• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multi-Step Prediction

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Polyethylene flow prediction with a differential multi-mode Pom-Pom model

  • Rutgers, R.P.G.;Clemeur, N.;Debbaut, B.
    • Korea-Australia Rheology Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2002
  • We report the first steps of a collaborative project between the University of Queensland, Polyflow, Michelin, SK Chemicals, and RMIT University, on simulation, validation and application of a recently introduced constitutive model designed to describe branched polymers. Whereas much progress has been made on predicting the complex flow behaviour of many - in particular linear - polymers, it sometimes appears difficult to predict simultaneously shear thinning and extensional strain hardening behaviour using traditional constitutive models. Recently a new viscoelastic model based on molecular topology, was proposed by McLeish and carson (1998). We explore the predictive power of a differential multi-mode version of the porn-pom model for the flow behaviour of two commercial polymer melts: a (long-chain branched) low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and a (linear) high-density polyethylene (HDPE). The model responses are compared to elongational recovery experiments published by Langouche and Debbaut (19c99), and start-up of simple shear flow, stress relaxation after simple and reverse step strain experiments carried out in our laboratory.

Impeller Redesign of Multi-stage Centrifugal Pumps (다단 원심펌프 임펠러의 개량 수력설계)

  • Oh, JongSik;Kim, DongSoo
    • 유체기계공업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2001.11a
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    • pp.177-184
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    • 2001
  • For two kinds of the multi-stage centrifugal pump with diffuser vanes and return channel vanes the meanline performance prediction is applied to get information of hydraulic performance at each internal flow station, because only flange-to-flange test curves are available. As a first step of redesign fur higher efficiency, the impeller geometry is numerically investigated in the present study. Quasi-3D inviscid loading distributions are obtained, for the two impellers, using the state-of-the-art method of impeller 3D design, which provides a guide to optimal redesign. Full 3D turbulent flow fields are thereafter analyzed, using the specialized CFD code, to confirm the redesign results. The inherent limitation of the traditional graphic method of impeller design, which most of domestic pump manufacturers are now employing, is found.

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Opponent Move Prediction of a Real-time Strategy Game Using a Multi-label Classification Based on Machine Learning (기계학습 기반 다중 레이블 분류를 이용한 실시간 전략 게임에서의 상대 행동 예측)

  • Shin, Seung-Soo;Cho, Dong-Hee;Kim, Yong-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2020
  • Recently, many games provide data related to the users' game play, and there have been a few studies that predict opponent move by combining machine learning methods. This study predicts opponent move using match data of a real-time strategy game named ClashRoyale and a multi-label classification based on machine learning. In the initial experiment, binary card properties, binary card coordinates, and normalized time information are input, and card type and card coordinates are predicted using random forest and multi-layer perceptron. Subsequently, experiments were conducted sequentially using the next three data preprocessing methods. First, some property information of the input data were transformed. Next, input data were converted to nested form considering the consecutive card input system. Finally, input data were predicted by dividing into the early and the latter according to the normalized time information. As a result, the best preprocessing step was shown about 2.6% improvement in card type and about 1.8% improvement in card coordinates when nested data divided into the early.

Multiple aggregation prediction algorithm applied to traffic accident counts (다중 결합 예측 알고리즘을 이용한 교통사고 발생건수 예측)

  • Bae, Doorham;Seong, Byeongchan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.851-865
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    • 2019
  • Discovering various features from one time series is complicated. In this paper, we introduce a multi aggregation prediction algorithm (MAPA) that uses the concepts of temporal aggregation and combining forecasts to find multiple patterns from one time series and increase forecasting accuracy. Temporal aggregation produces multiple time series and each series has separate properties. We use exponential smoothing methods in the next step to extract various features of time series components in order to forecast time series components for each series. In the final step, we blend predictions of the same kind of components and forecast the target series by the summation of blended predictions. As an empirical example, we forecast traffic accident counts using MAPA and observe that MAPA performance is superior to conventional methods.

A Study on A Multi-Pulse Linear Predictive Filtering And Likelihood Ratio Test with Adaptive Threshold (멀티 펄스에 의한 선형 예측 필터링과 적응 임계값을 갖는 LRT의 연구)

  • Lee, Ki-Yong;Lee, Joo-Hun;Song, Iick-Ho;Ann, Sou-Guil
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.20-29
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    • 1991
  • A fundamental assumption in conventional linear predictive coding (LPC) analysis procedure is that the input to an all-pole vocal tract filter is white process. In the case of periodic inputs, however, a pitch bias error is introduced into the conventional LP coefficient. Multi-pulse (MP) LP analysis can reduce this bias, provided that an estimate of the excitation is available. Since the prediction error of conventional LP analysis can be modeled as the sum of an MP excitation sequence and a random noise sequence, we can view extracting MP sequences from the prediction error as a classical detection and estimation problem. In this paper, we propose an algorithm in which the locations and amplitudes of the MP sequences are first obtained by applying a likelihood ratio test (LRT) to the prediction error, and LP coefficients free of pitch bias are then obtained from the MP sequences. To verify the performance enhancement, we iterate the above procedure with adaptive threshold at each step.

