, and a Korean standard model was established to reflect Korean characteristics. Finally, the sensitivity analysis was conducted through NDD, and the main exposure factors were derived based on this. In the resident farmer scenario, the contaminated zone distribution coefficients of 226Ra, 210Pb, 232Th, 228Ra, 234U, and 238U, as well as precipitation and evapotranspiration factors, were derived as the main exposure factors. In the suburban resident scenario, the contaminated zone distribution coefficients of 226Ra, 210Pb, 232Th, 228Ra, 234U, and 238U, as well as precipitation and evapotranspiration coefficients, were derived as the main exposure factors. In the recreation scenario, the contaminated zone distribution coefficient of 232Th was derived as the main exposure factor. For the industrial worker scenario, the erosion rate was derived as the main exposure factor. The main exposure factors for each scenario were analyzed to be different depending on the scenario characteristics. The results of this study can be utilized as a basis for radiological environmental impact assessment of NORM waste landfill in Korea.

Experimental Analysis of Nodal Head-outflow Relationship Using a Model Water Supply Network for Pressure Driven Analysis of Water Distribution System (상수관망 압력기반 수리해석을 위한 모의 실험시설 기반 절점의 압력-유량 관계 분석)

  • Chang, Dongeil;Kang, Kihoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.421-428
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    • 2014
  • For the analysis of water supply network, demand-driven and pressure-driven analysis methods have been proposed. Of the two methods, demand-driven analysis (DDA) can only be used in a normal operation condition to evaluate hydraulic status of a pipe network. Under abnormal conditions, i.e., unexpected pipe destruction, or abnormal low pressure conditions, pressure-driven analysis (PDA) method should be used to estimate the suppliable flowrate at each node in a network. In order to carry out the pressure-driven analysis, head-outflow relationship (HOR), which estimates flowrate at a certain pressure at each node, should be first determined. Most previous studies empirically suggested that each node possesses its own characteristic head-outflow relationship, which, therefore, requires verification by using actual field data for proper application in PDA modeling. In this study, a model pipe network was constructed, and various operation scenarios of normal and abnormal conditions, which cannot be realized in real pipe networks, were established. Using the model network, data on pressure and flowrate at each node were obtained at each operation condition. Using the data obtained, previously proposed HOR equations were evaluated. In addition, head-outflow relationship at each node was analyzed especially under multiple pipe destruction events. By analyzing the experimental data obtained from the model network, it was found that flowrate reduction corresponding to a certain pressure drop (by pipe destruction at one or multiple points on the network) followed intrinsic head-outflow relationship of each node. By comparing the experimentally obtained head-outflow relationship with various HOR equations proposed by previous studies, the one proposed by Wagner et al. showed the best agreement with the exponential parameter, m of 3.0.

Assessing hydrologic impact of climate change in Jeju Island using multiple GCMs and watershed modeling (다중 GCM과 유역모델링을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 제주도의 수문학적 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Chul Gyum;Cho, Jaepil;Kim, Nam Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2018
  • The climate change impacts on hydrological components and water balance in Jeju Island were evaluated using multiple climate models and watershed model, SWAT-K. To take into account the uncertainty of the future forecast data according to climate models, climate data of 9 GCMs were utilized as weather data of SWAT-K for future period (2010-2099). Using the modeling results of the past (1992-2013) and the future period, the hydrological changes of each year were analyzed and the precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge were increasing. Compared with the past, the change in the runoff was the largest (up to 50% increase) and the evapotranspiration was relatively small (up to 11% increase). Monthly results show that the amount of evapotranspiration and the amount of recharge are greatly increased as the amount of precipitation increases in August and September, while the amount of evapotranspiration decreases in the same period. January and December showed the opposite tendency. As a result of analyzing future water balance changes, the ratio of runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge to rainfall did not change much, but compared to the past, the runoff rate increased up to 4.3% in the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the evapotranspiration rate decreased by up to 3.5%. Based on the results of other researchers and this study, it is expected that rainfall and runoff will increase gradually in the future under the assumption of present climate change scenarios. Especially summer precipitation and runoff are expected to increase. As a result, the amount of groundwater recharge in Jeju Island will increase.

