• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multi-level Learning

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Predicting Probability of Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Network and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (인공신경망과 중규모기상수치예보를 이용한 강수확률예측)

  • Kang, Boosik;Lee, Bongki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5B
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    • pp.485-493
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    • 2008
  • The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was suggested for predicting probability of precipitation (PoP) using RDAPS NWP model, observation at AWS and upper-air sounding station. The prediction work was implemented for flood season and the data period is the July, August of 2001 and June of 2002. Neural network input variables (predictors) were composed of geopotential height 500/750/1000 hPa, atmospheric thickness 500-1000 hPa, X & Y-component of wind at 500 hPa, X & Y-component of wind at 750 hPa, wind speed at surface, temperature at 500/750 hPa/surface, mean sea level pressure, 3-hr accumulated precipitation, occurrence of observed precipitation, precipitation accumulated in 6 & 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run, precipitation occurrence in 6 & 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run, relative humidity measured 0 & 12 hrs before RDAPS run, precipitable water measured 0 & 12 hrs before RDAPS run, precipitable water difference in 12 hrs previous to RDAPS run. The suggested ANN has a 3-layer perceptron (multi layer perceptron; MLP) and back-propagation learning algorithm. The result shows that there were 6.8% increase in Hit rate (H), especially 99.2% and 148.1% increase in Threat Score (TS) and Probability of Detection (POD). It illustrates that the suggested ANN model can be a useful tool for predicting rainfall event prediction. The Kuipers Skill Score (KSS) was increased 92.8%, which the ANN model improves the rainfall occurrence prediction over RDAPS.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Product Recommender Systems using Multi-Model Ensemble Techniques (다중모형조합기법을 이용한 상품추천시스템)

  • Lee, Yeonjeong;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2013
  • Recent explosive increase of electronic commerce provides many advantageous purchase opportunities to customers. In this situation, customers who do not have enough knowledge about their purchases, may accept product recommendations. Product recommender systems automatically reflect user's preference and provide recommendation list to the users. Thus, product recommender system in online shopping store has been known as one of the most popular tools for one-to-one marketing. However, recommender systems which do not properly reflect user's preference cause user's disappointment and waste of time. In this study, we propose a novel recommender system which uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user's preference. The research data is collected from the real-world online shopping store, which deals products from famous art galleries and museums in Korea. The data initially contain 5759 transaction data, but finally remain 3167 transaction data after deletion of null data. In this study, we transform the categorical variables into dummy variables and exclude outlier data. The proposed model consists of two steps. The first step predicts customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in the online shopping store. In this step, we first use logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. We perform above data mining techniques using SAS E-Miner software. In this study, we partition datasets into two sets as modeling and validation sets for the logistic regression and decision trees. We also partition datasets into three sets as training, test, and validation sets for the artificial neural network model. The validation dataset is equal for the all experiments. Then we composite the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. Bagging is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Aggregation" and it composite outputs from several machine learning techniques for raising the performance and stability of prediction or classification. This technique is special form of the averaging method. Bumping is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Umbrella of Model Parameter," and it only considers the model which has the lowest error value. The results show that bumping outperforms bagging and the other predictors except for "Poster" product group. For the "Poster" product group, artificial neural network model performs better than the other models. In the second step, we use the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. We can extract thirty one association rules according to values of Lift, Support, and Confidence measure. We set the minimum transaction frequency to support associations as 5%, maximum number of items in an association as 4, and minimum confidence for rule generation as 10%. This study also excludes the extracted association rules below 1 of lift value. We finally get fifteen association rules by excluding duplicate rules. Among the fifteen association rules, eleven rules contain association between products in "Office Supplies" product group, one rules include the association between "Office Supplies" and "Fashion" product groups, and other three rules contain association between "Office Supplies" and "Home Decoration" product groups. Finally, the proposed product recommender systems provides list of recommendations to the proper customers. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. For this end, we construct the prototype system by using the ASP, Java Script and Microsoft Access. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The participants for the survey are 173 persons who use MSN Messenger, Daum Caf$\acute{e}$, and P2P services. We evaluate the user satisfaction using five-scale Likert measure. This study also performs "Paired Sample T-test" for the results of the survey. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the random selection model with 1% statistical significance level. It means that the users satisfied the recommended product list significantly. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