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A Preliminary Study of Enhanced Predictability of Non-Parametric Geostatistical Simulation through History Matching Technique (히스토리매칭 기법을 이용한 비모수 지구통계 모사 예측성능 향상 예비연구)

  • Jeong, Jina;Paudyal, Pradeep;Park, Eungyu
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.56-67
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    • 2012
  • In the present study, an enhanced subsurface prediction algorithm based on a non-parametric geostatistical model and a history matching technique through Gibbs sampler is developed and the iterative prediction improvement procedure is proposed. The developed model is applied to a simple two-dimensional synthetic case where domain is composed of three different hydrogeologic media with $500m{\times}40m$ scale. In the application, it is assumed that there are 4 independent pumping tests performed at different vertical interval and the history curves are acquired through numerical modeling. With two hypothetical borehole information and pumping test data, the proposed prediction model is applied iteratively and continuous improvements of the predictions with reduced uncertainties of the media distribution are observed. From the results and the qualitative/quantitative analysis, it is concluded that the proposed model is good for the subsurface prediction improvements where the history data is available as a supportive information. Once the proposed model be a matured technique, it is believed that the model can be applied to many groundwater, geothermal, gas and oil problems with conventional fluid flow simulators. However, the overall development is still in its preliminary step and further considerations needs to be incorporated to be a viable and practical prediction technique including multi-dimensional verifications, global optimization, etc. which have not been resolved in the present study.

Development of an Unparalleled Shape Weld Nut Optimized by Forging Analysis Tool (단조 해석을 통한 비대칭 날개면 용접 너트의 최적 공정 설계)

  • Park, J.H.;Seo, J.Y.;Seol, J.Y.;Hwang, W.S.;Lee, K.H.;Kim, J.Y.
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.81-86
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    • 2018
  • In the cold forming process, it is not easy to fabricate a asymmetric type nut, due to the difficulty in the exact prediction of metal-flow. As we have identified, in that case, it often results in the various forging defects such as burrs, and an incomplete shape, as well as other problems because of this issue. In the current study, we introduce the development of an unparalleled shape Weld Nut by using a forging analysis tool (AFDEX). For the multi-forming machine, the optimized shapes of each intermediate product (step product) could be found by the use of a model for the prediction and analysis of various types, sizes and heights. Chiefly, forging tools were prepared based on the simulation results and an unparalleled shape could be prepared at one time without any burrs, incomplete shape and size.

A Study on Dynamic Analysis and Fatigue Life of the Belt in the OHT Vehicle (OHT 차량 벨트 동특성 및 피로 수명에 관한 연구)

  • Jung Il-Ho;Kim Chang-Su;Cho Dong-Hyeob;Park Joong-Kyung;Park Tae-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.29 no.8 s.239
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    • pp.1085-1092
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    • 2005
  • The OHT(Over Head Transportation) Vehicle transports heavy products quickly and repeatedly at the industrial workplace. The belt in the OHT vehicle is used to support the weight of the OHT Cage. The fatigue of the belt is caused by the dynamic load during the operation time. Since the fatigue fracture of the belt affects the safety at the workplace, the correct prediction of the dynamic load is necessary to calculate the fatigue life of the belt on the design step. In this paper a computer aided analysis method is proposed for the belt in the early design stage using dynamic analysis, stress analysis, belt tensile test, belt fatigue test and fatigue lift prediction method. From the dynamic load time histories and the stress of the belt FE model, a dynamic stress time history is produced. Using linear damage law and cycle counting method, fatigue life cycle is calculated. The method developed in this paper is used to reduce the time and cost for designing the OHT belt in different environment and condition.

Investigation of NO Formation Characteristics in Multi Staged Air Combustor (공기 다단 연소기 화염의 NO 발생특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Seok;An, Guk-Yeong;Baek, Seung-Uk;Yu, Myeong-Jong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.25 no.11
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    • pp.1594-1605
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    • 2001
  • In this study, a numerical simulation was developed which was capable of predicting the characteristics of NO formation in pilot scale combustor adopting the air-staged burner flame. The numerical calculation was constructed by means of establishing the mathematical models fur turbulence, turbulent combustion, radiation and turbulent nitric oxide chemistry. Turbulence was solved with standard k-$\xi$ model and the turbulent combustion model was incorporated using a two step reaction scheme together with an eddy dissipation model. The radiative transfer equation was calculated by means of the discrete ordinates method with the weighted sum of gray gases model for CO$_2$and H$_2$O. In the NO chemistry model, the chemical reaction rates for thermal and prompt NO were statistically averaged using the $\beta$ probability density function. The results were validated by comparison with measurements. For the experiment, a 0.2 MW pilot multi-air staged burner has been designed and fabricated. Only when the radiation was taken into account, the predicted gas temperature was in good agreement with the experimental one, which meant that the inclusion of radiation was indispensable for modeling multi-air staged gas flame. This was also true of the prediction of the NO formation, since it heavily depended on temperature. Subsequently, it was found that the multi-air staged combustion technique might be used as a practical tool in reducing the NO formation by controlling the peak flame temperature.

Performance Improvement on Adaptive OFDM System with a Multi-Step Channel Predictor over Mobile Fading Channels (이동 페이딩 채널하의 멀티 스텝 채널 예측기를 이용한 적응 OFDM 시스템의 성능개선)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Hyun-Dong;Choe, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.31 no.12A
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    • pp.1182-1188
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    • 2006
  • Adaptive OFDM(Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing) improves data capacity and system performance over multipath fading by adaptively changing modulation schemes according to channel state information(CSI). To achieve a good performance in adaptive OFDM systems, CSI should be transmitted from receiver to transmitter in real time through feedback channel. However, practically, the CSI feedback delay d which is the sum of the data processing delay and the propagation delay is not negligible and damages to the reliability of CSI such that the performance of adaptive OFDM is degraded. This paper presents an adaptive OFDM system with a multistep predictor on the frequency axis to effectively compensate the multiple feedback delays $d(\geq2)$. Via computer simulation we compare the proposed scheme and existing adaptive OFDM schemes with respect to data capacity and system performance.