End to End Model and Delay Performance for V2X in 5G (5G에서 V2X를 위한 End to End 모델 및 지연 성능 평가)

  • Bae, Kyoung Yul;Lee, Hong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2016
  • The advent of 5G mobile communications, which is expected in 2020, will provide many services such as Internet of Things (IoT) and vehicle-to-infra/vehicle/nomadic (V2X) communication. There are many requirements to realizing these services: reduced latency, high data rate and reliability, and real-time service. In particular, a high level of reliability and delay sensitivity with an increased data rate are very important for M2M, IoT, and Factory 4.0. Around the world, 5G standardization organizations have considered these services and grouped them to finally derive the technical requirements and service scenarios. The first scenario is broadcast services that use a high data rate for multiple cases of sporting events or emergencies. The second scenario is as support for e-Health, car reliability, etc.; the third scenario is related to VR games with delay sensitivity and real-time techniques. Recently, these groups have been forming agreements on the requirements for such scenarios and the target level. Various techniques are being studied to satisfy such requirements and are being discussed in the context of software-defined networking (SDN) as the next-generation network architecture. SDN is being used to standardize ONF and basically refers to a structure that separates signals for the control plane from the packets for the data plane. One of the best examples for low latency and high reliability is an intelligent traffic system (ITS) using V2X. Because a car passes a small cell of the 5G network very rapidly, the messages to be delivered in the event of an emergency have to be transported in a very short time. This is a typical example requiring high delay sensitivity. 5G has to support a high reliability and delay sensitivity requirements for V2X in the field of traffic control. For these reasons, V2X is a major application of critical delay. V2X (vehicle-to-infra/vehicle/nomadic) represents all types of communication methods applicable to road and vehicles. It refers to a connected or networked vehicle. V2X can be divided into three kinds of communications. First is the communication between a vehicle and infrastructure (vehicle-to-infrastructure; V2I). Second is the communication between a vehicle and another vehicle (vehicle-to-vehicle; V2V). Third is the communication between a vehicle and mobile equipment (vehicle-to-nomadic devices; V2N). This will be added in the future in various fields. Because the SDN structure is under consideration as the next-generation network architecture, the SDN architecture is significant. However, the centralized architecture of SDN can be considered as an unfavorable structure for delay-sensitive services because a centralized architecture is needed to communicate with many nodes and provide processing power. Therefore, in the case of emergency V2X communications, delay-related control functions require a tree supporting structure. For such a scenario, the architecture of the network processing the vehicle information is a major variable affecting delay. Because it is difficult to meet the desired level of delay sensitivity with a typical fully centralized SDN structure, research on the optimal size of an SDN for processing information is needed. This study examined the SDN architecture considering the V2X emergency delay requirements of a 5G network in the worst-case scenario and performed a system-level simulation on the speed of the car, radius, and cell tier to derive a range of cells for information transfer in SDN network. In the simulation, because 5G provides a sufficiently high data rate, the information for neighboring vehicle support to the car was assumed to be without errors. Furthermore, the 5G small cell was assumed to have a cell radius of 50-100 m, and the maximum speed of the vehicle was considered to be 30-200 km/h in order to examine the network architecture to minimize the delay.

Monitoring of Pesticide Residues Concerned in Stream Water (전국 하천수 중 잔류우려 농약 실태조사)

  • Hwang, In-Seong;Oh, Yee-Jin;Kwon, Hye-Young;Ro, Jin-Ho;Kim, Dan-Bi;Moon, Byeong-Chul;Oh, Min-Seok;Noh, Hyun-Ho;Park, Sang-Won;Choi, Geun-Hyoung;Ryu, Song-Hee;Kim, Byung-Seok;Oh, Kyeong-Seok;Lim, Chi-Hwan;Lee, Hyo-Sub
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2019
  • BACKGROUND: This study was carried out to investigate pesticide residues from fifty streams in Korea. Water samples were collected at two times. Thee first sampling was performed from april to may, which was the season for start of pesticide application and the second sampling event was from august to september, which was a period for spraying pesticides multiple times. METHODS AND RESULTS: The 136 pesticide residues were analyzed by LC-MS/MS and GC/ECD. As a result, eleven of the pesticide residues were detected at the first sampling. Twenty eight of the pesticide residues were detected at the second sampling. Seven pesticides were frequently detected from more than 10 water samples. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) was carried out by using residual and toxicological data. Four scenarios were applied for the ERA. Scenario 1 and 2 were performed using LC50 values and mean and maximum concentrations. Scenarios 3 and 4 were conducted by NOEC values and mean and maximum concentrations. CONCLUSION: Frequently detected pesticide residues tended to coincide with the period of preventing pathogen and pest at paddy rice. As a result of ERA, five pesticides (butachlor, carbendazim, carbofuran, chlorantranilprole, and oxadiazon) were assessed to be risks at scenario 4. However, only oxadiazon was assessed to be a risk at scenario 3 for the first sampling. Oxadiazon was not assessed to be a risk at the second sampling. It seems to be temporary phenomenon at the first sampling, because usage of herbicides such as oxadiazon increased from April to march for preventing weeds at paddy fields. However, this study suggested that five pesticides which were assessed to be risks need to be monitored continuously for the residues.