The Secondary School Education of Geography and the System of Teacher Training in Belgium - Focused on the Case of Francophone Community - (벨지움의 중등학교 지리교육 내용과 교사양성제도 - 프랑코폰 공동체를 사례로 -)

  • Kwak, Chul-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2000
  • This study aims to make a research on the secondary school education of geography and the system of teacher training in Belgium, focused on the case of Francophone Community. What has been made clear by this research can be summed up as follows. The first two years of the secondary school offer two hours of 'environment education', per week, which can be categorized into the learning of living geography, in that at this stage students learn how to observe the geographic phenomena in their daily life and pigeonhole them. The two years of the second stage of the secondary school offer one hour of 'world geography' which actually is focused on the district of Europe and Russia. The two years of the third stage of the secondary school offer an advanced course of geography which aims to teach systematically the physical geography and the human geography. A remarkable change in geographic education in Belgium is that in the wake of the Revision Act of the secondary school education, textbooks were replaced by other teaching manuals adapted to the regional condition by the teachers. This may result in a wide gap of achievements in geography according to the conditions of educational establishments. Another notable change is that the stress of geographic education tends to be placed on the ability of acquiring practical geographic knowledge rather than the geographic information itself. And it is also another marked tendency that most learning activities in geography class are conducted on the basis of student-centered and the method of investigation. Teachers of the lower secondary schools in Belgium are trained in the School of Education as multi-major teachers, such as a teacher for biology-chemistry-geography or a teacher for history-sociology-geography. Teachers of the higher secondary school education are trained in the Department of Teacher Education in universities as solo-major teachers in that they are required to know more deeply to teach an advanced course of geography in the higher secondary schools. To improve the teacher education many folds of policies are adopted. One is that many in-service teachers are officially put into services of guiding and teaching teacher training. Another is that faculty members in charge of teacher training course are trying to level up the qualifications of teachers by rigorous disciplining.

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International Comparison of Cognitive Attributes using Analysis on Science Results at TIMSS 2011 Based on the Cognitive Diagnostic Theory (인지진단이론에 근거한 TIMSS 2011의 과학 결과 분석을 통한 인지 속성의 국제비교)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Kim, Soojin;Dong, Hyokwan
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2015
  • This research purports to find out the characteristics of Korean students cognitive attributes and compare it with that of high-achieving countries who took TIMSS 2011 based on the Cognitive Diagnostic Theory. Based on TIMSS 2011 Science framework, nine cognitive attributes were extracted and the researcher analyzed that 216 of the TIMSS 2011 science items require these attributes. This analysis was conducted to come up with a Q-matrix. After producing the Q-matrix, multi-level IRT was used to figure out each countries' characteristics for each of the cognitive attribute. According to the study results, four attributes, such as 'Use Models,' 'Interpret Information,' 'Draw Conclusions,' and 'Evaluate and justify' were easier attributes for Korean middle school students. However, the other five attributes such as 'Recall/Recognize', 'Explain', 'Classify', 'Integrate', 'Hypothesize and Design' were considered as harder attributes compared to other countries. Korean students also considered 'Interpret Information' as the easiest attributes, and 'Explain' as the hardest attributes of all. For Korean students, those attributes considered to be easy were the easiest and hard attributes as the hardest compared to other countries, showing very extreme cases. Therefore, to give students more meaningful learning experience, it is better to use all the attributes altogether rather than use specific attributes while constructing Science curriculum or textbooks.