Operational Ship Monitoring Based on Multi-platforms (Satellite, UAV, HF Radar, AIS) (다중 플랫폼(위성, 무인기, AIS, HF 레이더)에 기반한 시나리오별 선박탐지 모니터링)

  • Kim, Sang-Wan;Kim, Donghan;Lee, Yoon-Kyung;Lee, Impyeong;Lee, Sangho;Kim, Junghoon;Kim, Keunyong;Ryu, Joo-Hyung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.2_2
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    • pp.379-399
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    • 2020
  • The detection of illegal ship is one of the key factors in building a marine surveillance system. Effective marine surveillance requires the means for continuous monitoring over a wide area. In this study, the possibility of ship detection monitoring based on satellite SAR, HF radar, UAV and AIS integration was investigated. Considering the characteristics of time and spatial resolution for each platform, the ship monitoring scenario consisted of a regular surveillance system using HFR data and AIS data, and an event monitoring system using satellites and UAVs. The regular surveillance system still has limitations in detecting a small ship and accuracy due to the low spatial resolution of HF radar data. However, the event monitoring system using satellite SAR data effectively detects illegal ships using AIS data, and the ship speed and heading direction estimated from SAR images or ship tracking information using HF radar data can be used as the main information for the transition to UAV monitoring. For the validation of monitoring scenario, a comprehensive field experiment was conducted from June 25 to June 26, 2019, at the west side of Hongwon Port in Seocheon. KOMPSAT-5 SAR images, UAV data, HF radar data and AIS data were successfully collected and analyzed by applying each developed algorithm. The developed system will be the basis for the regular and event ship monitoring scenarios as well as the visualization of data and analysis results collected from multiple platforms.

Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change (기후변화에 의한 눈잣나무의 서식지 분포 예측)

  • Park, Hyun-Chul;Lee, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Gwan-Gyu
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.379-392
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    • 2014
  • This study was performed to predict the future climate envelope of Pinus pumila, a subalpine plant and a Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species (CBIS) of Korea. P. pumila is distributed at Mt. seorak in South Korea. Suitable habitat were predicted under two alternative RCPscenarios (IPCC AR5). The SDM used for future prediction was a Maxent model, and the total number of environmental variables for Maxent was 8. It was found that the distribution range of P. pumila in the South Korean was $38^{\circ}7^{\prime}8^{{\prime}{\prime}}N{\sim}38^{\circ}7^{\prime}14^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$ and $128^{\circ}28^{\prime}2^{{\prime}{\prime}}E{\sim}128^{\circ}27^{\prime}38^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$ and 1,586m~1,688m in altitude. The variables that contribute the most to define the climate envelope are altitude. Climate envelope simulation accuracy was evaluated using the ROC's AUC. The P. pumila model's 5-cv AUC was found to be 0.99966. which showed that model accuracy was very high. Under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate envelope for P. pumila is predicted to decrease in South Korea. According to the results of the maxent model has been applied in the current climate, suitable habitat is $790.78km^2$. The suitable habitats, are distributed in the region of over 1,400m. Further, in comparison with the suitable habitat of applying RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 suitable habitat current, reduction of area RCP8.5 was greater than RCP4.5. Thus, climate change will affect the distribution of P. pumila. Therefore, governmental measures to conserve this species will be necessary. Additionally, for CBIS vulnerability analysis and studies using sampling techniques to monitor areas based on the outcomes of this study, future study designs should incorporate the use of climatic predictions derived from multiple GCMs, especially GCMs that were not the one used in this study. Furthermore, if environmental variables directly relevant to CBIS distribution other than climate variables, such as the Bioclim parameters, are ever identified, more accurate prediction than in this study will be possible.