Exploration into Better College Cultural Contents Education for Manifestation of Creativity (대학에서의 창의성 발현을 위한 문화콘텐츠 교육 개선방안 탐색)

  • Lee, Byung-Min
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.481-496
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to make a basic research on college cultural contents education in an effort to step up the manifestation of the creativity of cultural contents experts in line with the development of the fast-changing era of creative economy. It's basically meant to analyze the characteristics of cultural contents education in relation to creative idea to seek practical ways of improving that education. What problems there were with cultural contents education and how that education was actually provided were analyzed to suggest some of the right directions for client-centered cultural contents education. Earlier studies were analyzed, and the results of a survey that was conducted on students whose major was linked to cultural contents were analyzed as well. As a result, current cultural contents education was considered not to be satisfactory due to existing teaching methods, learning process and curriculums that were devoid of creativity. To rectify the situation, interdisciplinary attempts should be made such as multi-major, interdisciplinary programs or convergence education, and plenty of experiments, sufficient practice and an increase in the number of faculty members are all required. In terms of education, existing curriculums and courses should urgently be revamped to strengthen field placement and creative discussions. As for educational methods, the lecture method should be avoided, and specialized education should be offered instead, which should strike a balance between discussion, team play and project education. It is expected to produce good results if there are appropriate connection among different major fields of study and the harmonious implementation of diverse internship, convergence and field placement programs.

A Study of a Rate Limit Method for QoS Guarantees in Ethernet (이더넷에서의 QoS 보장을 위한 대역제한에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Won-Young;Park, Jong-Su;Kim, Pan-Ki;Lee, Jung-Hee;Lee, Yong-Surk
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.32 no.2B
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    • pp.100-107
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    • 2007
  • Recently, a study of BcN(Broadband convergence Network) is progressing continuously, and it is important to improve the quality of the service according to subscribers because a scale of network is about to be larger. It is more important to manage QoS(Quality of Service) of all subscribers in layer 2 than layer 3 network since managing it in layer 3 network cost both additional processes and large hardware. Moreover, QoS based on Best-Effort service has been developed because tots of subscribers should use limited resource in BcN. However, they want to be supplied with different service even though they pay more charge. Therefore, it is essential to assign the different bandwidth to subscribers depending on their level of charge. The method of current Rate Limiter limits the bandwidth of each port that does not offer fair service to subscribers. The Rate Limiter proposed in this paper limits bandwidth according to each subscriber. Therefore, subscribers can get fair service regardless of switch structure. This new Rate Limiter controls the bandwidth of subscribers according to the information of learning subscriber and manages maximum performance of Ethernet switch and QoS.

A Diagnostic Study on High School Students' Health and Quality of Life - Based on the PRECEDE model - (고등학생의 건강 및 삶의 질에 대한 진단적 연구 - PRECEDE 모형을 근간으로 -)

  • Yoo Jae-Soon;Hong Yeo-Shin
    • The Journal of Korean Academic Society of Nursing Education
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    • v.3
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    • pp.78-98
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    • 1997
  • Health education, as the most fundamental concept for national health promotion, alms for developing the self-care ability of the general public. High school days are regarded as the period when most important physical, mental and social developments occur, and most health-related behaviors are formed. School health education is one of the major learning resources influencing health potential in the home and community as well as for the individual student. High school health education in Korea has a fundamental systemic flaw in that health-related subjects are divided and taught under various subjects areas at school. In order to achieve the goal of school health education, it is essential to make a systematic assessment of the learner's concerns connected with his health and life, and the factors affecting them. So far, most of the research projects that had been carried out for improving high school health education were limited in their concerns to a particular aspect of health. Even though some had been done in view of comprehensive school health education, they failed to Include a health assessment of the learner. Therefore, in this study the high school students' concerns related to health and life were investigated in the first place on the basis of the PRECEDE model, developed by Green and others for the purpose of a comprehensive diagnostic research on high school health education. This study was done in two steps : one was the basic study for developing research instrument and the other was the main one. The former was conducted at five high schools in Seoul and Cheongju for 2 months-beginning in March, 1996. The students were asked to respond to questions related to their health and lives in unstructured open-ended question forms. On the basis of analysis of the basic study, the diagnostic instruments for the quality of life, health problems, health behavior and educational factors were constructed to be used for the collection of data for main study. An expert panel and the pilot study were used to improve content validity and reliability of the instruments. The reliability of the instruments was measured at between .7697 and .9611 by the Cronbach $\alpha$. The data for this study were collected from the sample consisted of the junior and senior classes of twenty general and vocational high schools in Seoul and Cheongju for two months period beginning in July, 1996. In analyzing the data, both t-test and $X^2$-test were done by using SAS-$PC^+$ Program to compare data between the sexes of the high school students and the types of high school. A canonical correlation analysis was carried out to determine the relationships among the diagnostic variables, and a multivariate multiple regression analysis was conducted by using LISREL 8.03 to ascertain the influences of variables on the high school students' health and quality of life. The results were as follows : 1) The findings of the hypothesis tests (1) The canonical correlation between the educational diagnosis variables and behavioral, epidemiological, social diagnosis variables was .7221, which was significant at the level of p<.001. (2) The canonical correlation between the educational diagnosis variables and the behavior variables was .6851, which also was significant (p<.001). (3) The canonical correlation between the behavioral diagnosis variables and the epidemiological variables was 4295, which was significant (p<.001). (4) The canonical correlation between the epidemiological diagnosis variables and the social variables was .6005, which was also significant (p<.001). Therefore, the relationship between each diagnosis variable suggested by the PRECEDE model had been experimentally proven to be valid, supporting the conceptual framework of the study as appropriate for assessing the multi-dimensional factors affecting high school students' health and quality of life. Health behavior self-efficacy, the level of parents' interest and knowledge of health, and the level of the perception of school health education, all of which are the educational diagnostic variables, are the most influential variables in students' health and quality of life. In particular, health behavior self-efficacy, a causative factor, was one of the main influential variables in their health and quality of life. Other diagnostic variables suggested in the steps of the PRECEDE model were found to have reciprocal relations rather than a unidirectional causative relationship. The significance of this research is that it has diagnosed the needs of high school health education by the learner-centered assessment of variety of factors related to the health and the life of the students. This research findings suggest an integrated system of school health education to be contrived to enhance the effectiveness of the education by strengthening the influential factors such as self-efficacy to improve the health and quality of the lives of high school students.

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A Study on Analyzing Sentiments on Movie Reviews by Multi-Level Sentiment Classifier (영화 리뷰 감성분석을 위한 텍스트 마이닝 기반 감성 분류기 구축)

  • Kim, Yuyoung;Song, Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.71-89
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    • 2016
  • Sentiment analysis is used for identifying emotions or sentiments embedded in the user generated data such as customer reviews from blogs, social network services, and so on. Various research fields such as computer science and business management can take advantage of this feature to analyze customer-generated opinions. In previous studies, the star rating of a review is regarded as the same as sentiment embedded in the text. However, it does not always correspond to the sentiment polarity. Due to this supposition, previous studies have some limitations in their accuracy. To solve this issue, the present study uses a supervised sentiment classification model to measure a more accurate sentiment polarity. This study aims to propose an advanced sentiment classifier and to discover the correlation between movie reviews and box-office success. The advanced sentiment classifier is based on two supervised machine learning techniques, the Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Feedforward Neural Network (FNN). The sentiment scores of the movie reviews are measured by the sentiment classifier and are analyzed by statistical correlations between movie reviews and box-office success. Movie reviews are collected along with a star-rate. The dataset used in this study consists of 1,258,538 reviews from 175 films gathered from Naver Movie website (movie.naver.com). The results show that the proposed sentiment classifier outperforms Naive Bayes (NB) classifier as its accuracy is about 6% higher than NB. Furthermore, the results indicate that there are positive correlations between the star-rate and the number of audiences, which can be regarded as the box-office success of a movie. The study also shows that there is the mild, positive correlation between the sentiment scores estimated by the classifier and the number of audiences. To verify the applicability of the sentiment scores, an independent sample t-test was conducted. For this, the movies were divided into two groups using the average of sentiment scores. The two groups are significantly different in terms of the star-rated scores.